Daily Market Analysis From Forexmart

Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by Andrea ForexMart, Aug 23, 2017.

  1. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    The main events by the morning: January 9

    Denmark admits the possibility of granting Greenland independence amid pressure from Trump. Although it is difficult to assess the seriousness of the US president-elect's intentions, European leaders reacted quite harshly. The Prime Minister of Greenland has already held a meeting with King Frederik and intensified the rhetoric of independence. Further developments are still uncertain.

    Trump may impose a state of emergency to legally justify the imposition of new duties against other countries. Such a step would give the president the authority to personally regulate imports and develop a new tariff policy. Against the background of these rumors, the dollar strengthened against major currencies, increasing pressure on global markets.

    Joe Biden has canceled his last foreign trip to Italy, focusing on fighting large-scale fires in California. The White House said the president will spend the last weeks of his term coordinating disaster relief efforts. The damage from the fires is already estimated at $52-57 billion, and their localization is not yet possible.

    Trading in X5 shares resumed on the Moscow Stock Exchange. On December 24, the Moscow Stock Exchange announced that the company, which had moved to Russian jurisdiction, had been assigned the ticker «X5». Since July 22, shares of PJSC «Corporate Center X5» have been included in the first level of listing. At the beginning of trading, the share price rose to 3,000 rubles, but after half an hour it fell to the region of 2,750.

    Bitcoin dropped below $93 thousand on the news of the sale of coins by the US government. The cryptocurrency continues its series of sharp losses as risk appetite has been undermined by the Fed's hawkish signals. It also became known that the US Department of Justice received court permission to sell 69,370 bitcoins (worth $6.5 billion), confiscated during the investigation of the Silk Road case.
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  2. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    Nikkei and U.S. Futures Sink Quietly: Where to Look for Resilience

    Investors Await U.S. Employment Report
    World stock markets continued to show weakness on Friday as investors waited with bated breath for U.S. employment data, which could either deepen the bond market sell-off or ease the tension a bit. Meanwhile, the dollar is holding steady near a two-year high.

    U.S. Exchanges in the Red
    Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%, reflecting tensions among market participants. Wall Street remained closed yesterday for the funeral of former US President Jimmy Carter. Meanwhile, European STOXX 50 futures and the UK FTSE were steady, showing no significant changes.

    Key Moment of the Day: Employment Data
    All eyes are on the US non-farm payrolls report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET (1:30 p.m. GMT). Analysts expect the number of jobs to increase by 160,000 in December, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%.

    However, the market is waiting not only for the numbers, but also for their impact on the economy. A stronger result could send 10-year Treasury yields soaring to their highest levels in 13 months. This, in turn, would strengthen the dollar.

    Possible scenarios
    According to ING, a result below 150,000 new jobs is needed to avoid further rise in Treasury yields. Any deviation from forecasts could set the markets on a new course, adding to turbulence.

    Investors around the world are holding their breath, as today's outcome could set the mood for the coming weeks.

    Employment report could be a turning point
    Friday's key event, the publication of the US employment report, is causing a lot of speculation among investors and analysts. It is this data that could determine the future trajectory of the bond and currency markets, but experts note that the impact will only be noticeable in the event of a significant deviation from forecasts.

    Experts warn: a surprise is needed
    "The employment report, as always, plays a decisive role. But for it to have a noticeable impact, the results need to be significantly different from expectations," said Padraic Garvey, head of research for the Americas at ING.

    The current situation suggests that markets have already priced in some of the potential outcome. "If the numbers are close to what we expected, there is a chance we could see some reaction to lower yields, which could introduce an element of vulnerability," Garvey added.

    Fed in no rush to change rates
    While investors ponder the impact of the new data, officials at the US Federal Reserve are showing caution. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he believes rate cuts are inevitable in the future, but stressed there is no need to act hastily. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, on the other hand, took a harder line, arguing against any immediate rate move.

    These statements reflect polarized views within the Fed, but markets have already adjusted their expectations. Traders are now forecasting a 43 basis point rate cut in 2025. However, adding to the nervousness are concerns that possible policies of President Donald Trump, including inflation programs, could spur a rise in long-term yields.

    Bond yields rise, dollar strengthens
    The current situation in the bond market shows a steady rise in yields. The benchmark yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose by 1.5 basis points, reaching 4.6957%. Although this is slightly below the peak of 4.73% recorded earlier in the week, analysts are closely watching the critical level of 4.739%. If it is broken, the path to the 5% mark could open for the first time since 2007.

    At the same time, the dollar is strengthening. The dollar index continues to rise for the sixth week in a row, reaching the level of 109.30. This is due to the rise in Treasury yields, which amounted to 9 basis points this week.

    On the verge of change?
    The current situation in the market reflects tense anticipation. Investors and analysts are bracing for the employment report to provide new momentum that will either reinforce current trends or force markets to adjust their expectations. Either way, Friday's numbers will be an important guide to future economic and investment decisions.

    Pressure on the pound, rising commodity prices
    Amid concerns about the health of the British economy, the pound continues to weaken, with UK government bond yields reaching multi-year highs. At the same time, commodity markets are showing gains, with oil and gold prices rising despite a general decline in Asian stock indices.

    The British pound under pressure
    The pound remains under pressure, having fallen 0.2% on Friday to $1.2278, its lowest since November 2023. The currency has lost 1.1% of its value over the week. Meanwhile, UK government bond yields, which reached a 16.5-year high, have retreated somewhat, but remain a concern.

    Oil and gold markets in positive territory
    Oil prices ended the week with positive dynamics. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.5% to $74.32 per barrel, giving it a weekly gain of 0.5%.

    Gold prices were no less impressive: the metal rose 1.3% over the week, reaching $2,674.44 per ounce, which is close to its highest levels since December. These movements indicate growing investor interest in safe assets amid general uncertainty.

    Asian markets fall
    Asian stock markets ended the week on a minor note. Japan's Nikkei index lost 0.9% on Friday, bringing its weekly loss to 1.6%. The broad MSCI Asia-Pacific index of shares fell 0.5%, and its weekly loss amounted to 1.2%.

    Chinese stock markets are also showing weakness, with the blue-chip CSI300 index falling 0.4% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng down 0.5%. The declines are linked to rising Chinese government bond yields after the country's central bank said it would temporarily suspend Treasury purchases due to a shortage.

    Global sentiment remains tense
    The overall picture in the markets is that investors are in a holding pattern. Amid weakness in stock markets and tensions over macroeconomic data, attention is focused on the upcoming US employment data. The report could set a new direction for bonds, currencies and commodities.

    Global markets under pressure as investors await US employment report
    Global stock and bond markets continue to show volatility amid expectations for key US employment data. US stock index futures are falling while bond yields are reaching new highs.

    US markets pause, futures lose ground
    Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% after the US trading session was suspended for the funeral of former President Jimmy Carter. Meanwhile, Europe is expected to open flat, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

    Bond Market: Yields at multi-year highs
    Tensions are rising in the bond market. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note approached 4.739%, above which further gains could be triggered. The yield on the 30-year note rose 11 basis points in a week, reaching its highest in a year.

    In the UK, the government debt situation is also causing concern, with bond yields soaring to their highest since 2008 amid doubts about the sustainability of the country's fiscal policy. Despite some relief, the market remains at risk.

    Chinese Yuan Under Pressure, Bond Yields Rise
    China's central bank has temporarily suspended purchases of Treasury bonds, citing a shortage. However, analysts believe the move is aimed at supporting the national currency, the yuan, which is facing pressure. As a result, Chinese bond yields also rose.

    Employment Report: Key Indicator of the Week
    All eyes are on the upcoming US employment report. Forecasts suggest a 160,000 job gain in December, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. However, the range of expectations is quite wide, from 120,000 to 200,000, which leaves room for surprises.

    Adding to the uncertainty is the annual revision of household survey data, which could adjust unemployment statistics for recent months. This increases the likelihood that the report will have a stronger impact on the markets.

    Global Markets Hold Their Breath
    Markets are in a holding pattern as the jobs report could provide fresh impetus for U.S. bonds, the dollar and global stock indexes. Ahead of the data, investors and analysts are bracing for the possibility that a surprise result could be a catalyst for significant change.

    Key Report Could Be a Game Changer
    The upcoming US employment data could be a game changer for global markets. Strong numbers could accelerate the rise in US bond yields and strengthen the dollar, while weak numbers could raise new questions about the health of the global economy.

    Breakthrough to 5%: Bond yields on the threshold of historic highs
    If the report beats expectations, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note could exceed the important level of 4.739%, opening the way to a psychologically significant 5%. This figure has not been seen since 2007 and would be a powerful signal for bears, strengthening their position in the market.

    Rising yields will put additional pressure on emerging markets, where the dollar is already playing a destructive role. The US currency, which is at a two-year high, continues to deepen financial problems in economies dependent on external debt.

    High rates are a threat to stocks
    The stock market could also react negatively. Higher bond yields and rising discount rates are calling into question lofty valuations, potentially triggering a sell-off. Investors facing rising risks can no longer count on stable stock growth without taking into account new macroeconomic realities.
     
  3. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    The main events by the morning: January 13

    57.3% of Greenlanders support joining the United States, 37.4% are against, according to a survey by NPO Patriot Polling. The survey was conducted during Donald Trump Jr.'s visit to Greenland, but the sample was small – only 416 participants, which casts doubt on the representativeness of the data.

    New US sanctions have affected 15% of Russian coal production. The list includes the companies Kuzbassrazrezugol Explosion and Krasnoyarsk Krai Coal. Only one of the companies on the sanctions list operates both for the domestic market and for export, but even this puts significant pressure on the coal industry. Experts note that making payments for supplies is becoming increasingly difficult.

    Oil prices exceeded $81 per barrel, reaching a four-month high. The strengthening of quotations is due to new US sanctions against Russia, which are expected to limit crude oil exports to China and India. Since January 8, oil prices have increased by more than 6%.

    The FBI warns of Chinese cyber threats. According to the agency's director, Chinese hackers have introduced malware into critical U.S. infrastructure facilities, including sewage treatment plants, energy networks, natural gas pipelines, and telecommunications systems. Such attacks pose a serious threat to national security.

    India has refused to buy Russian oil from companies and vessels subject to sanctions. Delhi adheres to a strict position, not accepting oil from tankers subject to sanctions. There are also problems with supplies to China: Three tankers with 2 million barrels of Russian oil were detained in waters off the east coast of China after the introduction of US restrictions.
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  4. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    The main events by the morning: January 14

    A campaign to impose new sanctions against Russian gas and LNG is gaining momentum in Europe. Ten countries, including Sweden, Ireland, Poland and the three Baltic states, are calling for drastic measures that, in their opinion, should sever the last energy ties between Russia and the European Union. Although Russia's oil and pipeline gas exports to Europe have declined, LNG shipments reached record levels in 2024, suggesting that the region remains heavily dependent on Russian energy resources.

    Republicans In the USA have prepared a bill on the purchase of Greenland. It is planned to be considered after Trump takes office as president. The document is called the «Make Greenland Great Again Act» and has already been supported by 10 congressmen. If the bill is passed, negotiations could begin as early as January 20. This is an ambitious project that could have serious geopolitical consequences.

    Moscow has received about 3 billion euros in tax revenue from EU companies doing business in Russia. According to Politico, among the 1,600 foreign companies studied that continue to operate in Russia, about 930 are from the EU and the G7. 827 of them are European companies that continue to pay taxes in Russia. Their total revenue in Russia amounted to $81.4 billion.

    Germany has launched an investigation into Elon Musk on suspicion of election interference. After a series of provocative posts by the billionaire on the social network X, the Bundestag initiated an investigation into the illegal sponsorship of the Alternative for Germany party by an American businessman who spent at least $75 million to support Trump during the US election campaign.

    Armenia has announced its intention to conclude a strategic partnership agreement with the United States. Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will sign the document on January 14 in Washington. Armenia also supported the draft law on the start of the EU accession process, but Russia has already warned that simultaneous membership in the EU and the EAEU is impossible.
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  5. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    The main events by the morning: January 15

    Damage from fires in California continues to grow and may reach $275 billion. Damage estimates are increasing almost daily: according to the meteorological agency AccuWeather, the amount has increased from $150 billion to $250-275 billion per day. Meanwhile, firefighters continue to fight the fire.

    Inflation in Russia may accelerate to 9.8% by the end of 2024. This is the fifth year in a row that the Bank of Russia has failed to meet its 4% target. Analysts note that the weakening of the ruble and rising inflation expectations worsen the prospects for the economy in the first quarter.

    The current president has been arrested in South Korea for the first time. Yoon Suk-yeol, who was suspended from his duties but formally remains in office, was detained with the participation of 200 police officers and 40 investigators. The arrest was preceded by a clash with his security service, which delayed the operation.

    The SEC has filed a lawsuit against Elon Musk. The regulator's claims are related to the fact that Musk did not provide the necessary documents when buying Twitter. Donald Trump's closest associate called the SEC's actions «senseless» and suggested focusing on real crimes.

    The EU may include restrictions on Russian LNG in the 16th package of sanctions. The European Union is discussing a gradual cessation of imports of liquefied natural gas from Russia. The new measures also include restrictions on the supply of Russian aluminum, the disconnection of several banks from SWIFT, as well as sanctions against dozens of Russian vessels.
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  6. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    Gold reached a monthly peak amid dollar weakness and expectations of rate cuts

    The price of gold reached its highest level in the last month during trading in Asia on Thursday. This was due to the weakening of the dollar and lower yields on Treasury bonds, which resulted from the publication of less alarming data on consumer inflation. Such indicators have strengthened the expectations of market participants regarding a possible reduction in interest rates this year.

    February gold futures increased in price by 0.26%, reaching the level of $2,738 per ounce. At the same time, spot gold returned to its previous values after the morning jump and was trading at $2,709 per ounce.

    This increase is due to hopes that slowing inflation and easing labor market tensions may provide the Fed with an opportunity to lower rates in the near future.

    But despite this optimism, further growth in the value of gold proved to be limited. The reason for this was the weakening demand for safe haven assets caused by the signing of a cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas with the support of the United States.

    In addition, investors' attention was focused on the upcoming economic reports from the United States, which restrained the fall of the dollar. Preparations for the inauguration of the new President of the United States, Donald Trump, scheduled for Monday, added to the uncertainty.
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  7. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    Markets under pressure: What do China GDP numbers and US unemployment mean?

    Slowing amid optimistic expectations
    US stocks faced a wave of corrections on Thursday after an impressive jump the day before. Investors cautiously analyzed fresh economic data and corporate earnings reports, trying to guess what the Federal Reserve will do next regarding interest rates.

    Inflation figures released earlier calmed market participants, dispelling concerns about a possible resurgence of price pressure. In addition, strong banking sector earnings on Wednesday became the catalyst for the largest one-day gain in indices since early November.

    New Data Adds Uncertainty
    However, Thursday brought cautious optimism. Stocks were mixed, reflecting investor hesitancy. Economic data confirmed that Americans continue to spend vigorously and the labor market remains resilient. These factors suggest that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain a gradual approach to rate cuts through 2025.

    Market Gainers and Losers
    On the corporate front, Morgan Stanley (MS.N) results were a positive sign, with shares rising 4.03% on strong fourth-quarter earnings. M&A activity played a key role in the gains. Meanwhile, Bank of America (BAC.N) lost 0.98% despite forecasting interest income growth in 2025, reflecting challenging market expectations.

    Looking Ahead
    Investors continue to closely monitor macroeconomic data and corporate results to determine the direction of the market. The current situation highlights the need for a balanced approach, where each new piece of information can become a decisive factor in making investment decisions.

    Indices fall: cautious optimism gives way to anxiety
    US stock indices ended Thursday on a minor note. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) lost 68.42 points (0.16%), falling to 43,153.13. The S&P 500 (.SPX) also fell by 12.57 points (0.21%), ending the session at 5,937.34. And the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) showed a more significant fall - 172.94 points (0.89%), closing at 19,338.29.

    Signals from the Fed: hope for rate cuts
    Investors focused on statements by Federal Reserve member Christopher Waller. He noted that the regulator may begin to cut interest rates faster than expected if inflation continues to decline. This statement caused Treasury yields to decline, reflecting growing expectations for monetary easing.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell by 3.8 basis points, reaching 4.615%. Meanwhile, futures contracts point to a likely 25 basis point cut by the Fed by May 2025.

    Tough dynamics: markets seek balance
    Stock markets are going through a difficult time after the wave of growth caused by the midterm elections in the US. Although the S&P 500 index showed a decline in four of the previous five weeks, the current week promises to end on a positive note.

    However, the resilience of the economy and slowing inflation create a dual effect. On the one hand, they provide grounds for a more gradual rate cut, but on the other, they raise concerns that the Fed will act more cautiously than market participants expect.

    Looking Ahead: How Markets Are Adapting to the New Reality
    The market continues to balance between signals of monetary easing and the resilience of the economy, which could prolong the period of high rates. Investors are waiting for new data to better understand the outlook for market and monetary policy movements in 2025.

    Tariffs and Inflation: The New Administration Raises Questions
    Investors are anxiously watching developments around the economic policies of President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office on Monday. The proposed tariff measures, which are actively discussed in Washington, raise concerns that they could lead to increased inflationary pressure in the country.

    Trump's nominee for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made statements reaffirming the need to preserve the dollar as the world's reserve currency and the independence of the Federal Reserve. At the same time, he stressed the need to tighten sanctions against the Russian oil sector, warning of the risk of "economic catastrophe" if the 2017 tax breaks are not extended until the end of this year.

    Corporate News: Dow and Nasdaq Under Pressure
    UnitedHealth (UNH.N) shares fell, dragging the Dow down more than 201 points after weak fourth-quarter revenue fell short of analysts' forecasts.

    The Nasdaq also suffered significant losses, led by a 4.04% drop in Apple (AAPL.O) shares. Apple is set to lose its position as China's largest smartphone seller to Vivo and Huawei in 2024, according to research firm Canalys, a worrying sign for investors.

    New Highs and Lows: Trading Results
    Despite the challenges, U.S. stock markets posted both new gains and losses. The S&P 500 posted 21 new 52-week highs and nine new lows. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite posted 58 new highs, but with a noticeable downside bias — 101 new lows.

    The ratio of advancers to decliners was 1.81 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.07 to 1 on the Nasdaq, reflecting the advantage of positive moves.

    Trading Volumes: Activity Declining
    Total trading volume on U.S. exchanges was 14.31 billion shares, below the average of 15.75 billion over the past 20 trading days. The decline in volumes may indicate growing caution on the part of market participants amid expectations of political changes and corporate earnings.

    Chinese Markets: Disappointment Despite Growth
    Chinese markets ended the week with sluggish dynamics despite the published GDP data that exceeded forecasts. The Celestial Empire's economy showed growth of 5%, reaching Beijing's target for 2024. However, the figures failed to inspire investors who had been expecting more momentum to recover from a period of economic uncertainty.

    Japan: Yen Strength Under Pressure on Stocks
    Japanese stocks (.N225) also struggled. The key factor was the strengthening yen, which rose above 155 per dollar for the first time in a month. The move raised expectations that the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates at its upcoming meeting, putting additional pressure on export-oriented companies.

    MSCI Global Index: False Appearance of Growth
    The MSCI Global Equity Index (.MIWD00000PUS) posted its best weekly performance since early November, but the bulk of that gain came on a single day: Wednesday. Then, strong results from major US banks set a confident tone for the earnings season, providing a short-lived surge in optimism.

    Political Uncertainty: Trump Inauguration in Focus
    As Donald Trump's inauguration approaches, markets remain tense. Investors are concerned that his first speech as US President and possible immediate executive orders could change market sentiment. Potential new tariffs against allies and rivals alike remain a major threat to global trade.

    Bond yields: relief for investors
    A sharp decline in bond yields, driven by growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut by June, has come as a pleasant surprise to global investors. However, the decline has yet to provide much support to the stock market, which remains cautious.

    Dollar weakness: pause after six-week rally
    Foreign exchange markets are showing an unusual pattern in recent weeks, with the dollar, which had previously been rising steadily for six weeks, losing momentum and coming under pressure. This change has led traders to focus more on macroeconomic data, which remains a key benchmark for market participants.

    Pound and euro find support
    The British pound, which had been under heavy pressure, managed to settle higher by the end of the week. The euro is also showing similar dynamics, which has caught the bears by surprise, who had forecast the single currency falling to parity with the dollar. The strengthening of both currencies adds optimism to European markets, which are gradually starting to emerge from the shadow of the US dollar.

    Key data: retail sales and inflation
    The European economic calendar is eventful today. The UK is to publish retail sales figures for December, which could shed light on the resilience of consumer demand in the face of high inflation. The eurozone is to present its final consumer inflation report for December, which will be an important indicator for assessing the monetary policy of the European Central Bank.

    Speech by the head of the Bank of Spain
    Attention will also be focused on the speech of the head of the Bank of Spain, Jose Luis Escriva, in Madrid. His speech will focus on the role of central bank independence in the current economic landscape. Escriva is also expected to touch on the current challenges facing financial regulators in the face of turbulent global markets.

    Forex Market Outlook
    Investors continue to assess changes in the macroeconomic environment that could impact future currency dynamics. Key data released today, as well as rhetoric from financial institutions, will set the direction for major global currencies in the coming weeks.
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  8. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    Trump. Season 2: Intrigue, rates and a cryptocurrency with his own name

    New rate: dollar stable, Asian markets cautiously optimistic
    The dollar continued to show resilience on Monday, while Asian stock markets expressed cautious optimism. Investors were tensely awaiting Donald Trump's first steps in his second term, and speculated that Japan could revise its key rate this week.

    Trump's inauguration and statements
    Donald Trump will be sworn in at noon ET (17:00 GMT). At a rally on Sunday, he declared the beginning of a "whole new era of American strength," fueling expectations for his first decisions of the new term.

    The president has promised to sign about a hundred executive orders in the first hours after the inauguration. Key initiatives include pledges to deport illegal immigrants, cut red tape, and make active use of the country's energy resources.

    On Friday, Trump demonstrated his trademark unpredictability by launching a digital token. He also unexpectedly promised to "save" the popular Chinese app TikTok, which under new legislation has been banned in the United States on national security grounds.

    Economic Signals and Foreign Policy
    With U.S. financial markets closed for a holiday on Monday, the reaction to the presidential inauguration is likely to come later, starting with the currency market. Traders are paying particular attention to the prospects for changes in Washington's tariff policy. The impact of new economic steps could become apparent as early as Tuesday, when Asian markets open.

    Trump also showed a willingness to maneuver diplomatically: His phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday was reportedly constructive.

    Market Reaction
    As of Monday morning, U.S. stock futures in Asia were slightly lower. The dollar, which has been strengthening since the fall on the back of positive economic data and a successful Trump election campaign, remained stable.

    Asian investors are cautious, analyzing the potential impact of the first decisions of Trump's new term and the upcoming meeting of the Japanese central bank.

    Asian stocks rise, dollar remains strong
    Japan's Nikkei index (.N225) showed a 1% gain on Monday, setting a positive tone in the region. Investors' attention is focused on the U.S. economic agenda and key statistics that could influence the future outlook for markets.

    U.S. indices gain
    U.S. stock indices pleased investors last week, with the S&P 500 (.SPX) posting its best weekly gain since November and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) posting its biggest gain since December. The results came after data showed inflation was slowing, supporting optimism about the strength of the U.S. economy.

    Dollar: Strength Continues
    The US dollar remains strong, up 14% against the euro since September. It was at $1.0273 on Monday, close to a two-year high. However, experts warn that markets have priced in potential tariff hikes, which could limit further gains.

    Trump Tariffs: New Threats to Global Trade
    President Trump has taken an aggressive stance on tariffs, threatening 10% tariffs on global imports, 60% tariffs on goods from China, and a 25% surcharge on Canadian and Mexican goods. Trade experts warn that such measures could disrupt global supply chains, raise costs for companies, and trigger retaliatory sanctions from affected countries.

    Impact on Canadian and Mexican Markets
    The Canadian dollar hit a five-year low on Monday, falling to $1.4486 per US dollar. The Mexican peso also came under pressure, hitting a 2.5-year low of 20.94 per dollar on Friday. The moves underscore the unease surrounding the currencies of the US's neighbors amid tariff uncertainty.

    Cryptocurrencies and Bonds: New Trends
    Bitcoin slipped early in Asian trading but remained above $100,000, remaining attractive to investors despite volatility. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note ended last week at 4.61%, up nearly 100 basis points in the past four months.

    Amid a tense global economic environment, market attention remains focused on the actions of the US. The outlook for tariffs and inflation will shape the agenda for the coming weeks, as investors continue to analyze the impact of these factors on global financial flows.

    Trade Policy: China in Focus
    China remains at the center of the trade standoff, with the United States seeing it as a prime target for tough tariffs. Meanwhile, investors are welcoming positive economic data from China that beat expectations, fueling interest in regional markets.

    How will Trump and Xi Jinping's relationship play out?

    The economic and political ties between the United States and China play a key role in analysts' forecasts. Ken Peng, head of Asia investment strategy at Citi Wealth, noted that the outcome of the talks and interaction between the two leaders, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, will be the most important indicators of future trade policy.

    "Their personal relationship now plays the role of not only a political but also an economic indicator," Peng emphasized during a briefing in Singapore.

    Chinese markets show confidence
    Amid positive economic data, Chinese stock indices ended last week with growth. Futures also pointed to a cautious rise in Hong Kong stocks at the open.

    The Chinese yuan is showing resilience, settling at 7.3355 per dollar in offshore trading. However, it may take time to adjust to the new trading conditions.

    Australian dollar: Exposure to China's economy
    The Australian dollar, closely linked to China's trade flows, has started to recover from a five-year low. The currency could strengthen to $0.6322 if Trump's tariff plans are less aggressive than expected, according to Joe Capurso, a strategist at the Commonwealth Bank. For now, the rate has stabilized around $0.62.

    Japanese yen and rate expectations
    The Japanese yen strengthened last week on signals from the Bank of Japan that were seen as preparations for a rate hike. Markets say there is about an 80% chance of a 25 basis point hike on Friday. The yen remained stable on Monday, trading at 156.17 per dollar.

    The development of US-China trade policy in the coming weeks could be a key factor for global markets. With global leaders' meetings and central bank decisions in focus, investors continue to assess the long-term outlook.

    Commodity and crypto markets: new trends and unexpected moves
    Commodity prices continue to show stability. Gold remains at $2,694 per ounce, while Brent crude rose to $81.21 per barrel. However, it was the unexpected activity in the cryptocurrency sector associated with Donald Trump that attracted the most attention.

    Cryptocurrency $TRUMP: explosive debut
    The new cryptocurrency issued by Donald Trump has become a sensation. On Monday, it soared by 73%, reaching a price of $46.06 per token, leading to a market capitalization of about $9.2 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. In just 24 hours, the trading volume was an impressive $42.2 billion.

    Initiated as a meme coin, the $TRUMP token quickly attracted the attention of not only investors but also the crypto community. The move expands Trump's presence in digital finance, which already includes World Liberty Financial. The launch of the meme coin coincided with his return to the US presidency, adding interest to the project.

    Questions of influence: Regulators are monitoring the situation
    The sharp rise in the value of $TRUMP has raised questions about the influence of public figures on speculative markets. Justin D'Anetan, an independent crypto analyst based in Hong Kong, expressed concern about how political leaders can influence such assets.

    "Can public figures use their influence in such situations? This is an issue that regulators cannot ignore," he said.

    Cryptocurrencies as the new "digital gold"
    Peter Schiff, chief economist at Euro Pacific Asset Management, compared $TRUMP to the "new digital gold," highlighting its phenomenal growth. While experts debate the coin's long-term prospects, its rapid rise has become a landmark event in the world of digital assets.

    "Crypto President" and Promises of Reform
    Donald Trump has already announced his intention to become a "crypto president." In his new role, he plans to issue executive orders that will simplify regulation of the cryptocurrency industry and create conditions for its development. This announcement has increased interest in his cryptocurrency projects, as well as in the broader prospects for the introduction of digital assets into the economy.

    Inauguration Intrigue and the Future of Cryptocurrency
    Today at noon ET (17:00 GMT), Donald Trump will officially take office as president. His first decisions in his new term, especially related to cryptocurrency, will be closely watched by the markets, as they could set a new direction for the digital economy.

    Trump's crypto debut, combined with his plans for the presidency, promises to be a key topic not only for investors but also for regulators. A new wave of digital assets is poised to change global financial flows, and the ambitions of the new US leader could play a key role in this.

    Crypto Markets Resurface: Policy Loosening Brings Optimism
    Donald Trump's plans to loosen regulations in the cryptocurrency industry have caused a strong response in the community. Following his election victory in November, leading digital assets, including Bitcoin, have begun to show significant growth, reflecting market expectations.

    Bitcoin: A Steady Rise
    Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, is showing resilience in a volatile environment. On Monday, it traded at $101,826.51, down 2.6% from its previous high, but up more than 10% in a month. This growth suggests that investors are optimistic about the prospects for the new cryptocurrency policy promised by Trump.
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  9. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    The main events by the morning: January 21

    Upon assuming the office of President of the United States, Donald Trump signed a number of decrees that marked fundamental changes in the country's political course. Among his first decisions are the cancellation of 78 decrees issued by his predecessor Joe Biden, as well as the US withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement.

    The President-elect of the United States immediately took action after taking office. One of Trump's first steps was to pardon 1,500 people convicted of participating in the storming of the Capitol in January 2021. He also temporarily suspended all U.S. foreign aid programs for 90 days and announced the country's withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO).

    Trump has announced a number of initiatives that will determine the future economic and foreign policy of the United States. He announced the introduction of 100% trade duties for the BRICS countries, as well as 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, which will take effect on February 1. In addition, the president announced the cessation of oil purchases from Venezuela and demanded that NATO countries increase defense spending to 5% of their GDP.

    About Russia and Ukraine: «We will try to put an end to the Ukrainian conflict as soon as possible.» Trump noted that he would understand the possible timing of the end of the conflict in Ukraine only after a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. When asked about the prospect of maintaining sanctions, Trump said he considered tariffs to be more effective. He also promised an early conversation with Putin and reiterated that Zelensky is ready for a deal with the Russian Federation.

    Bitcoin has fallen from record peaks amid the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies. The cryptocurrency markets were waiting for some decrees from Trump, but in his speech, the president did not mention either the industry or bitcoin. As a result, BTC fell from yesterday's high of $109,000 to an area near $100,000. The TRUMP and MELANIA memecoins, which caused a stir in the crypto market in recent days, also lost most of their growth.
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  10. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    The main events by the morning: January 22

    Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin had a video conversation. The leaders of Russia and China noted that by the end of 2024, the countries' trade turnover reached a record high of $245 billion, an increase of 7%. Xi and Putin again called each other «dear friends,» and the Chinese president expressed his willingness to take the countries' relations to a new level.

    India will buy more oil from the United States after anti-Russian sanctions, and payments for Russian oil are delayed. India is now one of the 2 largest buyers of Russian oil. Sanctions against Russian tankers are hindering supplies, and restrictions on payments are causing Indian banks to question their interpretation.

    The Bank of Russia has been asked to oblige banks to compensate citizens for monetary losses caused by fraudsters. «A Just Russia – For Truth» has made a corresponding request to the regulator. The faction believes that against the background of an increase in the volume of embezzlement from Russians, it is necessary to introduce additional mechanisms to protect and support the population.

    Trump is destroying all the Democrats' efforts to protect inclusivity. The new president's administration will send all employees of the federal services for diversity, equality and inclusivity on leave. Among other things, agencies must stop employee training related to DEI, as well as terminate contracts related to it.

    The United States will begin to develop artificial intelligence at the state level. Trump announced the creation of Stargate, a joint venture between OpenAI, SoftBank and Oracle. The firm is investing at least $500 billion in AI development, and the president has promised to support the company with emergency orders.
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