Hfmarkets (hfm.com): Market Analysis Services.

Date: 8th April 2024.

Treasury Yields Climb and Investors Anxiously Await March’s Inflation Reading!

• Economists expect inflation to rise from 3.2% to 3.4%, but the monthly incline to be lower than the previous month.
• The Dow Jones sees its worst week of 2024, but stocks rebound on positive employment data.
• The US economy added a further 303,000 more employed individuals and the unemployment rate fell to 3.8%.
• The US Dollar witnesses “mixed” price movement as investors wait for inflation confirmation and clarity on interest rates.

USA500 – Bond Yields Rise 50 Points Potentially Pressuring US Stocks!

The SNP500 is the index which is likely to be most influenced by this week’s earnings data. This is due to the index’s exposure to banking stocks. The price of the USA500 is technically still forming lower lows and lower highs which indicates a downward trend. However, corrective waves remain strong which indicate demand remains. Currently, the price is trading below momentum indications and below the “neutral” on oscillators. Therefore, the price is currently witnessing a weak “sell” signal. However, if the price drops below $5,197.16, indicators are likely to signal a stronger bearish signal.

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HFM · Apr 8, 2024 at 6:30 PM

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 9th April 2024.

Gold Renews Its All-Time Highs, But Oscillators Point to Caution!

• US indices underperform compared to global stocks as investors await the latest US inflation data.
• Oil is trading almost 22% higher in 2024 applying upward pressure on inflation and triggering a more cautious approach to tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index.
• The US Dollar declines and Gold rises in value despite the possibility of a more hawkish Federal Reserve.
• The head of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of Dallas, Mrs Logan, advises it’s too early to think about lowering interest rates since the danger of inflation stabilizing above the target level remains.

XAUUSD – Buyers Maintain Control but Oscillators Point To The Assets Being Overpriced

The price of Gold trades steadily higher during this morning’s Asian session and is attempting to break yesterday’s all-time high. Gold has risen more than 15% since February 2024 as investors look at an alternative hedge against inflation. In addition to this, many countries including China and India look to lower exposure to the Dollar ahead of US elections. However, investors should note that if US inflation reads higher than expectation, demand for the Dollar may return.

Investors also should note that the inverse correlation between Gold and the US Dollar is slightly weaker than traditionally seen. Therefore, even with a more expensive Dollar, the price of Gold may simply retrace or correct, but retain the longer-term gains. According to Friday’s report from the US Commodity Futures Commission, the number of speculative positions for “sellers” remains weak. The latest report confirmed that only 0.719k more contracts were added for sellers and more than 21.200k added for buyers.



Technical analysis for Gold is two sided. Momentum-based indicators point towards an upward price movement as does price action. However, oscillators indicate the asset may be trading above its intrinsic value and may correct. A short-term correction may decline between 2,292.29 and 2,318.78. For another bullish impulse wave, technical analysts point at a target of 2,376 based on Fibonacci levels and the size of previous impulse waves.

EURUSD – ECB Rate Cut Upcoming According to Analysts

The Euro is gaining momentum since the start of the European Trading session. However, the price is trading slightly lower than the day’s open price. In addition to this, in the short-term the price is forming lower lows and lower highs. When monitoring each currency individually, the US Dollar is trading slightly higher while the Euro is unchanged.

No major economic data has been released in the past 24 hours or is due today. However, volatility is likely to significantly rise from tomorrow onwards. If US consumer inflation reads 3.5% or more, the price of the Dollar is likely to gain. If the monthly producer inflation on Thursday also reads higher than 0.3%, this will further fuel a potential bearish impulse wave.

However, another key factor will be the European Central Bank’s Rate Decision and Forward Guidance. If the ECB suddenly become more dovish, as analysts believe, the Euro may again struggle to hold onto its value, if the Fed are unlikely to adjust. Currently there is more pressure on the ECB to cut interest rates considering inflation has returned to normal levels amongst most state members and most countries are witnessing stagnation. Analysts currently expect the European regulator to be the first to cut interest rates and believe this will take place in June.




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 10th April 2024.

The Fed Is Willing To Lower Expectations To Only 1 Cut In 2024!



* European defence stocks tumble and see the largest decline in 18 months as Goldman Sachs analyst warns the category is trading above its true value.
* US Treasuries Yields and the US Dollar Index remain unchanged as investors hold their breath ahead of today’s inflation release.
* Analysts expect US inflation to increase from 3.2% to 3.4%, but for Core inflation to decline to 3.7%.
* Federal Reserve President of the Atlanta bank, Mr Bostic, advises he is willing to adjust the outlook to only 1 rate cut in 2024. Keep reading to find out why and what the requirements will be.

GER40– Defence Stocks Overvalued According to Goldman Sachs

The DAX as well as general European Indices came under pressure from comments from a market respected analyst. According to the Goldman Sachs Analyst, Victor Allard, shares in European defensive stocks were trading above their true value and have little potential for further gains. As a result, stocks such as Rheinmetall AG, BAE Systems and Saab AB witnessed sharp declines. Saab AB stocks fell almost 10% within a single session.

However, the sentiment towards European stocks were dampened as a result of this. The main reason for Mr Allard’s view is the stock ratios do not back the growth. A good example of this is the price to earnings which is extremely high. Furthermore, Allard pointed out that defence stocks trade now at nearly 20 times forward earnings.

When monitoring the top 7 stocks which hold the highest weight within the index, the market can see a clear sign of profit taking. Five of these stocks have risen more than 10% in 2024 so far, which is higher than traditional gains, but over the past five days a large portion of that has been lost. The only stock which has seen strong gains and has maintained its momentum is Mercedes Benz which has risen almost 22% in 2024 so far. The most important stocks for the index during this earnings data will remain SAP SE, Siemens AG and Allianz.



The price of the index will now largely depend on tomorrow’s European Central Bank press conference and statement. Investors are keen to see when the ECB and Federal Reserve are likely to cut interest rates. If the regulator takes a more dovish approach, the economy is likely to witness much needed stimulation and investor sentiment towards the region is likely to rise. In addition to this, the Euro can potentially make indices cheaper to buy. As a result, this can support the DAX as well as other European indices. In the meanwhile, this afternoon’s US inflation data will be the key price driver for all assets.

USA100 – Price Performance Dependent on Fed Rate Adjustments and Today’s CPI!

The performance of the USA100 will primarily be dependent on this afternoon’s inflation data. However, technical analysts have been keen to point out that the US stocks have been unwilling to form strong longer-term declines. Nonetheless, higher inflation potentially can trigger a lower risk appetite and lower demand for equities. Particularly investors will be looking to see if inflation reads higher than the 0.3% expectations, including the Core CPI.

Later within the evening, investors will also be closely monitoring the FOMC Meeting Minutes for clues as to where the committee stand on possible interest rate cuts. This week Mr Bostic has already advised he would be willing to lower expectations for future cuts if inflation does not allow the Fed to act. According to Mr Bostic, he could consider lowering possible future adjustments from 3 cuts to only 1 for 2024. However, Mr Bostic said this was only possible if inflation stabilized above the target and the employment sector remains resilient. So far, jobs growth remains and it’s all dependent on inflation.



Technical analysis for the USA100 is signalling neither a sell or buy. The price is trading slightly higher than the 75-Bar EMA and at the 55.00 mark on the RSI. However, the price is forming a horizontal price range this morning. Therefore, for a buy signal to be confirmed, the price will need to form a bullish breakout and ideally inflation will not beat expectations.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 12th April 2024.

Producer Inflation On The Rise, But Will Earnings Hold Demand Steady?

• Producer inflation rose slightly less than previous expectations, but the annual figure continues to rise. The annual PPI rose to 2.1% and the Core PPI rose to 2.4%.
• The NASDAQ and SNP500 end the day higher, but the Dow Jones continues to struggle.
• This morning earnings kick off with the banking sector including JP Morgan, BlackRock and Wells Fargo. All 3 stocks trade higher during pre-trading hours.
• The Euro trades lower against all currencies despite the ECB’s attempt to establish a hawkish tone.

USA100 – The NASDAQ Climbs Higher, But Is the Growth Sustainable?

The NASDAQ was the only index which did not witness a significant decline at the opening of the US session. In addition to this, the USA100 is the only index which is witnessing indications of a bullish market.

The price has crossed onto a higher high breaking the resistance level at $18,269. The index is also trading above the 75-Bar EMA and at the 65.00 level on the RSI which signals buyers are controlling the market. However, a similar large bullish impulse wave was also formed on the 3rd and 5th of the month and was followed by a correction. Therefore, investors need to be cautious of a bearish breakout which may signal a correction back to the 75-bar EMA (18,165). The medium-term growth and its sustainability will depend on the upcoming earnings data.

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HFM · Apr 12, 2024 at 5:51 PM

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 15th April 2024.

Market News – Negative Reversion; Safe Havens Rally.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• Markets weigh risk of retaliation cycle in Middle East. Initially the retaliatory strike from Iran on Israel fostered a haven bid, into bonds, gold and other haven assets, as it threatens a wider regional conflict.
• However, this morning, Oil and Asian equity markets were muted as traders shrugged off fears of a war escalation in the Middle East. Iran said “the matter can be deemed concluded”, and President Joe Biden has called on Israel to exercise restraint following Iran’s drone and missile strike, as part of Washington’s efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East and minimize the likelihood of a widespread regional conflict.
• New US and UK sanctions banned deliveries of Russian supplies, i.e. key industrial metals, produced after midnight on Friday. Aluminum jumped 9.4%, nickel rose 8.8%, suggesting brokers are bracing for major supply chain disruption.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The USDIndex fell back from highs over 106 to currently 105.70.
• The Yen dip against USD to 153.85.
• USOIL settled lower at 84.50 per barrel and Gold is trading below session highs at currently $2357.92 per ounce.
• Copper, more liquid and driven by the global economy over recent weeks, was more subdued this morning. Currently at $4.3180.
  d86b3b8c9fa1a15147f6e31cb2e433f9
  HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
  
  Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
  
  Click HERE to READ more Market news.
  
  Andria Pichidi
  Market Analyst
  HFMarkets
  
  Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  

 

Date: 16th April 2024.

Market News – Stocks and currencies sell off; USD up.


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• Stocks and currencies sell off, while the US Dollar picks up haven flows.
• Treasuries yields spiked again to fresh 2024 peaks before paring losses into the close, post, the stronger than expected retail sales eliciting a broad sell off in the markets.
• Rates surged as the data pushed rate cut bets further into the future with July now less than a 50-50 chance.
• Wall Street finished with steep declines led by tech. Stocks opened in the green on a relief trade after Israel repulsed the well advertised attack from Iran on Sunday. But equities turned sharply lower and extended last week’s declines amid the rise in yields.
• Investor concerns were intensified as Israel threatened retaliation.
• There’s growing anxiety over earnings even after a big beat from Goldman Sachs.
• UK labor market data was mixed, as the ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly lifted, while wage growth came in higher than anticipated – The data suggests that the labor market is catching up with the recession. Mixed messages then for the BoE.
• China grew by 5.3% in Q1 however the numbers are causing a lot of doubts over sustainability of this growth. The bounce came in the first 2 months of the year. In March, growth in retail sales slumped and industrial output decelerated below forecasts, suggesting challenges on the horizon.
• Today: Germany ZEW, US housing starts & industrial production, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speech, BOE Bailey speech & IMF outlook.
• Earnings releases: Morgan Stanley and Bank of America.

Financial Markets Performance:

• The US Dollar rallied to 106.19 after testing 106.25, gaining against JPY and rising to 154.23, despite intervention risk. Yen traders started to see the 160 mark as the next Resistance level.
• Gold surged 1.76% to $2386 per ounce amid geopolitical risks and Chinese buying, even as the USD firmed and yields climbed.
• USOIL is flat at $85 per barrel.
• 68b0e32796a335024b9802981dbe7f6d.png
  HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
  
  Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
  
  Click HERE to READ more Market news.
  
  Andria Pichidi
  Market Analyst
  HFMarkets
  
  Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  

 

Date: 17th April 2024.

Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak.


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed.
• Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.”
• Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024.
• US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks.
• UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts.
• Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5.
• IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report.

Financial Markets Performance:

• USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention.
• USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel.
• Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar.

Market Trends:

• Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively.
• Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 18th April 2024.

Market News – Stock markets benefit from Dollar correction.


Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

• Technical buying, bargain hunting, and risk aversion helped Treasuries rally and unwind recent losses. Yields dropped from the recent 2024 highs.
• Asian stock markets strengthened, as the US Dollar corrected in the wake of comments from Japan’s currency chief Masato Kanda, who said G7 countries continue to stress that excessive swings and disorderly moves in the foreign exchange market were harmful for economies.
• US Stockpiles expanded to 10-month high. The data overshadowed the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as traders await Israel’s response to Iran’s unprecedented recent attack.
• President Joe Biden called for higher tariffs on imports of Chinese steel and aluminum.
• 85aa69f51025a4245b89648d799bc914
  Market Trends:
  
  • Wall Street closed in the red after opening with small corrective gains. The NASDAQ underperformed, slumping -1.15%, with the S&P500 -0.58% lower, while the Dow lost -0.12.
  • The Nikkei closed 0.2% higher, the Hang Seng gained more than 1.
  • European and US futures are finding buyers.
  • A gauge of global chip stocks and AI bellwether Nvidia Corp. have both fallen into a technical correction.
  • The TMSC reported its first profit rise in a year, after strong AI demand revived growth at the world’s biggest contract chipmaker. The main chipmaker to Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. recorded a 9% rise in net income, beating estimates.
  Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
  
  Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
  
  Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
  
  Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
  
  Click HERE to READ more Market news.
  
  Andria Pichidi
  Market Analyst
  HFMarkets
  
  Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
  

 

Date: 19th April 2024.

Weekly Commodity Market Update: Oil Prices Correct and Supply Concerns Persist.



The ongoing developments in the Middle East sparked a wave of risk aversion and fueled supply concerns and investors headed for safety. Hopes for imminent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve diminish while attention is now turning towards the demand outlook.

The Gold price hit a high of $2417.89 per ounce overnight. Sentiment has already calmed down again and bullion is trading at $2376.50 per ounce as haven flows ease. Oil prices initially moved higher as concern over escalating tensions with the WTI contract hit a session high of $85.508 per barrel overnight, before correcting to currently $81.45 per barrel.

Oil Prices Under Pressure Amid Middle East Tensions

Last week, commodity indexes showed little movement, with Oil prices undergoing a slight correction. Meanwhile, Gold reached yet another record high, mirroring the upward trend in cocoa prices.

Once again today, USOil prices experienced a correction and has remained under pressure, retesting the 50-day EMA at $81.00 as we moving into the weekend. Hence, despite the Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran, sentiments stabilized following reports suggesting a measured response aimed at avoiding further escalation. Brent crude futures witnessed a more than 4% leap, driven by concerns over potential disruptions to oil supplies in the Middle East, only to subsequently erase all gains. Similarly with USOIL, UKOIL hovers just below $87 per barrel, marginally below Thursday’s closing figures.

Nevertheless, volatility is expected to continue in the market as several potential risks loom:

1. Disruption to the Strait of Hormuz: The possibility of Iran disrupting navigation through the vital shipping lane, is still in play. The Strait of Hormuz serves as the Persian Gulf’s primary route to international waters, with approximately 21 million barrels of oil passing through daily. Recent events, including Iran’s seizure of an Israel-linked container ship, underscore the geopolitical sensitivity of the region.
2. Tougher Sanctions on Iran: Analysts speculate that the US may impose stricter sanctions on Iranian oil exports or intensify enforcement of existing restrictions. With global oil consumption reaching 102 million barrels per day, Iran’s production of 3.3 million barrels remains significant. Recent actions targeting Venezuelan oil highlight the potential for increased pressure on Iranian exports.
3. OPEC Output Increases: Despite the desire for higher prices, OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have constrained output in recent years. However, sustained crude prices above $100 per barrel could prompt concerns about demand and incentivize increased production. The OPEC may opt to boost oil output should tensions escalate further and prices surge.
4. Ukraine Conflict: Amidst the focus on the Middle East, markets overlooking Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Potential retaliatory strikes by Kyiv on Russian oil infrastructure could impact exports, adding further complexity to global oil markets.

2024-04-19_15-04-24.jpg
HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past perfrmance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 22nd April 2024.

The NASDAQ Gains As Earnings Gain Momentum, But More Bad News For Tesla.

• Investors turn their attention to the “magnificent seven” and earnings reports as the countdown begins.
• The NASDAQ and most global indices trade higher on Monday with the NASDAQ leading gains. Investors concentrating on earnings from Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet and Tesla.
• Tesla announces it will slash its prices once again as sales decline. The stock trades almost 41% lower in 2024.
• The Euro gains momentum as the European Cash Open nears and is the best performing G7 currency of the day so far.

USA100 – Earnings Season Gains Momentum, More Bad News for Tesla

Last week the NASDAQ’s decline marked the worst week since November 2022, but the price trades higher on Monday. Currently the NASDAQ is the best performing global index, but its performance will largely be dependent on earnings.

So far, technical analysis is still indicating a downward trend and continues to form higher lows as well as highs. The asset also continues to trade lower than the main trend lines, Moving Averages and in the “sell” zone of the RSI. Based on the past 3 retracements, the average retracement size is 1.41%, which means similar retracements could see the price rise a further 0.42%. If the price rises above this level or above $17,234 (Fibonacci retracement 60.0 level), the possibility of a correction or new trend rises.

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HFM · Apr 22, 2024 at 4:27 PM

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

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