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Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by HFblogNews, May 9, 2022.

  1. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date 8th August 2023.

    Market Update – August 8 – Risk Appetite Picked Up.

    [​IMG]
    Risk appetite picked up,the US Dollar has been supported as Yields backed up and US futures outperformed. On the other hand, the advent of the August refunding supply left Treasuries heavy, especially in the wake of the debt warnings from the Fitch downgrade. Further erosion in recession outlooks contributed to the rally while the mix of earnings made for choppy upside action. Markets are looking ahead to this week’s US inflation report, after Fed’s Bowman suggested over the weekend that more hikes may be needed. NY Williams also left the door open for more hikes. Overnight we had seen China exports plunge again, which weighed on confidence.

    • FX – USD Index is choppy and holds close to 102. EUR and GBP corrected amid weak economic data and as confidence in a soft landing for the US strengthened. EURUSD sideways at 1.10, Cable holds in the downchannel, currently at 1.2765. USDJPY extended 143.45.
    • Stocks – The US30 led the way with a 1.16% surge, recovering from 3 straight declines. The US500 advanced 0.90% and the US100 was up 0.61% after 4 consecutive drops on both indexes. #BeyondMeat abandoned its hopes of becoming cash flow positive this year and cut its sales outlook, sending its shares down more than 8% in extended trading.
    • Commodities – USOil has corrected from recent highs and is currently settled at $80.90.
    • Gold – Ranging within $1930-$1938 area.
    Today: FOMC Member Harker speech, Eli Lilly, UPS, Duke Energy earnings on tap.

    [​IMG]

    Biggest Mover: (@6:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.76%) broke August lows at 0.6060. Next immediate support levels are set at 0.6050 and 0.6030.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  2. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date 9th August 2023.

    Market Update – August 9 – Defensive Stock Markets.

    [​IMG]
    Treasuries put in a good day, finding a solid bid as poor Chinese trade data elevated fears over global growth again. Also, there was weakness in the regional banking sector after Moody’s downgraded 10 small and medium sized banks. Fedspeak supported too after Harker and Barkin indicated the FOMC could probably be patient, though more data will be needed to make sure. Stock markets across Asia were mostly under pressure as yesterday’s bout of risk aversion lingered. Yields continued to decline and Bonds are also higher in Europe and the US, while European and US futures are finding buyers after yesterday’s sell off. Falling wages and the speculation of additional stimulus measures for China are also adding support.

    [​IMG]

    Overnight: China faces deflation as data for July showed that both consumer and producer prices dropped versus July 2022. CPI was down -0.3% y/y, the first decline since February 2021. PPI contracted -4.4% y/y, which was the 10th consecutive month of negative annual rates. It was the first time since November 2020 that both consumer and producer prices were in negative territory and the numbers are a further sign that both consumers and businesses are struggling, with plunging demand for exports and weak consumer spending weighing on the economy. The data will add to pressure on officials to do more to boost activity.

    • FX – USD Index corrected from yesterday’s highs and is at 102.334 as risk appetite improved. EURUSD sideways at 1.0970, Cable retests at 1.2800.
    • Stocks – Wall Street ended in the red but off of early lows. The US100 declined -0.79%, while the US30 was down -0.45%, with the US500 falling -0.42%. Financials and materials underperformed. The JPN225 closed with a -0.5% loss, Hang Seng and CSI 300 are also in the red. AMC rose nearly 3% after hours, while it has risen about 26% so far this year. AMC said that the current quarter was off to a strong start, driven by box-office hits such as Barbie and Oppenheimer, after posting a surprise profit and beating second-quarter revenue estimates.
    • Commodities – USOil spiked to $82.62.
    • Gold – was 0.3% higher at $1,930.18.
    Today: Disney earnings on tap.

    [​IMG]

    Key Mover: USOIL retests 10-month resistance, while it has fully recovered the week’s losses and is currently settled at 82.70.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  3. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date 10th August 2023.

    Market Update – August 10 – Disney missed forecasts – US Inflation ahead!

    [​IMG]
    Yields have moved higher, but stock market sentiment also improved as investors look ahead to key US inflation data. The Hang Seng underperformed overnight, but elsewhere indexes managed to move higher. European markets are narrowly mixed at the start of the session, US futures are moving higher. Bonds have pared overnight losses, but the US 10-year rate is still up 1.3 bp at 4.018%, while Bund and Gilt yields have lifted 2.7 bp and 2.4 bp respectively. Fears that the CPI report might be too elevated to keep the FOMC sidelined in September elicited profit taking on recent gains. In earnings front, Disney missed revenue forecasts, Disney reporting that streaming losses totaled $512 million in its fiscal third quarter, about half of the $1.1 billion loss reported in the prior-year period and less than the $777 million loss forecast by analysts. European gas prices rose 30% on fears over Australian supply.

    [​IMG]

    • FX – USDIndex was little changed at 102 after trading in a narrow range from 102.29 to 102.58. EURUSD higher at 1.1020, Cable jumped to 1.2760 from 1.2705.
    • Stocks – The US100 underperformed, sliding -1.17% on the weakness in big tech. The US500 dropped -0.7% and the US30 declined -0.54% with IT leading the way lower.
    • Commodities – USOil spiked to $84.26 breaking 11-month highs, supported by the spike of gas. European natural gas prices surged more than 30%, as the potential for liquefied natural gas supply disruptions from Australia spooked traders who have been betting against the price. A pop in USOIL prices to 11-month high at $84.65 added to anxiety over inflationary pressures.
    • Gold – is ranging at $1,915- $1,920.
    Today: US inflation and Jobless claims.

    [​IMG]

    Biggest FX Mover: CHFJPY (+0.56%) spiked to 164.89, with 165 the next resistance level.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  4. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date 14th August 2023.

    Market Update – August 14- CNH, CHINA50 slide, JPY nears 2022’s intervention zone, PPI ticks up.

    [​IMG]
    Asia is in dire straits: CHINA50 and HK are down more than 2% as problems with developer Country Garden intensify and the stock is down almost -15% at its lows after suspending trading on 11 onshore bonds. Its issuance dated 01/2024 has fallen as low as 9 cents, indicating a yield of 2500%: a bankruptcy now seems inevitable, it remains to be seen how much the system will be able to sterilise it. The USDCNH currently trades at 7.2757, what would be the highest settlement of the year. But it is not the only one: the USDJPY touched 145.20, a new one-year low for the yen. Last year above 146, the BOJ’s monetary defence with open market interventions had begun and many traders expect something similar this year.

    [​IMG]

    Back in the West, a higher-than-expected PPI figure favoured another red day for the US indices from which only the US30 was saved: that’s two weeks in a row of declines for both the US500 and US100. Remember that producer prices move ahead of consumer ones. Meanwhile, the USD continues to rise for the fourth week in a row and so does the Crude, up for 7 weeks in a row: the energy sector is now the best performer and has largely overtaken technology in short-term performance. Rates are on the rise again with the 2y at 4.90% and the 10y at 4.17%.

    • FX – USDIndex up for weeks in a row trading at 102.80 now, approaching the channel down and the 200MA; both EURUSD and CABLE are -0.10% (1.0938, 1.2681) and seem to be close to break down their 10 months long uptrends.
    • Stocks – US futures are -0.2% this morning, JPN225 -1.44%, AUS200 -0.87%, DAX -0.4% and clearly trading below its 50MA (as US100 is).
    • Commodities –USOil -0.96% at $82.24, UKOil -0.93% at $85.58, another red day for Copper ($370).
    • Gold – Down at $1913 as yield are rising.
    Today: No data till tonight when Japanese GDP, RBA minutes and Chinese Retail Sales + Industrial Production will hit the tape.

    [​IMG]

    Interesting Mover: US100 (0.15%) is trading below its 50MA and have broken the first steepest (yellow) trendline. 14935 area is now a weak static support.
    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Marco Turatti
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  5. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date 18th August 2023.

    BRICS Summit’s Bold Gambit: The Drive Towards a New Currency Takes Centre Stage.

    [​IMG]
    The BRICS summit serves as a gathering of strategic minds hailing from Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — a formidable union constituting nearly a quarter of global GDP and embracing 40% of the world’s populace. This annual convergence navigates a spectrum of vital concerns: trade, investment, innovation, development, and the orchestration of global governance. The 15th BRICS summit is set to unfold from August 22 to 24, 2023, with Sandton, South Africa’s iconic skyline, painting the backdrop.

    [​IMG]

    At the epicentre of this summit rests a notion that could potentially recalibrate the global financial paradigm: the inception of a unified BRICS currency. It is a proposition with profound implications, wherein some BRICS members are aiming to offer an alternative to the dominant US Dollar, which holds the reins of international trade and finance with an iron grip—commanding 88% of global transactions and 58% of foreign exchange reserves. Yet, BRICS nations have weathered the dollar’s storm—navigating sanctions, trade tensions, debt quandaries, and inflationary waves.

    Endeavours to free their economies from the dollar’s grasp are well underway. Consider Russia and China begging to trade in their own currencies, or the flourishing partnerships fostering alternatives such as the Euro and Gold. The potent Yuan has knitted stronger ties between Brazil, India, and China, while the New Development Bank (NDB) stands tall as a testament of their collective might—enabling BRICS to channel investments into robust infrastructure and sustainable dreams, all while dealing in their own currencies.

    [​IMG]
    However, fashioning a new currency is like sculpting a masterpiece. The path forward is laden with challenges, such as a delicate choreography of design, governance, issuance, distribution, exchange rates, and global acceptance. As they embark on this journey, we also have to acknowledge the differences in economic magnitude, structure, policy orientation, and strategic visions between these countries. These divergent elements, while inspiring, present challenges to the harmonious orchestration of a new currency.

    The dollar’s supremacy will not crumble overnight. Its roots run deep, fortified by the intricate web of global finance and unwavering trust. Governments, banks, corporations, investors, and individuals alike view the Dollar as a paragon of value, a cornerstone of commerce, a sanctuary for assets, and a bedrock for reserves. The allure of the US financial markets adds to its enduring power.

    The pursuit, though risky, promises metamorphosis. Imagine a new BRICS currency, vibrant and resilient, standing shoulder to shoulder with the Dollar. Should it emerge as a contender, it could provide a much-needed alternative, branching out international trade and finance. The repercussions would resonate, and potentially see the dollar’s dominance challenged, its grip weakened, and the stage set for a more diverse financial narrative. Beyond the tangible, if successful the new currency could shield the countries within BRICS from the tempestuous winds of external shocks and dollar-driven fluctuations. It could amplify their voice in global economic governance, adding to the world’s economic discourse.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Francois du Plessis
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  6. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date 21st August 2023.

    Market Update – 21 August – PBOC disappoints, markets quiet.

    [​IMG]
    APAC stocks traded mixed as the disappointment from China’s decision on its Loan Prime Rates overshadowed its recent support efforts; Hong Kong underperformed. PBOC opted for a narrower-than-expected cut to the 1-year LPR alongside a surprise hold on the 5-year LPR, which is the reference rate for mortgages. PBOC and regulators met with bank executives and told lenders to boost loans to support the economic recovery instead. Meanwhile Country Garden has been delisted from the Hang Seng as the real estate sector in China crumbles before our eyes.

    [​IMG]

    US500 futures were little changed on Sunday night after another losing week for the major averages: US100 closed the week lower about 2.6%, down for a third straight week for the first time since December. Meanwhile, the Dow closed the week lower by 2.2%, its worst streak since March. And the S&P 500 dropped 2.1% and posted its third consecutive losing week, which hadn’t happened since February. German PPI are just out, showing another consistent decline, but Unions at Woodside Energy’s North West Shelf offshore gas platforms on Sunday announced plans to strike as early as September 2nd, sending EU Natural Gas +18% this morning. On the inflation side we also have Japan, which is set to increase minimum pay by a record amount as inflation takes hold and 200 cargo ships are stuck waiting to cross the Panama Canal Water as shortages caused by the worst drought in 100 years have forced the canal operators to reduce the flow of traffic, which could have consequences for the global supply chain also as a result of what appears to be a still strong American consumer market.

    Panama channel congestion real time[​IMG]
    • FX – USDIndex is steady above 103 (103.32 now) and well above its 50-200 MAs; USDJPY found support above 145 (145.45 now), USDCNH heading north (7.33). NZDUSD keeps drifting lower (as does AUDUSD) after the Trade Balance data. Cable flat and lateral (1.2690 – 1.2765).
    • Stocks – US and EU Futures are flat, Hong Kong slides again (-1.60% at 17631) despite Country Garden delisting.
    • Commodities – USOil keeps recovering some ground, currently +0.61% at $81.88, the same for Copper steady at $371.20 after rebounding from the trendline last week.
    • Gold – flat at $1,889 as is Silver ($22.75).
    Today: No more relevant data after PBOC rate decision and German PPI earlier this morning.[​IMG]

    Interesting Mover: VIX (-0.27%) @ 18.45, is pulling back after having tested its 200MA on Friday (Opex day); It’s finally back above the area that has been support after 2020 and should consolidate here. A move to the upside would have the 20.50-22 area as the next target.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Marco Turatti
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  7. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date 22nd August 2023.

    Market Update – August 22 – US 10 year yield hits decades-long high, Tech rallies.

    [​IMG]
    Futures are marginally higher this morning after US100 and US500 snapped a four day negative streak yesterday with the tech heavy index posting its biggest advance of the month (+1.65%) boosted by Tesla and Nvidia‘s performances. The chip maker rose 8.47% after being upgraded by HSBC (target price $780) and only 2 days before the much-anticipated earnings report that will come out Wednesday after the bell when we’ll find out whether the company’s revenue forecast – which was 50% higher than Wall Street estimates – will come to fruition. The Tech rally held despite yields on US Treasuries spiking again with the 10Y closing at 4.342% – its highest level since November 2007 – the 2Y trading above 5% and 10Y real rates shortly hitting 2%. Typically higher rates are negative for tech and growth stocks as they affect their future flows discount (despite of their cost of financing) but this was not the case yesterday. On the stock side, Softbank’s chip unit ARM is set to list at Nasdaq, becoming the largest IPO of 2023. Also, Zoom shares climbed around 4% after the close after reporting earnings that beat expectations.

    [​IMG]

    • FX – USDIndex is trading at 103.04 right now (-0.16%), EURUSD is north of 1.09 (1.0918, +0.21%) and trading between its 50 and 200 MAs as CABLE is doing (1.2784). USDJPY is pulling back (145.89) after having touched 146.50 overnight.
    • Stocks – US and EU Futures marginally higher (+0.07% US30/+0.15% US100/+0.16% GER40); JPN225 rose 0.9% on tech strength while China slipped on Miners weakness.
    • Commodities – USOil -0.15% at $80.76 after having pulled back from $82.44 yesterday; Copper is catching a bid (+0.7% at $374.5) as are other metals (Palladium +0.62%, Platinum +0.82%).
    • Gold – Shy of $1900 despite higher rates.
      [​IMG]
    Today: EU current account, Richmond Fed Index, speeches from Fed’s Barkin, Bowman & Goolsbee.

    Interesting Mover: Nvidia rose 8.47% to $469.67, jumping above its 50-day MA and putting its recent highs ($480) in sight. Seems to have found support on the lower bound of an extremely steep channel; RSI heading higher and not overbought.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Marco Turatti
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  8. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date 23rd August 2023.

    Market Update – August 23 – Waiting for Nvidia, PMIs & Jackson Hole.

    [​IMG]
    On a day when Monday’s optimism had already faded in US markets, weighed down by both a new downgrade of the banking sector’s credit rating – this time by S&P – and the pullback of NVDA, one of the most interesting movements was the USD. Without any real news flow and without any abrupt movements in the bond market, the US currency appreciated steadily throughout the day – slowly but surely – especially against the currencies of the European continent (the YEN was saved from the selling and this is another piece of news). This was a purely technical movement, without any important levels being vulnerable – an adjustment of flows – but the EURUSD for example fell 97 pips from the highs to the lows of the day. All this on the day that the BRICS meeting in Johannesburg started, there was talk of ”inevitable de-dollarisation’‘ and President Putin assured that the trade in USD between the constituent countries is now only 28%. Back on the corporate side, retail is showing much more mixed results than the official stats show: yesterday MACY‘s dropped 14% after reiterating its conservative outlook, while LOWE‘s rose 3% after beating expectations; Nike has been down for 8 consecutive sessions, its worst streak ever. Today will see Peloton, Foot Locker, Abercrombie and especially NVIDIA after the close: implied volatility in the options market is for an 8.8% move after the results. Today is PMI day, tomorrow the Jackson Hole Symposium kicks off.[​IMG]

    • FX – USDIndex -0.05% at 103.42 after rebounding on its 200 MA yesterday; EURUSD sitting on its ST support (1.0855), CABLE 1.2748, YEN eked out a gain yesterday and is now trading at 145.667. USDCNH < 7.30.
    • Stocks – US and EU Futures higher (+0.28% US30/+0.56% US100/+0.42% US500/ +0.34% GER40); China50 -0.59% despite good BAIDU earnings results.
    • Commodities – USOil is below $80 ($79.54 now), UKOil relatively stronger at $83.87.
    • Gold – Rising at $1904.41, XAG outperforming (-1.17% at $23.67).
    Today: HCOB PMIs Composite, Manufacturing, Services in Germany, France, Europe, SP PMIs in UK, US, Home Sales in US, European Consumer Confidence.

    EURUSD, 30 mins
    [​IMG]

    Interesting FX Mover: EURUSD (+0.12% @ 1.0859) hovering around the support area of 1.0840/1.0855 after falling from a high of 1.0930 to a low of 1.0832 yesterday. MA 200 at 1.08.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Marco Turatti
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  9. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date 24th August 2023.

    Market Update – August 24 – NVDA posts stellar Q2 results; Stocks, Bonds, Metals rally on eve of Jackson Hole.

    [​IMG]
    Let’s start with NVIDIA that after the close reported results of a stellar Q2 and topped analyst estimates both on Revenues ($13.51 billion vs $11.22 billion expected) and EPS ($2.70 vs $2.09). The company raised its forecast again and expects its Q3 revenues to climb to $16 billion, an increase of 170% y/y. Gains are driven by the data center business. In after hours trading the chip-maker rose 6.57% also driving up AMD (+4%) and TSMC (+3.1%). Indices added to this week rally despite weak PMIs data around the Developed Markets that instead weighted on local currencies: EUR, GBP and USD fell in this order during the day after lackluster readings. Interestingly, the EURUSD perfectly rebounded on its 200 MA.
    [​IMG] US 30y mortgage rate soared to 7.31% and this led to the lowest Mortgage applications since 1995: despite that, US new home sales rose in July. Bonds rallied around the world with the UK Gilt up 2.13% after traders repriced the terminal rate well below 6% and a narrow majority of economists polled by Reuters now believe the September hike to 5.5% will be the last one. German Bund gave up >10 bps and the 10y US T-note is 17bps off this week’s high. All of this gave wings to Gold, which touched $1921, and especially Silver, which rose 3.88%. Overnight, Asia joined the party and China50 rebounded strongly from near one-year lows.

    US Mortgage 30 Years Rate and Mortgage Applications[​IMG]
    • FX – USDIndex -0.05% at 103.28, EURUSD flat at 1.0865 after falling as low as 1.0802 yesterday, GBPUSD -0.09% @ 1.2713 still between the recent 1.2615/1.2785 range, USDJPY back above 145 (breached yesterday).
    • Stocks – US Futures almost flat (-0.05% US30/+0.16% US100/+0.05% US500), EU Futures up 0.4%/0.6%; CHINA50 +1.42%, Hang Seng +1.91%, JPN225 +0.79%.
    • Commodities – USOil is below $79 ($78.48 now) despite the bigger than expected drain from Oil Stocks (EIA data).
    • Gold – holding at $1921, XAG consolidating at $24.23 after yesterday’s rally.
    LATER TODAY: US Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, JACKSON HOLE kicks off.

    [​IMG]

    INTERESTING FX MOVER: USDIndex (-0.05% @ 103.28) pulled back after rising as high as 103.90 in what could be the test of the upper bound of a channel. It is trading above both the 50 and 200 MA and both RSI and MACD are positive and upward sloping.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Marco Turatti
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  10. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date 25th August 2023.

    Market Update – August 25 – Powell at Jackson Hole, inflation mission not accomplished yet.

    [​IMG]
    US equity markets pulled back strongly yesterday with US30 having its worst day since March, US100 its second worst in August and US500 swinging down $105 from the daily high to the daily low and drawing a big bearish engulfing pattern. The mighty NVDA started trading up 6.50% and ended the day +0.10%; JPN225 leads losses in Asia this morning (-2%). Yields rose and USD strengthened. Markets are cautious before today’s Jerome Powell intervention at the Jackson Hole symposium. The general consensus is that he will try to stay neutral, with no big surprises but a slight tilt to the hawkish side. Nothing similar to last year of course: but the FED does not think its fight against inflation is won yet and the strong economic data give it some room to act. Some energy prices have started to rise again lately – see Oil or Gasoline – but also Rice and Pork Belly are getting extremely expensive: the Cleveland Fed inflation tracker anticipates August’s figures will show a noticeable jump. It’s not time to declare ”mission accomplished” yet.[​IMG]

    There has been some chatter about R* lately: this is the neutral interest rate of an economy, a mostly academic concept difficult to calculate and around which, incidentally, Powell developed his first speech in Jackson Hole in 2018. Nick Timiraos is a WSJ journalist who is known to be very close to the FED and in a recent article he brought up the subject of if the long-term neutral rate had not moved up in the US. Just yesterday, the WSJ also published an article wondering whether it was not time for the Fed to move the inflation target towards 3%. Is this perhaps a test of the reaction of the most informed and sophisticated investors? The Fed in June capped the R-Star at 2.5%: who knows if Powell will say anything about that and if there will be any news in September.

    We shall see at 14:00 GMT.
    • FX – USDIndex > 104 (104.12), EURUSD below its 50MA at 1.0783, GBPUSD 1.2570 (-0.24%), USDJPY 146.06, USDTRY pulling back (26.52) after the big drop yesterday following the hike to 25%.
    • Stocks – US100 closed -2.19%, US500 -1.35%, US30 -1.08%; NVDA +0.10%, TSLA – 2.88%, MSFT -2.15%, AAPL -2.62%, META -2.55%, GOOGL -2.09%.
    • Commodities – USOil in green for a second day, +0.65% at $79.36, Palladium keeps falling (-0.82% after yesterday’s -2.88%).
    • Gold – $1913, XAG -0.35% slightly above $24.
    LATER TODAY: Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, German IFO, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment index, ECB’s Lagarde speech. German GDP out at -0.2% y/y.

    [​IMG]

    INTERESTING MOVER: US500 (-1.35% the cash close @ 4376) gave up $105 (or roughly 2.5%) from the intraday high after testing from the downside the 50d MA and drawing a big bearish engulfing pattern.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Marco Turatti
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     

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