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Date : 29th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th May 2017.

FX News Today

Despite a lot of zigs and zags in global equities in recent weeks, the markets are solidly in the green for May, as well as over the last six months. Supporting the gains have been real improvement in most key economies, and hopes for accelerating growth over 2H. Curiously, most longer dated sovereign bonds have rallied too, supported in part by ongoing central bank accommodation and now safe haven and month-end flows.

United States: The U.S. calendar reboots on Tuesday after the long Memorial Day weekend with a variety of data on tap and all roads leading to the May payrolls report, which could have a profound impact on the Fed’s immediate outlook for another “gradual” rate hike in June that has been largely (80%) priced in. April nonfarm payrolls (Friday) are expected to increase by 182k, with a 98k private payroll gain, which would keep the policy trajectory on track. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady from 4.4% last month and the workweek is expected to hold at 34.4 for a third month. Initial claims should average 243k in April from 251k in March. Ahead of the payrolls release April personal income (Tuesday) is forecast to rise 0.4%, while spending is seen up 0.6% and core PCE prices are set to rise just 0.2%. MBA mortgage market report (Wednesday) will be accompanied by May Chicago PMI, seen slipping to 57.5 from 58.3, along with April NAR pending home sales steady at 111.4. Data really gets crammed (Thursday) after the holiday break, as the ADP employment survey is set to rise 190k in May from 177k. Also on tap (Thursday) are no less than productivity, initial jobless claims, construction spending, ISM, auto sales and EIA energy inventories. The week rounds out with the full trade report (Friday) after the payrolls report.

Canada: Canada’s economic calendar is packed with data this week. The Q1 GDP and March GDP reports (both Wednesday) highlight, while April trade (Friday) will also be on considerable interest. The trade balance (Friday) is seen improving to a C$0.1 bln surplus from the -C$0.1 bln deficit in March. Labor productivity (Friday) is expected to expand 1.1% in Q1 (q/q, sa) after the 0.4% gain in Q4. The IPPI (Tuesday) is projected to surge 1.0% m/m in April following the 0.8% rise in March. The current account deficit (Tuesday) is anticipated to worsen to -C$11.5 bln in Q1 from -C$10.7 bln in Q4. The May Markit manufacturing PMI is due Thursday. Dealer reported vehicle sales are anticipated Thursday or Friday. There is nothing from the Bank of Canada this week, with the next event the release of the Financial System Review on June 8th.

Europe: The battles for direction at the ECB seem to be in full swing even ahead of the June 8 council meeting and after Coeure suggested that gradualism is falling out of favor even at the Executive Board. The heavy weights Draghi and Praet hit back last week, stressing that inflation is still not on a sustainable path toward the target. So, this month’s solid round of confidence data, which will be rounded off by the ESI sentiment indicator on Tuesday, may confirm that the recovery continues to strengthen and broaden. A slight improvement in the ESI is expected, which would leave the May round of confidence data again confirming that growth continues to strengthen. PMIs also suggest that the companies are taking on more staff and with German Ifo readings jumping higher this month, the German jobless number expected to decline a further -15K, in May which would leave the jobless rate at the record low of 5.8%. The April Eurozone unemployment rate meanwhile is seen falling to 9.4%. Eurozone inflation numbers are expected to fall back in May, after the Easter fueled jump in April. A German headline rate (Tuesday) of 1.7% y/y down from 2.0% y/y in the previous month, while overall Eurozone HICP (Wednesday) is seen falling to 1.5% y/y from 1.9% y/y, arguably below the ECB’s definition of price stability as below but close to 2%. Data releases also include Eurozone M3, German retail sales and French consumer confidence, Italian HICP, as well as German import price inflation and French and Eurozone PPI readings.

UK: London markets are closed today for a UK public holiday. The calendar thereafter brings April lending data from the BoE (Wednesday) and the first two of the three PMI surveys for May, with manufacturing (Thursday) and construction (Friday), which are due ahead of the services report (due out the following Monday). The lending data has us expecting a GBP 1.5 bln tally for net consumer credit, which would be near underlying trend.

Japan: In Japan, things kick off on Tuesday with April unemployment, where the jobless rate is seen steady at 2.8%. The job offers/seekers ratio likely held steady at 1.45. April personal income and PCE are due Tuesday. April retail sales (Tuesday) should be flat versus -0.8% y/y for large retailers, and slow modestly to a 2.0% y/y clip from up 2.1% overall. April industrial production (Wednesday) is penciled in accelerating to a 3.0% y/y rate from 1.9% previously. April housing starts and construction orders are also due Wednesday, with the former seen dropping to a 1.0% y/y pace of contraction from the previous 0.2% rate. The May Nikkei/Markit manufacturing PMI (Thursday) is expected steady at 52.7. April auto sales are due Thursday.

Australia: Australia’s calendar features private capital expenditures (Thursday), expected to rebound 1.0% in Q1 (q/q, sa) after the 2.1% tumble in Q4. Retail sales (Thursday) are seen recovering 0.1% m/m in April after the 0.1% dip in March. Building approvals (Tuesday) are projected to bounce 5.0% m/m in April after the 13.4% plunge in March. The Reserve Bank of Australia is silent this week. The next event is the Reserve Bank Board Meeting on June 6.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has April building permits (Tuesday) and the Q1 terms of trade (Thursday). But the main event this week is the release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Financial Stability Report.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.



Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 30th May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th May 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stocks didn’t manage to make much headway. Hong Kong was on holiday and Chinese markets remained shut for a second day. Japan’s indices moved sideways swinging between gains and losses and the ASX is currently up a modest 0.33%. A stronger Yen weighed on Japanese markets and comments from ECB President Draghi yesterday that the Eurozone economy still needs substantial monetary support may have been designed to dampen tapering speculation, but also seem to have rekindled growth concerns especially as talk of early elections in Italy sparked a fresh wave of risk aversion and political concerns. Italian bond and stock markets underperformed, EMU spreads widened and the EUR remains under pressure as U.K. and U.S. return from their holidays and the data calendar heats up. Ahead of the June council meeting today’s Eurozone ESI confidence reading and the preliminary German HICP number will be watched very carefully. The busy calendar also has French consumption and final Q1 GDP, as well as Spanish inflation and Swedish GDP.

Draghi: Economy still needs extraordinary ECB support. Draghi said the ECB “remains firmly convinced that an extraordinary amount of monetary policy support, including through our forward guidance, is still necessary”. Speaking at his hearing before the European Parliament, Draghi said domestic cost pressures, notably from wages, are still insufficient to support a durable and self-sustaining convergence of inflation toward our medium-term objective”. More indications then that the ECB heavy weights are pushing back against a too drastic change of the forward guidance at the June policy meeting.

ECB’s Weidmann: Exit Debate legitimate given price outlook. The Bundesbank President said late yesterday that “in light of subdued price pressures, an expansionary monetary policy continues to be appropriate in principle”, but added that “given the continued economic recovery and a – by all forecasts predicted – inflation rate of just below 2 percent in the year 2019, it is indeed legitimate to ask when the ECB council should consider a monetary policy normalization”. Weidmann admitted that inflation will slow in the second half of the year as base effects from energy prices fall out of the equation and that despite stronger growth “price stability beyond traditionally very volatile energy costs are still quite muted”.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone ESI – Eurozone Economic Confidence is expected to rise slightly to 110.1 in May from 109.6. Preliminary consumer confidence came in better than expected, while EMU PMIs moved sideways at very high levels, and against that background a slight improvement in the ESI is expected, which would leave the May round of confidence data again confirming that growth continues to strengthen.

German May HICP – Eurozone inflation numbers are expected to fall back in May, after the Easter fueled jump in April. The German headline rate expected at 1.6% y/y down from 2.0% y/y in the previous month.

US Data – April personal income is forecast to rise 0.4%, while spending is seen up 0.6% and core PCE prices are set to rise just 0.2%. S&P Case-Shiller home prices are expected to rise 0.5% in March and May consumer confidence is projected to hold at an elevated 120.1 vs 120.30 in April.

Canada Current Account – The current account deficit, is expected to widen to -C$11.5 bln in Q1 from -C$10.7 bln in Q4.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Visit Website to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 31st May 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st May 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed. Chinese stocks initially moved higher after returning from holiday and following better than expected PMI readings, which showed steady expansion in the manufacturing sector and improvement in non-manufacturing. But Hang Seng and CSI 300 are now marginally in the red and the Nikkei is down -0.27%, while the ASX is clinging on to a marginal gain. Not much enthusiasm amid investors then in Asia, although FTSE 100 and U.S. futures are moving higher. Sterling remains under pressure as the election gets nearer and May’s lead in the polls declines, but that is supporting the FTSE 100, which is dominated by large multinationals. Better than expected consumer confidence data overnight, also adds support. And so far the weaker Pound hasn’t hurt Gilts, which outperformed again yesterday. In the Eurozone, yesterday’s source story suggesting that the ECB will up its growth assessment in June helped to counterbalance Draghi’s dovish comments from Monday, which had rekindled concerns about the health of the economy, and that helped Bund futures to come back from lows and spreads to come in and today’s expected decline in the Eurozone HICP reading to just 1.4% will add further support. The data calendar also has French and Italian inflation numbers, as well as German retail sales and labour market data.

FX Update: Sterling took a 0.5% clobber on a UK election poll form YouGov suggesting that the support for the Tory party had fallen again, to the point that the governing party would loose its majority at the June-8 election and leave Britain with a hung parliament (with the Tories at 310 seats, down from the 330 seats it presently has and below the 326 level needed for a majority, and versus 257 seats for Labour). The poll does contrast other surveys pointing to the Conservatives wining, though will likely see sterling continue to underperform into the election. Cable logged a 1.2787 low, bringing last week’s near six-week low at 1.2774 back into scope. Elsewhere, the narrow USD index is showing a modest gain on the day after falling yesterday following a mixed-bag of U.S. data. EURUSD lifted above 1.1100 during the Asia session before settling in the upper 1.10s, up on yesterday’s 13-day low at 1.1066. USDJPY popped back above 111.0 during Tokyo trade, extending the rebound from yesterday’s 13-day low at 110.66. Japanese industrial production rose 4% m/m in the preliminary estimate for April, up form the 1.9% m/m decline in March but below the Reuters median forecast for a 4.3% growth outcome.

U.S. reports: revealed a firm April round of personal income figures with a strong trajectory of consumption into Q2, though the report also incorporated big downward Q2-Q3 income revisions seen in Friday’s GDP report. We saw a May consumer confidence drop to a still-robust 117.9 from 119.4 in April and a 16-year high of 124.9 in March, leaving confidence above prior readings of 116.1 in February and 111.6 in January. The Dallas Fed index rose 17.2 from 16.8 in April, versus an 11-year high of 24.5 in February, while the ISM-adjusted Dallas Fed rose more sharply to a 2-year high of 55.4 from 53.8 in April, with a 6-year high of 15.7 for the workweek.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone HICP – The Eurozone number is expected to fall to 1.5% y/y from 1.9% y/y in April. If this is confirmed this would be once again firmly below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability and thus give Draghi and Praet, who remain cautious with regard to any changes in the forward guidance something to argue with at the June meeting. Growth may be stabilising and strengthening, but the inflation trajectory still looks subdued, especially as oil price forecasts on which the March ECB staff projections were based, turned out to be too high.

Canada Q1 GDP – Q1 GDP expected to accelerate to a 3.9% pace (q/q, saar) from the 2.6% growth rate in Q4. The expected gain would be close to the BoC’s estimate of 3.8% but well short of the 4.5% pace implied by the monthly GDP series.

US Chicago PMI and Pending Homes – May Chicago PMI, seen slipping to 57.0 from 58.3, along with April NAR pending home sales at 0.3% rise from -0.8%.

Fedspeak & Fed’s Beige Book – Dallas Fed hawk Kaplan (voter) will speak on international economics at 12 GMT. Additionally, the Beige Book for the June 13-14 FOMC will be released and should retain the modest-to-moderate mantra with reference to growth, with all 12 Districts likely repeating gains

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Visit Website to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 1st June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly moved higher on the first day of June, led by Japanese stocks, which rallied amid a weaker Yen. Chinese stocks underperformed after China’s private manufacturing PMI disappointed, which revived concerns about the health of the Chinese economy. Yesterday’s official PMIs came in better than expected and investors are waiting for more data out of Europe and the U.S. to get a clearer picture of the outlook for the world economy. The CSI is marginally lower, but the Hang Seng is up 0.45%. U.S. and FTSE 100 futures are also posting gains. Most European markets closed in the red yesterday, after a mixed session, that saw the FTSE 100 reaching new record highs, before falling back again. The DAX managed to claw on to a 0.13% gain at the close, but mixed messages from ECB officials are unsettling investors and Eurozone spreads blew out again in late trade, as peripheral yields backed up. Gilt yields also jumped higher as Sterling remains under pressure ahead of the June 8 election. Already released Swiss GDP numbers came in weaker than expected at just 0.3% q/q and 1.1% y/y. The rest of the calendar focuses on manufacturing PMI readings.

US reports: U.S. Chicago PMI presented an increase to 59.4 in May from April’s 58.3. The number was originally reported as an unexpectedly large decline to 55.2 which was a real turn around and puts the index at its highest level since November 2014. U.S. pending home sales index dropped 1.3% to 109.8 in April following the 0.9% decline to 111.3 in March after jumping 5.5% in February to 112.3

BoC Outlook: Steady policy remains the base-case scenario, as the 3.7% gain in real Q1 GDP was a nearly perfect match to the BoC’s 3.8% estimate. However, despite the positive data, yesterday WTI crude fell to four-session lows of $48.30/bbl into the N.Y. open, with oversupply concerns remaining in place. Libya production has been the weight on oil today, which is not constrained by the OPEC/NOPEC output cut deal, and has recently upped its production to nearly 800k bpd, up from about 550k bpd in April, according to OPEC data. Increased Libya output, plus ever-increasing U.S. shale production, has offset a good bit of OPEC production cuts, weighing on oil prices.

Eurozone unemployment falls more than expected to 9.3% in April, while March was revised down to 9.4% from 9.5% reported initially. The number comes at the heel of a record low German jobless rate for May and ties in with PMI reports suggesting that companies continue to take on more staff. So the economy continues and growth is strengthen and clearly boosting the outlook for the labour market, but jobless rates remain very uneven across countries, youth unemployment remains far too high and most importantly for the ECB, wage growth on a Eurozone aggregate level remains quite low.

Main Macro Events Today

EU Manufacturing PMI – EMU manufacturing PMI expected to be unchanged, while in UK, a moderate correction in the PMI headlines is expected, forecasting 56.5 in the manufacturing survey following April’s 57.3 reading, and a 52.5 outcome in the construction PMI after 53.1 in the month prior. The manufacturing sector has been holding up solidly since the Brexit vote last June.

US Manufacturing PMI – The May ISM should post a rise to 54.7 from 54.8 in April and 57.2 in March. Despite some divergent headline swings in the early month reports the component data was firm which should pose some upside risk to the release.

Cad. Manufacturing PMI – The May Markit manufacturing PMI is due today.

US ADP, Jobless Claims & Oil Invent. – Claims data for the week of May 27 should reveal a 239k headline following 234k last week and 233k in the week prior. ADP employment survey is set to rise 185k in May from 177k. Oil inventories for last week expected to fall to -2.7M from the -4.4M barrels 2 weeks ago.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Visit Website Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 2nd June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, with Japan outperforming. The Nikkei 225 breached the 20000 mark for the first time since December 2015, amid a weaker yen and positive economic data including U.S. auto sales yesterday, which showed positive reports for Japan’s car makers. The background of positive corporate profits is attracting investors and helped to underpin the rebound since the low on April 14. Hang Seng and ASX 200 are moved higher after Europe and Wall Street closed with gains on Thursday, but the CSI underperformed and declined as the offshore Chinese yuan hit its highest level since October yesterday. Looking ahead U.S. and U.K. futures are extending gains this morning with investors looking to U.S. employment data, amid a pretty quiet calendar in Europe, which includes the U.K. Construction PMI as well as Eurozone Producer Prices. With risk appetite coming back and stock markets continuing to trend higher, core yields are likely to extend their move higher.

White House: President Trump will pull the U.S. out of the Paris climate accord. The administration was saying the agreement was a “bad deal” for all Americans as it front loaded costs. President Trump is keeping his campaign promise with this decision. Oil prices slumped to the $48.30 area from about $49.20 earlier. Also, Wall Street remained firm near the day’s highs with the Dow hovering in the 21,110 regions.

US reports: revealed firm May ISM and ADP readings of 54.9 and 253k respectively, with an ISM jobs index rise to 53.5 from 52.0, that added upside risk to our 195k May payroll estimate. The Initial claims bounce to 248k that still left a lean 238k May average. There were some disappointing April construction spending figures as the sector gave back some of its winter weather-boost, and though the Q1 figures were revised higher on net, most of the boost was in the home improvement component that doesn’t directly enter GDP. We more importantly saw downward nonresidential construction revisions that weakened the path for that sector. Early May vehicle sales data are showing a tiny uptick to a 16.9 mln clip from rates of 16.8 mln in April and 16.5 mln in March, leaving a likely 0.1% May retail sales drop with a 0.2% ex-auto auto decline, thanks to an estimated 7% May slide in gasoline prices and likely restraint in sales of building materials.

ECB Focus Remains on Inflation Not Growth. Despite the confusion over Draghi’s dovish comments at the start of the week, central bankers seem to agree that the recovery is looking increasingly strong and balanced. But while the ECB is likely to up its assessment on the growth outlook at next week’s meeting, headline inflation fell back to just 1.4% this month and updated set of inflation projections could likely to be scaled back, as oil prices are lower than anticipated in March and the EUR stronger.

Main Macro Events Today

U.S. NFP, Trade Deficit, Unemployment Rate – The April trade data is out today and we expect to see a 7.5% expansion in the deficit to -$46.1 bln from -$43.7 bln in March and -$43.8 bln in February. Also, May employment data is should post a 185k headline from 211k in April and 79k in March. The unemployment rate should hold steady at 4.4% for a second month, down from 4.5% in March.

Canada Productivity – The trade balance is seen improving to a C$0.1 bln surplus from the -C$0.1 bln deficit in March. Exports are seen rising 1.0% in April after the 3.8% surge in March. Imports are expected to rise just 0.5% m/m in April after the 1.7% gain in March. Labor productivity is expected to expand 0.2% in Q1 (q/q, sa) after the 0.4% gain in Q4.

UK PMI Construction – The construction PMI expected to fall at 52.7 from 53.1 last month.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Visit Website Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 5th June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th June 2017.

FX News Today

United States: The May U.S. nonfarm payroll report and its modest 138k rise in jobs, along with the 66k downward revision to March and April, and the 147k gain in private payrolls, disappointed expectations for much stronger increase, especially on the heels of the robust 253k surge from the ADP survey. Nevertheless, the Dow rallied 0.3% to climb to a fresh record high of 21,206. This week’s calendar is slim and the few reports won’t impact market outlooks or views of the FOMC. The ISM nonmanufacturing index for May (Monday) will highlight the week. It’s forecast dipping to 56.5 after rising 2.3 points to 57.5 in April (which was the highest since October 2015). Revised Q1 productivity (Monday) is expected to improve to a 0.1% pace of growth from the initial 0.6% contraction rate. Labor costs are seen revised to a slower 2.3% pace from 3.0%. April factory orders (Monday) are expected to be unchanged from the revised 0.9% gain previously. The Fed’s LMCI is also due (Monday). April JOLTS (Tuesday), a favorite of Chair Yellen, will nevertheless be overlooked as the report is two months in arrears, and Friday’s jobs report told us all we need to know for now. Other data this week includes April consumer credit (Wednesday), weekly jobless claims (Thursday) and April wholesale trade (Friday).

Canada: The employment report (Friday) is the main event this week. We expect a 20.0k gain in new jobs during May following the 3.2k rise in April, as the solidly expanding Canadian economy continues to create jobs. The unemployment rate is seen rising to 6.6% in May from 6.5% in April, as the participation rate rebounds following the tumble to 65.6 in April from 65.9 in March. The capacity utilization rate (Friday) is seen jumping to 83.7% in Q1 from 82.2% in Q4, as Canada’s rapid 3.7% Q1 real GDP growth rate brought previously unused capacity back into play. May housing starts (Thursday) are expected to moderate to a 200.0k pace from 213.1k in April, as activity further unwinds from the lofty 252.3k rate in March.

Europe: The week starts with a holiday in Germany (Monday), which will leave European markets somewhat quieter than usual, though trading could thin ahead of the ECB meeting and U.K. election (both Thursday), and after the weekend terror incidents in London on Saturday. After the sharp deceleration in headline inflation in May, which backed the ECB’s steady stance, this week’s final composite PMI and Q1 GDP will give the hawks something to argue with. The services PMI reading (Monday) is expected to be confirmed at 56.8 and the composite at 56.2, both suggesting ongoing robust expansion with Markit also reporting a pick-up in job creation and rising underlying price pressures. At the same time final Q1 GDP data for the Eurozone is likely to bring an upward revision to the quarterly growth rate to 0.6% q/q (median same) from 0.5% q/q, after strong revisions to French and especially Italian and Greek numbers. Other real rate in the form of German production (Thursday) and orders (Wednesday) numbers should be mixed, with the Easter effect still having some impact.

UK: It’s general election week, with the country heading to the polls on Thursday. The incumbent Conservative looks likely to win, though by a much smaller majority that was looking to be the case just a couple of weeks ago. The weekend terror attacks could sway voters more conservatively, however. A U.K. poll from Ipsos Mori (Friday) showed the Conservatives’ margin falling to just 5 percentage points over the Labor Party. Respective support stood at 45% and 40%, with Labor up 6%. The narrowing of the Conservative Party’s lead over the last couple of weeks has been nothing short of dramatic, with many pundits blaming a poor campaign performance by PM May (who refused, amid widespread condemnation, to take part in a TV debate last week, and then made a gaffe on health care proposals). The Conservative’s lead had been 20 points at the time that prime minister called the election in April. The FT’s poll of polls still has the Conservatives with 44% support versus 35% for Labor. The currency will be the vulnerable link in sterling markets to a weak Conservative victory outcome, or a hung parliament. The calendar features the May services PMI survey (Monday), which will be a big focus following above-forecast outcomes in the PMI surveys for the construction and manufacturing sectors, and with the big services sector (which accounts for nearly 80% of GDP in the UK) having driven Q1 GDP to just 0.2% q/q growth after 0.7% q/q growth in the previous quarter.

China: The May trade report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a $45.0 bln surplus versus $38.1 bln in April. May CPI and PPI (Friday), are penciled in at 1.4% y/y from 1.2%, and 5.5% y/y from 6.4%, respectively. Japan revised Q1 GDP (Thursday) is likely to be revised slightly higher given the stronger than expected capex. April current account and May bank lending are also on tap (Thursday)

Japan: Revised Q1 GDP (Thursday) is likely to be revised slightly higher given the stronger than expected capex. April current account and May bank lending are also on tap (Thursday), with the latter having held at 3.0% y/y over the past couple of months. The April tertiary index (Friday) has been little changed to weaker over the past twelve months.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting (Tuesday), expected to reveal no change in the current 1.50% rate setting. The economic data docket is busy this week. Q1 GDP (Wednesday) is seen rising just 0.2% (q/q, sa) after the 1.1% gain in Q4. The current account deficit (Tuesday) is seen narrowing to -A$1.0 bln in Q1 from -A$3.9 bln in Q4. The trade surplus (Thursday) is projected to narrow to A$2.0 bln in April from A$3.1 bln in March Housing finance (Friday) is anticipated to rise 0.5% m/m in April after the 0.5% dip in March.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Visit Website Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 6th June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly posting losses. Japanese stocks dropped as the Yen surged to the highest level in more than a month, but it was Australia’s ASX that posted the sharpest losses, as the RBA left rates on hold as expected and highlighted that “slow growth in real wages” is weighing on consumption. Hang Seng and CSI 300 managed to move higher, underpinned by developers. U.S. and U.K. stock futures, however, are also heading south. After a long run, higher equity markets are turning cautious amid lingering concerns over the global growth outlook and ahead of key monetary policy decisions in Europe and the U.S. as well as the U.K. election on Thursday, with the latter looking tighter than expected. Oil extended declines as traders shrugged off the impact of Qatar’s isolation. The front end WTI future is currently trading at USD 47.12 per barrel.

US reports: revealed a firm round of May ISM-NMI figures, while March U.S. factory goods data fell slightly short of assumptions in April after small upward March revisions across factory orders, shipments and inventories to leave a neutral report. The April data for factory orders, shipments, and inventories were a tad light, and though the expected Q1 productivity boost to a flat figure from a 0.6% decline, there was also a huge downwards Q4 revisions in hourly compensation and unit labor costs that were a bit bigger than expected after the last income report. For the ISM-NMI, the headline slipped to a still-firm 56.9 in May from 57.5, while the ISM-adjusted ISM-NMI fell slightly to 56.3 from an 18-month high of 56.5.

Eurozone May composite PMI confirmed at 56.8, as expected, with the services reading revised up slightly to 56.3 from 56.2 reported initially. The services PMI still fell back slightly in April, but the composite held steady not just versus the preliminary number but also April. Readings suggest a consolidation of overall growth at high levels, with growth continuing to run at the fastest pace in six years and supported by strong growth of incoming new business, which will add to the arguments of the hawks at the ECB on Thursday. Germany and France were the main driver, with German growth underpinned by a robust manufacturing sector and French growth driven by the services sector. Both countries also reported stronger rates of overall job creation, which is encouraging, and suggests companies continue to invest in the recovery.

UK Election: Conservatives lead at 11 points according to the latest survey by ICM, with support for the Conservative Party’s at 45% versus 34% for the Labour Party. The survey was conducted between Friday and Sunday, with some of the response coming after the terrorist attack on Saturday night in London. The outcome is down 12 point lead that the previous ICM poll showed, though is well up on the poll by Survation that showed the Conservatives with only a 6 point advantage over Labour, and is more consistent with the FT’s poll tracker, which shows the Conservatives at 44% versus Labour’s 36%.

Main Macro Events Today

US JOLTS – April JOLTS, a favorite of Chair Yellen, will nevertheless be overlooked as the report is two months in arrears. April JOLTS, expected at 5.650M from 5.743M reported for March.

Canadian Ivey PMI – The Ivey PMI is expected to improve to a seasonally adjusted 62.0 in May from 62.4 in April.

NZD GDT – New Zealand’s Q1 manufacturing report may be of some interest today, which expected to present a 0.3% rise from 0.8% presented last time.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Visit Website to READ more Market news.[/URL]


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 7th June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly posting modest gains. Japanese indices managed to recover losses as the Yen dipped. Mainland Chinese markets outperformed and rallied led by consumer shares. After underperforming recently amid government efforts to boost deleveraging, it seems there is some value buying in the CSI 300, which is up 1.22%, while the Hang Seng is up a mere 0.01% and ASX and Nikkei around 0.20%. U.K. and U.S. futures are also higher and the move back into stocks could see yields coming up from yesterday’s lows. However, investors are likely to remain cautious and take a wait and see stance ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting, U.K. election and Comey testimony in the U.S. Today’s calendar will start U.K. house price data and Italian retail sales as well as the OECD’s economic outlook for the Eurozone.

FX Update: The dollar found its feet against most currencies, firming up modestly from recent lows. USDJPY settled around 109.50 in Tokyo after logging a six-week high at 109.22 yesterday, which was the culmination of a three-session tumble from the upper 111.0s. EURUSD ebbed to around 1.1260-65. AUDUSD was an exception to the dollar-finding-a-footing story, as the Aussie buck rallied on the release of the Australian Q1 GDP report, which came in with 0.3% q/q growth, well off the 1.1% q/q growth seen in the previous quarter and matching economists’ median expectation, although there had been some market fears of a negative print (following weak retail sales and capex data over the quarter). The Australian economy hasn’t seen a recession in 103 quarters now (just one quarter shy of 26 years), which apparently matches the Netherland’s growth run (according to Reuters). AUDUSD gained 0.5% in making a 0.7543 peak, which is the loftiest level seen since May 2.

German April manufacturing orders clumped -2.1% m/m, more than anticipated and driven mainly by a -3.4% m/m drop in export orders. After two very strong months, the correction, still saw the annual rate jumping to 3.3% y/y from 2.4% y/y. So again something for both the doves and the hawks at the ECB to argue with, especially as confidence data for May already suggest a rebound ahead.

US Reports: U.S. JOLTS 259k up to 6,044k in April, a new record high, after rising 103k to 5,785k in March. The job opening rate rose to 4.0% from 3.8%. Openings are up 401k from a year ago. However, hirings dropped 253k to 5,051k following a 55k gain to 5,304k. The rate slid to 3.5% from 3.6%. That could be a function of a lack of skilled labor. Meanwhile, separations declined 225k to 4,973k after bouncing 190k to 5,198k previously. The rate dropped to 3.4% from 3.6%. Also, quitters declined 111kk to 3,027k after rebounding 102k to 3,138k. The rate also dipped to 2.1% from 2.2% (revised from 2.1%). The mix of data support notions of a strong labor market.

Main Macro Events Today

UK House Prices – May’s Halifax bank of Scotland will be released today the change in house prices, which is expected to be unchanged quarterly and monthly as well.

US Consumer Credit – April consumer credit is expected to increase $17.0 bln after an $16.4 bln gain in March. Increases in non-revolving credit are leading the largest series of gains since 2001. Market risk is minimal, as consumer credit data is typically ignored by the market.

Oil Inventories – Oil inventories from US will be out today as well and expected to reduce to -3.4M from -6.4M last week.

Canadian Building Permits – Building permits values are projected to rebound 2.4% m/m in April after the 5.8% drop in March.

Japanese GDP – Japan revised Q1 GDP is likely to be revised slightly higher at 0.6% from 0.5% given the stronger than expected capex. April current account and May bank lending are also on tap, with the latter having held at 3.0% y/y over the past couple of months.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Visit Website to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 8th June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly slightly higher, with Japanese markets underperforming and marginally in the red, as the Yen strengthened and GDP data missed expectations by a wide margin. U.K. and U.S. futures are also up after Comey’s written statement ahead of today’s testimony helped to underpin U.S. markets Wednesday. In Europe markets await the ECB meeting and the U.K. general election, although first results are not expected until after market close. Bund futures were initially boosted yesterday by reports that the ECB will cut its inflation forecast today, but quickly started to head south again and while Draghi and Praet may be eager to keep any changes to the forward guidance to a minimum today, this won’t change the fact that the ECB is heading for tapering next year. In the U.K. the outcome of the election will have an impact for Brexit talks and while latest polls still give PM May the lead, her majority may not be as large, as she hoped when she called the election and the outside risk of a hung parliament would hurt U.K. markets.

FX Update: Super Thursday is here and caution is in the air in forex markets. The dollar majors and most of the main cross rates have been plying narrow ranges into the London interbank open. EURUSD has settled in the mid 1.12s, up from the low seen at 1.1204 yesterday in the wake of the Bloomberg report citing officials suggesting that the ECB will lower inflation forecasts. We still anticipant that the central bank will at its meeting today neuter the easing bias. USDJPY has ebbed back to the mid 109.0s during the Asian session today after briefly taking a look above 110.00. Aside from the ECB meeting, we have the UK election (were there is an outside risk of there being a hung parliament), and the testimony of ex-FBI director Comey (where markets will be alert for any devil in the detail following the unexpected publication of the written testimony yesterday, which didn’t really tell us anything new). We recommend fading any gains in USDJPY.

German April industrial production rose 0.8% m/m, more than expected and with March revised up to -0.1% m/m from -0.4% m/m reported initially. Production was mainly boosted by energy, which rebounded 5.7% m/m, after a slump of -4.3% in March, as a late spell of cold weather hit the country in April. Similarly, to orders data yesterday, the annual rate actually improved marginally and now stands at 2.8% y/y, up from 2.2% y/y in the previous month. Manufacturing was up 0.4% m/m and 2.1% y/y and together with robust survey numbers the data still sees the recovery intact and Germany heading for solid growth in Q2.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Elections – UK Elections are due today, although first results are not expected until after market close.The outcome of the election will have an impact for Brexit talks and while latest polls still give PM May the lead, her majority may not be as large, as she hoped when she called the election and the outside risk of a hung parliament would hurt U.K. markets.

ECB Preview – The ECB is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged and confirm the QE schedule for the rest of the year. The key question is if and how far the ECB will tweak its forward guidance and whether the easing bias will finally be scrapped. Leaked ECB reports yesterday confirmed what it is expected, that the updated set of forecasts tomorrow, will bring downward revisions to the inflation forecast, which means Draghi and Praet will have good arguments when they urge for caution to changes in the central bank’s communication and forward guidance.

EU GDP – The final Q1 GDP data for the Eurozone is likely to stay unchanged at 0.5%

US Jobless Claims – Initial claims data should decline to 240k from 248k last week and 235k in the week prior.
Canadian Housing Stats & Gov. Poloz Speech – May housing starts are expected to moderate to a 200.0k pace from 213.1k in April, as activity further unwinds from the lofty 252.3k rate in March. The April new home price index is also due today, while BOC Governor Poloz is due to speak today, in Ottawa.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Visit Website to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 9th June 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th June 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Of yesterday’s key events it was the U.K. election that brought the biggest bombshell, with the U.K. heading for a hung parliament according to the latest projections. The Pound slumped, but FTSE 100 futures are moving higher, after a largely positive session in Asia, and modest gains on Wall Street yesterday. The Hang Seng was underperforming as U.K. linked shares dipped, but Hong Kong’s index is still heading for a weekly gain amid fears of overheating. Eurozone markets got a boost yesterday from the ECB’s dovish tone, which should put a rest to tapering talk at least for now. Reports that there won’t be an early election in Italy helped Italian bonds and stock markets to outperform. However, political uncertainty in the U.K. will also hang over Brexit talks and EU officials will likely rather want clarity about the U.K.’s negotiating positions as talks are set to start this month. JP Morgan previously argued that a hung parliament could ultimately support the pound if it leads to a coalition that takes a softer approach to Brexit, for now though the slump in the Pound should weigh on Gilts, while Bund futures continued to rise in after hour trade yesterday and should remain underpinned by the ECB’s cautious approach to exit steps. Today’s data calendar started with German trade early in the session, and French production, while later on we will see U.K. production and trade numbers.

UK election delivered an unexpected hung parliament outcome, based on projections with 600 of the 650 seats having been declared The Conservative Party is set to come in short of the 326-majority threshold with 316 seats, while Labour is set to come in with 265 (gaining 33), the LibDems with 13 (up five), and the SNP (Scottish National Party) with 34 seats (down 22). The pound lost 2% following exit polls last yesterday which accurately portended this outcome. A period of political deal making now lies ahead in the UK, which may be complicated by an uncertain fate of the prime minister, May, who has lost a lot of political capital after calling the snap election back in April and has seen a 20-point poll lead evaporate. The most obvious alliance would be a Tory-LibDem coalition, as was seen following the 2010 election, which would likely result in a net softer stance on Brexit. Uncertainty now looms., and the June 19 start date for EU exit negotiations looks to be in jeopardy. One takeaway forms the election is that a second Scottish independence referendum now looks a lot less likely, with the SNP having lost 22 seats.

ECB drops easing bias on rates, while leaving current policy rates and QE schedule unchanged. Draghi finally admitted that deflation risks have disappeared and removed the easing bias on rates, the doves are keeping a joker up their sleeves and maintain that QE can still be extended in duration or size. So not quite a neutral stance yet, despite the improvements noted for the growth outlook. In US on the other hand, the major event yesterday was Comey’s Testimony, which turned US Markets negative with both stocks and bonds. Comey started his testimony saying that defamation of him and the FBI by Trump publicly were outright “lies, plain and simple.”Trump lawyer Kasowitz released a press statement following Comey testimony, saying the testimony confirms Trump never sought to impede the Russia investigation, while Trump never directed or suggested Comey stop investigating anyone, including Flynn. Further, Trump never told Comey “I need loyalty” in form or substance. He also attacked Comey for admitting leaking “privileged communications” with Trump. Markets remain of two minds, wanting a relief rally on stocks, but cautious ahead of UK election returns.

Main Macro Events Today

UK PM May Speech – UK Prime Minister Teresa May expected to give a speech today in London, about the UK general Elections.

UK Production & trade Balance – April’s production data are out today, with Manufacturing Production anticipated to rise for April at 0.9% versus the -0.6% last month. Industrial data expected to rise as well at 0.8 % from -0.5 %. Goods trade Balance should increase slightly to -12B from -13.4B.

Canadian Labour Data – May Employment Change for Canada should post a 11K headline, from 3.2K in April and down from 19.4K in March. The unemployment rate expected at 6.6% up from 6.5% in April.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.