Anatole Kaletsky is an award-winning journalist and financial economist who has written since 1976 for The Economist, the Financial Times and The Times of London before joining Reuters. He wrote a blog post in which he made 4 predictions with regard to the markets in 2014. Anatole predicted that the US growth rate will climb above 4%, that the financial trends of 2013 will continue in 2014, the European crisis will have an impact on the politics (and thereby economy), Japan will underperform again and emerging markets will make a come-back. Do you agree with these predictions?
I'm not sure I would agree with the rate climbing above the 4% rate, but the rest seem fairly obvious. Especially the one about the European crisis. It's not even really a prediction. It's like saying that the sun will come up tomorrow.
Not sure about most of those... I guess only time will tell. Also I always wonder why people think it's great if this guy has been in the financial business for decades... if I'd be good and capable of predicting the future then I guess that in 10 to 20 years I'd be retired enjoying a cold beer on a warm beach with a couple of bikini models.. not writing articles for a newspaper.
Those who are REALLY great, rich, and smart - like Buffett, Yacktman, Icahn, and Schwarzman - will tell you point blank they don't know what will happen tomorrow, next month, or in the next year, and that you can't be 100% sure of anything, can't really time the market with anything near 100% success, etc.
But you can't predict it with a 100% certainty. And yes that would be a good deal to bet your money on, since in the odd case that it doesn't come up I don't think you'd worry about the lost money.
I dunno, I'm pretty damn sure I could predict it with 100% certainty, given all the information out there, and no knowledge that says it won't rise tomorrow.
So you are saying that there is an absolute 0% chance of some major catastrophe happening? I do agree that it's very very unlikely that anything like that will happen, but there is still the possibility of it. (though it's probably measured in billionths of a percentage)
Well, eventually the sun will use up all the hydrogen and it will reach the end of its life. Thankfully that is an estimated 7 billion years from now, so the aforementioned prediction will probably hold true for a while.
