Hfmarkets (hfm.com): Market Analysis Services.

Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by HFblogNews, May 9, 2022.

  1. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date: 4th September 2024.

    Stocks Suffer Sharpest Drop Since August 5th, What’s Next?

    [​IMG]
    • The stock market witnesses its worst session since August 5th. The NASDAQ drops more than 3.00% as 80% of its stocks decline.
    • The VIX rises more than 5% indicating a low risk appetite as investors fear lower consumer demand and the unwinding of certain hedge positions.
    • The price of the Japanese Yen increases in value for a second consecutive day.
    • ISM PMI data improves but investors turn their attention to JOLTS Job Openings and NFP.
    NASDAQ (USA100) – 80% of Stocks Decline But Will Investors Buy The Dip?

    The NASDAQ is trading at its lowest price since August 13th after witnessing its worst trading day since August 5th. Throughout all 3 trading sessions the price of the index fell 3.40% and is now trading firmly below trend lines and neutral levels on Oscillators. The question now is whether the price is oversold and if investors are unwilling to trade at such high prices.

    [​IMG]

    The decline was not solely related to the NASDAQ, but the whole US stock market as well as global stocks. The NIKKEI225 fell a further 1.50% today and the DAX is due to open 0.60% lower. Simultaneously the VIX is trading higher for a third consecutive day. These are known to be indications of lower sentiment towards stocks.

    The decline came about due to the lower risk appetite, the unwinding of hedge positions which involved the Japanese Yen and fear of lower consumer demand. The index was also influenced by the higher PMI data from the ISM which indicated higher economic sentiment. As a result, a 50-basis point rate cut becomes less likely applying further pressure on the stock market. However, this will also depend on this week’s employment data and next week’s inflation rate.

    All of the 12 most influential stocks fell in value and of the top 50 influential only 7 ended the day at a higher price. The question now is whether investors will now look to purchase the lower price. This will largely depend on today’s JOLTs Job Openings which analysts expect to read slightly above 8 million. Ideally investors will want to see higher job openings in order to give them confidence the consumer demand will not fall. According to economists, even with a slightly higher figure, the Federal Reserve is still likely to cut interest rates.

    Since the opening of the European Cash Open, the VIX has slightly fallen and European stocks are attempting a rebound. This is also something traders will monitor because if the momentum continues it may indicate a different price movement, such as a correction. Nonetheless, this will still largely depend on today’s release.

    USD/JPY – Technical Analysis

    The Japanese Yen is the day’s best performing currency while the US Dollar is the worst performing currency. The USDJPY is also trading below the trend-line, 100-Period SMA and below the 50.00 level on the RSI. The exchange rate has also fallen below 144.904 which is a key level on the Fibonacci levels.

    The Institute for Supply Management reported that in August, the US Manufacturing PMI increased slightly from 46.8 to 47.2 points, but still signals a slowdown in the industry. This slowdown meets the Federal Reserve’s conditions for easing monetary policy. Many experts now expect the Fed to lower interest rates three times, by a total of 100 basis points, by the end of the year. If the day’s JOLTS Job Openings read lower than 8 million, the US Dollar can witness higher downward momentum.

    [​IMG]


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Michalis Efthymiou
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  2. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date: 5th September 2024.

    US Jobs Vacancies Fall to 3-Year Low Pressuring The US Dollar!

    [​IMG]

    • US Job Vacancies drop to their lowest level in more than 3 years. The US Dollar Index declines.
    • The best performing currency of the week is the Japanese Yen. Investors are turning to the only Central Bank which is not going to cut rates in 2024.
    • The possibility of a 50-basis point rate cut increases, but economists stick to their 0.25% predictions for now.
    • Oil prices fall close to lowest levels of 2024. Shareholders expect lower oil prices to prompt a lower inflation rate over the next 2 months.
    USDJPY – JOLTS Job Data Points To Potential Larger Rate Cuts!

    The price of the US Dollar came under pressure from the latest US job vacancies figures which fell below expectations. US Job Vacancies dropped to their lowest level in more than 3 years. The US Dollar Index as a result fell 0.42% and continues to be the worst performing currency of the day this morning. The Japanese Yen is currently increasing 0.43% higher and is the day’s best performing currency. This ensures no conflict between the two currencies so far, but investors will need to ensure this trend continues while they trade.

    The July JOLTS job openings data was released today, revealing a decrease from 8.18 million to 7.67 million, signaling continued weakening in the labor market and raising the chances of a significant rate cut. Additionally, the Fed’s Beige Book economic review will be published later in the day, providing insight into the current economic conditions across different regions of the US.

    According to experts, the possibility of the Bank of Japan again increasing interest rates is growing but the timing is not yet certain. However, even without an interest rate hike, the Japanese Yen is likely to witness support as global banks cut rates. This includes the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank. During this morning’s Asian session, the Japanese Yen has risen in value against all currencies. Though, investors will monitor that this does not change as the European trading session starts.

    USDJPY – Technical Analysis Update

    In terms of technical analysis, the exchange rate on the daily timeframe is witnessing divergence and the volatility over 3 days is as much as we saw over the past week and a half. Therefore, the possibility of a retracement remains. However, on smaller time frames, momentum indicators continue to point towards the Japanese Yen gaining.

    Copy-of-TELEGRAM-20-1024x577.png
    HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Michalis Efthymiou
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  3. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date: 9th September 2024.

    Market Update – How Aggressively Might the Fed Cut Interest Rates?

    [​IMG]
    The August jobs data did not provide the clarity on the rate outlook that had been hoped and left the markets to their own devices. Concurrently, comments from Fed Governor Waller left the door open for an aggressive -50 bps cut after he said he favored front-loading policy action, but stressed only if appropriate.

    Asia & European Sessions:

    • European & US equity markets open in the green, following a recent selloff due to weaker-than-expected US jobs data. Wall Street plunged on Friday, as the NASDAQ collapsed -2.55%, with the S&P 500 and Dow down -1.73% and 1.01%, respectively.
    • Asian markets followed the global downturn, with stocks in Taiwan, Australia, and Japan experiencing declines. Nikkei dropped for a 5th consecutive day.
    • Asia’s benchmark index fell to a 3-week low. Chinese stocks are on the brink of falling to the 5-year low seen in February due to weak earnings and economic recovery. The CSI 300 Index has fallen over 13% since its peak in May, reflecting ineffective policy efforts to revive the economy. Market pessimism in China is fueled by deflationary pressures, weak consumer demand, and a prolonged property slump.
    • Economic experts suggest that unless there is a significant policy shift, bearish sentiment may persist.
    • Japan: Q2 GDP was revised down to a 0.7% pace, bouncing from the -0.6% contraction in Q1. It ties Q2 2023 for the fastest pace of growth since the 1.3% rate in Q1 2023. The deflator was revised up to a 3.2% y/y rate from 3.0% y/y.
      • BOJ: The data leave the door open for another BOJ hike down the road, though we suspect policymakers will be sidelined at the upcoming meeting on September 20 to further assess conditions.
    • China CPI edged up to a 0.6% y/y rate in August. It is a seventh month in positive territory after four straight months of deflation (from October through January). Nevertheless, price weakness continues to reflect the slack in demand and the very sluggish growth pace in the economy. And even more serious, PPI plunged to -1.8% y/y in August from -0.8% y/y, the biggest drop since April. And producer prices have been in deflation since September 2022.
    While a September Fed rate cut is expected, uncertainty remains about the scale and frequency of future cuts.

    [​IMG]

    Financial Markets Performance:

    • The USDindex slumped to 100.58 before bouncing to a 101.187 close.
    • The USDJPY lifted to 143.21. The Yen corrected, which helped to limit the slide in the Nikkei.
    • The EURUSD and Cable are lower, at currently 1.1059 and 1.31 respectively.
    • Oil drifted to $66.67 before recovering slightly to $68.20. Oil marked its lowest close since 2021 after a deep weekly loss pushed futures near levels regarded as oversold, with the focus on weather risks (Storm in Mexico) and reports this week that may clarify the demand outlook.
    • Gold tumbling between $2485-2500.
    • Iron ore prices fell below $90 per ton for the first time since 2022.
    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  4. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date: 10th September 2024.

    Market Update – Markets prepare for US CPI & Harris-Trump high-stake debate.

    [​IMG]
    Asia & European Sessions:

    • Wall Street recovered slightly from Friday’s dip. Dip buying got the ball rolling and short covering has added to the bullish momentum.
    • Expectations for a soft, rather than hard landing, with the FOMC expected to cut rates by only -25 bps rather than -50 bps have supported as well. The advent of the Treasury’s $119 bln in auctions, along with a heavy corporate calendar also weighed.
    • Nvidia and Tesla have paced the strength in big tech. The Dow advanced 1.2%, with the S&P500 and NASDAQ climbing 1.16%. Strength was broadbased. Five of the 11 S&P 500 sectors posted gains of better than 1%, led by consumer discretionary and IT.
    • Sights are on today’s presidential debate and then CPI Wednesday.
    • European stock markets are narrowly mixed in early trade, with the FTSE 100 underperforming, after a drop in the ILO unemployment rate. The overall labor market report was not as clear-cut, but the data will add to the arguments against back to back cuts and another move from the BoE this month.
    • German HICP inflation was confirmed at 2.0% y/y. The data will add to the arguments in favor of a cautious cut from the ECB on Thursday.
    [​IMG]

    Financial Markets Performance:

    • The USDindex found its footing and rose to 101.68 from an overnight low of 101.14.
    • The USDJPY lifted to 143.21. The Yen corrected, which helped to limit the slide in the Nikkei.
    • Oil returned to $67.60 after Monday’s gain, driven by the return of a risk-on tone to wider markets.
    • Gold edged up 0.36% to $2506.38 ahead of US Inflation tomorrow.
    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  5. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date: 11th September 2024.

    Market Update – Safe Havens in Demand; Eyes on CPI.

    [​IMG]
    Investors remain cautious about the gloomy outlook for China’s economy & worry that the Fed has delayed easing monetary policy. Traders are anticipating at least 1 significant rate cut this year, ahead of the CPI report, which is expected to show modest inflation growth.

    Asia & European Sessions:


    • Asian equities dropped for a 3rd consecutive session, with Japan and Hong Kong leading the downturn.
    • US stock futures slid overnight by 0.6%, as renewed fears of slowing growth in major economies coincided with oil prices stabilizing below $70 and global bond yields hitting a 2-year low.
    • Harris-Trump’s debate over the state of the economy and US-China relations had an insignificant impact on the markets. Harris saw her odds of winning the election rise on PredictIt from 53% to 56% following the debate.
    • BOJ policy member Junko Nakagawa hinted at the possibility of further interest rate hikes, boosting Yen to December’s highs. While many economists predict the BOJ will wait until later this year or early next year to raise rates, the next decision is scheduled for next week.
    • The CHF is at decades highs against USD, supporting speculation for an aggressive interest rate cut on September 26. Markets expect a 25bps cut, while the likelihood of a 50 bps cut has been increasing.
    • The UK economy unexpectedly stagnated in July. GDP has stagnated for two months now, suggesting that despite the robust survey numbers, Q3 GDP growth is likely to disappoint. With interest rates down and wage growth still robust, construction and consumption should get a boost, although this side of the budget there is still a lot of uncertainty that is likely to hold consumers and companies back. For the BoE it won’t be enough to prompt back to back cuts, but it will justify the controversial decision to lower rates last month.
    • CPI preview: The August CPI report will be the highlight, just in case there are any surprises that could tip the policy outlook. We expect gains of 0.2% for both headline and core after 0.2% increases for both in July. As-expected results would see the y/y headline sliding to 2.6% from 2.9% in July. Also, the core y/y gain should hold steady at 3.2% in July. Such results should not deter the FOMC from cutting rates.
    A higher inflation reading today could lead to increased volatility ,while a softer number might give the Fed more room to cut, but could also signal faster-than-expected economic slowdown.

    [​IMG]

    Financial Markets Performance:

    • The Yen surged to its strongest level against the US Dollar since December, recovering its yearly losses. It is currently at 141.40 after retesting the 140.696 level.
    • The USDCHF drifted further to a 13 year bottom, with CHF and JPY buoyed by faltering carry trades funded through low-interest currencies and increased demand for safe-haven assets. EURCHF remains below its 2015 bottom.
    • Bitcoin dipped to $56k again due to Trump’s support for the cryptocurrency sector.
    • Oil extended the month’s downleg to 65.34, dropping by nearly 20% this quarter, as worries about slowing growth in the US and China dampen demand.
    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  6. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date: 12th September 2024.

    Market Update – Eyes on ECB!

    [​IMG]
    US inflation data supported bets for a rate cut from the Fed next week, but also argued for gradual moves.

    Asia & European Sessions:
    • Selling initially drove the moves on Wall Street and Treasuries as the pick up in the monthly US CPI core rate weighed on aggressive Fed rate cut bets, and basically confirmed a -25 bp reduction next week. However global equities turned around and dip buyers provided support with the major indexes bouncing off of support.
    • European stock markets are broadly higher in catch up trade, after Wall Street turned optimistic yesterday and the tech rally extended through Asian hours. Japanese markets, which were hit by a rally in the yen earlier in the week, bounced back and the Nikkei closed 3.4% higher. DAX and FTSE100 are currently up 1.2% as markets wait for the ECB to deliver the widely expected 25 bp rate cut.
    • Tech stocks like Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia drove Wall Street’s gains, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher.
    • ECB Preview: Comments from officials have left little doubt that rates will be cut by 25 bp once again at tomorrow’s meeting. It is likely to be another “cautious cut”, however, that doesn’t commit to additional moves. Growth indicators may have come in lower than hoped, and headline inflation dropped sharply. Underlying inflation, though, remains high and that means Lagarde is likely to stick with a data-dependent approach. We expect further cuts, but for now only at meetings with updated staff projections. A 25 bp cut would leave the deposit rate at 3.50% and the main refinancing rate at 4.00%. However, the ECB announced earlier in the year that it intends to lower the spread between the deposit rate and the main refinancing rate to 15 bp from currently 25 bp. That will come into effect on September 18, together with the changes announced tomorrow. That will leave the main refinancing rate at 3.65%, the marginal lending rate at 3.90%.
    Financial Markets Performance:
    • The USDIndex is at 101.796 and USDJPY has lifted to 142.66 amid a wider correction in the Yen.
    • Oil rebounded 2.19% to $67.80 per barrel due to Hurricane Francine affecting Gulf of Mexico production.
    • Gold dipped -0.15% to $2512.89 per ounce after rising to a session high of $2528.98 per ounce.
    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  7. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date: 13th September 2024.

    Market Update – Gold reached new record high; USD plummets; Oil 2% higher.

    [​IMG]Trading Leveraged Products is risky
    Asia & European Sessions:

    • Trading remained choppy as the markets continued to assess data and Fed rate cut risks amid uncertainties over the economy.
    • US data points released on Thursday were in line with a 25 bps cut from the FOMC next week, with Chair Powell likely to again stress the path remains data dependent. The increase in unemployment claims and a slight rise in August’s producer price index left room for the Fed to consider more aggressive cuts. However, the components relevant to the Fed’s preferred inflation measure remained subdued.
    • The ECB cut rates -25 bps as widely expected. While the general expectation is for another -25 bp easing to help sustain a soft landing, there is still an undercurrent for a -50 bp cut next week.
    • A WSJ article noting that Fed policymakers are debating -25 bps versus -50 bps helped give Treasuries a boost late in the day after hotter than expected PPI weighed early on. A small rise in jobless claims also provided some support.
    • Gold reached a record high, about 25% up this year, driven by the Fed’s moves towards monetary easing. Investors also scaled back expectations of another ECB rate cut next month, after the ECB lowered rates on Thursday. Additionally, central bank purchases, heightened demand for safe-haven assets due to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, and growing interest from retail investors have fueled the metal’s rally.
    [​IMG]

    Financial Markets Performance:

    • The USDIndex dropped to 100.64 and is weaker against its G10 peers, with the exception of CHF and CAD.
    • Yen retested once again December’s highs, at 140.63 level.
    • Wall Street rallied after a mixed start, with the NASDAQ advancing another 1%, while the S&P500 was up 0.75%, and the Dow was 0.58% higher.
    • Gold prices marked new record highs to $2570 per ounce as shorts cover.
    • Crude oil prices are up 1.05% at $68.68 per barrel due to dollar weakness, risk -on tone and disruption in crude production. Hurricane Francine’s landfall in southern Louisiana on Wednesday led to the shutdown of offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and disrupted refinery operations. The overall bearish tone remains intact, though, and the IEA’s monthly report only added to fears that a slowdown in demand will lead to a supply overhang and continue to weigh on prices.
    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  8. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date: 16th September 2024.

    Gold and Yen Surge as Safe Haven Demand Increases.

    [​IMG]

    • Former US President Trump survives another assassination attempt.
    • The Japanese Yen remains the best performing currency of the month adding 4.85%. Demand for safe Haven assets such as the Yen and Gold rise.
    • Gold continues to increase as global banks downgrade China’s growth forecasts due to poor economic data. Gold rose to an all-time high on Monday.
    • Economists advise the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 0.25% at this week’s meeting.
    USDJPY – The Exchange Rate Declines For 5 Consecutive Days

    The US Dollar index trades 0.24% lower and the Japanese Yen Index 0.47% higher during this morning’s Asian session. The exchange rate is currently trading at its lowest point since July 2023 and has fallen for 5 consecutive days. However, investors should also note that the exchange rate is known to see a change in volatility as the European session opens at 07:00 GMT.

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    Copy-of-TELEGRAM-25-1024x577.png

    HFM · Sep 16, 2024 at 6:46 PM

    " style="box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; max-width: 100%; cursor: pointer;">[​IMG]XAUUSD (Gold) on a 2-Hour Chart With Fibonacci Retracement Levels.

    In terms of technical analysis, Gold is trading above the trend-line including the 75-Period EMA and 100-Period SMA. The asset is also trading higher than the Volume-weighted average price and above the 50.00 level on the RSI. For this reason, indications point towards buyer holding control and the likelihood of a continued upward trend to remain. Though investors should note that in a short period of time, Gold has risen more than 3.00% which could prompt investors to quickly cash in earned profits.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Michalis Efthymiou
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  9. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date: 17th September 2024.

    US Market Awaits Fed: Will a 0.25% Cut Cause a Drop?

    [​IMG]
    • European indices including the Euro Stoxx 50 and the DAX continue to trade higher.
    • The European Central Bank’s latest cut continues to benefit European stocks.
    • US Stocks “mixed” with the Dow Jones rising 0.55%, the SNP500 0.14% ending the day 0.47% lower.
    • The Dow Jones was the best performing US index, largely driven upwards by the performance of Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Visa stocks.
    Dow Jones Leads, Outshining NASDAQ and S&P 500!

    On Monday, 84% of the Dow Jones’ stocks rose in value with Intel, Cisco Systems and Travelers Cos being the best performing. The index also rose to its highest ever value, so far adding 10.36% this year. Why is the Dow Jones performing better than the NASDAQ and the SNP500?

    [​IMG]

    The stock market in general is known to benefit from interest rate reductions which will take place tomorrow evening. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 67% chance of the Fed increasing 50 basis points, not 25. However, most economists believe the central bank will opt for 3 consecutive 25 basis point cuts for the rest of the year. For this reason, there is a risk of misjudging the Fed, the monetary policy and how to price the stock market. As a result, investors are turning to the Dow Jones which is exposed to fewer stocks, witnessing higher exposure to the banking sector and to defensive stocks such as Procter and Gamble. On Monday, Procter and Gamble rose 1.82%.

    According to experts, if the Federal Reserve does adjust the Federal Fund Rate by 0.50%, all indices are likely to increase in value. Whereas, if the Fed cuts only 0.25%, investors will want to be exposed to a more balanced index such as the Dow Jones. Investors will want to be prepared and plan for volatility in both directions.

    When monitoring the VIX and Bond Yields, certain signals are indicating some short-term weakness. The VIX is currently trading almost 1.00% higher and bond yields have added 0.005%. This does not necessarily indicate a decline but possibly some weakness before the upcoming interest rate decision. However, if the VIX declines and yields do not rise further, the Dow may again witness positive price movements.

    Technical analysis currently signals that buyers are controlling the market with the Dow Jones trading above the trend-line, price sentiment line and above the VWAP. The 75-period EMA and 100-Period SMA have also crossed upwards on the 2-hour chart. The only concern for investors is that the price has risen for 4 consecutive days potentially triggering a more cautious view.

    Lastly, the performance of the Dow Jones within the US session will depend on today’s Retail Sales release. The US Retail Sales is likely to decline 0.2% after rising 1.00% in the previous month. Analysts expect Core Retail Sales to read 0.2%. A higher Retail Sales figure is likely to support the stock market in the short-term.

    DAX on the Rise: Can the Momentum Keep Going?

    The German DAX has risen for 4 consecutive days as has the Dow Jones. However, the price has fallen as the EU Cash Open edges nearer (0.10%). The index is not trading at an all-time high but is trading at an area where the index has previously found resistance on two occasions.

    [​IMG]

    The European Central Bank’s decision to cut interest rates more than what analysts were previously expecting supports the index. The monetary policy adjustment also stopped the downward trend seen so far this month. The question is now whether the DAX will continue to rise accordingly. According to economists, three factors will be necessary for continued growth; for both the ECB and Fed to continue cutting rates in 2024, positive EU data and positive earnings data.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Michalis Efthymiou
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  10. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date: 18th September 2024.

    What Does Tonight’s Fed Rate Cut Mean For Gold and the Yen?

    [​IMG]
    • The UK’s inflation remains at 2.2% as per previous expectations. The Pound remains slightly weaker on Wednesday.
    • Gold retraces as traders increase the possibility of a 0.25% rate cut after yesterday’s Retail Sales.
    • Gold positions break the previous annual record of 242.314K indicating the high demand. JP Morgan advises the largest risk to the global economy remains the tensions within the Middle-East and this can also impact Gold.
    • US Retail Sales unexpectedly rose 0.1%, higher than the previous expectation of -0.2%.
    XAUUSD – Gold Retraces As Economists Stick To Their 0.25% Rate Cut Prediction!

    The price of Gold on Tuesday fell 0.50% moving back to the trend-line (75-Period EMA) and then retraced upwards overnight. However, the price is now actively declining as we approach the opening of the European Cash Open. Previously the price of Gold significantly rose due to the expectations of the Federal Reserve adjusting interest rates. However, the pricing changes depending on a 0.25% and 0.50% interest rate cut. According to experts, 0.25% could apply some short-term pressure on Gold unless the Fed also adds dovish comments for the upcoming months.

    The reason why a 0.25% cut could potentially be negative is because investors have partially priced Gold based on a 0.50% cut, not 0.25%. Therefore, the price movement is largely dependent on tonight’s Federal Reserve rate decision and press conference. During the press conference, investors will be expecting guidance from the chairman, Mr Powell, regarding potential future rate cuts. According to Bloomberg, traders have significantly increased the likelihood of a 0.50% rate cut. However, Bloomberg surveyed 115 US economists, of which 104 advised the Fed would opt for 0.25%.

    Leading trading platforms confirm the surge of new investors in gold. According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, long positions in contracts have reached 246.214K, surpassing the previous annual record of 242.314K. Seller positions in this category remain low, totaling just 19.505K transactions. A similar trend is seen at the CME Group, where the average daily trading volume for gold contracts over the past week was 376.2K, far exceeding August’s average of 134.0K.

    [​IMG]

    In terms of technical analysis, the medium-term picture remains neutral. This is due to the RSI trading at the neutral level, and the price trading above the trend-line and the 100-Period SMA, but retracing downwards. Therefore, the overall scenario remains neutral. However, if the price rises above $2,576.00, buy signals are likely to strengthen.

    GBPJPY – UK Inflation Holds at 2.2%, Yen Struggles to Gain Momentum Outside Asia!

    The price of the GBPJPY trades considerably lower on Wednesday due to the higher value of the Japanese Yen. So far the Japanese Yen is the day’s best performing index and was trading 0.32% higher against the currency market. However, technical analysts have noted that the Yen’s performance becomes poorer within the European session. As the European session edges closer the Japanese Yen Index has fallen 0.06%. The price movement of the Japanese Yen will largely depend on the Fed’s rate decision due to recent correlations.

    [​IMG]

    The Great British Pound Index trades 0.06% lower but is slightly improving since the release of the latest UK inflation date. The UK’s inflation remains at 2.2% as per previous expectations. The Bank of England’s rate decision and press conference will take place tomorrow. Analysts advise the BoE is likely to keep interest rates at 5.00% which is positive for the British Pound.

    According to Bloomberg, if the Fed opts to cut interest rates by 0.50%, the Bank of Japan may choose not to increase interest rates again this year. Economists added that the Bank of Japan would prefer for the Yen to gradually decline back to 135.00. Therefore, a 0.50% rate cut could turn negative for the GBPJPY, however, the price movement would need to confirm this.

    The GBPJPY is trading at the 55.00 level on the RSI, above the 75-Period EMA and 100-Period SMA. On the 5-Minute chart, the GBPJPY is also close to crossing above the 250-Period SMA. Therefore, most indicators are indicating upward price movement. Nonetheless, this will depend largely on the upcoming monetary policy developments.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Michalis Efthymiou
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     

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