Daily Market Analysis From Forexmart

EUR spreading its wings

By the end of this week, the euro has regained confidence and managed to recoup some of its earlier losses. While the euro has once again found bullish momentum and showed an uptrend, it has not managed to dethrone the US dollar.

Nevertheless, the euro has recouped earlier losses and is aiming for new heights. The euro's rise was aided by the ECB's decision to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in response to declining inflation in the eurozone and growing concerns about a possible economic slowdown in the reurozone. On Thursday, September 12, the ECB cut the key interest rate by 60 basis points, down to 3.65%. Analysts noted that this is the second rate cut in the past three months, following the first reduction by 25 basis points in June, the first since 2019. The deposit rate was also lowered by 25 basis points to 3.5%, and the marginal lending rate was slashed by 60 basis points to 3.9%.

Thursday's decision to reduce the ECB's base deposit rate came amid expectations that the Federal Reserve would begin lowering borrowing costs next week. Time will tell how accurate these expectations are. The ECB's rate cuts have been closely linked to inflation in the eurozone, which slowed to a three-year low of 2.2% in August. In July, this figure stood at 2.6%. A drop in industrial output in Germany and Italy has raised concerns about a potential slowdown in the eurozone economy after a brief period of growth recorded in early 2024.

Domestic inflation in eurozone countries remains high as wages continue to rise at an accelerated pace. However, pressure on labor costs is easing, and profits are partially offsetting the impact of higher wages on inflation, according to the ECB. The central bank's latest report included both hawkish and dovish remarks. On one hand, the ECB stated that financing conditions remain restrictive and economic activity is low. On the other hand, changes were noted, as policymakers revised their inflation forecasts upward. Many experts defined this approach as hawkish.

Current macroeconomic data on inflation in the EU aligns with expectations and confirms previous ECB forecasts. It is expected that average inflation in the eurozone will be 2.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2026. The ECB's Governing Council is committed to ensuring inflation returns to the target of 2% in a timely manner. To achieve this, the ECB plans to keep rates "sufficiently restrictive" for as long as needed.

Against this backdrop, the EUR/USD pair exhibited mixed dynamics, sometimes stalling and then slightly retreating. Following the ECB's rate decision, the pair's momentum shifted upward. As a result, the euro made notable gains, slightly pushing back the dollar. On Friday, September 13, the EUR/USD pair was trading around 1.1082, having regained a significant portion of its losses and aiming for new peaks. The single currency has since strived to maintain the stability it gained after the ECB's decision.

In its updated quarterly forecasts, the ECB expects the region's economy to grow by 0.8% in 2024, slightly below the June estimate of 0.9%, experts highlight. Furthermore, the ECB also revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast down to 1.3% from 1.4%. The reason, according to ECB representatives, is "weaker domestic demand in the coming quarters." The central bank also maintained its inflation forecast for this year at 2.5%, and for next year at 2.2%.

According to Christine Lagarde, the ECB president, there is a "mixed picture on inflation" in the eurozone, which continues to be driven by rising wages, despite easing pressure on labor costs. "Importantly, the ECB's track record for predicting inflation growth is limited. Therefore, the regulator wants to be certain about the accuracy of its decisions before proceeding with more aggressive rate cuts," analysts at ING assert.

Currently, the recovery of the European economy faces unfavorable factors. In this context, easing monetary policy restrictions should support the economy, Lagarde believes. According to the ECB president, the key upward risks for inflation are wages, profits, and trade tensions. September inflation data will likely be low, but inflation could rise again in the fourth quarter of 2024, the ECB forecasts.

In the current situation, currency strategists at Morgan Stanley expect quarterly deposit rate cuts of 25 basis points through the end of 2025. If this scenario plays out, the rate will drop to 2.25% by the end of next year, experts note. This scenario could weaken the euro and strengthen the dollar, Morgan Stanley adds. Continued pressure on the EUR/USD pair could threaten the euro's dynamics, potentially bringing it to parity with the dollar.
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IT giants on the rise: how Microsoft and Intel changed the picture against the backdrop of a stable S&P 500

Stock market froze in anticipation: investors prepare for the Fed's steps
US stock indices ended trading on Tuesday almost at the same level, giving up the previously reached heights that had earlier allowed the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average to update their historical maximums. The reason for such caution was the expectation of the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 4.5 years.

S&P 500 rise and fresh economic data
During the trading session, the S&P 500 index briefly rose to 5670.81, which was facilitated by fresh data on the US economy. The data allayed fears of a sharp slowdown in the country's economy.

The Commerce Department reported that retail sales unexpectedly increased in August, despite a decline in auto dealership revenue. That decline was more than offset by a surge in online sales, which helped the economy remain stable for much of the third quarter.

The economy is growing, but not very fast
Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise Financial Services in Troy, Michigan, said expectations for the economy were fairly optimistic even before the latest data were released. He said the economy is growing, but growth remains relatively slow.

"Today's economic data confirms that we are in an expansionary environment, although it is not as fast as we would like," Price said.

Fears about inflation and the Fed's actions
Price added that the upcoming rate cut could have a dual effect. It will either increase inflation fears or raise new questions about whether the Fed's measures are fast and decisive enough to prevent a recession.

"Today's trading session shows a move away from historical highs, as tomorrow may bring disappointment for some investors," the expert concluded.

This day showed that the markets are in a state of anticipation: all attention is focused on the Federal Reserve's further actions and their possible impact on the US economy.

Mild changes, big expectations: Dow Jones slightly down, S&P and Nasdaq up
Trading on US stock exchanges on Tuesday ended with minimal changes: the Dow Jones Industrial Average index fell by 15.90 points (0.04%) to 41,606.18, and the S&P 500 rose by 1.49 points (0.03%) and reached 5,634.58. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite added 35.93 points, or 0.20%, to close at 17,628.06.

Investors are keeping a close eye on the Fed's decision
According to CME's FedWatch tool, the odds of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points after its two-day meeting on Wednesday are now priced at 65% by the market. Just a week ago, the odds were just 34%, reflecting investor expectations fluctuating amid economic uncertainty.

Microsoft Strengthens Its Position
One of the key drivers of the S&P 500's gains was Microsoft's 0.88% gain in shares. The tech giant emerged victorious after its board approved a $60 billion share buyback program and raised its quarterly dividend by 10%. Such moves have bolstered investor confidence in the stability and future success of the AI leader.

Blue Chips and Russell 2000 in Focus
The Dow Jones, despite a slight decline, continued to surprise, with the index hitting intraday record highs for two days in a row. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 index, which tracks small-cap companies, was the best performer among the major indices, gaining 0.74% for the session. The gain can be attributed to investors' expectations that the Federal Reserve's rate cut will favor smaller companies.

Energy Leads, Healthcare Stumbles
The energy sector of the S&P 500 was the best performer among the 11 major sectors, gaining 1.41%. This happened against the backdrop of rising oil prices, which spurred oil stocks. At the same time, health care was the day's loser, falling 1.01%, becoming the weakest sector in the index. Investors continue to watch equity markets cautiously as they weigh the chances of further Federal Reserve action and its possible impact on economic growth prospects.

Intel Strengthens Its Positions, Amazon Supports Growth
One of the key events on the stock market on Tuesday was the rise of Intel shares by 2.68%. This growth was due to the conclusion of an agreement with Amazon Web Services, a division of Amazon's cloud services, which became an Intel client for the production of individual chips used in the development of artificial intelligence. Amazon shares also showed positive dynamics, adding 1.08%.

The market is generally positive
Data on the results of trading on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq showed that the number of shares that rose in price exceeded the number of shares that fell in price. On the NYSE, this ratio was 1.55 to 1, and on Nasdaq - 1.25 to 1. This indicates the prevalence of positive sentiment among investors.

New Highs on the Back of Stable Trading Volume
The S&P 500 index showed 48 new 52-week highs, while not a single new low was recorded. The Nasdaq Composite saw more significant changes, with 147 new highs and 68 new lows. Total volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.23 billion shares, slightly below the 20-day average of 10.74 billion.

Labor Market Impact and Fed Rate Outlook
The labor market slowdown seen over the summer, as well as recent media reports, have raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will take more decisive action at its meeting on Wednesday. In particular, a 0.5% rate cut is looking increasingly likely as the Fed seeks to avoid weakening the economy.

Economic Data Suggests Caution
Meanwhile, the latest U.S. economic data showed that retail sales increased in August and factory activity began to recover again. These stronger numbers may ease the pressure for an aggressive rate cut, but the market is still looking for decisive action from the Fed.

Stock markets remain tense as investors weigh the impact of positive economic data on the Fed's likely actions to maintain economic stability.

Economy on the rise: Fed on the cusp of a major decision
"The current data points to a healthy economy," said Peter Cardillo, chief economist at Spartan Capital Securities. He expects Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to decide on a 25 basis point cut at his meeting on Wednesday. However, the Fed's next steps will depend on how the economy evolves, which Powell is likely to hint at in his speech.

Cautious steps or more aggressive policy?
Cardillo noted that the Fed may consider a more aggressive approach at future meetings, but will proceed with caution for now. "They will start with small steps, but they may take more decisive measures as they go along," the expert added.

Traders place bets on the Fed's decision
As they await the Fed's decision, markets continue to make predictions. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 63% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points and a 37% chance that it will cut by 25 basis points.

Global indices and the dollar are stable
The MSCI All-World Index, which tracks global markets, showed a modest gain of 0.04%, reaching 828.72, reflecting stable sentiment in global stock markets ahead of the Fed's key decisions.

Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened against its major counterparts, rising 0.28% to 100.98 in a basket of currencies. The dollar also showed solid gains against the Japanese yen, rising 1.19% to 142.29.

Focus on the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan
It's not just the Fed that has investors' attention this week. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are also scheduled to meet to discuss their monetary policy. However, unlike the Fed, these regulators are expected to keep interest rates at current levels.

Disappointment is inevitable?
Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise Financial Services, commented on the current market sentiment. "Today's trading shows that we are on the brink of a major decision. Tomorrow, some investors are likely to face disappointment," Price said.

All eyes are on tomorrow's Fed meeting, which could set the tone for future economic developments both in the U.S. and globally.

U.S. Treasury yields rise
The yield on two-year U.S. Treasuries, a gauge of short-term interest rate expectations, rose 4.4 basis points to 3.5986%, after falling to a two-year low of 3.528% in the previous session. The 10-year yield also rose, rising 2.3 basis points to 3.644%, up from 3.621% late Monday.

China's economy remains a concern
Asian markets were weighed down by China's fragile economic recovery. The latest data released over the weekend showed industrial output growth slowed to a five-month low in August, while retail sales and new home prices continued to decline, adding uncertainty to the recovery picture in the region's largest economy.

Oil prices rise amid hurricane
Oil prices rose as the industry continues to analyze the impact of Hurricane Francine, which has affected oil production in the US Gulf of Mexico. US crude oil rose 1.57% to $71.19 per barrel. Brent crude ended the day at $73.7 per barrel, up 1.31%. The gains were due to uncertainty surrounding the recovery of oil production in the region following the natural disaster.

Gold slips after record gains
Despite spot gold hitting a record high on Monday, prices corrected lower on Tuesday. Gold fell 0.51% to $2,569.51 per ounce. The decline followed a strong rally earlier in the week, but gold remains an important indicator of market sentiment, reflecting demand for safe havens amid global uncertainty. Economic dynamics around the world, including the US and China, continue to impact markets, causing swings in bond yields, oil and gold prices.
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Surprise Reversal: Fed Cuts Rates, Markets Fall, Indexes Lose Ground

Volatile Trading Ends Down
US stock indexes closed with minor losses on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points, the upper limit of expectations for the first rate change in four years. Investors were expecting the Fed's move, but their reactions to the decision were mixed.

Short-Term Market Fluctuations
The trading session was jittery. The S&P 500 had been moving up and down, showing little change, before the Fed's decision. After the rate cut was announced, the index rose 1%, but then weakened again and closed with losses. The Dow Jones index saw similar swings, reaching an intraday high, but then, like the S&P 500, ending the day lower.

The Fed is betting on inflation and the labor market
The Federal Reserve justified its decision by citing "high confidence" that inflation is moving toward its 2% target. The Fed's policy focus now is on maintaining the resilience of the labor market, which remains the focus of economists. The half-percentage-point rate cut was a key step in that direction.

"The Fed has signaled that they are serious about cutting rates by 50 basis points and will likely continue to do so through the end of the year," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Wisconsin. In his opinion, such a move indicates the Fed's intention to stabilize the unemployment rate at 4.4% and return inflation to target levels.

Market expectations: from 25 to 50 basis points
Over the past few days, markets have been unable to decide on the forecasts for the size of the rate cut. According to the FedWatch tool from CME, the probability of a 25 basis point cut was estimated at 65% last week. However, by the time the Fed's decision was announced on Wednesday, the probability of a larger 50 basis point cut had already reached 57%.

Minor losses amid expectations of rate cuts
US stock indices ended trading in the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 103.08 points, which amounted to 0.25%, ending the day at 41,503.10. The S&P 500 lost 16.32 points, or 0.29%, to close at 5,618.26. The Nasdaq Composite also lost ground, losing 54.76 points, or 0.31%, to 17,573.30.

Markets Betting on More Rate Cuts
Investors in the market are already bracing for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by at least 25 basis points at its November meeting. In fact, analysts are predicting a 35% chance that the Fed could cut rates by as much as 50 basis points.

Markets Hunger for More
"What amazes me is that even when markets get what they think they want, their appetites continue to grow," said Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers in Connecticut. He points out that despite expectations, stocks are not showing significant growth after the news, which may be due to the fact that the good news is already partially priced in after the previous seven-day rally.

Historically high borrowing costs
Recall that the cost of borrowing in the US has reached record levels in the last two decades, starting in July 2023, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 5.25% to 5.50% to combat inflation. This was the latest increase in a series of Fed decisions aimed at slowing inflationary pressures.

Fed Chairman's statement: No urgency to act
After the latest rate cut, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that there is no immediate need for urgent action. This statement indicates a more cautious approach to further changes in monetary policy, which signals a stabilization of the pace of rate cuts.

Small Caps Take the Lead
Small-cap stocks, traditional winners in a low-interest-rate environment, showed solid gains. The Russell 2000 index, which tracks such stocks, rose 2.44% on the day, though it ended the day with a modest gain of 0.04%. That performance allowed it to outperform the larger-cap indices.

Regional banks gain strength
Regional banks, which have been under pressure from high interest rates in recent times, have also shown a recovery. The KBW index, which tracks their activity, jumped 3.53% during trading and ended the session with a gain of 0.46%. This growth shows that banks are adapting to changing market conditions.

Records as the economy stabilizes
Stock markets have shown significant gains in 2023, with all three key indices reaching record highs. Lower inflation and signs of a cooling labor market have inspired confidence that the period of high interest rates may gradually end, supporting optimism among investors.

Intuitive Machines shares soar 38% after NASA contract
One of the market's top gainers was Intuitive Machines, which rose an impressive 38.3%. The jump came after the announcement of a $4.8 billion contract with NASA to provide navigation services for space missions, boosting investor interest.

Market Balance: Stocks Advancing Outperform
On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), advancers outpaced decliners by a 1.14-to-1 ratio, while on the Nasdaq the ratio was 1.36-to-1, showing that positive sentiment remains despite volatility.

Record Performances for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq
The S&P 500 has posted 43 new highs over the past 52 weeks and no new lows. The Nasdaq Composite has been even more impressive, with 165 new highs and 69 new lows, underscoring investor confidence in the upside.

Trading volume exceeded average
Trading activity on US exchanges was also above average. The volume of transactions amounted to 11.63 billion shares, which is higher than the average of 10.82 billion shares over the past 20 trading days.

Unexpected rate cut
The US central bank went for a more significant cut in the overnight rate than expected, reducing it by 0.5%, as opposed to the traditional 0.25%. This decision is based on the regulator's confidence that inflation will continue to move towards the target level of 2%. The new rate, which determines how much banks pay each other for short-term loans, is now in the range of 4.75%-5.00%, which is in line with market expectations.

Stock market reaction: short-term growth
After the Federal Reserve's announcement, the S&P 500 index initially rose by 1%, but then lost momentum and ended the day 0.29% lower, stopping at 5618.26. The move shows that despite investors' positive expectations, the market is not ready for a sharp rally.

Seven-day rally — the effect has been priced in
"While markets got what they wanted, stocks have yet to see a significant rally. After seven straight days of gains, a lot of the positive news has already been priced in," said Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers. His comment underscores the sentiment among market participants who may have expected more from the rate cuts.

Record rates amid slowing inflation
The overnight rate was at its highest since July 2023, when the Fed continued to fight inflation with rate hikes. That made borrowing costs the highest in two decades, putting pressure on both consumers and businesses.

Global markets also felt pressure
The MSCI World Equity Index hit a new high during the session but was unable to hold on, falling 0.29% to 826.29, reflecting the global reaction to the Fed's move and uncertainty about where markets are headed.

The dollar rose slightly after weakening
The dollar index, which tracks the value of the US currency against major global currencies such as the yen and euro, initially weakened on the news of the rate cut. However, it later strengthened slightly, rising 0.07% to 100.98, reflecting volatility in currency markets and investors' eagerness to adapt to the new monetary policy.

Investors await further developments
While the Federal Reserve's actions were in line with expectations for many market participants, the reaction to the rate cut was muted, indicating that investors are still weighing the longer-term implications and potential future moves by the regulator.
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XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the price of gold is retreating from a new all-time high around the $2,640

The increase in U.S. Treasury yields is helping to revive demand for U.S. dollars, leading to some profit-taking in gold. This occurs amid mildly overbought conditions observed on the daily chart.

However, any significant corrective decline in the precious metal is expected to be limited due to rising expectations of a more aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, political uncertainty in the U.S., bleak global economic prospects, and ongoing geopolitical risks are expected to continue supporting the safe-haven appeal of gold. Furthermore, traders are awaiting a speech by Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman, which could trigger renewed momentum for this non-interest-bearing asset.

From a technical perspective, the recent breakout and sustainability above the $2,600 level can be seen as a new trigger for bulls. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stands at 70, suggesting some caution. Therefore, it would be prudent to wait for a moderate pullback or a short-term consolidation before positioning for the next upward move.

Any corrective decline is likely to attract new buyers around the psychological level of $2,600, below which the price could drop to the horizontal support zone at $2,560. The next relevant support is located near the breakout level at $2,532, with the key psychological support set at $2,500. A decisive break below this level would shift the short-term bias in favor of the bears, paving the way for a more significant decline.
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Highs on the Horizon: China Stimulus Gives Miners a Boost

Record Gains for S&P 500 and Dow as Mining Stocks Take the Lead
The S&P 500 and Dow both hit new record highs on Tuesday despite weak consumer confidence data. This time, mining stocks helped the market, jumping on the back of massive economic stimulus announced by China.

Report Disappoints, But Markets Remain Afloat
Initially, the indexes gave up some of their gains after the Conference Board released a report that showed an unexpected drop in U.S. consumer confidence for September. The decline was due to growing concerns about the health of the U.S. labor market.

China Boost
"The main reason for today's gains was the news of support for China's stock market, as well as promises of future interest rate cuts. These announcements led to a sharp jump in international equities," said Zachary Hill, head of portfolio management at Horizon Investments in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Hill said Chinese stimulus measures have also weighed on U.S. markets, particularly in sectors that are exposed to the Chinese economy, such as mining and metals, which have seen strong gains.

Daily Roundup: Records Set as Cyclicals Rise
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) added 83.57 points (0.20%) to end the day at 42,208.22. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose 14.36 points (0.25%) to 5,732.93, while the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) rose 100.25 points (0.56%) to 18,074.52.

Of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, five ended the day in positive territory, with material stocks posting the biggest gains, up 1.35%.

Metals prices soar as China unveils biggest stimulus since pandemic
Metals prices jumped sharply after China, the world's second-largest economy, announced its biggest economic stimulus since the pandemic, seeking to lift the country out of a deflationary crisis.

Mining stocks on the rise
Amid China's support measures, copper and lithium mining stocks showed notable gains. Freeport-McMoRan shares rose 7.93%, Southern Copper added 7.22%, Albemarle increased 1.97%, and Arcadium Lithium rose 3.2%.

Chinese giants strengthen their positions on US exchanges
Chinese companies listed on US exchanges also showed strong growth. For example, Alibaba jumped 7.88%, PDD Holdings rose 11.79%, and Li Auto gained 11.37%, reflecting positive sentiment in the domestic market.

Tech sector saw mixed results
Tech giants were mixed, with Nvidia rising 3.9% and Microsoft losing 1.15%. However, overall, the tech sector rose 0.79%. The Philadelphia SE semiconductor index rose 1.23%, led by gains in Qualcomm shares of 0.54% and Intel shares of 1.11%.

Fed urges caution as inflation rises
Fed Chair Michelle Bowman warned that inflation remains above the 2% target, calling for a cautious approach to further interest rate cuts.

This week, investors are focused on unemployment and personal consumption spending data, which could influence the Fed's next moves.

Visa Slips Amid Court Case
Among the notable moves in the market, Visa shares fell 5.49% after the U.S. Department of Justice filed a lawsuit against the company for possible antitrust violations. The move put significant pressure on the financial sector, which ended the session down 0.92%.

Stocks Show Solid Gains
Despite the problems in the financial sector, the New York Stock Exchange saw most stocks finish the day higher. For every one that fell, there were nearly two that advanced, a ratio of 1.93 to 1. The NYSE posted 636 new highs and only 43 new lows.

The S&P 500 also showed positive dynamics, with 62 new 52-week highs and no new lows. The Nasdaq Composite posted 103 new highs but also 101 new lows, reflecting a mixed picture in the tech market.

Active Trading on US Exchanges
Total trading volume on US stock markets was 11.42 billion shares, slightly below the average of 11.60 billion over the past 20 sessions. This shows that interest in the market is stable amid global economic changes.

Global Markets and Copper Prices Rise on Chinese Stimulus
A widely followed global stock index hit an all-time high on Tuesday, while copper prices rose to their highest in 10 weeks, driven by economic support measures announced by China, the world's second-largest economy.

Chinese Yuan and Oil Strengthen on Stimulus
The Chinese yuan hit a 16-month high against the US dollar, in response to economic support measures taken by Beijing. Following this, oil prices also rose to a three-week high, reflecting positive expectations in the world's largest crude importer.

New steps from the People's Bank of China
The governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, announced plans to lower borrowing costs and inject more money into the economy. Particular attention will be paid to reducing the debt burden on households, in particular by reducing mortgage payments. Among the planned measures is a 50 basis point reduction in bank reserve requirements, which should stimulate further economic growth.

News from China boosts growth in US cyclical sectors
China's economic support measures have had a significant impact on US markets. "News signals from China are reflected in US sectors, particularly cyclical sectors such as metals and mining, which have performed impressively," said Zachary Hill, head of portfolio management at Horizon Investments in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Fed under close scrutiny by investors
Investors continue to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's actions, trying to predict its next move after the recent monetary easing, when the key interest rate was cut by 50 basis points.

World indices continue to move up
The MSCI World Equity Index showed confident growth, adding 0.54% and reaching a record high of 844.56 points. The European STOXX 600 index also rose by 0.65%, supporting positive sentiment in global markets.

Oil and metals markets are showing strength
In commodity markets, oil prices continued to rise: US crude oil rose by $1.19, reaching $71.56 per barrel, and Brent crude rose by $1.27 to $75.17 per barrel. This growth was caused by positive economic news from China, the world's largest consumer of raw materials.

Copper also posted a strong gain on the London Metal Exchange, rising 2.7% to $9,802 a tonne. The session peaked at $9,825, the highest since mid-July. China's influence on the metals market was a key factor in the rally.

Gold and Yuan Strengthen
Gold continued to strengthen amid growing interest in safe haven assets, rising 1.15% to $2,658.69 an ounce. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan strengthened 0.65% against the US dollar to $7.017.

Dollar Weakens on Weak Consumer Confidence
The US dollar index extended its decline after data showed weak consumer confidence, raising expectations for further Fed easing.

Dollar Loses as Euro and Yen Gain
The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against major global currencies such as the yen and euro, fell 0.57% to 100.35. Meanwhile, the euro gained 0.59% to $1.1178. The Japanese yen also gained against the dollar, with the American currency weakening 0.31% to 143.15 yen.

Treasury yields fall as markets react to economic data
Treasury yields fell in choppy trading, as expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve became more likely amid weak economic data and waning consumer confidence.

Rate Futures: New Cut Odds Rising
The odds that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points at its November meeting have increased to 62%, up from 54% the day before, according to LSEG. At the same time, a more modest 25 basis point cut has a 38% chance.

US 10-Year Treasury Yields Weaken
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note eased slightly to 3.733% in afternoon trading after earlier hitting a three-week high of 3.81%. The trend reflects growing market expectations that the Federal Reserve may take additional monetary easing measures in the near future.
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Four reasons to buy Bitcoin

Through hardships to the stars! Bitcoin is enjoying its investment luster again thanks to worldwide monetary policy easing, rising global risk appetite, and hopes for improved crypto regulation in the US. Regardless of who comes to power—Kamala Harris or Donald Trump—digital assets will find support from the future president. This optimism is fueling the BTC/USD rally.

Bitcoin opened in September in a subdued mood. Historically, over the past decade, it has fallen by an average of 5.9% during the first month of autumn. However, there are exceptions to every rule. In 2024, Bitcoin gained about 10%, thanks to the aggressive start of the Federal Reserve's monetary expansion and support from both US presidential candidates. Kamala Harris promises to increase investment in the crypto industry and artificial intelligence, while Donald Trump plans to make America the crypto capital of the world.

Bitcoin's performance in September

The lower the interest rates, the cheaper the money, and the more liquidity there is in the financial system. An increase in the supply of fiat currencies reduces their purchasing power and drives investors to seek alternatives. The best of these are assets whose supply is limited by nature. It's no surprise that gold is hitting historical highs against this backdrop, and Bitcoin has surged to its highest levels since July.

The Federal Reserve has aggressively begun a cycle of monetary easing. The People's Bank of China has launched its largest-scale stimulus since the pandemic. The weakness of the Eurozone's economy is even prompting ECB hawks to consider rate cuts. Widespread monetary policy easing by major central banks creates a favorable environment for risky assets. Moreover, US stocks have surged thanks to the "Goldilocks" scenario—where GDP is slowing but still growing above trend, and inflation is steadily approaching the 2% target.

Meanwhile, the increase in Bitcoin's correlation with US stock indices to the highest levels since 2022 cements investors' intent to buy cryptocurrency. Unlike the S&P 500 and gold, Bitcoin is far from its historical peaks, meaning it doesn't resemble a bubble that could burst at any moment.

S&P 500 and cryptocurrency correlation trends

Thus, the combination of widespread monetary expansion, diminished trust in fiat currencies, growing global risk appetite, and bipartisan support for the crypto industry are giving Bitcoin a green light. But can it seize the opportunity? The answer to this question will largely depend on US stock indices, whose correlation with digital assets is rapidly increasing.

Technically, on the daily BTC/USD chart, a broadening wedge pattern has fully formed. We expect a pullback to the 4-5 wave, after which there will be an opportunity to increase the previously opened long positions at 55,420–55,720, 58,000, and 59,000.
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The main events by the morning: September 30

In 2025, the world's central banks will switch their focus from fighting inflation to stimulating economic growth. With the beginning of the cycle of interest rate cuts in the second half of this year, experts began to express concern about the prospects for economic development. Now central banks will look for new growth points, since the task of containing inflation has been completed. China has already started stimulating its economy last week.

Investors are actively showing interest in the IPO of Arenadata, having re-signed the application book 3-4 times along the upper limit. The company expects to re-sign 4-5 times. Arenadat strives to avoid a repeat of the situation with Diasoft and intends to make the placement more balanced. The auction will begin on October 1.

Russia plans to strengthen responsibility for illegal migration. Three draft laws are being developed: one of them assumes that illegal stay is considered an aggravating circumstance when committing offenses, the other introduces fines for forgery of migration documents in the amount of 5-10 million rubles, and the third provides for punishment for organizing illegal migration.

The United States has allocated $567 million in military assistance to Taiwan, including for the supply of weapons, training and training in the military sphere. In 2023, the United States provided $345 million in military aid to Taiwan. China considers Taiwan its territory and has repeatedly criticized the American authorities for its support.
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USD/JPY: Shigeru, Ueda, and ADP report

The yen is losing ground again. After nearly a 500-pip rally, the Japanese currency has been falling against re greenback again. On Monday, the USD/JPY pair hit a two-week low, dropping to 141.66, reacting to the unexpected results of the elections of the ruling political party's leadership. The Liberal Democratic Party is now headed by Shigeru Ishiba, who has taken over the government and announced plans to hold early parliamentary elections—one year ahead of schedule.

The yen responded positively to Ishiba's victory, as he is considered a proponent of tight monetary policy and raising interest rates to combat inflation. Importantly, he defeated Sanae Takaichi, a candidate from the highly conservative wing of the LDP (who was considered the frontrunner in the race), who, in contrast, advocated for a softer monetary policy.

In response to Ishiba's victory, the USD/JPY pair dropped 500 pips, falling from 146.50 to the mid-141 range. However, as is often the case with political factors, their influence fades quickly—by the end of the week, the pair's buyers had recovered almost all lost points. The "Shigeru factor" was swiftly priced in by the market, which is quite logical, given that the election of a new prime minister, even one with "hawkish" views, doesn't mean the Bank of Japan will automatically accelerate rate hikes. Ishiba will play his part, of course, but not immediately and not in the public sphere. Don't expect any "Trump-style" statements from the new Japanese prime minister, like those made by the former US president who openly urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Meanwhile, the classic fundamental factors suggest that the Bank of Japan will not rush into the next round of rate hikes. In particular, the Tokyo Consumer Price Index reflected a slowdown in inflation: the overall CPI dropped to 2.2% in September (after rising to 2.6% in August), while the core CPI fell to 2.0%. This index is considered a leading indicator for determining inflation trends nationwide, so its downward trend is a worrying sign for USD/JPY sellers. Other macroeconomic indicators also disappointed. Japan's industrial production volume dropped by more than 3% in August on a monthly basis (-3.3%) against a forecast of -0.5%. Additionally, the volume of new housing starts in Japan declined sharply in September by 5.1% (against a forecast drop of 3.3%).

Such fundamental conditions do not support the tightening of monetary policy. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda confirmed this assumption in his recent speeches. He emphasized the need to maintain a wait-and-see strategy, "considering global economic risks and financial market instability." In his speech yesterday, he also reiterated a cautious stance. According to him, the regulator will pursue "appropriate monetary policy in order to sustainably and stably achieve the inflation target of 2%."

For the most part, the Bank of Japan's leader made general, conventional, and non-committal statements. But this is precisely what is weighing on the Japanese currency. Many of his policymakers (Naoki Tamura, Hajime Takata, and Junko Nagakawa) hinted in their September speeches that the central bank might raise interest rates again in the near future. They specifically pointed to wage indicators (which showed positive dynamics, rising by 1.1% year-on-year in June and 0.4% year-on-year in July).

However, Kazuo Ueda cooled the enthusiasm of USD/JPY sellers. He stated that the October data on service prices "will be key in determining whether inflation is accelerating." Only after a thorough analysis of this data, the regulator will shed light on whether any policy changes can be expected.

In other words, the head of the Bank of Japan cast doubt on another rate hike this year, though he did not rule out such a scenario. This indecisiveness from Ueda disappointed USD/JPY sellers. So, the yen ceased to act as a "driving force" in the USD/JPY pair.

All of this suggests that a resumption of a downward movement is only possible if the US dollar weakens. The instrument is following the dollar index, which in turn is awaiting the key report of the week—the US nonfarm payrolls to be published the day after tomorrow, on October 4. I remind you how traders reacted to the ADP report, which came out in the green today, reflecting the creation of 144,000 jobs in the private sector. On the one hand, this is a relatively modest result. On the other hand, most experts expected this figure to be around 124,000. This has sparked hope among dollar bulls that nonfarm payrolls will also be in the green. In that case, the likelihood of a 50-point rate cut at the November meeting will drop to 20-15%, and the dollar will receive additional (and quite significant!) support.

From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair has approached the resistance level of 145.30 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). It would be advisable to enter long positions after buyers break above and consolidate above this level. In that case, the next medium-term target for the upward movement will be 147.00, which is the lower border of the Kumo cloud on the same time frame.
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Middle East conflict steals the show as Tesla and Nike reports leave investors cold

S&P 500 remains flat amid Middle East tensions and job data concerns
The U.S. stock index S&P 500 ended Wednesday's trading session nearly unchanged as tech stocks managed to gain, but investors remained cautious due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East and anticipation of critical U.S. employment data expected later this week.

Nvidia's gains offset by Tesla's drop
A rise in Nvidia shares by 1.6% provided support to the S&P 500's tech sector. However, Tesla shares declined by 3.5% after the electric vehicle manufacturer reported quarterly vehicle deliveries that fell short of market expectations.

Market eyes on the Middle East
Investors closely monitored developments in the Middle East after Israel vowed to retaliate for Iran's missile attack on Tuesday. U.S. President Joe Biden stated on Wednesday that he would not back an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities in response to the attack and urged Israel to act "proportionately."

Labor market remains resilient
Early Wednesday, data showed that U.S. private sector jobs increased more than expected in September, suggesting continued strength in the labor market. Still, traders remain focused on the upcoming non-farm payrolls report due Friday, as well as Thursday's jobless claims data, which could further influence market expectations.

With the market in a state of suspense, any surprise data or geopolitical developments could serve as a catalyst for volatility in the days ahead.

Investors brace for earnings season and Fed decisions
U.S. stock indices saw little change on Wednesday as investors prepared for an upcoming wave of earnings reports and Federal Reserve decisions. "We're about to see the employment report on Friday, and then next week kicks off the earnings season," commented Michael O'Rourke, Chief Market Strategist at JonesTrading in Stamford, Connecticut.

Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq barely budge
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 39.55 points, or 0.09%, to close at 42,196.52. The S&P 500 edged up 0.01%, gaining just 0.79 points to end at 5,709.54. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite rose by 14.76 points, or 0.08%, to 17,925.12.

Fed's unexpected move fuels September rally
The stock market wrapped up September with strong gains after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut rates by 50 basis points to support the labor market. As a result, the S&P 500 climbed 19.7% year-to-date.

The probability of another 25 basis point cut at the November FOMC meeting now stands at 65.7%, up from 42.6% a week earlier, according to the CME Group FedWatch tool.

Major banks to lead earnings season
JPMorgan Chase and other banking giants will kick off the third-quarter earnings season on October 11, setting the tone for the broader S&P 500 as investors look for signs of stability amid economic uncertainty.

Dockworkers strike paralyzes U.S. ports
Meanwhile, a strike involving 45,000 dockworkers, which has brought shipping at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports to a halt, entered its second day on Wednesday. Negotiations between the unions and employers have yet to be scheduled, according to sources.

Analysts at JPMorgan estimate that the strike is costing the U.S. economy approximately $5 billion per day, intensifying concerns over potential supply chain disruptions.

The market remains on edge as investors await further updates that could impact corporate earnings and broader economic trends.

Nike disappoints Wall Street: shares plunge after withdrawing revenue forecast
Nike shares dropped sharply by 7% on Wednesday after the sportswear giant pulled its annual revenue target, leaving investors puzzled over the company's turnaround timeline under new CEO Elliott Hill.

Investor day canceled, adding to uncertainties
In addition to retracting its revenue forecast, Nike also canceled its investor day scheduled for November 19. The company's CFO, Matthew Friend, explained that the decision would provide Hill with "the necessary flexibility to review Nike's strategies and business trends," hinting at possible restructuring.

How does Nike stack up against competitors?
Currently, Nike's forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 27.98, compared to 27.08 for Deckers and 35.14 for Adidas. Despite the recent decline, Nike shares, trading at $82, have still recovered 10% since the announcement of Hill's appointment in September.

Industry insiders optimistic about Hill's appointment
The CEO of British retailer JD Sports expressed confidence in Hill, stating, "It's good to have someone from within the industry who knows Nike and understands its product range." This suggests that Hill's familiarity with the company could help navigate Nike through its current challenges.

Competitors suffer alongside Nike
Other sportswear stocks weren't immune to the market's jitters: Under Armour and Lululemon both declined by over 2%, while Foot Locker fell by 3%, reflecting broader concerns about supply chain disruptions and sales slowdowns.

Humana plunges amid Medicare warning
Elsewhere, shares of Humana Inc. tumbled 11.8% after the health insurer warned that it expects a drop in enrollment in its top-rated Medicare Advantage plans for seniors in 2025. This statement has sparked worries about the broader healthcare sector's outlook.

With markets digesting these developments, Nike's outlook remains under scrutiny as the company grapples with uncertain forecasts and growing competition.

Wall Street braces for key Fed moves as global markets wobble
Global markets displayed mixed performance as traders digested U.S. labor data and awaited signals from the Federal Reserve. "Given the latest job numbers in the private sector, the bond market is betting against a 50 basis point cut at the next Fed meeting," noted Matt Miskin, Co-Chief Investment Strategist at John Hancock Investment Management.

Indices move sideways
The MSCI global equity index (MIWD00000PUS) dipped by 0.04% to 845.49 points, reflecting overall cautious sentiment. Earlier, the STOXX Europe 600 managed to close with a slight gain of 0.05% at 521.14 points.

Oil prices under pressure, but holding ground
On the energy front, U.S. crude oil rose 0.39% to $70.10 per barrel, while Brent finished the day at $73.90 per barrel, up 0.46%. Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the upward momentum was capped by a significant increase in U.S. crude inventories.

Treasury yields extend gains
U.S. Treasury yields continued their upward trajectory: the benchmark 10-year yield climbed by 4 basis points to 3.783%, compared to 3.743% the previous day. Meanwhile, 30-year bonds saw a 4.9 basis point rise, closing at 4.1299%. The 2-year yield, which is more sensitive to Fed rate expectations, edged up 1.4 basis points to 3.6352%.

Yield curve hints at cautious optimism
A closely-watched segment of the U.S. yield curve, measuring the gap between 2-year and 10-year yields, remained at a positive 14.6 basis points — suggesting that investors are not pricing in a near-term recession.

Dollar strengthens amid market uncertainty
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback's value against a basket of currencies, rose by 0.34% to 101.60. The euro slipped by 0.16% to $1.1049, while the dollar surged 2% against the Japanese yen, reaching 146.43.

Gold loses its luster
In the precious metals market, spot gold declined by 0.14% to $2,659.22 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures fell by 1.02% to $2,640.00. Rising bond yields and a stronger dollar weighed on gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.

With traders balancing geopolitical risks and economic indicators, market sentiment remains fragile, and any new developments could tip the scales in unexpected directions.
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Spirit Airlines Bankruptcy, Oil Rising: How the U.S. Balances Labor Market Gains and Geopolitics

Dow Ends Week at Record High, Nasdaq Shows Solid Gains
The Dow hit record highs on Friday, while the Nasdaq posted an impressive gain of more than 1%, driven by an unexpectedly strong increase in U.S. employment, which somewhat allayed investors' fears about possible economic weakness.

Record Job Growth
September was the month with the most significant job growth in the past six months. According to the published data, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Experts took this report as a signal that the economy remains resilient and does not lose momentum.

"The data confirms that we can expect stable economic activity in the fourth quarter," commented Peter Cardillo, chief economist at Spartan Capital Securities.

Impact on Interest Rates
The improving economic situation, however, may slow down the interest rate cuts that were previously expected. Cardillo noted that positive news from the labor market will most likely slow the process of further rate cuts.

Traders also adjusted their expectations for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, scheduled for November 6-7. The chance of a 50 basis point rate cut fell to 8% from 31% earlier in the day, according to CME Group's FedWatch data.

Small Caps, Financials Rise
Amid the broader market rally, small caps and financials stood out. The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.5%, while the S&P 500 Index rose 1.6%.

The trading session's results showed that despite the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's future actions, investors remain optimistic about the resilience of the U.S. economy.

Spirit Airlines Shares Plunge, Airlines Mixed
Spirit Airlines shares plunged 24.6% on news that the company may be in bankruptcy talks with bondholders. While Spirit plunges into crisis, other airlines are rallying. Thus, Frontier Group shares soared by 16.4%, United Airlines jumped by 6.5%, and Delta Air Lines rose by 3.8%.

Growth of leading indices
Friday's session ended with growth of the main American stock indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 341.16 points (0.81%), reaching 42,352.75. The broad market index S&P 500 also added 0.90% and closed at 5,751.07, and the Nasdaq Composite demonstrated growth by 1.22%, ending the day at 18,137.85.

Weekly results amid geopolitical instability
Although the main indices showed growth on Friday, their results remained modest for the week. Strong investor concerns are associated with the tense situation in the Middle East. The Dow added just 0.1%, the S&P 500 rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq also ended the week with a symbolic gain of 0.1%.

Energy on the rise
The energy sector showed notable gains thanks to a sharp jump in oil prices, which is also associated with political instability in the Middle East. The S&P energy index rose 1.1% on Friday and showed an impressive 7% gain for the week, which was the largest weekly gain since October 2022.

The dynamics in the markets highlight how geopolitical risks and corporate news can have diametrically opposed effects on different sectors of the economy.

Biden urges Israel to consider alternatives in the conflict
US President Joe Biden suggested that if he were in Israel's place, he would consider other measures besides attacks on Iranian oil facilities. He also said he believed Israel had not yet made a final decision on how to respond to Iran's missile strikes this week.

Rivian Shares Slide
Rivian shares fell 3.2% after reporting disappointing production data. The electric vehicle startup cut its full-year guidance and reported delivering fewer vehicles than planned in the third quarter.

S&P 500 Earnings Expectations
Investors are eagerly awaiting the start of the third-quarter earnings season for the S&P 500 next week. Particular attention will be focused on major financial players like JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock, which will report on October 11.

Stock Market Optimism
Investor optimism remains as the S&P 500 has posted a 20.6% gain for the year. Many are hoping that quarterly results will meet high expectations, supporting the continued rally in stock markets.

US Port Backlogs Expected to Ease
Ports on the US East Coast and Gulf of Mexico have reopened, but shipping backlogs may take time to clear as logistical challenges persist. Advancing Stocks Outnumber Declining Stocks

On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones by a ratio of 1.72 to 1. On the Nasdaq, the ratio was even higher, at 2.20 to 1 in favor of advancing stocks.

Highs and Lows on the Stock Exchanges
The S&P 500 Index posted 33 new 52-week highs and just one new low. The Nasdaq Composite posted 98 new highs and 91 new lows.

Trading Volume on U.S. Exchanges Falls
Trading volume on U.S. exchanges on Friday was 10.91 billion shares, below the 20-day average of 12.03 billion. Despite this, global markets remained positive amid strong U.S. labor market data.

Global Markets and the Dollar's Rise
MSCI's global stock index rose, and the U.S. dollar hit its highest level since August. This came after an unexpectedly strong employment report eased investor fears of a possible economic slowdown.

Oil prices rise amid geopolitical risks
Oil prices ended the week with their biggest gain in a year, driven by the escalation in the Middle East and the threat of a wider regional conflict. However, further gains were curbed after US President Joe Biden urged Israel to refrain from an immediate attack.

Strong US employment data
On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the creation of 254,000 new jobs in September, well above the 140,000 expected. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, and data for August were revised up, indicating a stable US labor market.

Reaction to Treasuries and Fed actions
Amid a stronger-than-expected employment report, US Treasury yields rose to their highest since August. This has caused traders to recalibrate their expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. The probability that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter percentage point in November has risen to 97%, up from 68% the day before, according to CME Group's FedWatch data.

Economic data continues to have a significant impact on the market, causing forecast revisions and creating dynamic changes in investor strategy.

Market Reaction to Strong Employment Data
U.S. stocks responded positively to strong employment data despite the Federal Reserve's hawkish sentiment. This, according to Julia Hermann, a strategist at New York Life Investments, highlights the fact that investors are now focusing on economic growth, even if it comes with higher interest rates.

"The market has been able to adapt well to this shift, which suggests a constructive approach to the economic outlook," Hermann said, pointing to strong moves in Treasuries and stocks in recent days.

Economic relief: Ports reopen
The US economy also got some breathing room as ports on the East Coast and Gulf Coast reopened. Dock workers and port operators reached a wage agreement, ending one of the sector's largest strikes in 50 years. However, clearing up the backlog of supplies that has accumulated during the strike could take some time.

Global indices and rising oil prices
The MSCI World Index ended the day up 0.57%, reaching 847.12 points, although it had fallen 0.7% for the week. The European STOXX 600 index also showed gains, adding 0.44%.

Investors continue to closely monitor events in the Middle East. The question of Israel's response to the missile strikes launched by Iran is particularly acute. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has made it clear that Iran and its allies have no intention of backing down.

Oil Prices Rise
Oil prices continued to rise. US crude rose 0.9% to $74.38 a barrel, while North Sea Brent added 0.55% to end the day at $78.05 a barrel. This highlights the ongoing geopolitical risks weighing on energy markets.

The current situation in global markets shows that investors are balancing positive economic news with increasing tensions on the international stage.

The dollar strengthens amid strong employment data
The US dollar showed significant strength, reaching a seven-week high. This is due to the fact that fresh employment data forced traders to revise their expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The dollar is on track to end the week with the largest gain since September 2022.

Dollar Index Movement
The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of major global currencies, rose 0.56% to 102.48. The euro, by contrast, weakened 0.5% to $1.0976, while the Japanese yen lost 1.25%, pushing the dollar higher to 148.77 yen.

Treasury yields rise
U.S. Treasury yields also rose. The benchmark 10-year note rose 12.5 basis points to 3.975%, while the 30-year yield rose 7.9 basis points to 4.259%. Yields on the 2-year note, which is most sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations, rose particularly sharply, adding 21.8 basis points to 3.9321%.

Gold Slips
Gold prices slipped on the back of a strong U.S. jobs report that reduced the likelihood of a major Fed rate cut. Spot gold lost 0.23% to $2,649.89 an ounce. U.S. gold futures also fell, falling 0.38% to $2,647.10 an ounce.

The economic outlook has put precious metals, traditionally seen as safe havens, under pressure as investors reassess their expectations for U.S. monetary policy.
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