Daily News By Xtreamforex

Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by xtreamforex, Jan 3, 2019.

  1. xtreamforex

    xtreamforex Senior Investor

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    Overview of Gold – Bearish Sentiment Seen in This Week

    The XAU traded lower against the USD and closed at 1280.34.

    What do we have in the shiny material?
    1) Bearish ABCD Pattern.
    2) "C" @ 50% Retracement.
    3) "C" @ Monthly Pivot.
    4) "C" @ the Value Area Low of - 2 Week.
    5) "C" forms a Double Top in it - self, followed by 61.8% retracement.
    6) Forms a support trendline from D1 Pivot Candles.

    Scenarios:
    1. Bulls need to break above Month Pivot.
    2. Bears need to break below the D1 support trend line.
    According to the Analysis, The XAU/USD pair is expected to find support at 1277.77, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1275.20. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1284.25, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1288.16.

    XAU USD Previous Day range was 6.48 and Current Day Range is 31100.
     
  2. xtreamforex

    xtreamforex Senior Investor

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    Technical Overview of the Commodities Gold and Silver

    Overview of Gold

    1) It is expected, that the price for gold could continue to decline. A potential downside target is the support level at 1,273 & Stalls @ the monthly pivot.
    2) As it has formed a Large Bullish High volume Candle, It represents that the aggressive news buying is over and if the Highs r not broken then we may see it to decline again.
    3) It’s making a series of Lower Highs and Lower Lows, Representing a declining position.
    4) It’s in a formation of Gartley Pattern.
    5) The D1 Price and Change in Candle Chart below For May 2019. We can see whenever the price and change in candle are in close proximity with each other they repell, triggering a change in trend.

    Overview of Silver

    1) It is expected, that the price for silver could continue to decline.
    2) From the past 10 weeks, Silver is declining and making a series of Lower Lows and Higher Lows.
    3) Now the Metal made a High Volume Candle.
    4) At the Weekly Pivot.
    5) Below the Last week Pivot.
    6) At the previous and current Value Area High.
    7) Test of 20 EMA from Daily 1 Chart.
    8) A break below close below candle may trigger a selling bias again.
    9) With Strong support @ SUP1 Week 1 = 14.38.
    10) With Strong Support @ SUP2 Month 1 =14.36.
     
  3. xtreamforex

    xtreamforex Senior Investor

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    Technical Overview of AUD/CAD and AUD/CHF Currency Pair

    AUD CAD

    The AUD traded higher against the CAD and closed at 0.9174.
    1-After making a down move of 406 pips, the pair begin ascending.
    2 - It’s above the 60/80 ema.
    3 - Its above the weekly and monthly Pivot.
    4 - It formed a Double Top Pattern, A breakout above the 127 Extension may lead the pair to covet the space made by 406 Pip down Move.
    5 - If we have a look at the Futures data then we may see that the slope of AUD is towards UP side and CAD is towards Down.

    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.93363, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.92984. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.94012, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.94282.

    AUD CAD Previous Day range was 64.9 and Current Day Range is 30.3.

    AUD CHF

    The AUD traded lower against the CHF and closed at 0.6941.

    1 - The Pair formed a double top.
    2 - It could not breach the Up extension off 127 hence it confirms a double top.
    3 - The 60/80 ema is facing towards down.
    4 - Fundamentally as we know market is in Risk Off Scenario so we can gain help from the strength of Safe Heaven CHF to support this trade.
    5 - A space with many Open orders left to cover while going towards the down side remaining.
    6 - Pair is below the Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly and weekly forming a Proper Sync formation of trend.

    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.69279, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.69151. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.69624, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.69841.

    AUD CHF Previous Day range was 34.5 and Current Day Range is 37.1.

    Weekly Briefing

    On Sunday, the Chinese government published a paper in which it was announced that China will not back off in the US-China trade war despite recent tariffs.
    The Chinese securities and markets regulators announced that the impact of trade wars on financial markets can be controlled.
    This may Strengthen The CNY because a few days earlier the officials said that those who short the CNY will face many Losses.

    The Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority stated on Sunday steady slowdown of world economy growth could negatively affect oil market and, as a result, the country's economy temps of growth. It signals that when there will be instability then Who WILL BUY OIL? The Supply may exceed Demand.

    The J.P. Morgan analytics department stated on Saturday that escalating trade tensions with China and other countries could force the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates two more times in 2019- High interest Rate = Strength of the Economy

    A fundamental surge has occurred. Due to another Trump tariff announcement the USD dropped like a brick. As a result of that commodity prices have jumped. Gold touched the 1,300.00 level on Friday.

    For Detailed Technical Analysis Visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
     
  4. xtreamforex

    xtreamforex Senior Investor

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    Technical Overview of USD/JPY and NZD/CAD Currency Pair

    USD JPY

    The USD traded higher against the JPY and closed at 108.055.

    • The pair formed an AB= CD pattern.
    • It’s below Yearly, Quarterly and Monthly pivot.
    • NO Price Action Signal.
    • It broke the Pivot support trend line.
    • But
    • Fundamentally as we know that Safe Heaven is in demand and USD has announced a rate cut so we can assume to sell on the rallies.
    • As we can see the VPOC level 108.22 is a good Value area to go short.
    • This may be a purely fundamental trade if shorts take over the market.

    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 107.809, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.564. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 108.372, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 108.690.

    USD JPY Previous Day range was 5630 and Current Day Range is 3320.

    NZD CAD

    The NZD traded lower against the CAD and closed at 0.8864.

    • The main trend heads towards North.
    • Pivot support trendline formed.
    • Price successfully trading above the current and previous weekly pivot level.
    • Price breached towards north the - 3 week Pivots.
    • A Buy on the dips will be preferable.
    • For now
    • NZD is the strongest and USD and CAD are Weakest.

    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.88309, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.87977. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.88876, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.89111.

    NZD CAD Previous Day range was 56.7 and Current Day Range is 30.6.

    Morning Briefing

    • The U.S. dollar fell on Monday after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said an interest rate cut "may be warranted soon," given the rising economic risk posed by global trade tensions as well as weak U.S. inflation.
    • Hedge funds stepped up their negative bets on sterling.
    • While sterling edged further off five-month lows on Monday, rising 0.15% to $1.2645, short positions are slowly building up in the background, reflecting growing uncertainty among investors on the outlook for the British economy.
    • Short positions are at their highest level since March 17.
    • The RBA is expected to cut the cash rate on Tuesday to a new record low of 1.25%. We expect a follow-up cut in August, with the risk of additional stimulus by early 2020.
    • ING discusses EUR/USD: We are still expecting a downside breakout below the crucial horizontal support around 1.1115 in the coming weeks. This will trigger a serious Sell signal
    • EUR/USD Bulls May Retreat If ECB Tilts Dovish On Thursday.
    • Squawk: Prefer to sell USD/JPY on rallies, while maintains a long NZD/CAD as its trade of this week targeting a move towards 0.8950.

    Overview of Gold

    • From a theoretical point of view, it is expected, that a reversal south could occur in the nearest future.
    • In this case, the rate has to surpass the 1,309.31 level.
    • If the given support level holds, it is likely, that gold could trade sideways between it and the upper channel line.
    • It is unlikely, that the price for gold could jump higher than 1,333.68 due to the resistance of the Q1 R1.
    • Gold is above the yearly and Quarterly Pivots.
    • Better to wait for the Metal to form a Double Top and Fill the space it made.
    • Technically if we look at the Futures Data then we see that the data is making a formation of Double Top. If we break the neck line then we may have a down movement.
    • On the other hand we can see downwards slope in the USD Futures a crossover may strengthen USD.

    For Detailed Technical Analysis Visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
     
  5. xtreamforex

    xtreamforex Senior Investor

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    Technical Overview of NZD/CAD Currency Pair

    NZD CAD

    The NZD traded higher against the CAD and closed at 0.8849.
    • Very Interesting pair for now.
    • Main trend aka 60/80 Ema is towards south.
    • The pair made a Pivot low candle support trend line.
    • It formed a Mb/Ib.
    • It’s above weekly Pivot and has formed a CUP Pattern.
    • A break above/below 127 extension may form a breakout.
    • Remember yesterday it was announced to stay long on NZDCAD.
    • Keep in mind that NZD is the most Interest paying nation for now.
    • The rate of change in Currency strength meter shows that NZD is the most strongest for now.
    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.88361, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.88235. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.88672, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.88857.

    NZD CAD Previous Day range was 31.1 and Current Day Range is 37.8.

    Morning Briefing
    • USD: The U.S. dollar was modestly lower on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell alluded to the possibility of an interest rate cut in the face of economic risks, including the global trade war.
    • EURGBP: Weakening of domestic data in UK combined with euro spread compression, the EUR/GBP could move towards 0.90.
    • Believe tactical EUR/SEK short positions remain attract.. Also maintain our CAD/NOK short and EUR/GBP long exposure.
    • Short USD/JPY than long EUR/USD. Short EUR/JPY still works.
    • There’s a bit more AUD short-covering to come.
    • AUD/USD Traders A Green Light To Sell.
    News of the Day!

    AUD GDP to be announced today.
    As we can see in the history we have a decline situation. Due to Weaker retail sales, weaker employment and ewages data, so it’s expected to have a weaker GDP for now.
    To have a better GDP, The AUD must have readings above 0.40%.
     
  6. xtreamforex

    xtreamforex Senior Investor

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    Technical Overview of EUR/GBP Currency Pair

    EUR GBP

    The EUR traded higher against the GBP and closed at 0.8841.

    Overall the market may be in a range because of NFP scheduled for Friday.
    The pair stalls at the weekly Pivot.
    It has a major resistance at 0.9000 Level (Distribution level).
    We can expect a selling pressure if the pair breaks the VPOC of current month (in confluence with the - 3 week Value area high).
    We may target the ADR 5 day low as Take Profit zone.
    No more big movements expected because of the NFP news scheduled for Friday

    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.88292, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.88169. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.88657, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.88899.

    EUR GBP Previous Day range was 36.5 and Current Day Range is 12.6.

    Morning Briefing

    ADP National Employment Report states that U.S. private employers added 27K jobs in May, This reading is well below the forecast, This gain is the most Smallest gain in the Past 9 years
    Federal Reserve Chairman stated that FED considers to cut rates and soon.
    Key Points in the above statements are:
    1-ADP report says that the added jobs are less than expected and is the lowest increase in 9 years(This can be a negative news for USD).
    2- FED considers to cut rates soon is a clear signal for weakness in the $$$.
    So fundamentally staying Short on the $ may be more attractive than Long.

    ECB will confirm economic risks remains to the downside and anticipate that ECB President Draghi will present a dovish tone to the monetary policy outlook; it means that we may have a Weaker EUR and its most strong competitor is JPY, so technically staying short on EUR pairs specially selling rallies EURJPY may be more handy.

    YEN after strongly appreciating, there is a reduced risks of a reversal. Even if risk appetite gains interest and equity markets continue to north (STAY LONG ON JPY).
     
  7. xtreamforex

    xtreamforex Senior Investor

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    Technical Overview of AUD/CAD and EUR/GBP Currency Pair

    AUD CAD

    The AUD traded higher against the CAD and closed at 0.9291.

    As mentioned earlier that AUDCAD has been in a Double Top Formation.
    Now we see that we have

    1- Broke the neckline.
    2 - Broke the previous Value Area Low and VPOC levels.
    3 - Broke the Trendline.
    4 - Broke below the Main trend.
    5 - Its below the weekly monthly yearly and quarterly pivots.
    6 - Formed a Morobozu candle on D1.
    7 - Fundamentally AUD is weak due to rate cuts and CAD is strong due to 25k jobs added in CANADA.
    8 - Broke the - 3 week VPOC resistance.
    9 - Selling at the rally may be a good opportunity.

    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.92765, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.92620. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.93154, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.93398.

    AUD CAD Previous Day range was 38.9 and Current Day Range is 37.6.

    EUR GBP

    The EUR traded lower against the GBP and closed at 0.8895.

    1 - A bearish bias on GBP and AUD.
    2 - A double top formed on the yearly pivot.
    3 - The neckline is also the previous resistance.
    4 - A break below the MSup1 will lead the pair to the latest resistance, triggering a buy limit situation.
    5 - The pair forms a Pivot Support trend line and is supported by fundamentals.
    6 - This is the first day after NFP so we will come to know the market wise by end of UK session.

    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.88625, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.88298. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.89143, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.89334.

    EUR GBP Previous Day range was 51.8 and Current Day Range is 24.9.
     
  8. xtreamforex

    xtreamforex Senior Investor

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    Technical Overview of USD/CHF and EUR/USD Currency Pair

    USD CHF

    The USD traded higher against the CHF and closed at 0.9897.

    1 - Fundamentally the pair to follow Risk Aversion.
    2 - It stalls in between the previous week value area HIGH & LOW.
    3 - The VPOC level is in confluence with Quarterly Pivot.
    4 - The Pair formed a Motherbar Insidebar @ Previous Week Mother Bar Inside Bar Value Area High and Low.
    5 - The pair has been in a series of LH and LL.
    6 - Fundamentally USD has to be weak because of 2 rate cuts expected this year.
    7 - Its advised to trade the Value area High and Low as support/resistance until a market profile P/D/B shape is formed.

    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.98808, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.98647. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.99164, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.99359.

    USD CHF Previous Day range was 35.6 and Current Day Range is 13.5.

    EUR USD

    The EUR traded higher against the USD and closed at 1.1311.

    1 - Fundamentally the pair to follow Risk Aversion.
    2 - The Pair formed a Motherbar Insidebar @ Previous Week Mother bar Inside Bar.
    3 - It’s in tight range of previous week Value area High and Quarter Pivot.
    4 - The pair has been in a series of HH and HL.
    5 - As we can see that the pair has shifted its direction to Higher Highs in the weekly Pivots.
    6 - Fundamentally USD has to be weak because of 2 rate cuts expected this year.

    According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 1.12906, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.12699. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.13314, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.13515.

    EUR USD Previous Day range was 40.8 and Current Day Range is 15.

    Morning Briefing

    1 - The dollar gained on Monday after the United States and Mexico reached a deal to avoid tariffs.
    2 - Euro faltered after sources said European Central Bank policymakers were open to cutting interest rates should economic growth slow.
    3 - RBA to cut rates in August meeting.
    4 - BoC on hold for now with the next move in rates likely up.
    5 - More EUR/USD Short Covering Likely Within 1.1280 - 1.1380 Ranges.
     
  9. xtreamforex

    xtreamforex Senior Investor

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    Technical Overview of USD Dollar Index

    USD Dollar Index

    Here we see a very interesting scenario that
    1 - USD Index is in a range, the range continues buy Pound Swissie and Euro.
    All the above mentioned pairs share the same formations.
    2 - A Motherbar/Insidebar found @ D1 time frame.
    3 - Stalls @ the Year Resistance 1.
    4 - Already achieved the 200% Extensions.
    5 - Stalls @ Pivot Quarter 1 as a Support
    6 - The Motherbar/Insidebar @ the Pivot support and resistances
    7 - The most important reason for this range is the mixed data from USD. Like rate cuts and positive economic data.
    8 - The CPI data is expected today.
    Keep in mind that it’s correlated with PPI data.

    Detailed Historical data Analysis shows that the Moving average of Period 2 has a downwards slope in CPI and PPI.

    According to the Analysis, The Dollar Index is expected to find support at 96.433, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 96.333. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 96.683, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 96.833.

    For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
     
  10. xtreamforex

    xtreamforex Senior Investor

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    Technical Overview of USD/CNH Currency Pair

    USD CNH

    USD traded higher against CNH and closed at 6.9286
    G-20 Meeting Ahead on 28th June for US China Issues!

    4 Possible outcomes at the coming G20 meeting:
    (1) President Xi does not show at the G20 and the US imposes more tariffs - USDCNH likely breaks 7.00 fairly quickly.
    (2) Xi and Trump meet but talks do not go well and US threatens further tariffs - USDCNH likely breaks 7.00 but more gradually.
    (3) Status quo scenario: Xi and Trump meet, agree to disagree, tariffs go up as planned but USDCNH likely tests 7.00 later in July.
    (4) Max bull scenario: Xi and Trump meet, agree to re-start negotiations in coming weeks, risk bounces, USDCNH to 6.80-85.

    According to the Analysis, The USD/CNH is expected to find support at 6.92356, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 6.91848. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 6.93474, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 6.94084.

    For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
     

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