Establishment conservatives making plans to deal with a Trump nomination

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presi...nation/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social

Very interesting article. Starts out with a tweet that Bill Kristol sent out recently asking for ideas for the name of a new party they would have to form if Trump wins the nomination. Then with comments from people like Haley Barbour, Joe Scarborough, Christie Todd Whitman and including Jed Bush. Basically all saying the same thing. For the Republican party, it would be better if Trump loses to Hillary. There are also ´sources´ that report that many Republican donors are also planning sitting this election out if Trump is the nominee.

It is something that I have been saying. If the full Republican apparatus gets behind guys like Trump and Cruz, the American people are going to shun the entire party for decades and you are going to have presidential elections where the winner will be crowned well before election night because the electoral map will be impossible for Republicans. The real presidential election will be the democrat primary. Republican leaders are starting to say it now themselves, the only way the Republican party survives a Trump/Cruz nomination is if the party abandons their own candidate rather than being attached to him. When people like Bill Kristol are talking about a 3rd party candidate going against Trump, you know this is serious.

 

My opinion hasn't changed. It's much to early to pay attention to the noise.

 

I agree with @baudwalk that it's too early to think about the elections that is still a year away. But on the other hand, my take on it, if the elections is held today, I think Trump will romp off with the trophy since no one in the surveys come close to him. So if in the next 5 months nothing dramatic happens to the Democrat's candidate then it will be a Republican regime once more.

 

In my opinion, the Republican party may never win an election again due to its fragmentation. If Trump doesn't win the nomination, a lot of people just won't vote. I hear a lot more people who want to vote for Trump than any other Republican nominee.

 

Every few decades a party realigns and right now the Republicans are struggling with an image of what they stand for. This happens and people do switch parties, but if the party is divided, then the voters will have little confidence.

http://inhomelandsecurity.com/comme...cal-party-realignment-and-the-end-of-the-gop/

To win, they have to be tactical, and if the Republican Senators and Congresspeople don't agree with with nominated candidate then they won't vote for them. Their jobs are still safe regardless.

 

If there was a split, would this be the first time in history that American politics has witnessed a viable 3rd party?

 

They won´t actually split. I think what you will see is for one election, they will just sit it out. It is basically what happened with Goldwater. The establishment guys will try to demoralize and de-legitimize the racists and anti-immigration people and move the party away from that issue. The party guys know that they cannot lose latinos 90+% like they lost african-americans.

To the above poster, you are right, Trump guarantees a very strong 20ish% and probably a small portion of them won´t vote if he is not the nominee. But that is misleading.. because Trump also guarantees a much larger percentage of people will vote for whomever runs against him. For every person that comes out just to vote for Trump, there are 5 people who will vote because they are scared to death he will win. Having a devote small minority is worthless when you lose the election by a landslide. Hillary is a horrible candidate and has a similar problem. She will bring out some people who will vote only because they want to vote against her, and with most opposition, that would kill her.. but against Trump, it won´t matter.

Just a quick stat about Latinos and the effect they have.

McCain - he had a horrible time in 2008. He was a war advocate at a time when the country was very much against the war. The big issue was the economy and the collapse in 2007, and he had no plan, nor expertise on the economy. He was also running against Obama-new who was like a rockstar at the time.

Romney - he didn´t have the baggage of the Iraq war. He was also running against Obama-old who had 4 years of reality. Obama was no longer a rockstar and his flaws and shortcomings were known.

McCain earned more votes than Romney.

 

Any large immigrant group should be the last group of people you should dismiss. There are more Hispanics than African Americans. And since there are a good number of illegals, their children will become of voting age soon. Immigrants also tend to have more children

Republicans are even losing younger voters in the last 8 years. I've seen a lot of people in their low 20s go from hard core Republic to Democrat.

 

I don't believe that the federal union of American states can last much longer.

Why? Because the liberals won the culture wars, and that's left a lot of the country out in the cold. But those people all tend to be centered in certain states, and the more extreme that progressive liberalism becomes (and gay marriage, for instance, is an extreme-leftist policy, practically unimaginable <10 years ago except by a small band of determined revolutionaries), the more appealing secession will become.

Plus, aren't Republicans meant to be conservatives? What un-conservative aspect of Trump do they hate so much?

 

Maybe there will be a tea party candidate. I mean they have elected a number of represenatives. It is possible. I don't see why the tea party couldn't run someone. However, most Tea Party members are out of step with the main stream American public. Remember that in 1968 George Wallace made a very strong run as a 3rd party candidate. That could happen again.