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Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by Andrea ForexMart, Jan 18, 2018.

  1. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    16.03. China showed worst economic performance in 30 years

    Since the beginning of 2020, the Chinese economy has experienced the most severe recession in the last 30 years, caused by the rapidly spreading coronavirus and aggressive measures to contain it. Industrial production, retail sales and investments in the country's economy have fallen enormously.

    Industrial output in January-February fell even more than analysts had expected – by 13.5% compared to the same period last year. Such indicators were the weakest since January 1990.

    Investments in fixed assets fell by 24.5% compared with last year's statistics. Investments in the private sector decreased by 26.4%. Retail sales sales declined 20.5% per year.

    China's unemployment rate is also updating multi-year highs. The indicator rose to 6.2%, becoming the highest since the publication of official reports in 1990.

    Chinese analysts note that the shock to the Chinese economy from the coronavirus epidemic was even stronger than the global financial crisis. Experts are sure that the policy of the central government should be aimed at preventing large-scale bankruptcies and unemployment.
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  2. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    17.03. Philippines is the first in the world to close the stock market due to coronavirus

    Today, the Philippine Stock Exchange closed indefinitely, and trading in foreign currency and bonds was suspended. This was the world's first market closure in response to the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.

    The Philippine Stock Exchange said the exchange work will be suspended until further notice in order to ensure the safety of employees and traders. And foreign exchange trading will resume from March 18.

    Analysts suggest that other countries may follow the Philippines, given the rapid speed of falling stock prices. If the situation does not change in the near future, stock exchanges around the world may begin to suspend their activities.

    Recall that concerns about the coronavirus epidemic led to a collapse in world markets and investors had to sell even protective assets, such as gold, to cover losses
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  3. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    18.03. World oil storage facilities may overflow in coming months

    Energy experts fear that global oil storages may overflow during several months due to falling demand for oil because of coronavirus. Forecasts suggest a sharp drop in oil demand, as industrialized countries are isolated, and large cities are taking decisive measures in an attempt to slow the spread of the virus.

    Traders such as Gunvor predict that oil demand may fall by at least 5 million bpd (5% of global demand) in April when the OPEC + agreement ends.

    At the same time, the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia will only increase the excess supply of oil on the market. It is expected that oil supplies from Saudi Arabia will grow by about a quarter, while Russia and the UAE are increasing production volumes amid a struggle for market share. In total, this may lead to a supply surplus of at least 8 million bpd.

    Consulting Eurasia Group estimated that global oil demand could fall by a quarter or 25 million bpd in spring. According to analysts, the occupancy rate of onshore oil storage facilities is now 61%, and in six months they can exhaust their capacity. In this case, traders will be forced to switch to a more expensive option for storing oil – on tankers at sea.
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  4. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    19.03. German business climate drops to 2009 low

    The mood in the German business community deteriorated significantly in March amid concerns about the coronavirus. Ifo's preliminary business climate index in Germany fell to 87.7 points from 96 points in February. Such indicator showed a decline to its lowest level since August 2009.

    The index of current assessment of the economy of Germany fell to 93.8 points from 99 points, and the index of measuring expectations for the next six months fell to 82 points in March from 93.2 points a month earlier. Such figures suggest that the German economy is accelerating towards recession.
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  5. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    20.03. US prepares for 18-month pandemic

    The coronavirus pandemic remains the main news of the day. The disease continues to spread, adversely affecting businesses and households around the world. Over the past two weeks, about 15,000 cases of Covid-19 have been reported in the United States. Experts suggest that pandemia may drag on for a year and a half.

    The House of Representatives has already received approval for a $500 billion stimulus package to tackle the pandemic. In addition, Republicans today put forward another $1 trillion aid plan in the Senate.

    Under the new bill, the government will pay monthly support to all Americans during the crisis. Many low-income families in the United States have been particularly affected by the outbreak of coronavirus because they cannot go to work and therefore cannot afford to pay bills or buy medicine.
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  6. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    30.03. Refineries around the world begin to suspend due to reduced demand

    Oil refineries around the world have begun to suspend production or reduce refining volumes, as fuel demand has come under serious pressure from the coronavirus pandemic.

    According to Reuters, global demand for fuel will decrease by 15-20% in the next quarter, mainly due to the cessation of most air travel around the world.

    On Friday, it became known about the shutdown of refineries in India and Italy. Factories in other countries are taking the necessary measures to reduce refining volumes, including in the USA, Great Britain and Germany.

    A decrease in the demand for petroleum products is parallel to a drop in demand for raw materials themselves. According to the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), global demand for oil due to coronavirus could fall by 20 million barrels per day, and oil storage could soon be full.
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  7. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    31.03. Oil will remain below $40 due to coronavirus shock and OPEC + collapse

    The price of oil in 2020 will be kept below the level of $40 per barrel. This conclusion was reached by Reuters experts, having analyzed the prospects of the current situation in the world. Currently, measures to curb the global spread of coronavirus adversely affect oil demand, and the collapse of the OPEC+ contributes to an increase in the surplus of raw materials.

    Analysts expect the average Brent price to be $38.76 per barrel this year. Today, Brent and WTI are trading just above $20 a barrel. Moreover, back in January, the cost of «black gold» exceeded the current price by 70%.

    Pressure on the oil market is exerted by restrictions related to coronavirus and weakening demand, as well as the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, which caused the flood of the market with raw materials.

    Experts predict that global oil demand may decline by 0.7-5.0 million barrels per day in 2020, which will be the maximum reduction since the financial crisis in 2009.
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  8. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    01.04. Germany and Canada will be hit hardest by world coronavirus outbreak

    Analysts believe that the economies of Germany and Canada are the most susceptible to the shocks associated with coronavirus due to their dependence on trade. The rapid proliferation of COVID-19 in the United States and the associated economic consequences can pose significant challenges for Canada. According to the Geneva International Trade Center (ITC), in 2019 Canada imported $453 billion worth of goods from the United States, including cars, equipment, and oil.

    And Germany is particularly vulnerable to production shocks because of its dependence on foreign demand for German equipment, cars and pharmaceuticals. According to ITC, in 2019 Germany exported $1.49 trillion worth of goods.

    Experts note that open economies will suffer a longer period of time from the effects of coronavirus on supply and demand. Even after the virus spread is controlled domestically, countries with open economies will continue to suffer from the effects of the virus due to falling demand in countries that are still struggling with the crisis.
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  9. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    06.04. Sentix: eurozone investor sentiment drops to record low

    According to Sentix analytics, investor sentiment in the eurozone fell to a record low in April, as the bloc’s economy declines in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

    The Sentix index, which measures investor confidence in the eurozone, fell to -42.9 points in April from -17.1 points in March. Analysts predicted a decline in the indicator to -30.3 points.

    Sentix Managing Director Patrick Hussey noted that the current situation is much worse than the 2009 crisis, and economic forecasts underestimate the volume of economic contraction.

    In Germany, the investor sentiment index fell to -36 points from -16.9 in March, reaching the lowest level since March 2009.
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  10. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    07.04. Industrial production in Germany unexpectedly increased in February

    Industrial production in Germany in February unexpectedly showed an increase. At the same time, the Ministry of Economy of Germany noted that the decline in production will still be recorded in March and April – due to the measures introduced by the authorities to combat coronavirus, which undermined business activity in the country.

    According to recent data, industrial production in February increased by 0.3% compared with January. Analysts polled by Reuters on average predicted a decline of 0.9%. Consumer goods output in Germany increased by 1.8%. At the same time, the output of capital goods fell by 0.3%.

    Experts note that Europe's largest economy has been hit hard by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic and is expected to fall into recession in 2020.
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