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The crypto market is on the rise: bitcoin is moving towards $100 000

The capitalization of the crypto market has reached $3.355 trillion (+$67 billion). The share of bitcoin is 58.0%, ether – 9.7%. The fear and greed index rose from 43 to 47, reflecting neutral investor sentiment.

Trading on February 10 for BTC/USDT ended with an increase of 1%, to $97,430. Bitcoin's movement continues to correlate with stock indexes amid a lack of significant news about BTC reserves and regulatory measures.

One of the pressure factors was the escalation of trade tensions between the United States and China. Beijing has imposed tariffs of 15% on liquefied natural gas and coal, and 10% on oil. In response, the United States increased duties on aluminum and steel to 25%. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency market remains stable.

In the Asian session, bitcoin is trading at $98,240. The growth of futures on the S&P 500 index creates a favorable background, which can support the upward movement of cryptocurrencies. The target correction level is currently estimated at $102,500, with resistance at $100,000. A steady consolidation above $102,500 can change the current picture, which is dominated by sellers. Some altcoin/BTC pairs are growing in the altcoin market, which puts pressure on the bitcoin exchange rate against the dollar and may affect its further dynamics.

 

Deposit rates in yuan dropped to the lowest in six months

In February, the average rates on yuan deposits in the largest Russian banks fell below 4%. For three-month deposits, they amounted to 3.38% per annum, for semi–annual deposits - 3.66%, and for annual deposits - 3.85%. These are the lowest values since September 2024, when rates began to decline after peaking at 5.32% per annum in November.

The reason was the restoration of liquidity: the currency deficit recorded in August-September triggered an increase in interest rates, but later the situation stabilized.

Most depositors choose short terms of placement. On average, money is placed for 5.5 months, while in January 2025 87% of deposits in yuan were opened for three months. However, this instrument remains a niche one: over 94% of Russian deposits are still placed in rubles, as ruble deposits offer higher returns.

Experts predict a further reduction in deposit rates in yuan if the volume of this currency on the market continues to grow. The key rate of the People's Bank of China, which is 3.1%, may also affect the dynamics of rates.

 

Influx of capital sets stage for BTC growth

Experts believe that Bitcoin is heading for a period of prosperity. The first cryptocurrency is paving its way upward thanks to an influx of capital. This source of growth for BTC remains strong, although the situation could change at any moment.

Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating around $97,000, which is an expansion of the range it traded in from $98,600 to $95,000 last week. According to current data and technical indicators, Bitcoin remains in a strong position, although key levels of resistance and support will determine its next move. On Monday, February 17, BTC is trading at $96,230, trying to rise higher.

The price fluctuation range for BTC suggests potential profit-taking by market participants. The price distribution has shown strong support near $90,000, while resistance around $100,000 may determine the next step for BTC.

To date, the extreme price deviation ranges of MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) have shown strong volatility in the crypto, which has then decreased.

Although BTC briefly touched the upper deviation bands, overcoming this area would push it to new highs. On this path, Bitcoin is expected to face a short-term correction. Additionally, the current strong support level for BTC is near $93,000.

The UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) realized price distribution chart (URPD) has shown that a significant volume of BTC transactions took place in the range of $90,000 to $101,000. The concentration of transactions in these price zones suggests strong support and reduces the likelihood of the asset falling below $90,000 without substantial selling pressure. However, Bitcoin will need a strong bullish impulse to break higher.

From a technical standpoint, BTC's dynamics remain stable, trading slightly below its 50-day moving average of $98,801. The 200-day moving average for Bitcoin is at $80,021, providing long-term support. BTC's technical indicators signal cautious optimism regarding its near-term dynamics.

Analysts believe the first cryptocurrency may make another attempt to rise if buyers regain control of the situation. Experts are noting the potential for further BTC growth, given its current key support and resistance levels. A breakthrough above $101,000 would open the path to new highs, while an inability to stay above the $90,000 mark could trigger short-term bearish sentiment.

If Bitcoin breaks the resistance level of $99,470, it will trigger a new buying impulse, pushing its price back above the round $100,000 level. However, in the case of a prolonged correction and increasing selling pressure, BTC could fall below the support level of $94,660.

According to analysts, Bitcoin is entering a crucial phase. Its further dynamics will be determined by current support and resistance levels, as well as financial inflows from market participants.

According to the online analytical platform IntoTheBlock, the net inflow of BTC to crypto exchanges over the past week amounted to $1.4 billion. However, this flow of funds could dry up if the global economic and political situation worsens. Currently, among Bitcoin holders, there is a sense of indecision and tension, driven by geopolitical uncertainty.

The main factor behind the recent sharp inflow of funds into Bitcoin exchanges was the outflow of funds from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Previously, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs became a powerful driver for BTC growth at the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025. However, last week brought disappointments for crypto funds.

According to data from SosoValue, the net outflow of funds from US spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past week amounted to $651.83 million. This is the largest weekly outflow recorded from spot Bitcoin ETFs since the first week of September 2024. Experts believe this trend is due to some institutional investors selling Bitcoin either to take profits or in response to ongoing uncertainty following the sharp drop in BTC prices in early February.

Nevertheless, the first cryptocurrency remains focused on further growth. Among Bitcoin holders, there is an optimistic sentiment. The current situation supports the flagship asset, which, under any circumstances, is trying to stay afloat.

 

OPEC+ postpones plans to increase oil production again

OPEC+ is considering postponing the planned increase in oil production in April due to global market instability, despite US calls to lower prices. No final decision has been made yet, discussions are ongoing and may conclude in the coming weeks.

If production is not increased by 120,000 barrels per day, this will be the fourth postponement of plans to restore volumes that have been reduced since 2022. The alliance aims to achieve production growth of 2.2 million barrels per day by the end of 2026.

At a price of about $74 per barrel, many OPEC member countries are having difficulty covering budget expenditures. The Secretary General of the organization said that all decisions will be made taking into account the long-term consequences. The OPEC report also noted that the introduction of US trade duties could create an imbalance in the market and increase its volatility.

Initial plans to increase production, announced in June last year, have been postponed three times due to weak demand in China and rising supplies in America. According to the International Energy Agency, supply already exceeds demand by 450,000 barrels per day. Analysts' forecasts suggest a decline in oil prices to $60 per barrel by the end of 2025.

 

Will Ethereum Rally? Next Target – $3000

According to analysts, the recent price action of Ethereum (ETH) indicates a shift toward a positive trend. Experts anticipate a potential rally in the second-largest cryptocurrency, with $3000 remaining a key target.

Over the past month, Ethereum has declined by 15.5%. Currently, the asset is attempting to break above critical resistance levels. If successful, ETH could surpass $3000 and recover recent losses.

On the evening of February 18, Ethereum was trading at $2698, marking a 2.3% decline over the past 24 hours. The following morning, ETH opened higher, reaching $2674 but remaining below key resistance. At present, Ethereum is holding above the $2654 support level, with the next significant resistance at $2793. A break above this level would pave the way for a rally toward $3000 and beyond.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios
In an optimistic scenario, Ethereum could turn $2793 into new support, allowing for further growth toward the next resistance level at $3303. Such a sharp increase would boost investor confidence and accelerate the altcoin rally, according to analysts.

However, if Ethereum fails to break through $2793, consolidation will likely continue. Under worsening market conditions, ETH could face a sharp decline, potentially dropping to $2546 or lower, putting the bullish outlook in jeopardy and delaying the uptrend indefinitely.

Currently, assets like Bitcoin are under downward pressure, yet Ethereum has managed to hold its ground. The second-largest cryptocurrency has shown slight positive momentum, briefly surpassing $2700. Given this price movement, many analysts believe Ethereum is gaining momentum for a potential breakout.

Key Support Levels and Institutional Interest
Crypto analyst Ali identifies $2425 as a critical support level, highlighting it as a key accumulation zone for 10.33 million wallets holding 62.43 million ETH.

Market intelligence firm Santiment has also observed a strong performance from Ethereum. Analysts note that ETH has outperformed many altcoins this week, attributing this to increased transfers from exchanges to cold wallets, which often signals long-term accumulation. The firm believes Ethereum's growth is largely driven by renewed interest from the crypto community.

Despite lagging behind other leading assets, Ethereum continues to attract investors' attention. As market conditions improve, analysts expect ETH to recover, potentially surpassing last week's low and climbing back to $3000 and beyond.

Long-Term Outlook: Could Ethereum Rebound by 72%?
Many crypto strategists remain optimistic about Ethereum's trajectory. Crypto analyst Javon Marks suggests that ETH is emerging from a prolonged consolidation phase, with the potential to recover by 72% or more, returning to its all-time highs. Such a move could trigger a broader bullish wave across the altcoin market, reinforcing Ethereum's position as the leading altcoin.

In February 2025, spot Ethereum ETFs attracted significant institutional investments, totaling 145,000 ETH worth over $387 million. Compared to January 2025, capital inflows increased sevenfold, signaling growing institutional interest in Ethereum. If this trend continues, ETH is likely to challenge key resistance levels, paving the way for new all-time highs in the near future.

 

UK inflation changes interest rate expectations

Traders have revised down their expectations for the Bank of England's key interest rate after an unexpected rise in inflation in the country, reducing their confidence in two possible cuts of 25 basis points each before the end of the year.

Now market participants expect to reduce the rate by only 49 bps by the end of the year. Last week, the probability that three more cuts of 25 bps would be made was estimated at 50%.

According to the latest data, consumer prices in the UK increased by 3% YoY in January, indicating an increase in inflation compared with the December level of 2.5% and was the highest since March.

During trading, the yield on ten-year UK government bonds increased by 5.1 bps, reaching 4.612%, the highest level since January 29. The pound sterling weakened against the dollar by 0.25%, reaching around $1.2582.

In early February, the Bank of England lowered its base interest rate by 25 bps, reducing it from 4.75% to 4.5%. At the same time, two of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee favored a more significant reduction of 50 bps.

 

German elections led to a decline on European stock exchanges

European stock indexes are showing mostly negative dynamics against the background of the early elections to the German Bundestag. The exception was the German DAX index, which shows growth.

The British FTSE 100 recorded a slight decrease of 0.01%, reaching 8,658.25 points. The French CAC 40 dropped 0.31% to 8,129.46 points. At the same time, the German DAX rose by 0.54%, reaching the level of 22,385.15 points.

The Bundestag elections on Sunday attracted considerable attention. According to the results of the full vote count in 299 districts, the CDU/CSU bloc received 26.8% of the vote, taking first place. The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party took the second position with 20.8%. The Social Democrats (SPD), led by Olaf Scholz, came in third place with a score of 16.4%.

The Green party received the support of 11.6% of voters, while the Leftists collected 8.8% of the vote. The new Sarah Wagenknecht Union for Reason and Justice party failed to overcome the necessary barrier, gaining 4.972%. The FDP, which was previously part of the government coalition, also remained outside the Bundestag. Its result was only 4.3%.

Overall, the election results were received quite positively by the markets, despite lingering concerns about possible economic decisions by the new government in the current fiscal situation.

 

Global debt reached a record $318 trillion

Global debt increased by $7 trillion in 2024, reaching a record $318 trillion, according to data from the Institute of International Finance (IIF). This was the first increase in the debt-to-global GDP ratio in four years, due to a slowdown in economic growth. The highest borrowing levels will remain in the USA, France, China, India and Brazil.

The IIF focuses on the risks associated with the actions of «bond activists» – investors seeking to reduce budget deficits and debt burden through higher interest rates. The report highlights that fiscal issues are particularly relevant for countries with polarized political systems.

In the US, markets have been reacting calmly so far, thanks to economic activity and the status of Treasury bonds as a reliable asset. However, other countries may face serious difficulties.

The growth rate of debt has slowed compared to 2023, when the increase was $16 trillion. The IIF predicts a further decline in borrowing due to global economic instability and high credit costs, which will curb demand for them in the private sector.

 

Bloomberg: the ruble has become the best currency on the world market

Since the beginning of the year, the Russian ruble has strengthened by 15% against the dollar, making it the most successful currency in the world. This is due to the growing interest in Russian assets, according to Bloomberg analysts. According to experts, the excitement around these assets arose against the background of the negotiations between Moscow and Washington.

On February 18, representatives of Russia and the United States met in Riyadh, following which Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced an agreement to speed up the appointment of ambassadors and eliminate existing barriers in the work of Russian diplomatic missions.

Yesterday, closed-door negotiations between Russia and the United States ended in Istanbul, where issues related to the establishment of embassies were discussed. The parties agreed to hold a new meeting in the near future, and the State Department noted that the talks with the Russian delegation had been productive.

On Friday, the USD/RUB exchange rate increased by about 0.5%, approaching the level of 88 rubles. This week, quotes reached a low on August 4 at 85.37 rubles, after which they began to recover for the third day in a row against the background of the general strengthening of the dollar.

The US dollar index has continued to rise since Wednesday, returning above the 107.00 mark in anticipation of important data on PCE inflation in the United States, which may affect the Fed's interest rate forecasts. Additional support for the US currency is provided by Trump's new tariff threats against Canada, Mexico and China.

 

The ECB is on the verge of completing the rate cut cycle: disagreements are growing

The ECB is nearing the end of its interest rate reduction cycle, which is causing increased disagreement among its members. The borrowing rate is close to a neutral level, and the threat of tariffs from US President Donald Trump and rising defense spending are adding to the uncertainty.

The planned reduction of the deposit rate to 2.5% on Thursday, March 6, is likely to be the last decision reached unanimously. There is already a debate within the ECB about further steps, their pace and scale. The reason for the dispute is the risk that additional rate cuts may lose their effectiveness in supporting the weak eurozone economy. Some members warn of the consequences of excessive weakening.

Additionally, the economic prospects of the region may worsen due to US trade tariffs. However, a potential peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine, despite its current improbability, could be a key factor in improving the situation in the eurozone.