Daily Market Analysis From Forexmart

Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by Andrea ForexMart, Aug 23, 2017.

  1. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    The main events by the morning: June 13

    The United States imposed sanctions against Mosbirzhi, NCC and NSD. Starting from June 13, the dollar and the euro will stop trading on the stock exchange – transactions will take place on the over-the-counter market. The Bank of Russia will set the official exchange rate based on bank reports and over-the-counter trading.

    The sanctions will not lead to a significant weakening of the ruble, limiting the fall to 10%. Bloomberg economists noted that in the event of a sharp drop in the exchange rate, the Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Finance will take measures to mitigate the shock by raising interest rates and increasing the supply of currency. It is also noted that the inflow of foreign currency to Russia through export-import channels will remain sufficient.

    The exchange-traded currency market in Russia has lost dollars and euros. The sanctions have deprived Russia of the main part of the foreign exchange market. In May, more than 51% of the trading volume was accounted for transactions with the dollar and the euro. Now such transactions will move to a less liquid and transparent over-the-counter market, and you will have to focus on the official exchange rate set by the Central Bank.

    The United States extended operations with the NCC until November 1. The United States has allowed energy-related transactions with the National Clearing Center (NCC) until November 1, despite sanctions against the Moscow Exchange. This decision includes transactions related to the extraction, processing, transportation and purchase of oil, petroleum products, natural gas and other energy resources.

    Sanctions against the Moscow Exchange undermine confidence in the dollar. New restrictions continue to reduce the importance of the dollar as an international means of payment and reserve currency.

    BRICS is developing a new monetary unit. The International Research Institute of Management Problems is working on the creation of a decentralized Unit system for settlements within the framework of the BRICS. The UNT coin will become the payment unit, which will help solve the problem of cross-border payments under sanctions.
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  2. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    Tech Leads Wall Street to Records, Nasdaq, S&P 500 High

    The Nasdaq and S&P 500 posted their fourth straight record closing high on Thursday, while Treasury yields fell to their lowest since early April. Investors reacted to lower-than-expected inflation data and a modest rate-cutting outlook from the Federal Reserve.

    The dollar strengthened against major currencies as the Fed's hawkish stance and the prospect of trade tensions between Europe and China sent European stocks sharply lower.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day slightly lower. The Labor Department reported that producer prices fell 0.2% in May from the previous month, though they rose 2.2% year-on-year, 20 basis points above the Fed's 2% inflation target.

    Separately, initial jobless claims hit a 10-month high. The data came after a weaker-than-expected consumer price index report on Wednesday and a revision to the Fed's forecasts, which now call for only one rate cut this year instead of three.

    "After a solid rally, markets are taking a bit of a break from yesterday's big news, and that's a good thing," said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, Neb. "We call it the calm after the storm — consolidating the gains we saw in the first half of June."

    Despite the Fed's hawkish rhetoric, expectations are growing that the central bank will cut rates for the first time as soon as September.

    According to CME's FedWatch tool, financial markets are pricing in a 60.5% chance of the Fed cutting its target rate by 25 basis points in September.

    "The Fed may sound hawkish, but they are dependent on economic data," Detrick said. "With today's positive PPI data, the market is thinking the Fed could ease if inflation continues to decline."

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 65.17 points, or 0.17%, to 38,647.04. The S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 12.71 points, or 0.23%, to 5,433.74, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 59.12 points, or 0.34%, to 17,667.56.

    The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record closing highs for the fourth straight session on Thursday, driven by a continued rally in tech stocks.

    The number of Americans filing new jobless claims last week, while another report showed an unexpected decline in producer prices in May, bolstering hopes for an early Fed rate cut.

    The Federal Reserve on Wednesday forecast only one rate cut this year, down from three quarter-percentage-point cuts in March.

    The S&P 500 tech sector (.SPLRCT) jumped 1.4% and the semiconductor index (.SOX) rose 1.5%, both hitting record closing highs.

    Broadcom (AVGO.O) shares soared 12.3% after raising its revenue forecast for chips used in artificial intelligence technology. The company also announced a 10-for-1 forward stock split.

    Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose 3.5%, while Apple (AAPL.O) rose 0.5%.

    Adobe (ADBE.O) shares rose more than 14% in after-hours trading after the software maker beat Wall Street's second-quarter revenue expectations. However, the stock was down 0.2% in the main session.

    New data released Wednesday showed that the consumer price index was unchanged in May for the first time in nearly two years, raising concerns among some investors that the economy could be slowing too much.

    The economically sensitive industrial sector (.SPLRCI) fell 0.6%, while the Russell 2000 small-cap index (.RUT) fell 0.9%.

    Tesla (TSLA.O) shares rose 2.9% after shareholders approved Elon Musk's $56 billion pay package.

    Trading volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.14 billion shares, below the 20-day average of 12.49 billion.

    European shares ended wider lower, with the auto sector particularly hard hit as investors worried about Beijing's retaliatory measures to the European Union's new tariffs on electric vehicles from China.

    The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) fell 1.31%, while MSCI's global share index (.MIWD00000PUS) lost 0.27%.

    Emerging market shares rose 0.64%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.67%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 0.40%.

    U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell on weak economic data.

    Benchmark 10-year notes rose 13/32, sending yields down to 4.2442% from 4.295% late Wednesday.

    30-year notes rose 27/32, sending yields down to 4.4% from 4.45% late Wednesday.

    The dollar index (.DXY) rose 0.53%, while the euro fell 0.64% to $1.0738.

    The Japanese yen weakened 0.22% against the greenback to hit $157.09 per dollar, while sterling was last at $1.2761, down 0.27% on the day.

    Oil prices edged up amid choppy trading, with supply growth and a delayed Fed rate cut offset by economic data.

    The price of U.S. crude oil rose 0.15% to $78.62 per barrel, while the price of Brent rose 0.18%, stopping at $82.75 per barrel.

    Gold prices fell amid a stronger dollar after the release of the PPI report, which was weaker than expected. Spot gold lost 0.8%, reaching $2,303.15 per ounce.
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  3. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    The main events by the morning: June 18

    The 1992 agreement on the avoidance of double taxation with Russia has been suspended. This was stated by the US Treasury Department. There is no exact information yet, but the measure may affect the W8-BEN form, which reduces the tax on Russian dividends from companies from the United States from 30% to 13%. The suspension will take effect on August 16, 2024.

    Sanctions on the Moscow Stock Exchange and its subsidiaries will not have a significant impact on the purchase by non-residents of blocked foreign securities of Russians, the Investment Chamber said. In fact, NSD was already under sanctions.

    Foreign flowers may disappear from the Russian market. Russia plans to impose restrictions on the import of flowers from unfriendly countries due to the Rosselkhoznadzor's claims to the quality of their products.

    Putin arrived in North Korea today. The Russian president ordered the signing of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement with the DPRK.

    Beer exports from the European Union to Russia are resuming. In April, the volume of beer exports to Russia amounted to 23 million euros, which is the highest since August last year.

    In the context of the recovery of global coal exports, Russia is losing its share in this market. According to the calculations of the Price Index Center, Russian exporters already account for less than 14.6% of global supplies, compared to 17.1% in 2021.
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  4. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    XAU/USD. Analysis and forecast. The price of gold has reached a new weekly high

    Gold has updated its weekly high today, aiming to break through the resistance of the 50-day simple moving average SMA. Incoming macro data from the US point to signs of easing inflationary pressures and a slowdown in the US economy, increasing speculation that the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year. This is a key factor stimulating flows towards the unyielding yellow metal.

    Plus, geopolitical tensions and renewed political uncertainty in Europe provide additional support for the precious metal as a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, the Fed took a more hawkish stance last week, and policymakers continue to favor one rate cut in 2024. A good jump in US Treasury bond yields is also helping to increase demand for the US dollar, which may deter further price growth of the precious metal.

    From a technical point of view, before opening new buy positions, bulls should still wait for a steady strengthening beyond the 50-day simple moving average SMA, which is currently around $2,345. The subsequent upward movement will mean that the recent corrective decline has exhausted itself, and the price will move beyond the $2,360 zone – into the supply zone, on the way to the $2,400 mark, with some intermediate obstacle in the $2,388 area. The momentum may extend further towards the historic high reached in May.

    On the opposite side, the $2320-2325 area protects against an immediate decline before the round level of $2300. Some subsequent selling below this level and the $2,285 support will be seen as a new trigger for the bears, paving the way for a resumption of the recent pullback from the all-time high. Gold will then be ready to accelerate its decline to the $2,250 level before dropping completely to the $2,220 support and the round $2,200 level.
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  5. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    From Record to Bust: How Chips and the Economy Shaped the S&P 500

    The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended lower Thursday as market leader Nvidia shares pulled back from earlier gains. Investors were poring over fresh economic data and Federal Reserve statements to see when interest rates might be cut this year.

    Earlier, the S&P 500 hit 5,500 for the first time in history, in line with many brokerage firms' year-end forecasts. The Nasdaq ended a seven-day run of record closing highs.

    Stocks on Wall Street retreated from early record highs despite gains in overseas benchmarks. U.S. Treasury yields rose on weak economic data and expectations of more bond issuance next week.

    The dollar gained ground as U.S. yields rose, widening the gap with non-dollar rates that have been trending lower. It reached 160 yen, prompting Tokyo to intervene in late April to support its currency.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the only major index to hold on to gains. The S&P 500 (.SPX) and Nasdaq (.IXIC) extended a streak of intraday record highs before falling, with the Nasdaq ending a seven-session run of record highs at the close.

    Disappointing housing starts and building permits data, as well as a report on jobless claims, suggest a gradual cooling in the labor market, confirming that the Fed's restrictive policies are having the intended effect.

    "Weaker-than-expected economic data suggests that high and long-term interest rates are achieving the Fed's goals," said Greg Bassuk, CEO of AXS Investments in New York. "These signs of a slight slowdown in the economy will be welcomed by the Fed as they consider lowering interest rates."

    That, coupled with the dovish sentiment expressed by the Bank of England, which has held off on easing ahead of the upcoming U.K. general election, and the Swiss National Bank's rate cut, has created room for the Fed to maneuver on the timing of its rate cuts.

    Wall Street's rally was fueled by enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, led by chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA.O), which recently became the world's most valuable company by market capitalization. However, despite the morning gains, Nvidia shares fell about 2%.

    Nvidia shares fell 3.54% after the morning gains. The chipmaker overtook Microsoft to become the world's most valuable public company on Tuesday.

    Dell (DELL.N) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O) shares also fell 0.42% and 0.26%, respectively, after initially rallying on news that Elon Musk's AI startup had won server orders.

    The number of Americans filing new jobless claims fell last week, but the latest data showed the total number of people receiving benefits reached its highest level since January, suggesting the U.S. labor market is continuing to cool.

    Separately, data showed that U.S. single-family home starts fell in May, reflecting continued high mortgage rates.

    The energy (.SPNY) and utilities (.SPLRCU) sectors were the biggest gainers among the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes, rising 1.86% and 0.89%, respectively, while the technology sector (.SPLRCT) led the declines.

    Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said it would take a year or two for inflation to return to 2% as wage growth remains high, raising concerns that interest rates will remain elevated for a long time.

    Money markets are pricing in a 58% chance of the U.S. central bank cutting rates by 25 basis points in September, according to LSEG FedWatch.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 299.90 points, or 0.77%, to 39,134.76. The S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 13.86 points, or 0.25%, to 5,473.17 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) fell 140.64 points, or 0.79%, to 17,721.59.

    Kroger (KR.N) shares fell 3.27% after the company expressed caution about near-term consumer spending while reiterating its full-year sales and profit forecasts despite beating first-quarter estimates.

    Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.O) shares fell 14.56%, weighed down by potential dilution after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved the company's application to resell certain shares and warrants, netting it about $247 million in proceeds.

    European stocks were strengthened by the technology and real estate sectors, as well as gains in Swiss stocks after the central bank continued to ease monetary policy.

    The STOXX 600 (.STOXX) index rose 0.93%, while the broader European FTSEurofirst 300 (.FTEU3) index rose 0.90%.

    The MSCI Worldwide Equity Index (.MIWD00000PUS) hit a record high but ended the day down 0.15% at 803.89.

    Emerging market stocks lost 0.06%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) ended the day down 0.16%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) rose 0.16%.

    U.S. Treasury yields initially fell after the economic data, then began to rise again.

    The market is eagerly awaiting an auction next week that will offer about $183 billion in two-, five- and seven-year U.S. Treasuries. Investors often sell Treasuries ahead of auctions to boost their yields and then buy them back at a lower price, a practice known as concessioning.

    The benchmark 10-year U.S. yield has risen 3.7 basis points since late Tuesday to 4.254%. The 30-year yield has risen 3.7 basis points to 4.3908%. The yield on the two-year note, which is typically correlated with interest rate expectations, rose 2.7 basis points to 4.7308%.

    The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and euro, rose 0.4% to 105.63, while the euro fell 0.34% to end the day at $1.0703.

    The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen to its highest since April 29, up 0.51% to 158.89 yen.

    The British pound fell to a five-week low against the dollar, down 0.43% to last trade at $1.2662.

    "When we talk about dollar strength, it feels like for the first time in a long time there's a divergence in global monetary policy... Fed spokespeople continue to talk about the need for patience and time," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth in New York.

    "The dollar is standing out in a weak competitive environment, particularly in Japan, which is making things worse," Hogan added.

    U.S. crude oil prices rose 0.74% to $82.17 a barrel, while Brent crude rose 0.75% to $85.71 a barrel.

    Spot gold rose 1.36% to $2,359.22 an ounce. U.S. gold futures rose 1.01% to $2,354.00 an ounce. In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin rose 0.27% to $65,029.00, while Ethereum fell 0.47% to $3,534.8.

    Declining issues outnumbered advancing issues on the NYSE by 1.03 to 1, with 248 new highs and 118 new lows.

    The S&P 500 posted 31 new 52-week highs and 6 new lows. The Nasdaq Composite posted 39 new highs and 217 new lows.

    Trading volume on U.S. exchanges totaled 11.98 billion shares, below the 20-day average of 13.51 billion shares.
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  6. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    As the West Changes Investing Course, the East Reacts with Indexes Rising

    The Dow hit a one-month high on Monday, while the Nasdaq fell more than 1% as investors switched from artificial intelligence stocks to laggards on expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.

    The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended lower as investors shifted away from tech stocks, whose overextended gains have fueled this year's rally. However, nine of the 11 major S&P 500 industries rose.

    Shares of Nvidia (NVDA.O) have fallen 6.68% in three sessions as observers noted profit-taking after last week's meteoric rise made the company the world's most valuable.

    Nvidia's decline triggered a sell-off in the tech sector, leading to significant losses. On Monday, the S&P 500 (.SPX) was down 0.3%, the Nasdaq (.IXIC) was down more than 1%, and the SOX semiconductor index (.SOX) lost more than 3%.

    Other chipmakers, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Broadcom (AVGO.O), Marvell Technology (MRVL.O) and Qualcomm (QCOM.O), fell 3.53% to 5.7%, leading the SOX index to fall 3.02%.

    "The market is selling some winners and buying some laggards," said Jack Janasiewicz, chief strategist at Natixis Investment Managers. "This is due to expectations of soft inflation data coming out on Friday."

    Tech (.SPLRCT) and consumer discretionary were the only sectors among the 11 S&P 500 indexes to decline, while energy led the gains, rising 2.73%.

    "There's a rotation into value sectors like financials, energy and utilities. Energy is also benefiting from a small jump in oil prices," said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research.

    Oil prices rose Monday, supporting gains in energy and oilfield services stocks.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) jumped to snap a five-day winning streak. The Russell 2000 small-cap index (.RUT) also hit a one-week high, signaling broader gains in the market.

    With the exception of Nvidia and other chipmakers, "the rest of the market is positive, expecting a soft landing," said Carl Ludvigson, managing director at Bel Air Investment Advisors.

    Investors are focused this week on Friday's PCE price index report, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, which is expected to show modest price pressures.

    Investors still expect two rate cuts this year, pricing in a 61% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September, according to FedWatch LSEG data. The Fed's latest forecast calls for one rate cut in December.

    San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly has said she doesn't think rates need to be cut until policymakers are confident that inflation is approaching 2%.

    The S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 15.73 points, or 0.29%, to end at 5,448.89. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) fell 190.19 points, or 1.09%, to 17,499.17. The Dow rose 257.99 points, or 0.66%, to 39,408.32.

    Other big stories this week include durable goods data, weekly jobless claims, final first-quarter GDP data and a year-over-year rebound in the Russell Index. There will also be some quarterly earnings reports.

    President Joe Biden and his Republican rival Donald Trump will debate in Atlanta on Thursday, which could impact the outcome of the November election, which polls show is neck-and-neck.

    Meta Platforms (META.O) shares rose after a report that the Facebook parent is discussing integrating its generative AI model into Apple's (AAPL.O) new iPhone AI system. Apple shares also rose.

    RXO (RXO.N) announced plans to buy United Parcel Service (UPS.N) and launch a new unit, Coyote Logistics, for $1.025 billion.

    Advance stocks outnumbered decliners 2.25-to-1 on the New York Stock Exchange, with 179 new highs and 48 new lows.

    The S&P 500 posted 35 new 52-week highs and one new low, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 49 new highs and 128 new lows. Trading volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.94 billion shares, below the 11.92 billion average over the past 20 trading days.

    European stocks may see some recovery on Tuesday after their rally earlier in the week.

    The tech loss has turned into a gain in value, as seen in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI), which is up 0.7%.

    This rotation has also become relevant in Asia. For example, AI-related stocks on Japan's Nikkei 225, such as SoftBank Group (9984.T), are retreating from their highs, while money is returning to the battered Toyota Motor (7203.T).

    The positive news for investors is the overall gain in Asia-Pacific stock indices. Among the major indices, only tech-heavy Taiwan (.TWII) showed a decline. While the Nikkei (.N225) is up just half a percent, the Topix (.TOPX) is up almost 1.5%.

    Geopolitics also requires attention. The mood could change quickly ahead of the first round of snap elections in France this weekend. So far, the far-right's efforts have been effective in calming fears of financial restraint.

    As a result, the euro has rebounded sharply to $1.0740 after falling to $1.0671 on Friday.

    Also worth watching is the European Commission's evolving relationship with Apple and China. Beijing is calling on the EU to scrap proposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports before they come into effect on July 4, and Chinese officials are seeking a compromise in talks in Brussels this week.

    Apple needs to change how its App Store works or face large antitrust fines.
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  7. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    Wall Street: Modest gains, choppy trading ahead of inflation data

    The major U.S. stock indexes ended Wednesday slightly higher after choppy trading. Investors took a wait-and-see approach ahead of the presidential debate and a key inflation report closely watched by Federal Reserve officials.

    "We're in a holding pattern as we wait for Friday's PCE report for more data," said Michael Green, portfolio manager at Simplify.

    Shares of chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose 0.25%, ending the session higher after earlier losses. Large-cap names such as Apple (AAPL.O), Amazon (AMZN.O) and Tesla (TSLA.O) also saw their shares rise.

    A flurry of economic data is due out this week, culminating in Friday's Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge and a key driver of monetary policy decisions.

    The Federal Reserve is forecasting one interest rate cut in December. However, investors are pricing in a 56.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, according to LSEG's Interest Rate Probabilities app, and expecting about two cuts by the end of the year.

    By 4 p.m., the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) was up 16.10 points, or 0.04%, to 39,128.26. The S&P 500 (.SPX) was up 8.61 points, or 0.16%, to 5,477.91, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) was up 87.50 points, or 0.49%, to 17,805.16.

    "Investors are holding off for now, waiting for tomorrow's presidential debate and more economic data, especially Friday's PCE report," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.

    Strong earnings reports and favorable inflation data could fuel a shift away from tech stocks and into sectors that have underperformed this year, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group.

    Investors have been flocking to non-tech sectors this week.

    "We're likely to see continued volatility until we get a catalyst," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Wealth Management.

    Shares in appliance maker Whirlpool (WHR.N) rose 17.1% after news broke that German engineering group Robert Bosch may buy the company.

    FedEx (FDX.N) shares soared 15.53% after the company announced that its fiscal 2025 profit forecast would beat expectations, sending the Dow Jones Transport (.DJT) to its highest level in more than a month.

    Apple (AAPL.O) shares rose nearly 2% after analysts at Rosenblatt upgraded the iPhone maker's stock to buy from neutral. Meanwhile, Tesla shares rose 4.81% after Stifel began coverage of the company with a buy rating.

    Amazon.com Inc's (AMZN.O) market value reached $2 trillion for the first time on Wednesday, becoming the fifth U.S. company to do so. Optimism about artificial intelligence and expectations of possible interest rate cuts this year have fueled demand for tech stocks.

    Amazon shares rose 3.4% to $192.70, pushing the e-commerce giant's market value past $2 trillion. That puts it in line with tech giants Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O), Apple Inc (AAPL.O), Nvidia Corp (NVDA.O) and Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O).

    Shares of Amazon, which were added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) in February, have gained more than 26% year to date. In February, the company became the fifth-largest U.S. company by market value after Nvidia climbed one spot.

    Amazon Web Services, the world's largest cloud services provider, has seen growth again after a slump last year, thanks to accelerated adoption of artificial intelligence technologies.

    Amazon has also invested in AI startup Anthropic and robotics company Fig, looking to capitalize on the rapidly growing interest in artificial intelligence.

    Late last year, Amazon unveiled a new generation of custom-designed data center chips that are aimed at machine learning and generative AI applications.

    Shares of major U.S. banks including Morgan Stanley (MS.N), Citigroup (C.N) and Bank of America (BAC.N) fell ahead of the Federal Reserve's annual stress test results.

    The broader S&P 500 (.SPSY) fell 0.47%.

    Rivian (RIVN.O) shares rose 23.24% after German automaker Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) announced plans to invest up to $5 billion in the U.S. electric vehicle maker.

    General Mills (GIS.N) shares fell 4.59% after the Cheerios cereal maker reported below-expected full-year profit and a bigger-than-expected drop in quarterly sales.

    Declining stocks outnumbered advancing stocks on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) by a 1.41-to-1 ratio. Overall, the NYSE posted 106 new highs and 89 new lows.

    The S&P 500 posted 10 new 52-week highs and 6 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 41 new highs and 171 new lows.

    Trading volume on U.S. exchanges totaled 10.59 billion shares, below the 20-day average of 11.83 billion shares.
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  8. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    The main thing in the morning: June 28

    LNG supplies from the United States to Europe have declined sharply, which could cause a serious blow to the EU economy. Since the beginning of 2024, the volume of liquefied natural gas supplies from the United States has decreased by about a third. Given the current sanctions against Arctic LNG-2 and possible restrictions on other Russian plants, the situation may lead to a shortage of gas.

    The first debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden took place. CNN organized the presidential candidates' election debate, where the former president and the current president refused to shake hands. The main focus was on the conflict in Ukraine: Biden warned that Moscow's capture of Kiev could provoke World War III, and Trump blamed Biden for the situation.

    The Estonian Parliament will not be able to help the government in confiscating frozen Russian assets. The fact is that there is no property in the country that is subject to automatic confiscation in favor of Ukraine. According to the Estonian Foreign Ministry, property worth €37-39 million was blocked in the country.

    The IMF forecasts the growth of the US national debt to 140% of GDP by 2032. The organization's report highlights the need to urgently stop the growth of borrowing, as the US budget deficit remains at 2.5% of GDP. This creates increasing problems for the global economy.

    NOVATEK continues to build Arctic LNG 2 despite the severe pressure of sanctions. The foundation of the second line and the first structures will begin to be laid on July 23-25. The previously imposed sanctions led to a big shift in the launch schedule of Arctic LNG 2 and the cancellation of the construction of 1 of the 3 lines. Problems with LNG tankers are added to this.
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  9. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    Trump in Focus: Markets Assess Impact, Bonds Fall, Dollar Steady

    The dollar was flat on Monday, while long-term U.S. Treasury yields rose as investors weighed whether an assassination attempt on presidential candidate Donald Trump could boost his chances of winning.

    European stock markets opened lower after weak economic data from China left a cautious mood. Additionally, negative news from British luxury brand Burberry and watchmaker Swatch Group raised questions about consumer confidence.

    Investors typically react to the prospect of a Trump victory by pushing up Treasury yields, assuming his economic policies will lead to higher inflation and government debt.

    On online betting platform PredictIT, the odds of a Republican victory rose to 67 cents, up from 60 cents on Friday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 2 basis points to 4.208% on Monday.

    Eren Osman, managing director of asset management at Arbuthnot Latham, said a possible Trump victory would be viewed positively for risk assets. He pointed to the significant gains in Bitcoin since the weekend, but added a note of caution.

    "You could imagine that this would motivate Trump supporters to go to the polls, but they were probably planning to vote anyway," Osman said.

    U.S. retail sales data due on Tuesday will be closely watched to understand the health of the consumer sector after recent readings suggested economic growth was slowing, the expert said.

    The dollar index rose modestly to 104.9, helped by the greenback's strength against the yen, which rose 0.17% to 157.855 after last week's intervention was expected.

    The euro was down slightly at $1.0907, while Bitcoin, which has likely benefited from looser regulation under the Trump administration, rose about 5% to a two-week high.

    European stocks were down 0.2% (STOXX), while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were up about half a percent. Japan's Nikkei was closed for a holiday.

    The weak economic data set off a busy week in China, where the five-yearly meeting of top officials is taking place from July 15 to 18.

    China's second-quarter economic growth was 4.7% from a year earlier, short of analysts' forecast of 5.1%. Consumer spending is a particular concern, with retail sales growth falling to an 18-month low and new home prices falling at their fastest pace in nine years.

    "Markets are hoping for more support for the weak economy and struggling property sector to be announced at this week's plenary," said Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC in Singapore.

    China's onshore yuan remained under pressure, trading at 7.2742 per dollar. Mainland Chinese shares (.SSEC) were little changed, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) was down 1.5%.

    The week will see data on retail sales, industrial production, housing starts and weekly jobless claims released in the United States.

    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at the Economic Club of Washington on Monday, where his response to the recent muted inflation data is likely to be discussed.

    Markets are pricing in a 96% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, up from 72% a week earlier.

    The European Central Bank is expected to leave its current interest rate unchanged after cutting it in June.

    "We expect the ECB to keep rates on hold at its July meeting, with a press conference to discuss the rate trajectory and the situation in France," Morgan Stanley said in a note.

    The second-quarter earnings season kicked off last week and continues on Monday with Goldman Sachs' earnings results.

    Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, ASML and Netflix Inc. are also set to report earnings this week. Wall Street is expecting strong results for the period, with most of those expectations already factored into current stock valuations.

    In commodities markets, gold traded at $2,408 an ounce, slightly below last week's high of $2,424.

    Oil prices edged higher after Friday's slide on signs of progress in ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas.

    Brent crude was little changed at $85.04 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 0.1% to $82.27 a barrel.

    Fed Chair Powell to Speak

    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be interviewed by David Rubenstein at the Economic Club of Washington, followed by a question-and-answer session.

    In his final appearance on Capitol Hill, Powell emphasized the Fed's efforts to combat inflation and reaffirmed its commitment to its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.

    He also expressed cautious optimism about inflation trends, indicating some confidence that inflation will decline toward the 2% target. However, Powell stressed that it is too early to say whether the trend toward the 2% inflation target will be sustainable.
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  10. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    Investors lift market on Trump, rate cuts

    Wall Street ended higher on Monday, extending Friday's gains, as expectations grew for a second term for Donald Trump after a failed assassination attempt raised hopes for looser regulation.

    Expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut its key interest rate as early as September also helped boost risk appetite among investors.

    While all three major U.S. stock indexes closed well below their intraday highs, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record close.

    Small, economically sensitive stocks (.RUT) and transportation stocks (.DJT) have outperformed the broader market.

    The assassination attempt on Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, on Saturday in Pennsylvania appears to have boosted his chances of being elected.

    A Trump presidency is expected to usher in more aggressive trade policies, further tax cuts, and deregulation in areas ranging from climate change to cryptocurrencies.

    "The main event — the assassination attempt on Donald Trump — hasn't quite hit its mark," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York. "GDP forecasts are unchanged, expectations for a Fed rate cut in September are unchanged, and corporate earnings are ahead of expectations."

    "So the market momentum remains driven by investor optimism," Stovall added.

    Investor sentiment was also supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin a rate-cutting cycle as early as September, with as many as three cuts possible before the end of the year.

    "A rate cut in September is virtually guaranteed," said Ross Mayfield, an analyst at Baird Investment Strategy in Louisville, Kentucky. "We're in the same position we were seven months ago, which is the promise of a Fed rate cut without the risk of a recession. But there's still a lot riding on the Fed's actions."

    Speaking to the Economic Club of Washington, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his confidence that the U.S. economy can avoid a recession, with recent data showing progress in bringing inflation back to the central bank's 2% target.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 210.82 points, or 0.53%, to 40,211.72. The S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 15.87 points, or 0.28%, to 5,631.22, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) rose 74.12 points, or 0.40%, to 18,472.57.

    Among the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, energy stocks (.SPNY) posted the biggest percentage gains, while utilities (.SPLRCU) lagged.

    Goldman Sachs (GS.N) more than doubled its second-quarter profit, beating analysts' expectations on solid performance in debt insurance and fixed-income trading. The brokerage's shares rose 2.6%.

    Macy's Inc (MN) shares fell 11.7% after the department store ended buyout talks with Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital.

    The prospect of a second term for Donald Trump sent shares of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.O) soaring 31.4%.

    Cryptocurrency stocks also saw significant gains, with Coinbase Global (COIN.O), Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA.O) and Riot Platforms (RIOT.O) all rising between 11.4% and 18.3%.

    Other stocks that would likely benefit from a possible second Trump term also saw gains, with gun maker Smith & Wesson (SWBI.O) and correctional facility operator GEO Group (GEO.N) up 11.4% and 9.3%, respectively.

    Meanwhile, solar energy stocks fell as the prospect of a Trump election dampened expectations for U.S. renewable energy subsidies. Sunrun (RUN.O) and SolarEdge Technologies (SEDGO.O) fell 9.0% and 15.4%, respectively.

    U.S.-listed Chinese stocks also fell on concerns about tighter trade restrictions under the new Trump administration. The iShares China Largecap ETF fell 2.2%.

    On the New York Stock Exchange, gainers outnumbered losers 1.35-to-1; on the Nasdaq, gainers outnumbered losers 1.50-to-1.

    The S&P 500 posted 65 new 52-week highs and four new lows.

    The Nasdaq Composite Index posted 203 new highs and 33 new lows. Trading volume on U.S. exchanges totaled 11.07 billion shares, slightly below the 20-day average of 11.59 billion shares.

    Long-term U.S. bond yields rose on speculation that Trump's policies will lead to higher government debt and inflation. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency stocks rose along with Bitcoin as Trump casts himself as a cryptocurrency advocate.

    Investors expect a Trump victory to lead to further tax cuts and regulatory easing. The energy-heavy S&P 500 (.SPNY) gained 1.6%.

    Traders are also betting on a second and possibly third rate cut by December.

    The MSCI Global Equity Index (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.18 points, or 0.02%, to 828.73, while the STOXX 600 Index (.STOXX) fell 1.02%.

    Bad news from British luxury giant Burberry, with a CEO replacement and dividend suspension, and a 14.3% revenue decline at Swiss watchmaker Swatch Group, raised questions about consumer confidence.

    The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, was down 0.04% at 104.25, while the euro was down 0.01% at $1.0893. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar was up 0.02% at 158.04.

    The dollar fell to 157.15 during Powell's speech, its lowest since June 17, before recovering.

    Bitcoin was up slightly after earlier hitting a three-week high of $63,838.86.

    The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose 4 basis points to 4.229%, while the yield on two-year Treasuries fell half a basis point to 4.4554%.

    Oil prices were slightly lower as concerns about demand in China, the world's largest importer, offset support from OPEC+ supply cuts and ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

    U.S. crude was down 30 cents at $81.91 a barrel, while Brent crude was down 18 cents at $84.85 a barrel.
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