Date : 28th November 2017. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th November 2017. FX News Today European Outlook:Asian stock markets headed south again, as declines and energy and mining stocks led shares lower amid a further drop in metal prices. Concern China’s regulators may limit the flow of funds into Hong Kong’s stock markets adding to pressure. The China Securities Regulatory Commission is suspending approval of mutual funds that plan to allocate more than 80% in Hong Kong listed shares, according to media reports. The Hang Seng declined -0.65%, the CSP 300 was down -0.22%, against minimal losses in Nikkei and ASX 200. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also heading south, as the U.S. tax debate gets underway. Oil prices are down and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 57.75. Today’s local calendar remains relatively quiet, but includes Eurozone M3 money supply, Canadian RMPI, US Housing Index, trade, consumer confidence, RBNZ Stability Report and lot of Fedspeeches. German import price inflation fell back to 2.6% y/y in October, from 3.0% y/y in the pervious month. Like the deceleration in HICP inflation that month the drop was largely driven by lower energy prices and excluding energy the annual rate actually rose to 2.2% y/y from 2.1% y/y. So a confirmation that energy prices continue to play a dominant role in headline developments, but also that underlying inflation pressures are slowly picking up again even on the import price front. U.S. reports: revealed a surprising 6.2% October new home sales climb to a hurricane-boosted 685k rate that marked a 10-year high, following a trimming in September’s prior cycle-high to 645k from 667k. Home sales rose 1% in the south despite huge prior gains, though we saw larger 6%-30% October gains in the other three regions. A preponderance of upside surprises in the construction and factory-sensitive reports through early-2018 given disaster-related rebuilding activity, are still widely expected. The Dallas Fed index bucked this boost however, as well as a likely lift from rising oil prices, with a headline drop to a still-firm 19.4 from an 11-year high of 27.6 in October, while the ISM-adjusted measure fell to 55.6 from a 57.9 October cycle-high. A small November drop-backs has been seen in most producer sentiment levels, though still-robust levels suggest upside risk to 3.0% Q4 GDP estimate, after an assumed Q3 boost to 3.5% from 3.0%. Main Macro Events Today US Consumer Confidence – Expectations – seen edging up to 124.0 from 125.9. September Case-Shiller home price index and the September FHFA home price index Canadian IPPI – Expectations –rise up to 0.5% in October (m/m, nsa) after the 0.3% decline in September. Fed’s Dudley and FOMC Member Powell and Harker Speech BoC Financial System Review – Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins speech at 16:30 GMT. RBNZ Financial stability Report Charts of the Day Support and Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 29th November 2017. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th November 2017. FX News Today European Outlook: Asian markets seem to have shrugged off North Korea’s missile launch and turned their focus to the progress of Trump’s tax cut plans, with a weaker yen, helping the Nikkei to rise 0.49%. the ASX is also up Hang Seng and CSI 300 are underperforming and struggling to hang on to marginal gains, and the MSCI Asia Pacific index gained for the first time in three days. China’s 10-year yield remained above 4% as the PBOC once again refrained from adding net liquidity. U.K. stock futures are down, despite reported that negotiators reached an outline deal on the Brexit “divorce bill”, which would lead the Irish border issue as the only obstacle to early trade and transition talks. Today’s calendar has Eurozone ESI economic confidence, preliminary inflation data out of Spain and Germany, U.K. money supply and credit growth as well as French GDP and consumer spending. Negotiators reached outline deal on Brexit “divorce bill”, according to Bloomberg reports.Cable surged nearly 100 points to 1.3325 following Bloomberg headlines (citing The Telegraph) saying that the U.K. and EU have agreed on divorce terms. EU leaders will still have the final say whether the offer is high enough to unblock talks on transition and trade agreements. There also remains the difficult and sensitive issue of the Irish border, but Irish Foreign Minister Coveney said U.K. and EU teams are discussing possible wordings for a commitment on the border issue, that would allow trade talks to move ahead. Ireland can still block the move at the December summit where heads of states will to sign off any possible deal. Main Macro Events Today EMU ESI confidence – Expectations – 114.6 up from 114.0 in October US Prelim GDP – Expectations – upward revision to a 3.2% rate of growth, versus the initial 3.0% print. BOE Governor Carney Speaks at 14:00 GMT and BOE Ramsden speaks at 14:45 GMT Fed Chair Yellen Testifies at 15:00 GMT Charts of the Day Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 30th November 2017. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th November 2017. FX News Today European Outlook: The global sell off in tech stocks continued in Asia, Japanese markets managed to outperform, underpinned by financials and the Nikkei managed a gain of nearly 0.6%, but the Hang Seng dropped 1.5%, the CSI 300 1.3% and the ASX declined 0.69%, after the government announced an inquiry into banks. South Korean listed shares dropped after the central bank hiked interest rates. UK100 futures are heading south, U.S. futures are narrowly mixed. Data releases in Europe include Eurozone jobless numbers and most importantly preliminary Eurozone HICP readings for November. Sterling continued has extended its ascent into a third day, with Cable punching out a fresh two-month high of 1.3480 and EURGBP plumbing a three-week low. Reports continue to point to a deal-in-the-works between the EU and the UK on the final financial settlement, and there is also raised hopes that an agreement will be made on the Irish border issue (and so avoid the spectre of a Dublin veto). Elsewhere, EURUSD has remained buoyant, although has thus far remained below yesterday’s peak at 1.1882. USDJPY rose for a third straight session, logging an 11-day peak of 111.24. This is the biggest rebound the pair has seen in four weeks, marking a break in the down phase that’s been in place since November (both breaking above and closing above trend resistance yesterday). Strong gains have also been seen in EURJPY, which is up nearly 1% over the last day, along with GBPJPY, which has surged by nearly 2% over the last two days. The yen, which is generally regarded as the safe haven currency of choice, has clearly not been in demand despite the haemorrhage in tech stocks over the last day, and concerns about North Korea’s ongoing development of ICBM capability. Main Macro Events Today EU CPI – Expectations – rise by 0.2% for November from 0.9% seen in October. EU Unemployment Rate – Expectations – Unchanged at 8.9% for October US Unemployment Claims and PCE – Expectations – Unemployment Claims expected at 240K from 239K seen last week, while core PCE expected to rise to 0.2% m/m from 0.1%. Last day of OPEC meeting Charts of the Day Support and Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 1st December 2017. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st December 2017. FX News Today European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mostly higher as tech stocks recovered on Wall Street and key oil exporting countries agreed to extend production cuts. Hang Seng and CSI 300 underperforming once again, after a weak Caixin manufacturing PMI reading. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are in the red, however, Japanese and U.S. long yields are down. Meanwhie, WTI crude languishes at the bottom of its intra day range, trading just above the $57.00 mark, as OPEC and Russia agrees to continue output caps through the end of 2018. The agreement will reportedly be reviewed in June of next year. This was the outcome most had been looking for, though with the market still overweight on the long side, profit taking may keep further gains out of reach until positioning returns to a more neutral state. Today’s calendar has final Eurozone manufacturing PMI readings for November, which are not expected to bring major surprises and confirm preliminary readings. The U.K. CIPS manufacturing meanwhile is sseen steady at 56.5, unchanged from October. FX Action: USDJPY edged out an 11-day high of 112.69 in the early Asia-Pacific session, and has since remained buoyant. This makes it the fourth consecutive day the pair has risen. Yen weakness has been driving the move. EURJPY logged a four-month high, at 134.29, GBPJPY a two-month high of 152.52, and AUDJPY a 10-day peak. A flood of data releases were seen today out of Japan, the more salient of which from a monetary policymaker perspective, was that inflation remains benign, with the October CPI headline coming in a just 0.2% y/y and the core CPI version at 0.8% y/y, well off the 2.0% BoJ target. Other data included a solid outcome in the November manufacturing PMI, which rose to a 53.6 reading from 52.8 in the month prior, its best in 44 months. Capital expenditure rose a solid 4.3% q/q in Q3, while labour data showed that the job to applicant ratio rose to its highest since January 1974. Main Macro Events Today EU & German Manuf. PMI – Expectations – rise by 0.2% for November from 0.9% seen in October. Canadian GDP – Expectations – slowdown to a 1.6% Q3 pace of real GDP growth (q/q, saar) from the 4.5% growth rate in Q2. Canadian Employment Data – Expectations – improve by 20.0k in November after the the 35.3k gain in October US ISM Manuf. PMI – Expectations – slip to 58.4 from 58.7 for November. Charts of the Day Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 4th December 2017. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th December 2017. FX News Today The collision of two opposing forces on Friday put the markets in a lather as the Senate tax cut bill garnered sufficient momentum to pass by the skin of McConnell’s teeth, but offset by news that former Trump advisor Flynn plans to plead out to lying to the FBI and indicate he was directed (by someone) to contact the Russians. According to several reports, that “someone” now appears to have been Trump’s son-in-law Kushner, who has meanwhile been invited back before the Senate Intelligence panel. At least in the short-term, this was a clear victory for volatility for a change, which was one of the main beneficiaries, contributing to large swings in stocks, yields and the dollar. It seems that December has begun with a bang and the last month of the year is certainly setting up to be an eventful one ahead of the holidays and before we close out 2017 United States: The U.S. economic calendar will feature a steady drumbeat of factory, trade, ISM services, ADP, productivity and credit data all setting the table for the main course on Friday — the jobs report. November non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 260k, with a 250k private payroll gain following the October 261k print. Factory goods orders are forecast (Monday) to rise 0.2% for October after a 1.5% gain in September. The trade deficit is expected (Tuesday) to widen to -$47.5 bln in October vs -$43.5 bln, while ISM Non-Manufacturing index is set to slip to a still-respectable 59.0 in November from 60.1. The MBA mortgage market indices are due (Wednesday), along with the release of the private ADP employment survey. Q3 productivity is expected to increase 3.3% vs 3.0% in Q2 (Wednesday), allowing unit labor costs to slip 0.1% from 0.5%. Initial jobless claims may slip 2k to 236k for the December 2 week (Thursday). Rounding out the week after the payrolls report (Friday) will be preliminary Michigan sentiment and wholesale trade. Canada: The BoC’s announcement (Wednesday) is the focus this week. No change is expected in the current 1.00% rate setting. Taking into consideration ongoing uncertainty over NAFTA and the Bank’s desire to gauge the impact of this year’s 50 bp in hikes and upcoming mortgage rule changes, the next hike is anticipated in March at 25 basis point move. Meanwhile, a busy data calendar is on tap this week. The October trade deficit (Tuesday) is expected to narrow to -C$2.6 bln from -C$3.2 bln in September. Productivity (Wednesday) is expected to contract 0.5% (q/q, sa) in Q3 after the 0.1% dip in Q2, as hours worked growth remained firm but output growth slowed sharply. Building permits (Thursday) are expected to fall 1.0% in October after the 3.8% gain in September. Housing starts (Friday) are projected to slow to a 215.0k unit growth rate in November from the 222.8k growth clip in October. Capacity utilization (Friday) is on track to improve to 85.1% in Q3 from 85.0% in Q2. Europe: Political events move to the forefront again, as U.K. Prime Minister May is set to meet EU’s Juncker and Barnier on Monday and Germany’s Social Democrats are inching closer towards formal coalition talks with Chancellor Merkel and her CDU/CSU alliance. SPD leader Schulz has a chance to put the issue to a vote at a party conference this week but as the last round of coalition talks showed, even the start of formal negotiations would not secure that there will be a deal at the end. Data releases this week are expected to confirm the stronger than expected growth trajectory. The final reading of the November Eurozone Services PMI (Tuesday) is expected to be confirmed at 56.2, with companies reporting swift job creation, but also a buildup of inflationary pressures that will add to the arguments of the hawks at the ECB. German October manufacturing orders (Wednesday) may be expected to correct -0.2% m/m , after the rise of 1.0% m/m in the previous month, but the overall trend remains very strong. Meanwhile German industrial production should still benefit from the robust rise in orders in previous months and is expected to have expanded 1.0% m/m in October. The data calendar also includes German trade data, French production, Eurozone retail sales and producer price inflation. Supply comes from Germany, with a EUR 2 bln 10-year Bund auction scheduled for Wednesday. UK: Monday’s meeting between British PM May and top EU officials will draw a lot of attention, as this is the juncture when an agreement on divorcing terms is now widely expected to be announced. The pound rallied by over 1% last week at the prompt of media reports suggest that both the UK and the EU have reached a concord with both the final financial settlement Britain will pay before leaving, to square exiting obligations, and the Irish border issue — the two thorniest issues of the three issues that comprise the overall divorcing arrangements (the other being the rights of EU and British citizens living in each other’s territory). Should this prove the case, talks on a post-Brexit trading relationship can begin, along with the possibility of a transitory period. The data calendar this week is highlighted by the release of the construction and service-sector PMI November surveys (Monday and Tuesday, respectively). These will follow the much stronger than expected November PMI report for the manufacturing sector, released on Friday, which has offered fresh evidence of the impact that a competitive exchange rate and rising European demand have been having on the sector. Production and trade figures for October are also due on Friday. Japan: In Japan, November services PMI (Tuesday) is penciled in edging up to 53.5 from 53.4 previously. Revised Q3 GDP (Friday) is forecast to improve to a 1.6% y/y pace, from the initial 1.4% reading. Also, the October current account surplus is seen narrowing to JPY 1,700 bln from 2,271 bln in September. November bank loan figures are also on deck Friday. China: China November Caixin/Markit services PMI (Tuesday) is forecast at 51.5 from 51.2, while the November trade report (Friday) should see the surplus narrow to $35.0 bln from $38.2 bln. November CPI and PPI (Saturday) should show some slowing in inflation and we estimate the former at a 1.7% y/y clip from 1.9%, and 5.9% y/y from 6.9% for the latter. Australia: The RBA is seen holding rates steady at the current 1.50% rate setting (Tuesday). The Q3 current account deficit (Tuesday) is seen narrowing to -A$9.0 bln from -A$9.6 bln. Retail sales (Tuesday) are expected to expand 0.3% m/m in October after the flat reading in September. GDP (Wednesday) is expected grow with a 0.5% gain (q/q, sa) in Q3 after the 0.8% improvement in Q2. The trade surplus (Thursday) is anticipated at A$1.9 bln in October from A$1.7 bln in September. Housing investment (Friday) is expected to rise 2.0% m/m in October after the 2.3% drop in September. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 5th December 2017. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th December 2017. FX News Today European Outlook: The boost from U.S. tax cut hopes started to fade in Asia and equity markets mostly headed south, as investors moved out of tech stocks once again and into banks. The Nikkei closed down -0.37%, the Hang Seng is down -0.57%. U.S. futures moved higher, but UK100 futures are also down, as yesterday’s hopes of a Brexit deal that would pave the way for talks on trade and transition were smashed for now. Long yields moved higher in Asia, although late gains in Bund futures yesterday and the prospect that the GER30 is likely to retreat further from yesterday’s highs, could see yields also coming down somewhat in early trade. The data calendar includes the final readings of Eurozone services PMIs for November, as well as the U.K. services PMI and EMU retail sales. German coalition talks and Brexit negotiations remain in focus ahead of next week’s EU summit. FX Action: USDJPY lifted marginally during the pre-European session in Asia. Higher U.S. Treasury yields helped lift the pairing in the face of generally lower stock markets in Asia-Pacific, which were afflicted by a resumption in the global tech sector selloff (the Nasdaq closed on Wall Street yesterday with a loss of just over 1%). AUDJPY buying was seen following above-forecast retail sales data out of Australia, which was followed by a comparatively less dovish statement from the RBA governor following today’s policy meeting that left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. Meanwhile, in Europe, Cable has settled around 1.3470 after dropping to a 1.3412 low from levels above 1.3500, since there was no deal with regard to divorcing arrangements between EU and UK. PM May said during a press conference with EU’s Juncker that “differences remain” despite having a “constructive meeting.” Is also became clear that there would be no breakthrough deal on the Irish border at meeting between May and Juncker. For a while it seemed that a compromise deal had been reached, but May’s Northern Irish ally DUP criticised the leaked details earlier although May said there will be further talks ahead of the EU summit next week, which means there is still the chance that there will be sufficient progress for EU leaders to pave the way for early talks on trade and transition next week. Main Macro Events Today EU & German Service PMI – Expectations – unchanged at 56.2 and 54.9 respectively. UK Service PMI – Expectations –a headline of 55.0 after the 55.6 reading of the October survey. Canadian Trade Balance – Expectations – narrow to -C$2.6 bln from -C$3.2 bln in September. US ISM Non – Manuf. PMI – Expectations – 59.0 in November from 60.1. Charts of the Day Support and Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 6th December 2017. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th December 2017. FX News Today European Outlook: Stock markets tanked in Asia overnight, with Nikkei and Hang Seng both losing nearly 2% as technology, mining, consumer and industrial sectors came under pressure and a stronger Yen added to the sell off in Japanese stock markets, while the ASX outperformed with a -0.44% loss as the AUD weakened on disappointing GDP numbers. Australia GDP expanded 0.6% in Q3 (q/q, sa), mildly undershooting expectations but after an upwardly revised 0.9% rise in Q2 (was +0.8%). GDP climbed 2.8% y/y in Q3 after a revised 1.9% growth rate in Q2. AUDUSD fell to 0.7574 from 0.7613 just ahead of the report, as the undershoot of total GDP relative to projections combined with the sluggish household consumption growth pace squashed the mild jolt of rate hike optimism seen following modestly less dovish outing from the RBA. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also down and ongoing pressure on stock markets should keep EGBs supported and yields The calendar has the Eurozone retail PMI, with Brexit talks remaining a key focus ahead of next week’s EU summit. German manufacturing orders unexpectedly rose 0.5% m/m in October. Expectations had been for a correction from the strong September number, but while the last figure was revised up to 1.2% m/m from 1.0% m/m, the October number showed a further improvement of 0.5% m/m (median -0.2%). This confirms firm survey data and expectations for another strong GDP growth rate in Q4. The German, but also the overall Eurozone industrial sector continues to fire on all cylinders with job creation accelerating, but price pressures also emerging now. Against that background Draghi could tweak the forward guidance next week somewhat to clarify that in the central scenario net asset purchases will end in September next year, even if the door to another follow on program remains theoretically open. Main Macro Events Today ADP Non-Farm Employment – Expectations – increase to 185k for November vs 235k previously. US Labor Costs (Q3)- Expectations – slip to 0.2% from 0.5%. BoC Rate Statement – Expectations – no change is expected to the 1.00% rate setting in today’s announcement. Bank-speak since the September rate increase emphasised that the Bank is in an “intense data dependent mode” and will be cautious in the removal of further stimulus. Uncertainty remains elevated, notably around the (still) ongoing Nafta negotiations. Oil Inventories – Expectations – a decline by 0.25M Barrels from last week -3.429M outcome. Charts of the Day Support and Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 7th December 2017. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th December 2017. FX News Today European Outlook: Stock markets recovered in Asia overnight, with Japan leading the way as the yen weakened. Tech stocks rebounded, after sell off in U.S. stocks halted. The Nikkei managed a 1.45% gain, outpacing moves higher in Hang Seng and ASX 200. The CSI 300 underperformed and headed south, with commercial banks under pressure on the mainland and in Hong Kong after regulators said it is planning the introduction of quantitative indicators in the management of commercial banks’ liquidity and the IMF suggested banks to increase capital buffers against a sudden downturn. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are moving higher, confirming that risk appetite is returning, which could see Bund and Gilt yields recover some of yesterday’s losses. Today’s calendar has U.K. house price inflation from Halifax and the detailed reading of Eurozone Q3 GDP. Brexit talks remain in focus and in Germany the SPD is set to make a formal decision on whether to enter coalition talks with Merkel’s CDU/CSU a party convention today. German industrial production unexpectedly dropped -1.4% m/m in October and while September was revised up to -0.9% m/m from -1.6% m/m reported initially, it still leaves production down for a second consecutive month. The numbers look at odds with strong orders numbers and survey data, but indicated a build up in the backlog of orders that also squares with PMI reports. This would suggest that the weaker than expected production numbers are not a sign of weakening growth momentum, but at least partly a reflection of the fact that companies seem to be running into capacity constraints, and while the annual rate fell back to 2.7% y/y from 4.1% y/y, the growth rates remain robust so far. Main Macro Events Today EU GDP (Q3) – Expectations – unchanged at 0.6% q/q and at 2.5% y/y. ECB Pres. Draghi Speech at 16:00 GMT in Frankfurt US Unemployment Claims – Expectations – up by 2k to 240k for the December 2 week. Canadian Building Permits and Ivey PMI- Expectations – Building permits expected to fall 1.0% in October after the 3.8% gain in September, while Ivey PMI expected to slip by 1.1 to 62.7 for November. Charts of the Day Support and Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 8th December 2017. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th December 2017. FX News Today European Outlook: Asian stock markets rallied after a positive close on wall Street. The trade surplus overshot expectations, and is bullish for China’s economy. China’s trade surplus improved to $40.2 bln in November from $38.1 bln in October, while Japan’s Q3 GDP grew 2.5% in the final reading, up from the preliminary 1.4% gain (q/q, saar). GDP grew 2.9% in the final report for Q2. Japan led the way as a weaker yen underpinned exporters, as the dollar gained amid reports that U.S. tax cuts are making progress in congress. With investors looking in profits at the end of a strong year for stocks there have been sizeable swings and forex markets remain a driver, with FTSE 100 futures in the red, as the Pound rallied on news of progress in Brexit negotiations that could see next week’s EU summit pave the way for early trade and transition talks. U.K. jobs data in the afternoon overshadows local data releases, which include French production, U.K. trade and the U.K. NIESR GDP estimate. White smoke over Brussels as U.K. and EU strike deal on key Brexit issues that is hoped to unlock Phase 2 and talks on a transition period and future trade relationships at next week’s summit. After agreeing on the future role of the ECJ yesterday May managed to find a compromise on the Irish boarder, that kept the DUP happy but also satisfied the Republic of Ireland, with the latter confirming that it will now back talks moving into Phase 2. The Pound rallied on the news and FTSE 100 futures are also moving higher now after initially dipping on the stronger Pound. EGB yields are moving up in early trade as safe haven flows are being reversed. Elsewhere in europe, German sa trade surplus narrowsed as imports surged. Germany’s sa trade surplus narrowed to EUR 19.8 bln in October, from EWUR 21.9 bln in the previous month, as exports contract for a second consecutive month, while imports surged 1.8% m/m, after falling -1.1% m/m in September. The surge in imports may give a partial explanation and overall the prospects for exports and production remain good, despite the weak October numbers. Main Macro Events Today UK Manuf. and Industrial Production – Expectations – Manufacturing Production to come at 0.1% m/m after 0.7% seen in September, and with 3.9% y/y growth from 2.7%. Industrial production headline to come in at 0.0% m/m after 0.7% m/m growth in September, and with 3.5% y/y growth. US NFP – Expectations – at 200K from 261K seen last month Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count Charts of the Day Support and Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
