March 02. China's financial regulator announced a «bubble» in global stock markets The China Banking and Insurance Supervision and Control Committee (CBIRC) said the rally in the US and other stock markets resembles a «bubble» and will eventually move to a correction. The head of the committee, Guo Shuqing, also noted that the American and European markets are moving in the opposite direction compared to the economy. CBIRC comments did not support sentiment on the Hong Kong stock exchange, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 1.2% on Tuesday. Moreover, experts believe that such statements may create even greater concern about the further tightening of China's monetary policy. The regulator also announced a «bubble» in the real estate market in China itself. This is because many people buy houses for investment or speculative purposes, which is «very dangerous.» The economic recovery, a surge in lending and fears of missing out on buying a home have boosted demand for real estate in major Chinese cities. As a result, the authorities have retaliated, including a new mortgage lending facility. Despite this, housing prices in the secondary market, which is less regulated by the state, jumped in January to a maximum in a year and a half.
March 3. Gold falls in price on lower demand for «safe-haven» assets On Wednesday, the price of gold declines against the background of investors leaving defensive assets in the light of the prospects for an improvement in the economic situation in the world. In addition, the high yield on US government bonds and the expensive dollar continue to put pressure on gold quotes. The current price of the April futures for precious metals on the New York Comex exchange is $1,710.40 per troy ounce. Analysts note that investors are more inclined to acquire risky assets amid general optimism in the markets regarding the prospects for the development of the global economy. In addition, the continuation of mass vaccinations in countries around the world gives hope for a speedy recovery. Also, traders are waiting for additional support for the economy from the US authorities. As you remember, last Saturday the House of Representatives of the US Congress approved a stimulus package in the amount of 1.9 trillion dollars. Now the relevant bill has yet to be passed by the Senate and signed by President Joe Biden.
04.03. Construction of Nord Stream 2 postponed until September The construction of the Russian gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 was again postponed, this time for six months. Now, work on laying two lines of the gas pipeline in the exclusive economic zone of Denmark is going to be completed in September 2021, although the deadline was previously planned for the end of April. Initially, the project was supposed to be completed at the end of 2019, however, the construction of the pipeline was prevented by sanctions from the United States, due to which European companies began to leave the project. Washington is hindering the construction of the facility, as American liquefied natural gas competes with Russian pipeline fuel for the European market. As of early March, the pipeline is 98% ready, and its cost is estimated at $11 billion. Russia does not abandon plans to complete the construction of the facility, however, certification and insurance of the route still remain unresolved problems. Also today it became known that the financial partner of the project, the German concern Uniper, announced that it would no longer finance the project. It is known that as of November, Uniper has allocated 700 million euros to finance the construction of the gas pipeline. Earlier, the completion of financing was also announced by the German oil and gas company Wintershall Dea.
March 5. OPEC+ ministerial meeting outcomes On Friday, Brent crude rose to $68.60 for the first time since January 2020. The prices were supported by the results of the meeting of the ministers of the OPEC+ countries, according to which the organization unexpectedly refused to increase oil production in April by 500 thousand barrels per day. Moreover, Saudi Arabia extended its own voluntary restrictions of 1 million bpd for another month, promising to return these volumes to the market when it sees fit. Russia and Kazakhstan again received the right to increase production from April by 130 thousand and 20 thousand barrels per day, respectively. The results of the OPEC+ meeting indicate that the participants in the energy pact have chosen a cautious approach to assessing the recovery in demand, given the still remaining concerns about the pace of global economic growth.
March 8. US stock markets open in the red Investors are encouraged today that the Senate passed President Joe Biden's $ 1.9 trillion stimulus bill this weekend. Minor amendments were made to the bill, reducing unemployment benefits from $ 400 to $ 300. He must now return to the House of Representatives, which will approve the revised version and finally unlock the funds. The approval of the bill to stimulate the economy further contributed to the growth of US Treasury bonds, which, in turn, negatively affects the stock indices. The Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow Jones all started trading in the red today due to low investor interest in the stock at the moment. Stocks in China are also declining in light of last week's announcement of a lower-than-expected growth outlook. This signals to the markets that the government may withdraw some stimulus from its economy to offset the growth in borrowing. Oil prices continued to rise after OPEC + agreed not to increase its quotas in April last week. In addition, there has been an attack on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities, although the country has reported that production is unlikely to be affected. Nevertheless, oil managed to rise above $ 70 a barrel.
March, 09. Bitcoin capitalization exceeded $1 trillion again In the morning trading session on Tuesday, bitcoin rose to $54348.57, reaching a 24-hour high. At the same time, the market capitalization of the cryptocurrency rose again above the $ trillion level. After that, bitcoin lost some of its achievements and the current quotation of the digital asset is $54185. Note that recently, bitcoin has experienced a dizzying rally: since the beginning of 2021, it has grown by more than 80%, and over the past 12 months, it has risen by more than 570%. It was also at an all-time high of $58,332.36. There are several reasons behind Bitcoin's rise, including the investment in this digital currency by large investors and significant purchases by corporations such as Tesla, Square, and MicroStrategy Incorporated.
March 11. ECB kept monetary policy unchanged A meeting of the Board of Governors of the European Central Bank (ECB) took place today, following which monetary policy remained unchanged. The base interest rate on loans was kept at zero. The rate on deposits also remained at the same level – minus 0.5%, the rate on short-term loans from the ECB – at 0.25%. The regulator expects key interest rates to remain at or below current levels until the inflation forecast steadily approaches below 2%. In addition, the central bank will continue the bond buyback program (PEPP) in connection with the pandemic totaling € 1.85 trillion. The reinvestment of the main payments on the securities purchased under the PEPP is planned to continue until at least the end of 2023. The regulator will also continue the program of asset repurchase (APP) in the amount of € 20 billion monthly, as well as reinvestment of payments on securities purchased under this program. The next meeting of the European Central Bank will be held on April 22.
March 12. Biden signs incentive package act US President Joe Biden signed into law a $1.9 trillion stimulus package a day earlier than expected. The economic stimulus provides direct one-time payments of $1,400 for most Americans, as well as tax breaks for millions of families. The Democratic Party is now planning a two-week campaign to keep voters' memory of this decision until the next election. By signing the bill, Biden promised that the money would help rebuild America's economy and support workers and the middle class. Also, the new head of the White House said that he intends to speed up the process of national vaccination and return to normal life by the 4th of July holiday. Such statements have strengthened confidence in the recovery of the US economy this year, which has led to higher yields on the dollar and US bonds. In particular, the yield on benchmark 10-year bonds returned to 1.61%, the highest since February last year. The dollar index rose 0.6% to 91.93.
March 15. Oil hits $70 maximum on strong data from China Brent crude hit a high of $70 per barrel on Monday, boosted by data from China, which indicated a recovery in the economy, improving the outlook for demand from the world's largest oil importer. Activity in China's industrial and retail sectors surged in the first two months of 2021, exceeding analysts' expectations. Additional support for the quotes of «black gold» was provided by the OPEC report published last Thursday, according to which world oil demand in 2021 will reach 96.3 million barrels per day. Now experts of the oil cartel expect an increase in world oil demand by 5.9 million barrels per day. On the side of buyers, there is also general market optimism caused by new fiscal stimulus measures, worth $1.9 trillion, in the US, which were finally agreed at the end of last week. Market participants believe that the injection of such huge money into the economy will significantly accelerate the recovery of economic activity, which will have a favorable effect on the demand for energy resources. However, Brent failed to gain a foothold in the area of highs. The current quotation of the commodity asset is $ 68.75 per barrel.
March 16. British currency falls on fears over AstraZeneca vaccine The pound sterling declines against the euro and the dollar on Tuesday amid news of the suspension of coronavirus vaccinations developed by AstraZeneca in Germany, Italy and France. Previously, this vaccine has already been abandoned by Norway, the Netherlands, Denmark and a number of other countries. Germany, France and Italy announced on Monday that they will suspend the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine against COVID-19 after cases (including fatal) cases of thrombosis have been recorded in those vaccinated. At the same time, the World Health Organization (WHO) says that the connection between the vaccine and complications has not been proven and there is no reason for panic. Experts note that if fears about the safety of the AstraZeneca vaccine are confirmed, it could jeopardize the rapid vaccination program for the UK population.
