Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

GBP/USD H4 Chart Analysis: Bearish Channel Dominates

The GBP/USD currency pair, often nicknamed "Cable," reflects the exchange rate between the British Pound and the US Dollar. As one of the most traded pairs in the forex market, it is influenced heavily by macroeconomic data, central bank policies, and global economic conditions.
The GBP/USD fundamental analysis today suggests heightened volatility as several key economic indicators and events come into focus. For the GBP, the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI), including its core and retail components, is due, and its actual numbers exceeding forecasts could boost the pound due to inflationary pressures supporting a potential rate hike by the Bank of England. Additionally, BOE Deputy Governor David Ramsden's speech on monetary policy could provide clues about future interest rate trajectories. Meanwhile, on the USD side, Federal Reserve Governors Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman will speak on monetary and economic policies, likely influencing the dollar's strength, especially if hawkish tones dominate. This mix of inflation data and high-level speeches could set the tone for Cable's forecast today, particularly as the pair struggles against bearish pressures.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The GBP/USD H4 chart shows that the pair is firmly entrenched in a bearish parallel channel, with prices trading below the Ichimoku Cloud, signaling a sustained GBPUSD bearish trend. Additionally, a recent crossover on the Stochastic RSI indicates bullish divergence in oversold territory, hinting at a potential short-term corrective bounce. However, the prevailing bearish structure within the channel remains intact, suggesting sellers are still dominant. The market's inability to break above the cloud or the upper boundary of the channel could reinforce the pair’s bearish sentiment and lead to a continuation of the downtrend. Traders should monitor key support at 1.2650 and resistance near the upper channel trendline for potential trade setups.


• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

USDJPY H4 Chart Insights and Price Action

The USD JPY currency pair, often referred to by its nickname, the "Ninja," represents the dynamic relationship between the US Dollar (USD) and the Japanese Yen (JPY). Known for its liquidity and sensitivity to monetary policies, it is a popular choice among forex traders seeking volatility and trends.
Today, the USDJPY is poised to respond to several critical events, including speeches from Federal Reserve officials like Susan Collins, Beth Hammack, and Austan Goolsbee. These speeches are expected to provide subtle cues on future US monetary policy, which could strengthen the USD if hawkish sentiments dominate. Additionally, US unemployment claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will offer insights into labor market health and economic activity. On the JPY side, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's speech could hint at any shifts in Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy, further influencing the pair. Traders should watch for volatility, especially if Collins' or Hammack's comments diverge from expectations, potentially pushing USD JPY toward key support or resistance levels.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The USD/JPY H4 chart displays a bullish trend, with the price currently trading above the Ichimoku cloud, a clear indication of upward momentum. Out of the last 10 candles, 6 are bullish, reinforcing the current positive sentiment. The price sits between the 0 and 0.236 Fibonacci retracement levels, suggesting potential room for further upside within this trend channel. The Williams %R indicator is hovering near the overbought zone, signaling a possible pullback or consolidation phase before another upward move. Traders should monitor the lower boundary of the channel for potential support and the upper boundary for breakout opportunities.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

EURGBP Analysis: Bearish Momentum in the H4 Chart Review

The EURGBP currency pair, often nicknamed "Chunnel" due to the financial and economic link between Europe and the UK, represents the exchange rate between the Euro (EUR) and the British Pound (GBP). The pair’s news outlook is heavily influenced by economic data releases and political developments in the Eurozone and the UK. The interplay between the ECB and BoE policies, combined with fluctuating economic sentiment, makes Chunnel an essential pair for both intraday and long-term traders.
Today’s EUR/GBP fundamental analysis highlights key data releases that could drive the pair’s price. For GBP, the GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Retail Sales, and Flash PMI are due. Stronger-than-expected consumer confidence or retail sales figures would bolster the pound, signaling robust consumer spending—a critical GDP driver. Similarly, PMI data over 50 would indicate business optimism, potentially strengthening GBP. On the EUR side, manufacturing and services PMI data are critical, as numbers above 50 would indicate economic expsion. Additionally, ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech could provide forward guidance on monetary policy, influencing EUR movements. With both currencies facing impactful data, traders should brace for volatility.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The H4 chart of EURGBP indicates the pair’s bearish trend, with the price trading within a descending channel. The MACD histogram shows negative momentum, with the signal line staying below the MACD line, reinforcing EURGBP’s bearish outlook. Meanwhile, the RSI hovers near 46, suggesting neutral to mild bearish momentum but not yet oversold conditions. The descending channel provides resistance around 0.8350 and support near 0.8280, outlining a confined trading range. The pair’s price movements within this channel reflect sustained selling pressure, though a breakout could signal a potential trend reversal.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

NZD/USD Trends Ahead of New Zealand News Impact

The NZD/USD currency pair, often nicknamed the “Kiwi,” represents the New Zealand Dollar versus the United States Dollar and is a highly liquid forex pair. It’s influenced by the economic fundamentals of both New Zealand and the US. Today, key news from Statistics New Zealand includes Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales data, both primary indicators of consumer spending. These reports, released quarterly, play a crucial role in gauging consumer confidence and economic strength. Additionally, the Overseas Merchandise Trade figures, highlighting the balance of trade, will provide insight into New Zealand's export health. Strong data releases above forecasts can bolster the NZD, potentially reducing bearish pressures on the Kiwi.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The H4 chart indicates a recent bearish trend; however, the last five candles show signs of recovery, with four bullish candles, including the latest one as the market reopened for the week. The current price is attempting to break into the Ichimoku red cloud, which has narrowed—a potential sign of weakening resistance. The NZD USD price is currently between the 0.236 and 0.382 Fibonacci retracement levels, showing a modest recovery. The Williams %R indicator is at -38.51, leaning towards an overbought zone but still providing room for upward momentum. The bullish sentiment in recent candles suggests buyers might be testing resistance levels in the cloud, potentially eyeing further upside if upcoming news supports NZD strength.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

EUR/USD H4 Analysis: Bearish Trend Prevails Below Ichimoku Cloud

The EUR/USD forex pair, often referred to as "Fiber," is the most traded currency pair in the world, representing the economic interplay between the Eurozone and the United States. The EURUSD prices serve as a barometer for global economic stability, influenced by key macroeconomic factors and central bank policies. As the week unfolds, traders are focusing on high-impact U.S. economic data such as the GDP second release, durable goods orders, and weekly unemployment claims, which hold the potential to drive the dollar's momentum.
Today's Fiber Fundamental analysis, including the U.S. GDP second release, is anticipated to confirm robust economic growth, signaling continued strength in the U.S. economy. Durable goods orders, particularly excluding transportation, could provide further clues about manufacturing health and production outlooks. If these indicators outperform forecasts, it would reinforce the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, boosting the dollar and exerting bearish pressure on EUR/USD. On the European side, GfK consumer confidence data will gauge sentiment in the Eurozone. With the Eurozone's economic backdrop remaining relatively muted, traders are likely to remain cautious ahead of these events.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The H4 EUR/USD chart exhibits a clear bearish trend, as indicated by the price trading below the Ichimoku cloud. This EURUSD bearish bias aligns with the downward-sloping price channel, suggesting continued selling pressure in the near term. The RSI indicator is currently at 48.62, residing in the neutral zone, indicating a lack of strong momentum in either direction. However, it also highlights the possibility of a consolidation phase before the next significant move.
The Ichimoku cloud's resistance near the 1.0500 level acts as a significant barrier for bullish attempts, while the price's failure to reclaim this level underscores bearish control. With the RSI failing to break above 50, buyers appear hesitant. A potential breakdown below 1.0440 could open the door for further downside toward the lower boundary of the descending channel around 1.0360. Conversely, a breakout above the cloud and channel resistance could trigger a short-term reversal.


• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

EURAUD H4 Technical Setup with Fundamental Drivers

The EURAUD forex pair, often referred to as the "Euro Aussie," represents the exchange rate of the Euro (EUR) to the Australian Dollar (AUD). This pair combines the stability of the Eurozone economy with the commodity-driven volatility of the Australian Dollar, making it a dynamic instrument for traders.
Today, the European consumer inflation data, including the German and Eurozone CPI releases, will dominate market sentiment. Higher-than-expected inflation numbers can strengthen the Euro as traders anticipate a more hawkish stance from the ECB. Conversely, dovish implications could arise from subdued CPI figures. On the Australian side, the RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s speech could influence sentiment, particularly if she signals a divergence in policy tone. The upcoming private capital expenditure report is another key release, with strong figures likely boosting AUD strength. With inflation and monetary policies as central themes, EURAUD could experience heightened volatility during today’s trading sessions.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The EURAUD pair on the H4 chart has shown bearish momentum recently, with seven out of the last twenty candles being bearish. A bullish reversal is in progress as the price breaks above the Ichimoku Cloud—a bullish signal. The Ichimoku Cloud has turned green but remains thin, reflecting weak bullish momentum. The price is currently trading between the 0.382 and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels. While it briefly touched the 0.5 level, it failed to break through. A successful breach of this level could see the price rally toward the 0.618 Fibonacci level, with potential to extend toward the 1.0 level. However, the Williams %R indicator signals overbought conditions, cautioning against aggressive bullish positions. Traders should monitor for a confirmed breakout or a rejection at these resistance levels.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

EURCAD Analysis: MACD Crossover Supports Bullish Momentum

The EUR/CAD currency pair, sometimes referred to as "Euro-Loonie," represents the exchange rate between the Euro, the official currency of the Eurozone, and the Canadian Dollar, the official currency of Canada. The EURCAD prices are often seen as a barometer for economic trends between the Eurozone and Canada, two major global economies. As traders look to assess the relative strength of these currencies, EURCAD provides insight into the broader health of the global economy, driven by both regions' economic data and geopolitical factors.
The Eurozone's economic landscape today sees a mixed bag of data, with several reports expected to have an impact on EUR value. Notably, Eurozone retail sales and CPI data, as well as inflation reports from countries like Germany and France, could offer signals about future ECB monetary policy. As consumer spending and inflation in the Eurozone remain key drivers of future ECB rate decisions, any positive surprises in retail sales or inflation figures could push the EUR higher. In contrast, Canada is awaiting GDP data which, if stronger than expected, could provide support for the Canadian Dollar. The performance of CAD may be further influenced by oil price fluctuations, as Canada is a major oil exporter. The potential for stronger economic growth in Canada relative to the Eurozone could weigh on EUR/CAD’s forecast today.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Looking at the EURCAD H4 chart, we get a look at the Euro-Loonie’s technical outlook where the Parabolic SAR is currently signaling the pair’s bullish trend, with its dots positioned below the price action. This suggests that the momentum remains positive, indicating that EUR may continue to outperform CAD in the short term. Meanwhile, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is showing a bullish crossover, with the MACD line moving above the signal line, reinforcing the idea of EURCAD’s upward price action. This combination of indicators suggests that EURCAD may continue to rise, particularly if the price maintains its position above key support levels. Traders should watch for any reversal signals or sudden shifts in momentum, particularly if upcoming Eurozone or Canadian data surprises the market.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

AUDUSD Price Action and Fibonacci Retracement Overview


The AUDUSD, often referred to as the "Aussie," is a widely traded currency pair representing the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar. The pair is heavily influenced by global commodity prices, especially metals and energy, as Australia is a major exporter. Today's market focus revolves around key US and Australian data, including the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from the US and the Melbourne Institute Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Australia. The USD is expected to react strongly to PMI figures, which provide insights into manufacturing activity, while Australia's CPI will give clues about inflation trends.
Fundamentally, the AUDUSD may experience heightened volatility due to diverging macroeconomic indicators. Positive PMI data from the US could strengthen the USD, signaling expansion in the manufacturing sector and boosting expectations for a resilient economy. Conversely, Australia's CPI data will likely influence the AUD if it signals higher-than-expected inflation, which could prompt hawkish sentiments from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Traders should also monitor commodity prices and construction activity reports, which significantly impact the Aussie’s movement.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
On the H4 chart, AUDUSD appears to be in a mild bullish trend, although recent bearish candles indicate some downside pressure. The price is currently interacting with the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting a potential reversal zone or consolidation phase. Notably, the price is oscillating between the 0.382 and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels, highlighting key support and resistance areas at approximately 0.6480 and 0.6525, respectively. The last two candles are bearish, which may signal a short-term pullback. The RSI is hovering near 50, indicating a neutral momentum, with no strong overbought or oversold conditions.
If the price breaks above the Ichimoku cloud and the 0.5 Fibonacci level, it could continue its bullish trajectory toward the 0.786 Fibonacci level around 0.6620. However, if the bearish momentum persists, a drop below the 0.382 level could open the door for further declines toward the 0.236 Fibonacci level around 0.6430.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

Gold/EUR Price Action and Key Technical Indicators

The Gold/EUR pair represents the Euro's value in terms of gold, a critical safe-haven asset. This pair is influenced by Eurozone economic data, global risk sentiment, and gold's intrinsic role as a hedge against inflation and market uncertainty. Today’s focus is on significant Eurozone reports, including the French Government Budget Balance, which widened to -173.8B, and Spanish Unemployment Change, which rose to 29.3K, surpassing the previous figure of 26.8K. These reports highlight fiscal challenges and rising unemployment in Europe, potentially weighing on the Euro.
Gold, on the other hand, remains a primary focus for investors amid global economic uncertainty, offering protection against currency devaluation. The combination of weaker European data and gold's appeal as a risk-off asset will likely contribute to volatility in the Gold EUR pair, especially as it approaches critical support and resistance levels.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Gold/EUR price action reflects a consolidation phase, with key resistance at 2512.500–2530.00 acting as a ceiling for upward movement. This resistance zone has been tested multiple times, but the inability to breach it suggests strong selling pressure. Meanwhile, the green support zone at 2485.00–2500.00 has consistently absorbed downward moves, highlighting robust demand for gold at lower levels. The 100-period Moving Average (MA) reinforces the support zone, maintaining the medium-term bullish structure. However, the negative volume divergence raises concerns about the strength of the current trend. Without an increase in volume, a sustained breakout above resistance or a breakdown below support appears unlikely. Traders should monitor these zones closely for any decisive price action. If the price breaks above the resistance zone, a bullish continuation could target higher levels, driven by renewed buying interest. Conversely, a breach of the support zone could lead to a deeper retracement, particularly if the 100-period MA fails to hold. Today’s weak Eurozone data, including the widening French budget deficit and rising Spanish unemployment, may increase bearish pressure on the Euro, bolstering gold's safe-haven appeal.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

EUR/CAD Analysis: Industrial Output, Jobs Data, and Trade Balance

The EUR/CAD forex pair represents the exchange rate between the Euro and the Canadian Dollar, with the Euro being the official currency of the Eurozone and the Canadian Dollar (CAD) the official currency of Canada. Commonly referred to as the "Euro-Loonie," the EUR/CAD daily news outlook is highly influenced by economic indicators from both regions, including employment data, inflation figures, and trade balances. As of today, key EURCAD fundamental signals impacting the market include the Eurozone's industrial output and foreign trade data, while Canadian economic reports on job creation, the unemployment rate, and the PMI for manufacturing will provide additional insight into the outlook for the CAD.
Looking at today's economic calendar, the Eurozone's industrial output and foreign trade data are expected to be crucial. Stronger-than-expected industrial output could signal an uptick in economic activity, potentially supporting the Euro. Meanwhile, the Canadian employment data, including job creation and the unemployment rate, will be pivotal for determining the strength of the Canadian Dollar. If Canada reports solid job growth or a decline in unemployment, the CAD may strengthen as it signals a robust domestic economy. Additionally, the Manufacturing PMI from Canada will offer more insight into business sentiment, and any positive results would likely further support CAD strength and together with the USD singals, cause a shift in the pair’s forecast today.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The EUR/CAD H4 technical analysis today shows this pair’s price action influenced by key technical indicators, particularly the Stochastic Oscillator and the Ichimoku Cloud. The Stochastic Oscillator appears to be showing signs of overbought conditions, suggesting a potential reversal or consolidation in the near term. The Ichimoku Cloud is indicating a current EURCAD bullish trend, as the price is above the Cloud, with support at the Senkou Span B level. However, caution is advised as the Stochastic's overbought signal could lead to a pullback. A break below the Ichimoku Cloud could invalidate the Euro-Loonie bullish outlook, turning its bias neutral or even bearish. Traders will need to monitor the price action relative to these indicators for potential entry or exit points.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore