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Donald Trump may appear on a new $100 banknote

Brandon Gill, a Republican from Texas, intends to submit to Congress a bill envisaging the issuance of a new $100 banknote. Instead of the usual image of one of the founding fathers of the United States, Benjamin Franklin, a portrait of the current US President, Donald Trump, should appear on this bill.

In an interview with an American TV channel, Gill explained that the placement of Trump's portrait on the banknote would be a symbolic act of recognition of his achievements in the coming four years. The document accompanying the initiative states that starting from January 1, 2029, $100 banknotes should be issued exclusively with the image of Donald John Trump. Moreover, by the end of 2026, the Ministry of Finance is required to submit to the public a preliminary design of the new banknote.

The bill was named the «Golden Age Act of 2025», reflecting the initiator's desire to emphasize the importance of the period associated with the Trump presidency.

Earlier, a number of other Republicans also took initiatives to create new banknotes with the image of Donald Trump. So, in February, Congressman Joe Wilson from South Carolina proposed the development of a $250 bill. And in June 2024, Arizona representative Paul Gosar came up with the idea of issuing a $500 banknote, which should also feature a portrait of the former president.
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Oil is recovering after the collapse to the lows of 2021

Oil quotes showed cautious growth on Thursday after a 4-day collapse that sent prices to multi-year lows.

Brent futures for May delivery rose to $69.80 per barrel, while April WTI contracts reached $66.81. The previous trades were the worst for Brent since December 2021 – the asset lost 6.5%, while WTI dropped 5.8% to its lowest levels since May 2023.

The decline in prices intensified after the introduction of US duties on Canadian and Mexican energy resources, which coincided with OPEC+'s decision to raise production quotas for the first time since 2022. The partial softening of Washington's position, which exempted automakers from 25% tariffs, temporarily stabilized the situation. According to insiders, the administration is also considering the abolition of 10% tariffs on Canadian energy.

Market risks are intensifying against the backdrop of rising commercial stocks in the United States. According to the latest data, their volume increased by 3.6 million barrels to 433.8 million, which was ten times higher than analysts' forecasts. The decrease in gasoline and distillate stocks is solely due to the growth of export supplies.

Experts emphasize the double pressure on the market: trade restrictions threaten to reduce global demand, and OPEC+'s decision to increase production creates risks of oversupply. Thus, these factors form a stable bearish sentiment among investors.
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The US Treasury is considering the purchase of bitcoin

The US Treasury Department is exploring the possibility of buying cryptocurrencies for a strategic reserve, starting with bitcoin. This was announced by the head of the department Scott Bassett. The preparation of a discussion on these innovations coincides with a planned meeting of industry representatives with President Donald Trump at the White House.

Bessent clarified that at first, the reserve will be formed at the expense of confiscated digital assets. Subsequently, it is planned to explore additional mechanisms for further replenishment of such stocks.

The minister noted that the initial focus will be on Bitcoin, but the long-term goal is to create a universal cryptocurrency reserve. This suggests that other digital assets may be added to it in the future, underscoring the growing importance of cryptocurrencies in the U.S. economy and finance.

 

Memtoken $Trump brought Donald Trump hundreds of millions of dollars

Memtoken $Trump generated significant profits, which, according to estimates, reached at least $350 million. The bulk of the revenue, about $314 million, was generated through the sale of tokens, and an additional $36 million came from commissions.

An analysis of the Solana blockchain data shows that the largest part of earnings was concentrated in the first three weeks after the launch of the coin, which took place in January.

There is a possibility that the project could receive an even more impressive income through the sale of a limited number of tokens on the Binance crypto exchange. However, despite the active discussion, the White House did not give any comments on this issue. In addition, it remains unclear what the size of the president's personal profit is.

According to the information, 80% of the tokens are jointly owned by two organizations: CIC Digital LLC, affiliated with The Trump Organization, and Fight Fight Fight LLC, a company registered in Delaware. At the same time, it is emphasized that direct management is carried out by Fight Fight Fight LLC, and the president himself is not involved in the process of distributing and selling tokens.
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Coffee market crisis: Arabica rose in price by 70%

The global coffee trade is experiencing a severe crisis caused by a sharp jump in the price of coffee beans. This provoked a decrease in the volume of purchases from retailers.

At the annual convention of the American National Coffee Association, participants expressed growing concern about the rising cost of Arabica coffee, which has recently increased by 70%. The main reasons for this trend were a reduction in production and limited demand.

Some companies operating in the industry were on the verge of bankruptcy, while others reported forced production cuts. Despite this difficult situation, analysts suggest that by the end of the year, the cost of arabica beans may decrease by 30%.

This is due to the increase in coffee production in Brazil, despite the continued high cost. However, for a number of sellers, the current situation remains extremely uncertain due to market instability and unpredictable factors.
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The U.S. Dollar Is Preparing for Growth

After a recent surge in the euro, pound, and several other risk assets, the U.S. dollar has recovered some of its losses. The likelihood of further strengthening of the dollar has increased significantly after President Donald Trump downplayed the recent sharp decline in the U.S. stock market. This market turmoil was caused by concerns that his tariff policy might push the world's largest economy into a recession. However, Trump stated that he does not anticipate a recession in the U.S. Additionally, today's U.S. inflation data could influence the Federal Reserve's position on potential interest rate cuts.

Yesterday, during a meeting with representatives from several major American companies, Trump expressed his commitment to reviving the U.S. economy. "I see no issues with the economy. I believe this country will thrive," he stated on Tuesday at the White House. He acknowledged that markets experience fluctuations but emphasized that the key focus should be on guiding the country onto a new path.

Trump's comments came amid three weeks of volatility in the U.S. stock market and the dollar's weakness against several risk-sensitive currencies.

On Tuesday, stocks fell due to new tariff threats against Canada, the U.S.'s largest trading partner. This action led to a 10% decline in the S&P 500 index from its February high before buyers stopped the drop. Later, Trump signaled that he would ease the previously announced 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum for Canada, which helped further limit losses.

The sharp declines in recent weeks followed the president's and administration officials' warnings that the U.S. economy could face difficulties as they use tariffs to rebalance trade flows while implementing deep spending cuts and federal workforce reductions. In a recent interview with Fox News, Trump even refused to rule out the possibility of a recession.

It is worth noting that Trump previously viewed the stock market as validation of his economic policies, but in recent weeks, he has significantly downplayed its importance. He reiterated this stance in yesterday's speech. "No, it doesn't concern me," Trump said when asked about market volatility. "I think some people will make great deals by buying stocks and bonds. I think we are going to have an economy that is a real economy, not a fake one."

Trump's words appear to have positively impacted both the stock market and the U.S. dollar. Notably, today's U.S. inflation data will be released. If another wave of price pressure emerges, the Fed will likely abandon its near-term plans to cut interest rates, which would support the dollar against several risk-sensitive assets.

However, markets are pricing in different scenarios. If inflation exceeds expectations, we will likely see dollar strength and a decline in stock indices, as investors will reassess monetary policy expectations and anticipate more aggressive action from the Fed. On the other hand, moderate inflation data could trigger a rally in equities, as market participants would see it as a signal for the Fed to ease policy soon. However, excessively weak figures could raise concerns about slowing economic growth.

In any case, today's data will be crucial in shaping market trends in the coming weeks. Traders should follow the news closely and be prepared for volatility.

In the current technical outlook for EUR/USD, it is essential for buyers to reclaim the 1.0950 level. Only after achieving this can they aim for a test of 1.0980. If successful, a further push toward 1.1010 is possible; however, this may be challenging without strong support from major market players. The ultimate target remains the 1.1050 high. If the pair declines, I anticipate significant buying interest around the 1.0890 level. Should there be insufficient support at that point, it would be prudent to wait for a test of the 1.0840 low or to consider opening long positions near 1.0800.

As for the current technical outlook of GBP/USD, buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.2960. Only after surpassing this level can they target 1.3010, but moving beyond this point will become increasingly difficult. The ultimate aim is the 1.3040 area. On the other hand, if the pair declines, sellers will try to take control at 1.2915. A successful drop below this level would significantly undermine bullish positions and could push GBP/USD down to 1.2875, with the potential to reach as low as 1.2840.

 

Gold has broken its historical record

For the first time in history, gold quotes overcame the psychological level of $3,000, reaching $3,004.95. During today's trading, the quotes dropped slightly to $2,994.3. This price jump is part of a long-term trend: gold has risen in price by 14% since the beginning of the year, and by 82% over the past five years.

Analysts single out the trade war between the United States and the EU as one of the main factors behind the record rise in prices for precious metals. The introduction of mutual duties, as well as threats from President Trump about 200% tariffs on European alcohol, contributed to the fact that investors began to look for a «safe haven» in gold.

In addition, the weakening of the dollar also played a role: the DXY index fell by 4% in a month amid concerns about a slowdown in the US economy, which made gold more attractive to holders of other currencies.

In addition, central banks, especially in developing countries, are increasing their gold reserves: according to a survey by the World Gold Council, 81% of respondents plan to increase their gold reserves next year.

Finally, the decline in interest in cryptocurrencies after the introduction of regulatory restrictions also contributed to the influx of investments in gold. Between February 18 and February 21, 2025, gold ETFs recorded significant inflows of $5.2 billion amid geopolitical instability and economic risks.

 

Investors are refocusing: Indian market loses $1 trillion

International investors are actively leaving the Indian stock market, turning their attention to Chinese assets. Over the past six months, Indian stocks have lost 13% of their value, reducing their market capitalization by $1 trillion.

The main reasons were high inflation and rising interest rates. At the same time, China is attracting capital thanks to promises of stimulus measures: the Hang Seng index has grown by 36% since September, boosted by expectations in the field of AI and the success of the startup DeepSeek.

Foreign investors have withdrawn about $29 billion from the Indian market, a record for six months. These funds have flowed into China, which attracts confident prospects for economic recovery. As a result, China's share in the portfolio of the British Aubrey Capital Management exceeded India's share for the first time in two years.

Major players such as Morgan Stanley and Fidelity International are still interested in India, but are gradually reducing their investments. According to Nitin Mathura from Fidelity, the company has become more cautious and slightly reduced the share of Indian assets. The Chinese stock market, due to its cheapness and expected growth, has become an attractive alternative against the backdrop of the US-China trade war.

 

The Fed kept the rate at 4.25-4.5%

Following the meeting on March 19, the US Federal Reserve maintained its base rate at 4.25-4.5% per annum. According to the regulator, the economy is showing stable growth, the unemployment rate remains low, and the labor market remains stable. Inflation is still exceeding the target, although it has slowed down.

Starting in April, the Fed will begin reducing the amount of government bonds on its balance sheet from $25 billion to $5 billion, aiming to bring inflation to 2%. At the December meeting last year, the rate was reduced by 25 bps. In January, US President Donald Trump announced the need for an immediate reduction in interest rates.

In February, the consumer price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year and by 0.2% compared to January, when the annual rate was 3%. Experts predict an acceleration of inflation due to the current import duties, which may have an impact on the country's economy.

 

Fed's actions to keep BTC from falling? BTC seeks stability

Some analysts believe that the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy—particularly its decision to hold interest rates steady and slow down quantitative tightening (QT)—could provide meaningful support for Bitcoin. According to this view, the world's largest cryptocurrency no longer needs to fear hitting rock bottom. But not everyone agrees with that assessment.

On Wednesday, March 19, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, citing ongoing economic uncertainty. The news sparked a slight uptick across major crypto markets.

However, following the decision, Bitcoin slipped 1.8% to $84,400. By Friday, March 21, BTC was trading at $84,150, remaining within a tight range.

Fed holds rates, hints at cuts – what does it mean for markets?

While many market participants anticipated the Fed's decision, hopes were high for a more dovish tone and rate cuts beginning in 2025. In its statement, the Fed suggested it expects to lower rates twice by the end of the year.

The Fed emphasized in its statement:

-The US economy continues to grow.
-Unemployment remains low and stable.
-Inflation is still moderately high.
-The monthly cap on Treasury redemptions will be lowered from $25 billion to $5 billion.
-The cap on mortgage-backed securities will remain at $35 billion.

However, the Fed also noted that uncertainty in the economic outlook had increased, prompting it to monitor risks closely. Starting in April, the Fed will ease the pace of balance sheet reduction.

The monthly cap on Treasury redemptions will be lowered from $25 billion to $5 billion.
The cap on mortgage-backed securities will remain at $35 billion.
This effectively softens QT and signals a possible shift toward more accommodative policy. Analysts now widely expect two rate cuts by year-end.

Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, argues that a slowdown in QT will support Bitcoin. With the Fed scaling back Treasury runoff starting in April, Hayes believes that QT is essentially over, a move that could ease liquidity pressures and benefit risky assets, including crypto.

However, Benjamin Cowen, CEO of ITC Crypto, disagrees. He contends that QT isn't over in principle and that the Fed is merely slowing the pace of liquidity withdrawal—from $60 billion to $40 billion per month.

How are markets reacting?

Even though rates remained unchanged, expectations for cuts have risen. Analysts now see a 16% chance of a rate cut in May and more than 50% in June.

The S&P 500, however, continues to face headwinds amid ongoing trade tensions. Nick Pakrin, an analyst at The Coin Bureau, noted that investors were hoping for a more accommodative policy, although the Federal Reserve did not appear to be in a hurry to restart its monetary stimulus measures.

Experts point out that the Fed typically refrains from aggressive stimulus until rates approach zero. For now, any increase in global liquidity may come more from China and Europe than the US.

Trump pressures the Fed; Powell stays the course

President Donald Trump has spent months pressuring Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates, but Powell has held firm.

Nathan Cox, CIO at Two Prime Digital Assets, said that while Trump's trade wars were contributing to inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve remained focused on macroeconomic data rather than political noise coming from the White House.

Should the Fed commit to easing, crypto markets could respond swiftly. "Bitcoin could hit $200,000 by the end of 2025," research firm Bernstein predicts. "But if economic instability worsens, that rally could be delayed until 2026."

According to data from crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant, sentiment in the Bitcoin market has dropped to levels not seen since January 2023. The company's Bitcoin Bullish Sentiment Index fell to just 20 points—the lowest reading in two years and well below the threshold needed to sustain upward momentum.

CryptoQuant warned that the deteriorating macroeconomic and cryptocurrency environment was lowering the chances of a sustained Bitcoin rally in the near future.

Historically, Bitcoin has needed a sentiment score above 60 to support major price increases. Prolonged periods below 40 have typically aligned with bear markets. If the index remains under 40 for an extended time, it could signal a deeper downturn.

Survey data from forecasting network MYRIAD suggests that 68% of respondents expect Bitcoin to stay above $83,000 through next week—but anticipate a pullback afterward.