Date : 4th May 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th May 2018. FX News Today European Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are up 0.3 bp at 0.531% in opening trade, the 2-year is trading unchanged at -0.599%. Peripherals are outperforming again while European stock futures are moving higher at the start of the session, against losses in U.S. futures after a weaker session in Asia overnight. U.S. jobs data rather than ongoing trade talks between China and the U.S. seem the main focus for markets today. The local calendar has the final reading of April services PMIs as well as March retail sales data. FX Update: The dollar has remained in a consolidation after pulling back from recent trend highs. EURUSD has remained settled in the upper 1.1900s after posting a new four-month low at 1.1937 on Wednesday. Rebound gains above 1.2000 have so far proved fleeting. USDJPY has settled to an orbit of the 109.00 level after correcting from the 11-week high seen yesterday at 110.03. The move reflects a broader correction in the dollar following the less hawkish than anticipated post-FOMC meeting statement from the Fed on Wednesday and a position-trimming and/or hedging dynamic ahead of the U.S. jobs report, which is generally expected to be strong but, as always, carries a degree of two-way risk for market participants. Regarding the U.S. payrolls report, they are expected at a solid 210k headline rise, though risks are to the upside following tight initial claims data and remarkable strength in consumer confidence and vehicle sales data. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today German Services – Expectations – unchanged at 54.1 and composite at 55.3. Eurozone Services – Expectations – Markit Services PMI expected at 55.0, leaving the composite at 55.2. Speeches out of Fed’s Dudley and Quarles, FOMC Williams and German Buda President Weidmann NFP data – Expectations – US April payrolls expected at 192k, upside risk given claims, while jobless rate is estimated to slip to 4.0% from 4.1%, which would be the lowest since December 2000. Average hourly earnings should rise 0.2%, for a y/y gain of 2.7%, steady from March. Support & Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 7th May 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th May 2018. Main Macro Events This Week Global growth has clearly moderated in 2018. And rising interest rates, geopolitical risks, and possible trade headwinds exacerbated worries. Many key reports have disappointed so far this year, including the March and April U.S. jobs report, Q1 UK GDP, retail sales, and various regional PMIs. Fears over real shooting wars with North Korea, Syria, Iran and possible involvement with Russia, hit business and consumer sentiment hard, while angst over a trade war has impacted too. One major result from the slide in momentum is that it will keep central bank normalization at bay. United States: The U.S. jobs report disappointed on nearly every metric, and especially in the service sector. The April CPI (Thursday) is expected to rise 0.2% following a 0.1% dip in March, which was largely due to the 2.8% drop in energy prices. Meanwhile, core CPI should rise 0.2% as well, supported by ongoing gains in shelter and housing. The y/y rate should edge up to 2.2% from 2.1% in March, which would be the highest since a similar gain in February 2017. April PPI (Wednesday) also is expected to rise 0.2% overall and for the core, after 0.3% increases for both in March. The annual rates would slow to 2.7% y/y from 3.0% y/y for the headline, and 2.4% y/y from 2.7% y/y for the core. Fedspeakers are back now that the FOMC is out of the way and Earnings remain a focal point. Canada: April employment highlights this week’s calendar. The jobs report (Friday) is seen revealing a 25.0k rise after the 32.3k gain in March. The unemployment rate should hold at a 40-year low 5.8%. Housing starts (Tuesday) are expected to expand at a 220.0k unit pace in April from the 225.2k in March. Building permit values (Wednesday) are expected to fall 1.0% in March after the 2.6% gain in February. The March new home price index (Thursday) is projected to slip 0.1% after the 0.2% decline in February. Europe: Data releases focus mainly on Germany. German March manufacturing orders are seen rising 0.5% m/m after 0.3% m/m in the previous month, confirming that the manufacturing sector remains robust for now, although with the earlier timing of the Easter holidays the forecast comes with a larger error margin and downside risks. This is even more true for March industrial production numbers (Tuesday), which include construction and energy production. We are looking for a rebound of 0.5% m/m after the weather related -1.6 m/m contraction in February. German trade data is also due and we expect data to back expectations for a marked slowdown in German GDP growth to just around 0.3% q/q in Q1. UK: The week ahead is highlighted by the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (announcing Thursday) – no change expected following the plethora of weak data especially Q1 GDP. The data calendar brings the April BRC retails sales report (Tuesday), which we expect to show a contraction of 0.8% m/m, which would payback for the strong 1.4% m/m gain in March, and March industrial production and trade numbers (both Thursday). We expect industrial production to rise 0.2% m/m (median 0.1%) after 0.1% m/m growth in the month prior. Japan: March personal income and PCE data are due (Tuesday), with the latter seen up 1.0% from the prior 0.1% increase. The March current account surplus (Thursday) should widen to JPY 2,800 bln from 2,076 bln. April bank loan figures are also due (Thursday). China: April trade report (Tuesday) is expected to reveal a $20.0 surplus, versus the previous $33.7 bln surplus. April inflation (Thursday) should show CPI slipping to a 2.0% y/y from 2.1%, while April PPI should warm to 3.5% from 3.1%. Australia: Retail sales (Tuesday) are expected to rise 0.3% in March after the 0.6% gain in February. Housing finance (Friday) is seen growing 1.0% in March after the 0.2% dip in February. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Senior Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 8th May 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th May 2018. FX News Today Asian Wrap: Stock markets remained underpinned during the Asian session, as concerns about global trade ease and 10 year Treasury yields hold below 3%. Oil prices remain in focus ahead of Trump’s decision on the future of the trade accord with Iran. Oil prices are trading marginally below the USD 70 per barrel mark. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.4 bp at 2.953%, 10-year JGBs are up 0.6 bp at 0.041%. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are moving higher and in Asia Chinese markets outperformed again as optimism on future trade returns. The CSI 300 is up 1.08%, the Hang Seng gained 1.24%, while Nikkei and Topix are up 0.21% and 0.09% respectively. German Data – Trade Surplus Increased & Strong Industrial Production: Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 22.0 bln in March, up from EUR 19.4 bln in the previous month, largely thanks to a rebound in exports, which rose 1.7% m/m, after two consecutive months of contraction. Imports declined for a third month. The March number left the accumulated surplus for the first quarter at EUR 63.1 bln, down from EUR 64.2 bln in the last quarter of 2017 and suggesting that net exports didn’t contribute much to overall growth in Q1. German industrial production stronger than expected. Production rebounded 1.0% m/m in March from the -1.6% m/m contraction in the previous month. There was a broad rebound across all manufacturing groups, energy production expanded again and construction rose 0.6% m/m, after falling -3.1% m/m in the previous month, which confirms that the bad weather was largely to blame for the weak February numbers. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today TRUMP Speech – Expectations – He will announce that the USA is leaving the Iran deal or as a minimum, extending the deadline. All of which is OIL price positive. Australian Federal Budget Release – Expectations – Some tax Relief for low income families and businesses, plus significant infrastructure spending. Speeches out of the Fed’s Powell – “Monetary Policy and Capital Flows” – one to watch direct implications for potential future policy Support & Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Senior Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 9th May 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th May 2018. FX News Today European Outlook: Bund yields quickly backed up from opening lows and the 10-year is now up 0.8 bp on the day at 0.566%, Italian 10-year yields also continue to rise amid ongoing election jitters, after jumping 10 bp yesterday. Curves continue to steepen as the short end outperforms. European stock futures are mixed, with GER30 and UK100 moving higher as Sterling and Pound continue to decline against the dollar, with the UK100 shrugging off a slump in BRC retail sales in April. Oil prices are back up above USD 70 per barrel, but the overall reaction to Trump’s confirmation that the U.S. will pull out of the Iran nuclear deal has been limited so far. Still to come Norway and Sweden release inflation data, France has production numbers for March. FX Update: The dollar has traded firmer, led by a 0.5% rise in USDJPY after the Tokyo fixing today. The USD index is showing a 0.2% gain, posting a new four-month high at 93.34, and EURUSD logged a fresh 2018 low at 1.1830. USDJPY lifted above 109.50 for the first time since last Thursday after breaking out of a narrow consolidation around the 109.00 level. EURJPY and AUDJPY also rebounded out of respective trend lows that were posted yesterday amid a pronounced bout of yen selling that was seen in Tokyo. As expected, President Trump announced that the U.S. was pulling out of the international nuclear deal with Iran, though market fallout had been muted so far. Both Tehran and other signatories have indicated that there is a possibility that the deal could remain effective, subject to discussions in the coming weeks, which has helped limit any fallout. Oil prices have gained, but have remained below the trend highs seen on Monday, and stock markets have been mostly near flat. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today CAD Building Permits – Expectations – expected to rise 0.2% overall and for the core (medians same), after 0.3% increases for both in March. The annual rates would slow to 2.7% y/y from 3.0% y/y for the headline, and 2.4% y/y from 2.7% y/y for the core. US PPI and core PPI – Expectations – PPI is expected to rise 0.2% in April. Goods prices are anticipated to be down around 0.1% and Services prices should rise 0.3%. Crude Oil Inventories Support & Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 10th May 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th May 2018. FX News Today Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.9 bp and back below the 3% mark at 2.98% as tensions in the middle East rise. 10-year JGB yields meanwhile picked up 0.2 bp to 0.043%, as stock markets moved higher and the yen declined. Automakers and banks underpinned Japanese indices and a weaker yen, saw Nikkei rising 0.38%. Stocks are cautiously higher across other Asian markets as well. The Hang Seng outperformed and moved up 0.81% and the CSI 300 is up 0.16%. North Korean tensions seem to be easing, but tensions in the middle East are building and oil prices are up and the WTI future is trading at USD 71.63 per barrel, as Israel said it struck targets in Syria after Iranian forces fired missiles at the Golan Heights. FX Update: USDJPY edged out an eight-day high at 109.92 during the Tokyo session, but left the recent trend high at 110.03 unchallenged. The yen maintained a relatively soft tone amid a backdrop of stock market gains on Wall Street and in Asia. Oil prices, meanwhile, logged a new 42-month high. EURUSD’s downtrend, now in its fourth consecutive week, extended again yesterday, with the pair logging a fresh 2018 nadir at 1.1822. Cable has been making time in the mid 1.3500s, consolidating into today’s BoE policy announcement after posting a four-month low at 1.3484. After a run of sub-forecast data there is now a strong consensus for the BoE to refrain from hiking today. USDCAD traded softer over the last day after yesterday posting a seven-week high at 1.2997. The pair has settled in the lower 1.2800s. The surge in oil prices has returned some demand for the Canadian dollar given the benefit to Canada’s terms of trade. The NZD came under some pressure after the RBNZ delivered an expected unchanged policy announcement, leaving the cash rate at 1.75%, but added guidance that it would remained unchanged for a “considerable” period. NZD-USD logged a five-month low at 0.6902. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today BOE Monetary Policy Summary – Expectations – BoE expected to leave the repo rate at 0.50% and the nascent tightening cycle in limbo after the BoE tightened for the first time in over a decade last November, though it is widely expected a hike to come in August. A Reuters poll, published just earlier, found 59 out of 62 economists expecting the BoE to hold policy unchanged. This compares to the survey Reuters published on April 18th that found 69 of 76 expecting a 25 bp rate hike. MPC Bank Rate Votes – Expectations – 7 Votes for the rate to remain at 0.5%, while 2 for a Rate hike. BOE’s Governor Carney speech US CPI & Core CPI – Expectations – The April CPI is expected to rise 0.3% following a 0.1% dip in March, which was largely due to the 2.8% drop in energy prices. Meanwhile, core CPI should rise 0.2% as well, supported by ongoing gains in shelter and housing. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 11th May 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th May 2018. FX News Today Asian Market Wrap: Asian stock mostly moved higher, after a good close in the U.S. which was underpinned by a tame inflation report that reduced pressure on the Fed to tighten again. The Nikkei is up 0.93%, the Topix gained 0.77% and the Hang Seng is up 1.31%. Mainland Chinese bourses underperformed and the CSI is down -0.20%, but overall a solid result in Asia and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index is heading for the best week since February, as U.S. yields and USD retreated. U.S. stock futures are also moving higher in tandem with U.K. futures. Treasury yields meanwhile have come up slightly from the post inflation lows and the 10-year is up 0.2 bp at 2.964%, while 10-year JGB’s are down -0.1 bp at 0.039%. FX Update: USDJPY is near net unchanged on the day so far. There has been some chop, with the pair posting an intraday high of 109.57 before taking a near 40-pip tumble to a 109.19 low at the Tokyo fixing (00:50 GMT). USD-JPY subsequently recouped to around 109.50, fractionally up on the day’s opening levels. There have been no data or developments of note out of Japan today. The uptrend that commenced from sub-105.0 levels looks to have lost thrust. The U.S. yield curve is now the flattest its been since 2007, with long dated yields coming off while short end yields remain elevated, pricing in Fed tightening over the next year. With a lot baked in with regard to expected Fed tightening, and with high oil prices looking to sustain and related geopolitical uncertainties rising in prominence — U.S. versus Iran relations in particular, but also Venezuela’s collapsing oil industry and trade tensions — there looks to be a growing chance for USD-JPY to correct lower, driven by a retreat in the dollar and/or safe haven demand for the yen. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today CAD Jobs Numbers – Expectations – expected to slip to 17.4k from big beat last month at 32.3k. Unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.8% US UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations – both expected to slip from 98.8 and 2.7% respectively Draghi Speech – Little monetary policy implications at scheduled speech in Florence but you never can tell. Support & Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Senior Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 14th May 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th May 2018. Main Macro Events This Week Stocks have regained their footing in early May as the plethora of worries which knocked global equities lower to start the year have faded. Concerns over a more aggressive Fed tightening stance, fears over rising price pressures, worries over a slowing in growth and possible recession, uncertainty over a trade war, not to mention geopolitics and the angst over N. Korea, have all eased, though unilateral reimposition of Iran sanctions by the U.S. have contributed to fresh trend highs on WTI crude above $71 bbl. Yet investors have refocused on earnings, which have been stellar. Specifically, a less hawkish tone from the FOMC, softening in inflation data, and indications of strengthening in U.S. Q2 GDP growth to 3%, have added to the bullish tone on stocks, even as the dollar rally has paused to digest these developments and the cooler Fed outlook. United States: This week’s U.S. economic calendar will feature updates on retail sales, producer sentiment, housing starts, industrial production and business inventories. Overall the data should be positive, with retail activity estimated to extend the prior month’s gains, producer sentiment remaining strong, and housing starts still at a respectable pace. Industrial production growth should remain strong in Q2, following out-sized Q4 and Q1 gains. Inventories, should extend their rising trend in March as well, and may modestly subtract from GDP growth in Q2. Canada: In Canada CPI (Friday) highlights a busy calendar. Total CPI is expected to jump 0.5% in April (m/m, NSA) after the 0.3% gain in March, as gasoline prices surged. The CPI is seen accelerating to a 2.5% y/y pace in April from the 2.3% y/y clip in March. The BoC has expressed comfort with the pop in CPI, which has been above the 2.0% target mid-point since February, as the fall-off in temporary factors (previously restraining CPI) and minimum wage hikes provide what they see as a temporary boost. Manufacturing shipment values (Wednesday) are projected to gain 2.0% in March after the 1.9% gain in February. Retail sales(Friday) are seen growing 0.3% in March after the 0.4% rise in February. Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Schembri speaks(Wednesday) on “Reaching our Potential: Challenges and Opportunities. His speech is available on the BoC’s website at 12:00 ET. Europe: The ECB remains on course to phase out QE by the end of the year come what may, but this will only end the ongoing expansion of the central bank’s balance sheet; it still leaves officials with the task of scaling back support and returning policy back to normal. However, while rates are expected to be finally lifted next year, officials have turned cautious after a run of weak data. With that in mind the majority of this week’s data is too backward looking to really change the overall outlook. Against that background comments from ECB officials, including Draghi, Coeure, Praet (all Wednesday) and Constancio (Thursday) are all likely to sound cautiously optimistic on the growth outlook, while admitting ongoing uncertainties and risks. The main focus on the data front is German ZEW investor confidence for May. Meanwhile, the first reading of German Q1 GDP(Tuesday) is likely to show a marked deceleration in the quarterly growth rate to just 0.3% q/q , versus 0.6% q/q in Q4 last year. This would pretty much mirror developments in other major Eurozone economies and leave the overall Eurozone GDP number (also Tuesday), on course to be confirmed at 0.4% q/q , unchanged from the preliminary reading and also sharply lower than in Q4. Again, there is a lot of noise in the data and the main question not just for the ECB is now whether this is due to temporary factors, or the sign of a broader downtrend in growth. Inflation numbers meanwhile are backward looking and Italian April HICP expected (Tuesday), to be confirmed at 0.6% y/y, the German HICP rate (Wednesday) at 1.4% y/y and the overall Eurozone rate (Wednesday) at 1.2% y/y. Core inflation fell back to just 0.7% y/y in April, but that was impacted by base effects with services price inflation falling back earlier than last year from the Easter spike. The calendar also has Eurozone trade (Thursday)and current account (Friday), but that will be overshadowed by the second GDP reading. UK: Last week’s unchanged monetary policy decision from the BoE, the trimming of GDP and CPI forecasts, and the wary-but-still upbeat tone of MPC members, all met expectations, near enough. The calendar this week is quiet, highlighted by monthly BoE labour data (Tuesday). The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at the multi-decade low of 4.2% . Average household income is expected to rise 2.6% y/y in the with-bonus figure and to a new cycle high rate of 2.9% y/y in the three months to March, which should keep BoE tightening expectations alive. Japan: Tuesday brings the March tertiary industry index, which is penciled in at -0.3% versus the prior unchanged outcome. Preliminary Q1 GDP (Wednesday) is forecast at up 0.1% from the previous 1.6% increase. Revised March industrial production is due Wednesday as well. March machine orders (Thursday) are expected down 2.0% from the 2.1% previous rise. National April CPI (Friday) is forecast at up 0.6% y/y from up 1.1% overall, and up 0.7% y/y from 0.9% on a core basis. China: April fixed investment (Tuesday) should be up 7.5% y/y as it was in March. April industrial production (Tuesday) is seen up 6.5% y.y from 6.0%, while April retail sales are penciled in at up 10.2% from 10.1%. Australia: The wage cost index (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.6% in Q1 (q/q, sa) after the matching 0.6% gain in Q4. Employment (Thursday) is seen rising 10.0k in April after the 4.9k gain in March. The unemployment rate is projected at 5.5%, identical to March. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes to the May meeting are due Tuesday. RBA Deputy Governor Debelle(Tuesday)will discuss “The Outlook for the Australian Economy” at the CFO Forum 2018 in Sydney. Deputy Governor Debelle (alsoTuesday) speaks on “Interest Rate Benchmark Reform” at the ISDA forum, Hong Kong via video link. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 18th May 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th May 2018. FX News Today Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are unchanged on the day at 3.11%, 10-year JGBs marginally higher at 0.052% despite a dip in CPI inflation and long yields were mixed elsewhere across Asia. Stocks also struggled for direction. Topix and Nikkei managed gains of 0.31% each, the Hang Seng is up 0.19%, but the CSI 300 slightly down, Shanghai com and Shenzhen Comp narrowly mixed. Treasury yields near 2011 highs continue to weigh on investor sentiment, but U.S. stock futures are higher amid reports that China offered the US a USD 200 bln reduction in the bilateral trade gap. Oil prices are holding near the 2014 highs amid mounting signs of shrinking stock piles and the front end WTI future is at USD 71.61 per barrel. FX Update: The yen have traded softer into the London interbank open, which saw USDJPY touch 111.00 for the first time since January while concurrently lifting yen crosses. AUDJPY, for instance, clocked a one-month high. A dip in Japanese inflation data weighed on the yen. Headline April CPI fell to a rate of 0.6% y/y from 1.1% y/y in March, while core CPI ebbed to 0.7% y/y from 0.9% y/y. The outcomes undershot market expectations, and should maintain the BoJ’s ultra-accommodative monetary policy. EUR-USD, meanwhile, lifted back above 1.1800, though remain well off yesterday’s high at 1.1837. AUDUSD and Cable also gained, though similarly remained comfortably below the previous day’s peak. The surge in U.S. yields should keep the dollar a buy-on-dips trade. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today EU Trade Balance – expected at 20.7 B surplus slightly below the previous reading at 21 B. Canadian CPI – Expectations – CPI is expected to grow 0.4% (m/m, nsa) in April after the 0.3% gain in March. The CPI is projected to grow at a 2.3% y/y pace in April, matching the 2.3% rate of increase in March. The 2.3 y/y clip in March was the fastest rate since the 2.4% pace in October of 2014. Canadian Retail Sales – Expectations – Retail sales are expected to rise 0.3% in March after the 0.4% gain in February. The ex-autos sales aggregate is projected to rise 0.5% in March after the flat reading in February. The CPI’s gasoline price index rose 2.9% in March after the 0.7% dip in February. Hence, gasoline station sales should provide a boost to total and ex-autos sales retail sales. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 21st May 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st May 2018. Main Macro Events This Week Global yields have been on the rise all year, with Treasuries leading the upswing in core markets. The 10-year T-note has climbed 65 bps year-to-date, to 3.05%, and tested 3.12% late in the week. Italy paced the action on the week, however, jumping 30 bps. Numerous factors have served to boost rates, including global growth, inflation expectations, tighter monetary policy, fiscal policy angst, and supply. And rising rates are roiling the markets. Interest rates will remain in the spotlight this week, with Treasury supply, inflation data, and geopolitics all possibly increasing yield further. United States: Recent strength in U.S. economic data has suggested the slowing in Q1 growth was temporary, and that’s added to the bearish turn in interest rates. Upcoming reports will be monitored for further evidence of the Q2 improvement. Housing data tops this week’s releases, including new (Wednesday) and existing home sales for April (Tuesday), and will provide some insight on how this sector is faring in Q2. Also, reports on April durable goods orders (Friday), May Markit PMIs, and the May KC Fed index will give a current view on manufacturing. The FOMC minutes to the May 1, 2 policy meeting (Wednesday) will help clarify the Fed’s stress on its “symmetric” stance on inflation, and the degree to which Committee members will tolerate above target inflation. Supply factors in prominently too with a record $99 bln in shorter dated coupons to be auctioned. Canada: In Canada, the markets are closed on Monday in observance of the Victoria Day holiday. The holiday shortened week is thin on data and events. March wholesale trade shipments(Tuesday)are expected to rise 0.5% in March after the 0.8% drop in February. This is the final input into the March GDP forecast. A 0.2% GDP gain in March (m/m, sa) is expected after the 0.4% surge in February, as the economy resumes making headway after the temporary set-back in January that saw GDP fall 0.1%. There is nothing from Bank of Canada this week. Europe: It may be a decisive week for the Eurozone and the outlook for the ECB. Various PMI reports, and Ifo readings for May will hopefully bring more clarity on the question whether the slowdown in overall growth in Q1 was mainly driven by temporary factors, or it is the start of a larger down-shift in growth momentum. Even if confidence data stabilizes, as expected, there are still plenty of risks emanating from geopolitics, along with protectionist tendencies, Brexit wrangling, and now of course Italy. There, the populists, who are preparing to take over the government, have agreed spending programs that will not only see Italian debt spiking higher, but will not address the country’s underlying problems it will also set it on collision course with the ECBs and Eurozone peers. An effective stabilization in Eurozone PMI readings for May(Wednesday) and an improvement in the manufacturing reading to 56.4 from 56.2, the services reading is seen falling back to 54.5 from 45.7, which should lead the composite at 55.1, versus 55.1 in April. The German Ifo Business Climate reading (Thursday) is also expected to stabilize and an unchanged headline reading is expected of 102.1 versus 102.1 in the previous month, with expectations seen falling back slightly, but the current conditions indicator expected to improve after the holiday related noise in previous months. French national business confidence (Thursday)and German GfK consumer confidence (Thursday) are also seen unchanged over the month, while Eurozone consumer confidence(Wednesday) is expected to improve to 0.5 from 0.4.The forward looking confidence readings will likely overshadow the second release of German Q1 GDP numbers (Thursday), which will bring the full breakdown. UK: A flurry of data releases looms on the calendar this week, highlighted by the April inflation report (Wednesday), April retail sales (Thursday), and the second estimate for Q1 GDP (Friday).Monthly government borrowing data (Tuesday) and the May CBI surveys for industrial trends and distributive sales (Tuesday andWednesday, respectively) are also up. A headline CPI at 2.5% y/y is expected, which would match the prior month’s figure, which itself had undershot both the market and BoE expectation. As for retail sales, it is anticipated a 0.8% m/m rise in April, rebounding after a steep 1.2% decline in March, while Q1 GDP expected to come in unrevised from the preliminary release outcomes of 0.1% q/q and 1.2% y/y. On the Brexit front, negotiations and solution brainstorming continue at pace, and while lately causing some confusion, the overall position should become clearer as the year draws on Japan: The March all-industry index (Wednesday) is penciled in rising 0.2% on the month versus the previous 0.4% increase. May Tokyo CPI is forecast rising at a 0.6% y/y clip from 0.5% overall, and unchanged from April at up 0.6% y/y on a core basis. Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia governor Lowe(Wednesday) speaks at the Australia-China Relations Institute in Sydney. The Bank’s Assistant Governor (Financial Sector) Bullock speaks (Thursday) at the De Nederlandsche Bank Housing Market Seminar in Amsterdam. The data calendar is sparse, with Q1 construction work done (Wednesday) featuring. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 22nd May 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd May 2018. FX News Today Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields dropped -0.5 bp to 3.054% overnight, 10-year JGB yields lost most of their earlier gains and are at 0.044% and elsewhere across Asia long yields are mostly down as stock markets struggled without fresh new on Sino-American trade in holiday hit trade. Hong Kong and South Korean markets were shut for Buddha’s Birthday and elsewhere across Asia markets yesterday’s recovery fizzled out. Nikkei lost -0.23% as the Yen strengthened and despite reassurance of ongoing monetary stimulus from the BoJ. U.S. stock futures are still slightly higher. Oil prices are up and the WTI future trading at USD 72.49 per barrel.European stock futures are mixed, with the GER30 outperforming in catch up trade after yesterday’s holiday and aided by a weaker EUR. The UK100 future meanwhile is heading south after a largely weaker session in Asia. Today’s calendar focuses on the U.K., which has public finance data, the CBI industrial trends survey as well as a number of BoE speakers. FX Action: USDJPY has traded moderately softer during the Tokyo session, retreating below 111.00. This interrupts a run higher that yesterday left a four-month high at 111.39. EURJPY and AUDJPY, among other yen crosses, are also softer today. Stock markets in Asia have been mixed-to-lower today. BoJ-speak from the Governor Kuroda and Deputy Governor Wakatabe today reaffirmed commitment to monetary stimulus, with the former saying the central bank is aiming to lift CPI to the 2% target as soon as possible and the latter saying that target can be achieved with prevailing policy. The remarks follow Friday’s weak CPI data of Japan, where headline April CPI fell to 0.6% y/y from 1.1% y/y in March and core CPI ebbed to 0.7% y/y from 0.9% y/y. The outcomes undershot market expectations, and have maintained expectations for the BoJ’s ultra-accommodative monetary policy to sustain. A Reuters survey of market economists earlier last week found that over half of respondents were expecting the central bank to refrain from exiting stimulative policy until 2020. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today Speeches: MPC Member Vlieghe, MPC Member Saunders, BOE Gov. Carney and BOE Remsden UK Public Sector Net Borrowing – Expectations – at 7.1B pounds deficit in April from the 0.3B surplus seen in March. UK Inflation Report Hearings Support and Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
