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Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by Andrea ForexMart, Jan 18, 2018.

  1. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Senior Investor

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    EU’s Malmström Against Trump’s Tariffs


    The European Union is trying to convince the countries Canada, Japan, and Mexico to work together against the aggressive trade policies imposed by US President Donald Trump, according to European Commissioner for Trade Cecilia Malmström today.


    Malmström further stated that EU is reaching out various countries to form alliances and arrange a trade union who believe in international laws. Last week, the EU announced levying retaliatory tariffs up to €2.8 billion-worth of U.S. exports, which includes peanut butter and motorboats. While Canada, India, Japan, and Mexico will do the same thing. The European Commissioner described Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum as “not legitimate” The Swedish Commissioner also cautioned regarding the potential risk towards the global economy.


    Both the United States and Europe set up the international policy and organizations to govern trade, but the US broke the rules that is why the EU has to take necessary action, Malmström said.



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  2. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Senior Investor

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    SNB Keeps an Ultra Loose Monetary Policies


    The Swiss National Bank announced the decision to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy on Thursday and analysts expectations matched from the survey by Reuters giving a unanimous answer.


    They reiterated the fragility or exchange rates after the strengthening of the Swiss franc in the past few weeks and began low this year.


    At the same time, Chairman Thomas Jordan said that it would be too early to raise rates in Switzerland amid low inflation.


    Another issue is the political uncertainty in Italy which will affect the eurozone in the future and it is important for the central bank to be heedful in this situation, according to an analyst.

    Forty experts expect the SNB to maintain the target range to be 1.25 percent to minus 0.25 percent in three months on the offered rate of London Interbank, which has been the ongoing target for the past three-and-a-half years.


    Also, they expect a negative interest rate of 0.75 percent deposits to be sustained where the commercial bank held a certain value as one of the important tools used by the bank.


    Changes in the LIBOR target range is anticipated to happen soonest at the end of the year based on the UBS, while the median consensus deems to set at the end of next year.


    Analyst of Credit Suisse initially thought the central bank to raise their rates as early as 2019 based on the economic strength of Switzerland, with a forecast growth of 2.2 percent this year.


    The Global Head of Investment Strategy & Research at Credit Suisse Group AG, Nannette Hechler-Fayd’herbe said, “Our base case scenario is where the ECB is considering a first interest rate increase themselves by mid-2019, and the SNB could move a quarter before.” Connoting the reaffirmation of central bank’s decision. However, she added that these two would move together as they are ‘economically interlinked’.


    Her expectation is a gradual increase of rates until it reached around 1.20 against the euro in a year.


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  3. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Senior Investor

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    France’s Economic Growth Sharp Decline in 2018


    The economy of France dropped from 2.3 percent to 1.7 percent this year, according to the forecast of National statistics, which is another financial problem of President Emmanuel Macron in reducing costs of the government.


    Macron’s administration aims to reduce spending and maintain the deficit targets of the European Union with 2.0 percent target growth for 2018.


    Growth has been steady and there are no particular concerns, remarked by Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire on Monday.


    However, statistics agency through that the government would fail to meet the target as it would be pulled lower by a strong euro and increasing oil prices as some of the influential factors.


    Gross Domestic Product increased by 0.3 percent in the second quarter, higher than the previous quarter’s rate of 0.2 percent. Further increased by 0.4 percent in both the remaining two factors in twelve months with 1.7 percent.


    The Central bank of France revised lower their target growth of 1.8 percent in a year, following a bright year in 2017. It has changed as if covered by clouds in France and the eurozone as described by the head of Insee's economic outlook division Frederic Tallet.


    This includes external factors over which the nation has less control such as global trade war, higher costs of oil prices, a strong euro, as well as, political uncertainties in Europe, notwithstanding the new far right-eurosceptic coalition in power in Italy.


    Moreover, domestic concerns including sluggish household consumption and nearly three months of unabating train strikes that will likely bring down the second-quarter growth by 0.1 percentage points.


    The forecast says that the corporate investment will slow down from 4.4 percent to 3.1 percent over the year, while household investment would decline from 5.6 percent in 2017 to 1.6 percent.


    On a brighter side, good progress was seen on the trade and unemployment concerns. Unemployment will only decline slightly which is currently twice the value of Germany or Britain. The forecast rate is 8.8 percent at the end of the year from 9.0 9.0 percent at the end of last year.


    A slow start of exports in 2018 is expected to change in the second quarter with the help of large demand in the aviation and shipbuilding sectors, according to the agency. On the other hand, households will gain from the reduction in both of the residency and payroll taxes.


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  4. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    08.11. Gold shows worst indicators in two years

    Gold prices continue to show the worst performance over the past two years, responding to positive news on the settlement of trade differences between the US and China. Today, gold futures for December delivery fell to $1,457.10 per troy ounce, plummeting from the $1,493 area. Such lows were the biggest loss since 2017.

    The pressure on the precious metal was exerted by news about the mutual abolition of US and Chinese duties. The elimination of duties is one of the main conditions for concluding the first stage of a trade deal. Success in negotiations supports the full range of risky assets, and gold, as a rule, moves in the opposite direction from risk.

    Additional pressure on gold was exerted by the news that the People's Bank of China, being a constant accumulator of gold bullion, was not able to replenish its reserves again in October.
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  5. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    11.11. Oman believes non-OPEC will extend the deal to reduce oil production

    Oman’s energy minister Mohammed bin Hamad al-Rumhy said today, that OPEC and non-OPEC producers will probably extend a deal to limit crude supply, but the oil production will be kept at the current level (1.2 million barrels per day).

    The minister also noted, that oil demand was improving lately as trade tensions soften and that Oman was satisfied with current oil prices.

    The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and other allies have agreed since January to reduce oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day to maintain the market. Nowadays the experts see signs of improvement in the situation with balance of demand and supply in the oil market, fear of recession is getting lower, and optimistic signals about a trade agreement between the US and China make unnecessary the further reducing measures.
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  6. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    12.11. The world’s largest trade deal could be signed in 2020

    After more than 6 years of negotiations, a group of 15 Asia-Pacific countries is going to sign the the world’s largest trade agreement in 2020. The deal is called Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and it will involve all 10 countries from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc and five of its major trading partners: Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea. The United States are not to be the joiner to the RCEP.

    Initially India planned to join the mega-deal, but later decided to abstain from participation in trade pact over concerns that it would hurt domestic producers.

    In any case, the 15 member-countries make up close to one-third of the world population and global gross domestic product.

    So, the uniting within the RCEP would boost trade throughout the group by reducing tariffs, standardizing customs rules and procedures and expanding market access, especially among countries that have not concluded trade agreements.
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  7. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    13.11. The results of D. Trump’s speech at the Economic Club of New York

    Yesterday in a speech to the Economic Club of New York US President Donald Trump announced the «imminent» prospects of completing the first phase of the trade deal with China, but did not provide any new details about the talks.

    The president’s speech disappointed investors, as they awaited any important political statements to be made. But Trump didn’t announce the place and date of signing a trade deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping, as it was expected before. Instead of this American president threaten to «very substantially» raise tariffs on Chinese goods if China does not make a deal with the United States.

    Along with this Trump noted, that the US would only accept the deal if it served the interests of his country, American employees and companies.

    The biggest part of president’s speech was devoted to success of White House administration. Trump said his staff had worked hard to bolster the economy despite of «too many interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve».
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