Daily Market Analysis From Forexmart

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold faced strong selling pressure today, dropping to the key level of $2,700—its nearly three-week low—within an hour before the European session.

The Republican candidate, Donald Trump, leads in the U.S. presidential race and is likely to become the 47th President of the United States. This development triggered aggressive selling of the yellow metal and a sharp rally in the U.S. dollar.

Additionally, concerns over deficit spending and expectations for less aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher, contributing to divestment from gold.

Technical Analysis

The $2,725–$2,720 level continues to act as immediate strong support. A break below this region could accelerate the decline, potentially testing levels below the key $2,700 level. This level aligns with the lower boundary of the short-term upward trend channel, extending from late July into early August. A decisive break below this threshold would pave the way for a deeper correction from the recent all-time high reached last week, likely dragging the XAU/USD pair toward the next significant support zone around $2,675.

On the other hand, the $2,750 level now serves as the immediate hurdle. A move above this level could lift the price to the next barrier at $2,790 or the all-time high reached last month. Beyond this, the key $2,800 level is expected to act as a critical pivot point. Sustained strength beyond this threshold would set the stage for resuming the well-established upward trend.

Market Sentiment

Adding to the pressure, the risk-on sentiment—evidenced by a strong rally in U.S. stock futures—indicates that gold, as a safe-haven asset, faces a downward path of least resistance.
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Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 12, 2024

Despite the public holiday in the United States, the market remained active, and the euro continued to lose ground. The reason lies in the aftermath of the elections. While the outcomes of the presidential and Senate elections are clear, the distribution of seats in the House of Representatives remains uncertain. Yesterday, it was reported that the Republican Party is on the verge of securing a majority in both chambers of Congress.

This scenario implies that nothing would prevent the Republicans from passing a new tariff law, primarily affecting the European Union—already in a fragile state. Germany's economy seems to have narrowly avoided slipping into recession, though most economists believe it is inevitable and likely to begin next quarter. The introduction of higher tariffs by the U.S. would only exacerbate the European economy's issues.

In other words, political factors have retaken center stage, and investors are closely monitoring developments in the House of Representatives. With the vote count nearing completion, clarity is expected in the coming days. Should the Republican Party secure victory, the euro will weaken further. Conversely, if the Democrats gain the majority, a significant rebound could occur, potentially leading to a correction.

For now, macroeconomic data will play a secondary role. Moreover, with tomorrow's U.S. inflation report looming, the macroeconomic calendar remains relatively empty until then.
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Crisis on the Horizon? Politics and Economics Drown Dow, Nasdaq, Tesla

Profit-Taking Wave: Wall Street Indexes End Day Lower
The key U.S. stock indexes closed lower on Tuesday as investors sought to take profits after the recent rally that began amid the presidential election. Markets are anxiously awaiting fresh U.S. inflation data this week, which could significantly impact future price action.

Post-Election Records: Investors Assess Prospects
Stock indices have been on a tear since the November 5 election, buoyed by new President Donald Trump's promises to cut taxes and loosen business regulations. Market participants have been buying up shares, hoping that these measures will support economic growth and revive the corporate sector.

Inflation Concerns Have Cooled Enthusiasm
However, optimism in the market declined on Tuesday, as investors began to worry that the policies proposed by the Trump administration could trigger a rise in inflation. Amid these concerns, European markets also fell, losing 2%, after statements from the European Central Bank, who warned that higher tariffs from the United States could hurt the global economy.

Tesla and Others Lose Ground After a Jump
Some companies that investors had previously been buying up in anticipation of their rise under the new administration have retreated after reaching peaks. Tesla (TSLA.O) shares fell 6% on Tuesday, despite an impressive 40% gain since the election.

Economic growth is a positive sign, but bonds are under pressure
Karen Karniol-Tambour, co-chief investment officer at Bridgewater Associates, emphasized at the Yahoo Finance Invest conference that despite the risks, U.S. stocks remain attractive assets amid the expected sustainable economic growth in the U.S. She noted that this dynamic is supporting the stock market, although the yield on 10-year Treasury notes has already reached a four-month high, rising amid an expected review of economic policy.

Russell 2000 - from peak to trough
The Russell 2000 small company index (.RUT) fell 1.8%, although on Monday it finished trading at the highest level in the last three years. Meanwhile, rising Treasury yields have added pressure on stocks as bond investors begin to price in the Trump administration's future policies.

Treasuries as a Worry Signal for Stocks
Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital, described the current situation as a difficult balance, with rising 10-year Treasury yields creating a headwind for the stock rally. "On the one hand, investors are cheering about the stimulus package, but on the other, the bond market is signaling its displeasure," he explained.

Ablin added that tariffs, tax breaks, and immigration restrictions could fuel inflation, something that is not lost on the bond market, which is sensitive to such developments.

Global Impact and Inflation Data Expectations
Ameriprise Financial Chief Economist Russell Price noted that U.S. stocks were also pushed lower by weakness in overseas markets and profit-taking ahead of key U.S. inflation data. The consumer price index is due out on Wednesday, followed by producer price and retail sales data, both of which could shed light on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.

These data add short-term risks for investors, Price said. "It's likely the anticipation of these numbers that is driving the modest declines we've seen in the markets today," he said.

Wall Street Closes Lower as Major Indexes Slip
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) ended the day down 382.15 points, down 0.86% to 43,910.98. The S&P 500 (.SPX) fell 17.36 points, or 0.29%, to close at 5,983.99, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) lost 17.36 points, or 0.09%, to close at 19,281.40.

Amgen Under Pressure, Sliding Late
The biggest decliner on the Dow was Amgen (AMGN.O), which fell more than 7% amid a sell-off that intensified toward the end of the session. Amgen shares fell after Cantor Fitzgerald said it could cause side effects from its experimental obesity drug MariTide, which showed a 4% drop in bone mineral density.

Materials and Healthcare Down, Communications Gaining
Among the 11 key S&P 500 sectors, Materials (.SPLRCM) saw the biggest decline, falling 1.6%. The second-largest loser was Healthcare (.SPXHC), with Amgen accounting for a significant portion of the losses. In contrast, Communications (.SPLRCL) was in the green, gaining 0.5% on the day.

Fed Focus: Kashkari and Barkin Assess
The markets also took notice of statements from the Federal Reserve. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Tuesday said current U.S. monetary policy remains "moderately restrictive" and is helping to slow inflation and the economy, albeit only slightly. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, meanwhile, said the Fed is prepared to take action if inflation risks intensify or the labor market shows signs of weakening.

Novavax Slips as Revenue Forecast Cuts
Biotech company Novavax (NVAX.O) shares fell 6% after the company announced it was cutting its full-year revenue forecast. The reason was weaker-than-expected sales of its COVID-19 vaccine, which disappointed investors.

Honeywell at its peak: Elliott Investment backs it
Meanwhile, Honeywell (HON.O) shares soared 3.8% to a record high. The rally came as activist investor Elliott Investment increased its stake in the company by more than $5 billion, giving investors confidence in the industrial giant's future growth.

Stocks on the market: More decliners than gainers
Declining stocks were significantly outnumbered on the New York Stock Exchange, with a ratio of 3.48 to 1. Meanwhile, the NYSE recorded 328 new highs and 101 new lows. Declining stocks also outnumbered advancing ones on the Nasdaq, with 3,012 of the 4,336 shares trading down and 1,328 gaining. The S&P 500 posted 55 new 52-week highs and 16 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite added 193 new highs and 129 new lows.

Volumes on the rise, Asian stocks under pressure
Total trading volume on U.S. exchanges reached 15.29 billion shares, above the 20-session average of 13.17 billion. Meanwhile, Asian stocks also fell on Wednesday, as a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields fueled worries ahead of key inflation data that could impact the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.

Short-term bond yields rise, dollar strengthens
Short-term U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply on Tuesday, hitting their highest since late July. The move also helped the dollar strengthen, hitting a more than three-month high against the Japanese yen as the market reopened after the Veterans Day holiday.

Trump Policy and Inflation Expectations
Since Donald Trump was elected president, rising bond yields have been a clear trend as market participants anticipate that promised tax cuts and tariffs could lead to a larger budget deficit and more government borrowing. Such a scenario, analysts say, would also fuel inflation, making it harder for the Fed to cut interest rates further.

Tug of War: Stocks and Bonds
Against this backdrop, the U.S. stock market enjoyed a record rally, but that optimism quickly turned to caution as bond yields began to rise. Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, noted that the move remains part of the so-called "Trump trade," which is based on the idea of more deficit spending. "However, as we have seen before, higher risk-off asset rates are starting to put pressure on equity valuations, creating a tug-of-war between the bond and equity markets," he added.

Bitcoin Returns to Record High: Betting on Trump's Crypto-Friendly Policy
Bitcoin is slowly but surely moving towards its all-time high, approaching the $90,000 mark. Its price is currently hovering around $88,195, reflecting market participants' expectations inspired by Trump's promise to turn the US into a global crypto hub. Investors are hoping that possible regulatory easing will give the cryptocurrency a new boost.

China in Focus: Commodity Market Weakening
Meanwhile, global commodities have come under pressure as traders are worried about China's economic outlook, which may have to contend with new trade tariffs from the US. The economic stimulus measures announced by Beijing have not yet inspired confidence in the ability of market participants to quickly recover the largest Asian economy.

Asian Markets Tumble
Asian markets are also down, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) down 0.9%, while the mainland China Property Index (.HSMPI) fell 1.3%. Chinese blue chips (.CSI) were unchanged. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) and South Korea's Kospi (.KS11) fell 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively, while Australia's (.AXJO) also fell 1.1%, weighed down by commodity stocks.

US Futures and Bond Yields: Sustained Tension
S&P 500 futures are down 0.1%, continuing their gains after an overnight 0.3% drop. Meanwhile, the yield on two-year Treasury notes hit 4.34%, the first time it has risen to 4.367% since late July. The 10-year yield remains at 4.43%, not far from the four-month high of 4.479% set immediately after Trump's landslide election victory.

Dollar on the cusp: Yen strength raises expectations of intervention
The dollar hit 154.94 yen for the first time since late July before falling back to 154.56 yen. That brings the dollar/yen pair closer to the important 155 yen threshold, which many analysts see as a potential point at which Japanese policymakers could intervene verbally to prevent the yen from weakening further.

Japanese policymakers ready to act
Last week, Atsushi Mimura, head of the Japanese Ministry of Finance's foreign exchange bureau, stressed that Japanese policymakers are prepared to act quickly if there are significant exchange rate movements, raising market expectations of possible intervention.
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Gold ends the week with the worst performance in three years

Gold ends the week with a drop, reaching the lowest level in the last three years. The market value of the precious metal has been declining throughout the week and has lost more than 4% of its value. Spot gold is currently trading at $2,561 per ounce.

Experts believe that the decline in the value of gold is due to a strong dollar and expectations of a stricter US monetary policy under Trump. Also, high interest rates make gold less attractive to investors.

Comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, in which he stressed the need for caution in rapidly lowering rates, also affected market sentiment.

Perhaps the price of gold will rise in the future and reach the $ 2,600 mark again, but the coming week will show how the market will be affected by reports on retail sales in the United States and statements by representatives of the Fed.
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Oil is growing amid the aggravation of the geopolitical situation

Oil prices started the week with an increase caused by the aggravation of the geopolitical situation over the weekend. At the same time, concerns about the demand for oil in China, the largest consumer, and forecasts of an abundance of it in the world are holding back price growth.

Brent futures rose 0.34% to $71.67 per barrel, while WTI contracts rose 0.31% to $67.50 per barrel.

The decision of President Biden's administration to allow Ukraine to use American weapons for strikes on Russian territory has become a serious turn in US policy. This event may lead to an increase in the so-called «geopolitical risk premium» in the oil market, as it increases tensions in the world.

A decrease in the capacity of refineries in China and a slowdown in production growth in the country are also causing concern among investors. In addition, uncertainty in global financial markets is related to the pace and scale of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. In the United States, the number of active oil drilling rigs decreased last week, reaching the lowest level since July.
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Tesla Buzz, Nasdaq Gains, Nvidia Intrigue — Wall Street Events

Nasdaq and S&P 500 Results: Nvidia on the Horizon, Tesla Surprises
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 ended Monday's trading in the "green zone," recouping some of their previous losses. Investors turned their attention to Nvidia's (NVDA.O) earnings call, while Tesla's (TSLA.O) shares rose sharply on expectations of favorable policy changes from the new Trump administration.

Nvidia: AI bets continue
Nvidia is set to report third-quarter financial results on Wednesday, with investors awaiting answers to a key question: whether strong demand for chips is continuing and whether the AI euphoria that has driven growth this year is sustaining the market.

The company, which has accounted for about 20% of the S&P 500's earnings over the past 12 months, is expected to post 25% EPS growth in the third quarter, according to analysts at BofA Global Research. However, Nvidia shares fell 1.3% after reports of new AI chips overheating in server systems.

Expert Comments: Moderate Optimism
"Nvidia is the last of the Magnificent Seven to report quarterly results. While we are seeing revenue and interest pick up, the current level of expectations is not as high as it was a quarter or two ago," said Carol Schleif, chief investment officer at BMO Family Office.

Tesla: Jump on Expectations
Tesla shares have soared, reflecting positive market sentiment about possible policy changes associated with the new administration. Such growth underscores investors' desire to seize opportunities in a rapidly changing environment.

The sentiment around Nvidia and Tesla in the coming days may become an indicator of the future direction of the market, which promises many surprises for traders.

US indices: Nasdaq and S&P 500 in the green, Dow Jones declines
Trading on the US stock market on Monday ended with mixed dynamics of key indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) lost 55.39 points (-0.13%) to end at 43,389.60. At the same time, the S&P 500 (.SPX) added 23.00 points (+0.39%) to end at 5,893.62, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) rose 111.69 points (+0.60%) to end at 18,791.81.

Energy and Tesla: Who's Pulling the S&P 500 Up
The energy sector (.SPNY) led the S&P 500, rising 1.05%. Consumer discretionary stocks (.SPLRCD) followed suit, adding 1.04%. Tesla was in the spotlight, with shares jumping 5.6% after Bloomberg's report.

Donald Trump's transition team is reportedly considering loosening regulations on self-driving cars, fueling investor interest.

Meanwhile, industrials (.SPLRCI) were among the laggards, posting the biggest declines among sectors.

CVS Health Gains Strength
In notable corporate news, CVS Health (CVS.N) shares rose 5.4%. The jump was the result of the company announcing it would expand its board by adding four new members as part of a deal with Glenview Capital Management.

Experts Predict Volatility
Carol Schleiff, chief investment officer at BMO Family Office, said, "There could be significant volatility in some sectors right now until we hear more details about the decisions of the new Trump team, which is expected later this month."

Market Takes Stock of the Year
Despite a correction following the sharp post-election rally, sentiment on Wall Street remains positive.

The year 2024 is drawing to a close, demonstrating the resilience of the U.S. stock market, although its future direction will depend on political decisions and new macroeconomic factors.

Stock Market: Holiday Season, Political Uncertainty, and Expectations from the Fed
U.S. stock indexes ended last week with the largest losses in the last two months. Investors are worried about the slowdown in the pace of easing by the Federal Reserve, as well as uncertainty around Donald Trump's appointments to his administration.

Retailers under close scrutiny
The start of the week coincided with an active holiday shopping season, which shifts the market's focus to the largest retail players. Walmart (WMT.N), Lowe's Companies (LOW.N) and Target (TGT.N) are preparing to release their results, which will become an indicator of the state of American consumer demand.

Balance of Power: More Winners on the NYSE
On the New York Stock Exchange, gainers outnumbered decliners 1.71 to 1, with 159 new yearly highs and 88 new yearly lows.

On the Nasdaq, the picture was balanced, with 2,158 gainers and 2,150 decliners. The S&P 500 posted 29 new yearly highs and 13 new yearly lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 69 new yearly highs and 265 new yearly lows.

Trading Activity Beats Averages
Trading volume on U.S. exchanges totaled 14.94 billion shares, exceeding the 20-day average of 14.12 billion. This activity indicates that traders are paying close attention to market events.

Global sentiment: Stocks rise, dollar falls
Global markets were positive on Monday, with stocks rising while the US dollar slipped, although it remains close to its yearly peaks. Investors moderated expectations about the Federal Reserve's next move, easing some of the pressure on the currency.

The holiday season is coming, and its outcome is expected to add clarity to the overall picture of the US economy.

Trump appointments and economic uncertainty: focus on key positions
US President-elect Donald Trump is busy building his team, filling important positions in the areas of health care and defense. However, key appointments for financial markets – the Treasury Secretary and the Trade Representative – remain open, adding uncertainty to the outlook.

New policies: taxes and tariffs in focus
The incoming Trump administration is expected to focus on two priorities: tax cuts and higher tariffs. Economists say such measures could trigger higher inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates.

Bond Yields: A Red Flag?
The U.S. Treasury yield market has seen yields fall amid heightened volatility. The benchmark 10-year note has lost 1 basis point to 4.416%.

"The 10-year yield reflects budget and deficit concerns, and signals underlying inflation risks if new tariffs are imposed," said Wasif Latif, president and chief investment officer at Sarmaya Partners.

Inflation: Back on the Table
The structure and scale of tariffs that the new administration may initiate have inflationary potential, according to Latif. "The bond market is sending a clear signal. The stock market may have paused last week, but today it seems to be riding a wave of optimism again," he said.

Markets: Balancing Expectations and Risks
Investors continue to balance optimism over economic stimulus measures with concerns that new tariffs and rising inflation could complicate the Fed's monetary policy. In the coming weeks, attention will focus on filling key positions and the details of the Trump administration's economic strategy.

European Markets Under Pressure: Real Estate and Utilities in the Red
European stock markets ended the day lower, led by weakness in the real estate and utilities sectors. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index (.STOXX) lost 0.06%, reflecting a cautious investor mood.

Global Markets: Gains on Nvidia Expectations
Sentiment was more positive in global markets, with the MSCI World Index (.MIWD00000PUS), which tracks stocks around the world, rising 0.35% to 845.60. Nvidia (NVDA.O) earnings on Wednesday remain in focus.

Analysts expect strong revenue growth from the company, which continues to dominate the AI chip space. Nvidia shares have nearly tripled this year, becoming a key driver of the S&P 500's record highs.

Dollar and Forex: Strengthening Against the Yen
The U.S. dollar rose 0.29% against the Japanese yen to 154.605. However, the dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, was down 0.51% at 106.19. Despite the decline, the currency remains close to its one-year high of 107.07, reflecting the overall strength of the U.S. economy.

Oil Market: Prices Rise Sharply
Oil prices have shown a significant strengthening after the news of production suspension at Norway's largest Johan Sverdrup field.

Brent crude futures closed at $73.30 per barrel, up 3.2%. Similarly, WTI crude also gained 3.2%, closing at $69.16 per barrel.

Looking Ahead: What to Expect from Markets
Investors are eagerly awaiting earnings reports from Nvidia and other tech giants, which could set the tone for future market dynamics. The oil sector continues to react to geopolitical events, while currency traders will be watching for cues from the Federal Reserve.

Gold Returns: Prices Rise After a Week of Losses
Gold prices have rebounded after six straight days of declines. Spot gold rose 1.93% to $2,610.73 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures rose 1.7% to $2,614.60. The weakening U.S. dollar was the main driver of the precious metal's gains.

Market Calm: A Pause in News Flow
"Markets should be more stable this week as the flow of macro and policy news from the U.S. slows," said Jim Reed, head of global economics and thematic research at Deutsche Bank. The agenda continues to focus on the appointment of key figures in the new Donald Trump administration.

S&P 500 Forecasts: Growth in Perspective
Goldman Sachs has updated its forecast for the S&P 500 (.SPX), expecting it to reach 6,500 by the end of 2025. This target implies growth of 10.3% from the current value of the index, which closed at 5,893.62.

Morgan Stanley has provided a similar forecast, suggesting that the S&P 500 will reach the same level by the end of next year. The bank bases its expectations on improving corporate earnings, easing of the Federal Reserve interest rate policy in 2024, and a strengthening business cycle.
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The main events by the morning: November 20

The United States will not change its nuclear policy, despite changes in Russian doctrine. According to Bloomberg, a Pentagon spokesman said that the United States has no data indicating that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The changes in the Russian nuclear doctrine, according to Pentagon officials, did not come as a surprise to Washington.

Biden approved the supply of anti-personnel mines to Ukraine, which are prohibited by an international agreement. The United States made this decision to help Ukrainian troops deter the advance of Russian troops. The shipments include mines that are subject to the prohibitions of the Ottawa Convention, signed by 164 countries, including the United States and Russia.

Japan and China continue to actively sell American government bonds. Japanese investors sold a record $61.9 billion of U.S. bonds in the three months ended September 30, and Chinese funds disposed of $51.3 billion worth of treasuries over the same period. Experts attribute these actions to the expectations of Donald Trump's return to power.

Vladimir Putin will visit India to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Against this background, Bloomberg noted the failure of US efforts to isolate Russia on the world stage. At the same time, Washington cannot put pressure on India, as it considers it a key ally in the confrontation with China.

Trump may lift sanctions against Russia at the end of the conflict in Ukraine. A representative of the President-elect's transition team commented on the prospect of easing and lifting Washington's sanctions against Moscow, as well as normalizing trade and economic relations between the United States and Russia. He stated that this is «certainly an opportunity if the conflict in Ukraine turns out to be resolved.»
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Market at crossroads amid tensions: How investors are saving themselves in an era of uncertainty

Nasdaq slows down as investors ponder
The tech-heavy Nasdaq ended Wednesday in the red, breaking the day's upward move. The reason was the growing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as weak financial results from Target. Investors were anxiously awaiting the release of Nvidia's quarterly results, which, however, fell short of inflated expectations.

Dow in the green, S&P 500 is flat
The Dow Jones managed to finish the session higher, while the S&P 500 remained virtually unchanged. Meanwhile, morning trading began with a general decline - the news of Ukraine using British Storm Shadow missiles on Russian territory stirred up the markets. This happened immediately after the announcement of the launch of American ATACMS missiles, which prompted Russia to announce a reduction in the nuclear threshold.

"Fear scale" at a maximum since 2020
The Wall Street VIX volatility index, known as the "fear scale", rose to 18.79, which was a record since November 2020, and then fell to 17.24. Despite the pullback, anxiety in the markets remains high.

"After yesterday's strong rally in the tech sector, today the market switched to a more defensive mode," said James Regan, head of research at D.A. Davidson.

Nvidia: High Expectations Disappointed
The quarterly earnings report from AI chipmaker Nvidia was the highlight of the evening. The company's shares were down 0.76% during the session and fell further after the close. Despite a fourth-quarter revenue forecast that beat analysts' average estimates, investors were expecting more.

The market, which has seen a strong rally, is once again faced with a choice between risk and caution as global events add uncertainty.

Tech Under Pressure: Nasdaq Slightly Down
The information technology sector was under pressure, ending the session down 0.23%, which affected overall investor sentiment. The tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.11%, showing that confidence in the segment has weakened somewhat.

Target: Drops in Gift Season
Target shares plunged 21.4% after the company issued holiday sales and profit guidance that fell short of analysts' expectations. The company's weak third-quarter results added to investor disappointment.

Target's decline also weighed on the consumer discretionary index, which lost 0.57% on the day and was the worst performer in the sector.

Tesla and Amazon are down
Tesla shares fell 1.15% and Amazon lost 0.85%, indicating that investors are taking a cautious approach to growth assets. These companies, which had previously been leaders in their segments, are now facing more subdued expectations.

Indices: Mixed Results
Among the major indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to rise 139.53 points (+0.32%), closing at 43,408.47. The S&P 500 showed almost zero dynamics, adding a symbolic 0.13 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 21.32 points (-0.11%) to 18,966.14.

Nvidia: a leader or a source of risk?
Despite the decline in Nvidia shares during the last session, its annual dynamics remain impressive: since the beginning of the year, the shares have almost tripled their value. According to BofA Global Research, this has brought about 20% of the return of the entire S&P 500 index over the past 12 months.

Artificial intelligence: prospects and challenges
"Companies are starting to share successful cases of using AI, showing how investments in new technologies bring additional income or help reduce costs," analysts comment. However, investors are cautious, preferring to wait for confirmation of the sustainability of these trends.

The market is entering a new phase where high expectations collide with the reality of results, and geopolitical instability continues to shape sentiment.

MicroStrategy and MARA Holdings: Rapid Growth
MicroStrategy shares soared by 10%, while MARA Holdings showed an even more impressive growth of 13.9%. These companies linked to the cryptocurrency sector received support amid improving investor sentiment and growing interest in digital assets.

Central Bank: December Intrigue
Traders have increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates at its December meeting. This opinion was formed amid the publication of strong economic data that shows the economy is stable despite persistent inflation.

NYSE and Nasdaq: The odds are stacked against the downside
On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), decliners outnumbered gainers by a 1.24-to-1 ratio, with 184 new highs and 94 new lows. On the Nasdaq, the story is similar: 2,245 stocks fell, compared to 2,007 gainers, for a ratio of 1.12-to-1.

The S&P 500 posted 30 new 52-week highs and 13 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 92 new highs and 163 new lows, underscoring the overall trend of uncertainty in the market.

Trading Activity: Volumes Decline
Total trading volume on U.S. exchanges was 13.2 billion shares, below the 20-day average of 14.32 billion. This indicates some caution among traders in the current market conditions.

Global Markets: Balancing Act
On the international stage, stocks showed a moderate decline, as traders continued to take into account the growing geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin set a new record, demonstrating investor confidence in cryptocurrencies. The dollar also strengthened after three days of decline, which became an additional signal of a change in sentiment in the currency markets.

The financial world once again demonstrates a complex interplay of factors, where global events, economic data and central bank actions are intertwined into a complex picture of uncertainty.

Market ends the session with variable dynamics
The S&P 500 index ended trading virtually unchanged, reflecting neutral investor sentiment. The Dow Jones turned out to be in the green, while the Nasdaq showed a decline, continuing the correction after the recent rally.

Among the leaders of growth, shares of companies from the healthcare, energy and materials sectors stood out. In contrast, consumer staples, financials and technology stocks were weak, becoming the session's main losers.

Global indices: moderate decline
The MSCI All-World Index, which measures the overall performance of global markets, fell 0.16% to 847.84. European stocks also ended the day lower, although the decline was minimal, down 0.02%.

Nvidia: pressure from high expectations
Investors were watching Nvidia shares closely, which came under some pressure after the release of quarterly results. Despite the decline, the situation was not catastrophic, said James St. Aubyn, chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management.

"Nvidia remains a key player in the market, but expectations are rising each quarter and they are becoming increasingly difficult to meet. We are at that point where high expectations are starting to put pressure," St. Aubyn added.

Outlook: Market at a crossroads
The session showed that market participants remained cautious, balancing expectations for further growth with concerns related to geopolitics and corporate results. Global stocks reflected the general tension, with investors weighing local and global risk factors.

This week promises to be eventful, and the coming days may provide clearer signals about the direction of markets in the near future.

Gold and bonds: a safe haven for investors
Gold and government bond prices continued to rise on Tuesday, as markets reacted to the escalation of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Such news caused increased demand for safe assets.

Gold: triumph of the third session
Gold prices reached a weekly high, continuing to rise for the third trading session in a row. Spot gold increased by 0.69%, reaching $2,649.89 per ounce. U.S. gold futures showed a similar gain of 0.8%, reaching $2,651.70.

The rise in gold prices reflects investors' appetite for conservative strategies amid global instability.

Treasury Secretary Appointment: Intrigue in Focus
Also in focus is Donald Trump's choice for Treasury Secretary, which is expected to be announced as early as Wednesday.

"The market is recognizing that some of Trump's policies, such as tariffs and deportations, carry inflation risks," said Lukasz Tomicki, co-founder of LRT Capital in Austin, Texas. Bond yields have risen sharply since the election, confirming market participants' expectations.

Dollar: Recovering from Losses
The dollar index rose 0.54% to 106.68, snapping a three-day losing streak, although current levels remain below a one-year high.

The dollar also gained against key currencies, up 0.48% against the yen to 155.40 and 0.2% against the Swiss franc to 0.88410. The dollar index has gained nearly 3% since the November 5 election, underscoring confidence in the U.S. economy.

Global markets are on hold: geopolitical tensions, monetary policy and personnel decisions in the US continue to influence asset movements. The latest statements and actions by leaders can radically change the trajectory of investor sentiment.

Yuan under pressure: the market reacts to the central bank's decision
The Chinese yuan weakened against the dollar after the People's Bank of China decided to leave its base lending rates unchanged, as analysts had predicted. In the offshore market, the yuan lost 0.22%, falling to 7.251 per dollar. Such a decline reflects the general caution of investors in the context of stable monetary policy in China.
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Riding the Crest of a Wave: Nvidia Boosts Wall Street, Bitcoin Challenges $100K, Dollar High

Stock Markets Recover After Unsettled Trading
World stock indexes rose on Thursday despite mixed sentiment among investors. The main topic of trading was Nvidia's forecasts, which, while still positive, fell short of market expectations. At the same time, Bitcoin continued its confident movement, approaching the psychological mark of $100,000.

Nvidia: records and disappointment
Shares of Nvidia (NVDA.O), a company whose technologies are shaping the future of artificial intelligence, started the session with an impressive takeoff, reaching a historical maximum. However, their dynamics later slowed down, and by the end of the day, growth was only 0.53%. Investors were concerned about the company's forecasts: the expected revenue growth was the most modest in the last seven quarters.

"Nvidia's results are still impressive, but the lack of brighter prospects for the fourth quarter may have cooled the market's enthusiasm a little," commented Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers.

Wall Street: growth despite losses of giants
On American exchanges, the session ended on a positive note. Major indexes rose, led by gains in utilities, financials, consumer discretionary and industrials. However, communications services remained in the red, led by significant losses in Alphabet (GOOGL.O), which fell 6%.

Alphabet faces a new challenge as US authorities demand Google abandon its Chrome browser to eliminate its dominance in internet search. The lawsuit has left investors nervous and the tech giant's shares tumbling.

More challenges ahead for the market
Despite the upbeat close, investors continue to closely monitor corporate forecasts and the macroeconomic situation. Bitcoin expectations and the future performance of the largest tech companies remain the main themes for the market.

Dow triumphs, Nasdaq moderately gains
US stock indexes ended the session with varying degrees of growth. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.06% to 43,870.35, posting a solid gain. The broad-based S&P 500 rose 0.53% to 5,948.71. The Nasdaq Composite, however, was relatively flat, up a modest 0.03% to 18,972.42.

Europe: Tech, Energy Lead Gains
The MSCI Global Index, which tracks stocks around the world, also showed positive momentum, adding 0.38% to 851.05. However, the day was choppy as uncertainty swept the markets. European stocks, as represented by the STOXX (.STOXX), rose 0.41%, led by a rally in the tech and energy sectors.

"There's a bit of a news vacuum in the market right now, which makes it hard to pinpoint a clear direction," said Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers.

Bitcoin Heads for $100,000
The cryptocurrency market continues to impress, with Bitcoin, the world's largest digital currency, steadily heading toward the $100,000 mark. It has gained 3.75% in the past 24 hours to reach $98,005. Bitcoin has gained more than 40% since Donald Trump won the presidential election on November 5. Investors attribute this momentum to expectations that the new administration will be favorable to cryptocurrencies.

Ethereum Gains Strength
It's not just Bitcoin that's showing strength: Ethereum is also showing remarkable results. The cryptocurrency has gained 8.77% to end the day at $3,350.80.

Treasury Secretary in Investors' Crosshairs
Markets are tensely awaiting the appointment of the Treasury Secretary in the new Trump administration. The choice will be key to implementing policies that include tax cuts, deregulation, and tariff initiatives.

Global markets are currently awaiting new guidance, with cryptocurrencies already betting on a looser economic policy. Investors continue to closely monitor Trump's actions and their impact on the global financial arena.

A strong labor market supports the dollar
The US dollar rose amid an unexpected decline in jobless claims, indicating a resilient labor market. An additional factor was the statements by Federal Reserve officials, who emphasized the possibility of further interest rate hikes.

However, currency movements were mixed. The dollar fell 0.62% against the Japanese yen, falling to 154.45, but strengthened against the Swiss franc by 0.29%, reaching 0.887.

Dollar Index on the Rise
The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies, rose 0.37% to 107, its highest in 13 months. The euro, by contrast, weakened, losing 0.41% to $1.0479.

Russia and Ukraine Shake Up Oil Markets
Oil prices jumped sharply, gaining about 2%, after reports of a missile exchange between Russia and Ukraine, raising concerns about the stability of crude supplies to the global market.

Brent crude futures rose 1.95% to $74.23 a barrel, while WTI futures added 2% to $70.10. Investors are worried that geopolitical tensions could continue to push prices higher.

Fourth straight session of growth
The gold market is showing positive dynamics, strengthening its position as a safe-haven asset. Spot gold rose by 0.8%, reaching $2,671.28 per ounce. US gold futures also went up, adding 0.9% and reaching $2,674.90.

Gold's growth is accompanied by increasing interest from investors who are looking for stability in the face of global economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks.

Financial markets: new challenges and opportunities
The combination of economic factors such as a strong labor market and the Fed's comments with geopolitical risks creates a volatile but opportunity-rich environment for investors. Currency and commodity markets continue to react to the rapidly changing news background, making strategy selection key to success.

Why the US retains its leadership?
US stocks continue to strengthen their positions, significantly outperforming global peers. Investors associate this with hopes for the implementation of the economic program of President-elect Donald Trump. But the key to success will be the administration's ability to avoid escalating trade tensions and keep the budget deficit under control.

The S&P 500 (.SPX) has risen an impressive 24% in 2024, outpacing the major benchmarks in Europe, Asia and emerging markets. The premium of the US index over the MSCI index of more than 40 countries has reached 22 times expected returns, according to LSEG Datastream. This is the largest gap in the last 20 years.

Tech and Economy on the US Side
Despite more than a decade of US stock dominance, the gap has widened this year, thanks to robust US economic growth and strong corporate earnings. The tech sector continues to be a driving force, with the excitement around artificial intelligence driving growth for companies such as Nvidia (NVDA.O).

A New Wave of Investing in Technology
Nvidia, a recognized leader in AI chips, continues to be a bellwether for tech companies. The success of Nvidia and other players in the industry shows that investors are betting on the future of tech, which will be defined by artificial intelligence.

"The US stock market is currently playing to its strengths: innovation, corporate profits, and economic resilience," analysts say.

How long will the US maintain its leadership?

While the current situation seems optimistic, the market is not immune to risks. Investors are closely monitoring the steps of the new administration, especially on tax policy, tariffs, and the budget. Any deviation from this course could be a turning point for the market.

Global Competition: Can the World Catch Up with the US?
While other regions, including Europe and emerging markets, are struggling with challenges such as slowing economic growth and geopolitical instability, the US continues to set the standard. However, the competition is not abating, and global markets may start to close the gap in the coming years.

US stocks remain at the top, but the question is how long this position will last. Investors should be prepared for changes and watch developments closely.

Taxes, deregulation and tariffs: a recipe for success?
Donald Trump's economic platform of tax cuts, deregulation and the use of tariffs as leverage has provoked mixed reactions. However, many experts believe that these measures can strengthen the US leadership on the global stage, despite possible side effects such as inflation and trade conflicts.

"Given the stimulative nature of the new administration's policies, US stocks will struggle to find worthy rivals at least until the end of 2025," says Venu Krishna, head of US equity strategy at Barclays.

Investors vote for the US
Following the November 5 election, inflows into US equity funds have reached record levels. In the week since the vote, investors have poured more than $80 billion into U.S. assets. By contrast, European and emerging markets have seen significant capital outflows, according to Deutsche Bank.

This shift in priorities reflects growing confidence in the U.S. market amid expectations for higher returns and stability.

U.S. companies continue to dominate
One of the main reasons for the resilience of the U.S. market is impressive corporate earnings growth. LSEG Datastream forecasts S&P 500 earnings to grow 9.9% in 2024 and 14.2% in 2025.

By comparison, Europe's Stoxx 600 index is expected to grow more modestly: 1.8% this year and 8.1% next year. The gap underscores the U.S. lead in corporate profitability.

"America remains the region that has the highest earnings growth and maintains strong profitability," says Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors.

What's next for the market?
Experts note that even if global markets begin to catch up with the US, the US market will remain a key point of attraction for investors due to its sustainable growth and pro-business policies.
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EUR/USD: parity in the risk zone

Donald Trump's return to the political arena is alarming for investors, since his economic views, as during the previous presidency, are clearly nationalistic in nature.

The EUR/USD pair fell sharply, reaching a two-year low, due to fears that the trade wars that Trump will inevitably resume will lead to an economic crisis in the eurozone. Economic indicators confirmed the deterioration of the situation: the composite PMI fell below the 50 mark, signaling a reduction in economic activity.

In this regard, markets expect a more aggressive monetary policy of the European Central Bank, which may lead to a fall in the euro to parity with the dollar. Such a scenario was already implemented in 2022 during the outbreak of the military conflict in Ukraine, when the euro weakened amid the energy crisis.

Previously, a similar situation was observed in 2016, when the dollar rose sharply after Trump's election victory, and then weakened by 2017. Such dynamics may be repeated, especially if the minutes of the October Fed meeting turn out to be «dovish» and inflation in Europe decreases.

At the moment, the dollar is holding at 107, and the euro is 104.
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