Forexmart's Forex News

Bitcoin has stabilized after rising to $100,000

After the rapid growth that raised bitcoin to the $100,000 mark, the exchange rate of the digital asset decreased slightly and stabilized. On Sunday, it fell to $95,611, and on Monday it is trying to stay at $98,402. According to experts, bitcoin's growth was so rapid that investors began to fear a correction.

Some analysts note that bitcoin has almost reached the symbolic level of $100,000, which for supporters of cryptocurrencies is an important frontier that refutes skeptical opinions. However, in their opinion, a period of consolidation may come before a sustained breakthrough above this level.

The impact of Donald Trump's victory on the bitcoin exchange rate cannot be underestimated. Since his victory, there has been growth in the digital asset market, and the total value has increased by about $1 trillion. Trump promised more lenient regulation of cryptocurrencies and the creation of a national bitcoin reserve, which has a positive effect on investor sentiment.

Interest in bitcoin is growing not only among private investors, but also among large financial institutions. For example, Cantor Fitzgerald LP is in talks with Tether Holdings Ltd. about support for its lending program, which will accept bitcoin as collateral.
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Oil fluctuates amid a truce in the Middle East and a reduction in reserves in the United States

On Wednesday morning, oil prices showed slight fluctuations, reflecting the impact of both signals of a reduction in fuel reserves in the United States and news of a truce between Israel and Lebanon.

Brent futures rose slightly, trading at $72.86 per barrel, slightly above the closing level of the previous session ($72.81). A similar trend is observed in the WTI oil market, which is trading at $68.79 per barrel.

The truce between Israel and Lebanon, announced by US President Joe Biden, has become a positive factor for the market, reducing geopolitical risks. At the same time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stressed that the duration of the truce will depend on the situation in Lebanon.

Market expectations regarding oil reserves in the United States also have an impact on prices. Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed an unexpected decrease in inventories by 5.94 million barrels, which supported oil prices. Official data from the U.S. Department of Energy will be released tonight.
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Britain fears Trump's trade restrictions

Britain cooperates closely with the United States in trade, exporting Land Rover cars, equipment, chemicals and medicines there. This dependence makes British businesses vulnerable to the trade plans of Donald Trump, who promised to raise tariffs on imports.

The United States is a key market for 9 of the 15 sectors of British exports, which is more than Germany and France. Despite the significant services sector, the export of goods is important for the British economy.

The American market is also important for AstraZeneca and GSK Plc pharmaceutical companies, which receive a significant portion of their sales in the United States. The total volume of trade between the two countries exceeded £300 billion in a year, and the United States is currently the UK's largest trading partner.

Nevertheless, analysts warn that even if the impact of Trump's tariffs is limited, his protectionist policies could negatively affect jobs, incomes and growth. In the worst case scenario, Trump's trade policy could lead to a decline in UK GDP of more than 1%. Even if Trump chooses a more moderate approach, the uncertainty of his plans is likely to have a negative impact on demand.
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Dollar at the bottom: the biggest drop in three months

The US dollar is experiencing a significant drop, which may be the largest in the last three months. Investors are reconsidering their position in relation to the so-called «trump trade», which led to the growth of the currency after his election victory.

The US currency index fell by 0.2% on Friday, increasing the decline this week to 1.1%, and remains at 105.

Trump's recent threats to impose tariffs and the appointment of Scott Bessent to the post of US Treasury Secretary, which is associated with government spending cuts, have caused unrest in financial markets. This led to a decrease in US Treasury bond yields and an increase in the long-term positioning index.

Experts believe that the fall in the dollar is also caused by exhaustion after a long period of growth that began after Trump's victory. The dollar is expected to fluctuate in the coming months before Trump's inauguration, when his economic policy will become clearer.
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Trump threatens the BRICS countries: 100% tariffs for attempts to move away from the dollar

Donald Trump expressed concern about the intentions of the BRICS countries to create an alternative currency to the US dollar. He warned that in the case of such a step, he could introduce tariffs at the level of 100%.

Trump also said that the idea that the BRICS states can move away from the dollar is no longer relevant. He urges these countries to guarantee that they will not develop a new currency for the BRICS and will not support any other currencies that could replace the powerful dollar. Otherwise, they risk losing access to the US market.

During his election campaign, Trump repeatedly stressed that moving away from the dollar would have serious consequences for countries that decided to take such a step. His team is discussing measures aimed at punishing both allies and opponents who want to conduct bilateral trade in their currencies, ignoring the dollar. Among the options under consideration are export restrictions, accusations of currency manipulation and various trade fees.

Trump has consistently argued that the US dollar should remain the global reserve currency. In an interview, he noted that he would not allow countries to move away from the dollar, as this would be a serious blow to the country's economy.
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Elon Musk files a fourth lawsuit against OpenAI

Elon Musk continues his legal battle with OpenAI, filing another lawsuit that calls into question the legitimacy of its commercial activities. According to Musk, OpenAI's actions create obstacles for other companies in the field of artificial intelligence in attracting investments and contribute to the emergence of unequal conditions of competition in the market.

The lawsuit alleges that OpenAI uses confidential information and interacts with Microsoft in ways that may violate the principles of fair competition.

The lawsuit, which involves not only Musk but also other high-profile industry participants, highlights the growing tensions around ethics and commerce issues in the field of AI. This is Musk's fourth lawsuit against OpenAI, and he expresses concern that the company has deviated from its original course as a non-profit organization created for the benefit of humanity.

This situation raises important questions about the future of artificial intelligence regulation, as well as how AI companies should balance commercial interests and ethical obligations to society.
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The British stock market is declining due to a record number of acquisitions

The London stock market is shrinking at the fastest possible pace due to active mergers and acquisitions. The number of delisting companies increased by 10% this year, the volume of transactions with British firms increased by 81%, exceeding $160 billion.

Foreign private capital is actively working in the market, as British stocks are attractive to investors due to a discount of more than 40% to their global counterparts. The main goals are medium-sized companies in the AIM market with low trading volumes and minimal analysis.

Experts warn of the risks of losing the UK's position in the financial market, as companies face difficulties in raising capital. This year, only 11 IPOs worth $1 billion took place on the London Stock Exchange, which is 11% less than last year.

At the same time, regulators are reviewing listing rules to attract more IPOs and hope to increase activity after their implementation. A decrease in the number of companies is also observed in other markets, which is associated with a decrease in the benefits of publicity and the activation of funds. Some experts believe that a wave of acquisitions can revitalize the market, returning funds to investors for new investments.
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The Bank of England may reduce the rate four times in 2025

The Bank of England is considering a fourfold interest rate cut in 2025 as inflation slows faster than expected. In the November forecast, the regulator has already laid out such a scenario in order to return inflation to the target of 2%.

After the statement by the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, the market reacted with an increase in expectations of monetary policy easing. At the moment, investors estimate the probability of a rate cut of 83 basis points by the end of 2025, which implies three or four downgrades.

Risks of a trade war and inflation

The Bank of England also takes into account external risks, including a possible escalation of the trade war if the United States imposes new tariffs after Donald Trump's election victory. This may complicate UK inflation forecasts, as the impact of trade barriers on prices will depend on the response of other countries.

Market impact and warning of deregulation

An additional factor influencing inflation will be the UK's October budget. Bailey stressed that excessive financial deregulation can lead to risks, but should not hinder economic growth.
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Oil prices are rising amid political instability in Syria

On Monday, oil prices jumped after reports of the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad by the opposition, which increased fears of an escalation of instability in the Middle East. Brent futures rose by 1.17%, reaching $72 per barrel, and WTI – by 1.32%, to $68.20.

Traditionally, any geopolitical aggravation supports the oil market, but the recent price cuts by Saudi Arabia and the extension of OPEC+ production cuts may weaken the market at the end of the year, as these actions indicate a reduction in demand from China.

Saudi Aramco has lowered prices for Asian buyers to the lowest level since the beginning of 2021. And OPEC+ at a meeting on Thursday postponed the increase in production until April and extended the reduction until the end of 2026. Production growth in the United States, meanwhile, is growing – the number of drilling rigs in the United States has reached its highest since mid-September.

Despite the oversupply in 2025, prices for Brent and WTI declined for two weeks in a row. Investors are preparing for a report on inflation in the United States, which may affect the Fed's policy. Analysts also warned that even with a possible Fed rate cut, concerns about a global economic slowdown will remain relevant.
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Germany introduces a temporary budget amid the dissolution of parliament

The German Finance Ministry has decided to introduce a temporary budget for the beginning of 2025. The reason for this step was the actual collapse of the coalition government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz and preparations for early parliamentary elections scheduled for February 23.

Finance Minister Joerg Kukis has initiated a special anti-crisis mechanism for managing public spending. The Interim Government will manage finances based on a pre-prepared draft budget until a new administration is formed.

The Interim Budget imposes limits on spending based on legislated commitments that are vital to the country's work. These include unemployment benefits, child support payments, student scholarships, and the continuation of ongoing or planned construction initiatives.

The need to introduce a temporary budget arose after the coalition parties failed to agree on a budget for 2025 in November. As a result, Chancellor Scholz dismissed Christian Lindner from the post of Finance minister. It is expected that on Monday the deputies will approve the procedure for the dissolution of parliament, which will create conditions for early elections.
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