Date : 16th October 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th October 2018. FX News Today Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.5 bp at 3.171% and JGB yields rose 1.0 bp to 0.142%. Bond yields are resuming their uptrend as stock market sentiment stabilized during the Asian session, although Oil prices are rising as Saudi tensions spike limited gains. There are also concerns over China’s GDP data later in the week, which markets fear will show the impact of US-Sino trade tensions. Japanese markets managed to bounce back from the 19-months low yesterday as Topix and Nikkei are up 0.13% and 0.41% respectively. The ASX is up 0.56% but the Hang Seng has lost -0.09% so far and the CSI -0.13% and Shanghai Comp and Shenzen Comp are down -0.14% and -0.21% respectively. US futures are moving higher though, in line with the overall improving trend in Asia. The front end Nymex future is trading slightly under USD 72 per barrel. European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund future opened at 158.49, down from a close of 158.59 on Monday. The 10-year cash yield is also down -0.3 bp at 0.497% in the opening session after an unexpected dip in German import price inflation at the start of the session. Generally, global bonds are back under pressure as stock market sentiment stabilized during the Asian session and 10-year Treasury rates are up 1.1 bp at 3.1675. The stalled Brexit talks, as well increased spending targets in Italy and now Spain remain in focus as does the fallout from the Bavarian election on the central government in Berlin. The data calendar focuses on UK labour market data as well as German ZEW investor confidence, with the latter expected to fall slightly. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today UK Labour Market Data – Expectations – The UK Unemployment rate is expected to remain flat at 4%, while Average Earnings should increase by 2.8% in August, compared to 2.9% in July. US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Expectations – Industrial Production is expected to have increased by 0.3% in September, and Capacity Utilization to have increased to 78.2% compared to 78.1% in August. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
So, where is the market going in the short term? Is this a "dead cat bounce" or are investors piling back in after the recent setback?
Date : 17th October 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th October 2018. FX News Today Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury and JGB yields gained 0.2 bp each and are trading at 3.165% and 0142% respectively, but despite broad gains on Asian stock markets, Treasuries are down from earlier highs and most government bonds in Asia managed to move higher.Japanese bourses continued to bounce in the wake of the tech stock recovery in the US yesterday, and with earnings from the likes of Goldman Sachs and Netflix adding support. Topix and Nikkei are up 1.35% and 1.05%. The ASX also managed a strong 1.12% gain, but Chinese bourses are underperforming. Hong Kong was closed today. US stock futures are actually posting slight losses, highlighting not only that stocks still have a way to go before they have recouped last week’s losses, but also that sentiment is still fragile as investors struggle with the sharp rise in yields. Markets are now looking ahead to today’s release of the minutes from the last Fed meeting. The local calendar was quiet and Oil prices are trading around the USD 72 per barrel mark, after the unexpected drop in American crude stockpiles and as investors keep a nervous eye on simmering tensions between the US and Saudi Arabia over the missing journalist. For now, Trump seems to be giving Saudi Arabia the benefit of the doubt. FX Action: USDJPY posted a 3-session high at 112.42 before settling around 112.14. AUDJPY posted a 1-week high before ebbing back, while the likes of EURJPY and GBPJPY have remained below their respective highs from yesterday, although also running higher during the Tokyo AM session. The weakness of the Yen has been concomitant with an improvement in risk appetite, with Wall Street closing solidly higher following a tech-led rally founded on encouraging earnings reports and stock markets in Asian, outside of China, following suit. The Nikkei 225 is showing a 1.3% gain, while China’s SSE index is down by 0.7% on nagging concerns about the impact of the US-China trade war. USDJPY has been in a choppy range rooted on the 112.00 level for nearly a week now, consolidating after dropping back from levels near 114.50 in the week before. Fundamentals (yield differentials and the associated contrast between Fed and BoJ policy paths) remain supportive, but the spectre of risk aversion has been an offsetting bearish force. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today UK Sep CPI – Expectations – The UK inflation is anticipated to headline CPI dipping to 2.6% y/y in September from 2.7% in the month prior, with the core CPI figure ebbing to a 2.0% y/y rate from 2.1% in August. EU 27-Summit on Brexit – European Union leaders are expected to meet in Brussels to discuss a possible Brexit deal with Britain, over dinner. Eurozone Sept. HICP – Expectations –The final reading of September Eurozone HICP is unlikely to hold any surprise and confirm the headline rate at 2.1% y/y, above the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability, but mainly due to higher energy and food price inflation. US Sept. Housing starts, Permits & EIA inventories – Expectations – They are forecast to drop 2.5% to 1.250 mln, while permits should rise 2.5% to 1.280 mln. Also slated are MBA mortgage stats. All of the September housing data are at risk for a hit from hurricane Florence. EIA energy inventory data is on tap too. FOMC Meeting Minutes – The FOMC minutes will provide an assessment as regards the views of the Fed’s policymakers about the interest-setter’s future stance. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 24th October 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th October 2018. FX News Today European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are up 1.0 bp at 0.416% in opening trade, versus losses in Treasury and JGB yields, although the US 10-year is up from yesterday’s lows and an early rebound in BTPs is adding pressure on Bunds at the open. Stock market sentiment also started to stabilise during the Asian session, although Chinese markets have already started to erase early gains and while CSI 300 and SSE are still hanging on to gains of 0.42% and 0.51% respectively, the Shenzhen is already back into negative territory. Market sentiment remains cautious then and likely prone to setbacks amid geopolitical tensions and concerns about the impact of tightening financial conditions. Italy’s budget spat with the Commission and Brexit talks will remain in focus. The European data releases today include preliminary PMI readings for the Eurozone, with the manufacturing PMI seen dipping to 53.0 from September’s 53.2, while the services reading is seen falling back to 54.5 from 54.7. The Eurozone also has M3 money supply growth and the UK releases data on mortgage approvals. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today Eurozone manufacturing PMI – Expectations – EMU PMIs are expected to decline to 53.0 from September’s 53.2, while the services reading is seen falling back to 54.5 (median 54.4) from 54.7. US New home sales – Expectations – September new home sales are estimated rising 0.5% to 632k, after bouncing 3.5% in August from declines in the previous two months. BOC Rate Statement – Expectations – A 25 bp hike to 1.75% is widely expected. Also, Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins will hold a press conference from 15:15 GMT. For the whole story read our article. Support and Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 25th October 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th October 2018. FX News Today European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -1.7 bp at 0.376% in opening trade, Treasury yields have fallen back to just over 3.1% in the wake of the ongoing market rout, while 10-year JGBs are down -1.6 bp at 0.105%. US markets wiped out this year’s gains yesterday, Asian stocks markets are also sharply lower, while US futures are stabilising and UK futures are pointing to further losses in Europe. In this environment Draghi is likely to sound cautious at today’s press conference even as the ECB is set to confirm the phasing out of net asset purchases by the end of the year. The rate guidance will likely remain unchanged, with no hike planned until after the summer of 2019 at the earliest. Norges Bank is also expected to keep rates unchanged today, while data releases including the German Ifo survey and the UK CBI retailing survey come with the risk to the downside. Asian Market Wrap: US Treasury yields have moved up slightly from lows and are up 0.4 bp on the day at 3.107%, still considerably below recent highs after yesterday’s tech stock driven rout on US markets was followed by further losses in Asia. JGB yields corrected -1.4 bp and are at 0.107%, after the NASDAQ closed down -4.4% yesterday and U.S. stocks wiped out this year’s gains after mixed earnings reports from the likes of AT&T and Texas Instruments. In Asia Topix and Nikkei dropped -2.8% and -3.5% respectively. The Hang Seng lost nearly 2% so far and Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses wiped out -1.385 and -1.92%, while the ASX declined -2.8%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was pushed deeper into a bear market. Concerns that the earnings momentum is levelling off and that tighter financial conditions, coupled with ongoing trade tensions are hitting the global growth outlook are prompting investors to rethink lofty equity valuations. There are plenty of geopolitical risks from the Kashoggi fallout to the prospect of a fresh arms race between the US and Russia. US futures are marginally higher, leaving some chance that US markets will at least try to stabilise today. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today ECB Interest Rate Decision – Expectations – ECB is not expected to change its interest rate, as per the guidance it has offered in the latest ECB Report. US Durable Goods Orders- Expectations – US Durable Goods Orders excl. Transportation are expected to continue their increase by 0.3%, compared to an increase of 0.1% last month. Pending Home Sales – Expectations – Pending home sales are expected to have decreased by 0.1% compared to a 1.8% decrease last month. Support and Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer:This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 26th October 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th October 2018. FX News Today FX Update: The Yen has traded with a firming bias while the Australian Dollar and other Dollar bloc currencies have underperformed amid fresh risk aversion in global markets. USDJPY has drifted to the lower 112.0s, approaching the 11-day low seen on Wednesday at 111.82, while EURJPY ebbed to a two-month low and AUDJPY to a fresh six-week low, reflecting renewed safe haven demand for the Japanese currency as stock markets in Asia, and U.S. equity index futures, flagged soft revenue and guidance from Amazon and Google. USA500 futures were showing a 0.9% loss, nearly halving the regular-session gain the cash USA00 index saw on Wall Street yesterday. The JPN225, meanwhile, closed 0.4% for the worse. The PBoC set the USDCNY reference rate at 6.9510, the highest fixing since 2016 and up from 6.9492 yesterday. In data, the October Tokyo CPI figure met expectations at 1.5% y/y. EURUSD has found a toehold after printing a two-month low late yesterday at 1.1356 following ECB President Draghi’s dialing down of hawkishness at yesterday’s post-policy meeting press conference. Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -2.1 bp at 3.096%, 10-year JGB yields lost a further -0.3 bp and are at 0.102%. Stock markets started mostly higher during the Asian session after a strong close on Wall Street, but many indices struggled to hang on to gains. U.S. futures are also heading south again as Amazon and Alphabet results dented optimism for tech stocks once again. As of 5:20GMT Topix and Nikkei were down -0.05% and -0.16% respectively. The Hang Seng Was down -0.88%, Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses lost -0.46% and -0.21% while the ASX managed a marginal 0.02% gain. Volatility seems to remain the order of the day amid the multitude of geopolitical risks and amid concerns that earnings have peaked and will increasingly reflect the impact of trade tensions. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today US Real GDP – Expectations – The most important figure on the US is expected to come out at 3.3% at an annualized rate, down from 4.2% last quarter, also on account of the Fed rate hikes and the hurricane season. US Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices – Expectations – The Fed’s favourite inflation measure is expected to remain stable at 2%, right on the Fed target. Draghi Speech – Expectations – The ECB President is expected to speak at the National Bank of Belgium. Support and Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 29th October 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th October 2018. Main Macro Events This Week The hand-off to November may not be a smooth one judging by the recent swings in sentiment and determination by the Fed to continue tightening. US employment data will take top billing with a week to go until the FOMC meeting, though it is expected to bounce back from hurricane-depressed levels. The earnings calendar remains a full one, with potential tricks or treats hiding in the weeds of the corporate reports. And there are midterm elections lurking just ahead. Asia will digest a heavy dose of month-end data from Japan, along with the BoJ meeting, though no change is expected there. China PMIs could highlight slowdown risks in the region as well. Budget struggles in Italy and rising tension with the EU remain in the spotlight, along with the potential for leadership showdowns in Germany and the UK, as Brexit negotiations, terms and approval remain far from certain. Similar to the more cautious tone from ECB’s Draghi, who is facing a lorry load of political risks, BoE MPC is expected to hold its repo and QE settings intact. United States: The markets will absorb a slew of top tier US releases just ahead of the November 7-8 FOMC meeting. Top of the economic calendar will be the October Payrolls report (Friday),estimated to rise 200k, after a hurricane-depressed 134k reading in September. Personal income is expected to reach a 0.3% gain in September (Monday) after a similar pace in the prior two months and in line with the implied gain in wages from the September employment report. Case-Shiller home prices for August are due (Tuesday), along with consumer confidence. MBA mortgage market data (Wednesday)is due, the ADP Employment survey is seen +215k for October vs +230k and the Employment Cost Index (ECI) is expected to rise 0.8% in Q3, shifting up from a gain of 0.6% in Q2. Chicago PMI is seen in a holding pattern (Wednesday) near 60.5 in October. Initial jobless claims are estimated to slip 2k to 213k in the week ended October 27 (Thursday),following a 5k rise to 215k in the week of October 20, while nonfarm productivity is expected to slow to a 2.4% pace in Q3, following a firm 2.9% gain in Q2 that should be revised up to 3.0%. The ISM index is estimated to slip to 59.4 in October (Thursday), from 59.8 in September and a 14-year high of 61.4 in August. Vehicle sales are forecast to slow to a still-strong 17.2 mln pace in October (Thursday), after a 4.5% surge to 17.4 mln in September. Rounding out the week will be trade deficit (Friday), forecast to widen to -$54.1 bln in September from -$53.2 bln and factory orders, expected to rise 0.5% in September, after a 2.4% jump in August. Canada: August GDP (Wednesday) is expected to expand 0.1% (m/m, sa) after the 0.2% gain in July, which would keep growth on track for the 2.0% pace. October employment (Friday) is projected to expand 25.0k after the 63.3k surge in September. The Trade Balance (Friday) is expected at C$0.4 bln from the C$0.5 bln surplus in August. The Industrial Product Price Index for October is due on Wednesday. The Markit Canada manufacturing PMI for October is scheduled for release on Thursday. Bank of Canada Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins appear at the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance (Tuesday). Poloz and Wilkins address the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce (Wednesday). Europe: The data calendar is very busy. Despite the mixed confidence data the flash reading of Eurozone Q3 GDP growth (Tuesday) is expected to come in at 0.4% q/q, unchanged from Q2, largely thanks to a recovery in France. Widespread strike action had cut French GDP growth to just 0.2% q/q in Q2, and with peace restored the economic expansion is expected at 0.4% q/q in Q3, which should help to compensate for the likely weaker number out of Germany, which will be released later in the month. Looking ahead, PMI and Ifo surveys are pointing to weaker conditions in Q4 and against that background, the European Commission’s October ESI Economic Confidence Indicator (Tuesday) is expected to fall back to 110.3 from 110.9 in September. Growth momentum may be slowing, but against that background a further decline is expected in the seasonally adjusted German jobless number of -10K, which should leave the October jobless rate at a record low of 5.1%. The overall Eurozone rate for September (Wednesday) meanwhile is seen falling back to 8.0% (8.1%) from 8.1% in the previous month. Wage growth is also finally picking up, thanks to higher negotiated wages. The preliminary reading of October German HICP (Tuesday) is anticipated to come in at 2.3% y/y, a little faster than September’s 2.2% y/y clip, while overall Eurozone HICP (Wednesday) seen lifting to 2.2% y/y from 2.1% y/y in September. Underlying inflation is also expected to rise as base effects from changes to education charges in Italy that have kept the Italian rate low over the past year, will finally fall out of the equation with the October number. UK: The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee gathers this week for its November meeting (announcing Thursday), where no changes to either the repo rate or QE settings are widely expected. The central bank’s quarterly Inflation Report will provide updated projections on inflation and growth, which are expected to be little changed from the previous report in August. The data calendar this week is busy, featuring September reports from the BoE on lending and money supply (Monday),the October CBI’s distributive sales survey (Tuesday), October Gfk consumer confidence (Wednesday), Markit’s October surveys for Manufacturing and Construction (due Thursday and Friday, respectively). The data carries little market-impacting potential at the current juncture with sentiment formation hinging on Brexit and global events. Japan: BoJ concludes its 2-day meeting on Wednesday, and is expected to keep policy unchanged. Governor Kuroda’s press conference will be monitored for his outlooks and guidance. As for data, September unemployment (Tuesday) is expected steady at 2.4%, while the job offerers /seekers should be unchanged at 1.63. September industrial production (Wednesday) is forecast contracting to a -1.5% y/y clip from 0.2%. October Consumer Confidence, September Housing Starts, and September Construction Orders (Wednesday) round out the month’s reports. The October manufacturing PMI will be released on Thursday, along with October auto sales. Australia: Building approvals (Tuesday) are expected to rebound 6.0% in September after the 9.4% drop in August. CPI (Wednesday) is seen expanding at a 0.6% pace in Q3 (q/q) after the 0.4% rise in Q2. CPI is projected at a 2.0% y/y growth rate in Q3, slowing slightly from the 2.1% clip in Q2. The trimmed mean and weighted median CPI, both measures of “core” inflation, are expected to repeat the 1.9% y/y growth rates seen in Q2. The trade surplus (Thursday) is projected to narrow to A$1,400 mln in September from the A$1,604 mln surplus in August. Retail sales (Friday) are expected to grow 0.4% in September (m/m) after the 0.3% rise in August. The import and export price indexes for Q3 are due Thursday, while Q3 PPI is due Friday. Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor (Financial System) Michele Bullock speaks at the 10th Annual Commonwealth Bank Global Markets Conference in Sydney (Tuesday). New Zealand: The calendar has September building permits (Wednesday). There is nothing from the RBNZ this week. The next meeting is November 8. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 30th October 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th October 2018. FX News Today European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are up 0.4 bp at 0.379% in opening trade, in tandem with but outperforming the rise in long rates in the US and Japan. BTPs continue to outperform at the start of the session. Stock market sentiment picked up in Asia, and US futures are moving higher, although UK futures are heading south and there is still plenty, from Brexit to Italy’s budget spat to the risk of political instability in Germany to cloud over sentiment, although a very busy economic calendar today will also demand attention. Already released French GDP came in at 0.4% q/q, leaving the overall Euro Area number today on course to also come in at 0.4% q/q, unchanged from Q2. German jobless numbers, as well as preliminary HICP inflation are also due, as is the ESI economic sentiment indicator, the Swiss Kof leading indicator and the UK CBI industrial trends survey. Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.5 bp at 3.10% and 10-year JGB rates climbed 1.2 bp to 0.108% as stock market sentiment improved. Comments from US President Trump, who spoke about a “great” deal with China helped to dampen concerns about earlier reports that the US is preparing to put tariffs on all imports from China. Trump also told Fox news that he didn’t think that Beijing was ready for a deal yet, and the Yuan dropped to the lowest level since May 2008 after the PBC cut its daily fixing and amid concerns of a further escalation of the trade war. Shanghai and Shenzhen managed to recoup early losses and charge higher, with indices currently up 1.30% and 1.24% respectively. The Hang Seng underperformed and fell back -0.24%, while Japanese markets got a further boost from a weaker Yen, with Topix and Nikkei up 1.46% and 1.44% respectively. The ASX gained 1.34% and US stock futures are also broadly higher. Oil prices are little changed and the front end Nymex future is trading slightly above USD 67 per barrel. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today Euro Area Real GDP – Expectations – The most important figure of the Euro Area economy is expected to come out at 1.8% y/y, down from 2.1% last quarter on account of higher uncertainty about Italy’s budget, but still very robust. Conference Board Consumer Confidence – Expectations – The CB Index is expected to come out at 136.3 compared to 138.4 last month, suggesting a weak deterioration, albeit still remaining at high levels. Support and Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 30th October 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th October 2018. FX News Today European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are up 0.4 bp at 0.379% in opening trade, in tandem with but outperforming the rise in long rates in the US and Japan. BTPs continue to outperform at the start of the session. Stock market sentiment picked up in Asia, and US futures are moving higher, although UK futures are heading south and there is still plenty, from Brexit to Italy’s budget spat to the risk of political instability in Germany to cloud over sentiment, although a very busy economic calendar today will also demand attention. Already released French GDP came in at 0.4% q/q, leaving the overall Euro Area number today on course to also come in at 0.4% q/q, unchanged from Q2. German jobless numbers, as well as preliminary HICP inflation are also due, as is the ESI economic sentiment indicator, the Swiss Kof leading indicator and the UK CBI industrial trends survey. Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.5 bp at 3.10% and 10-year JGB rates climbed 1.2 bp to 0.108% as stock market sentiment improved. Comments from US President Trump, who spoke about a “great” deal with China helped to dampen concerns about earlier reports that the US is preparing to put tariffs on all imports from China. Trump also told Fox news that he didn’t think that Beijing was ready for a deal yet, and the Yuan dropped to the lowest level since May 2008 after the PBC cut its daily fixing and amid concerns of a further escalation of the trade war. Shanghai and Shenzhen managed to recoup early losses and charge higher, with indices currently up 1.30% and 1.24% respectively. The Hang Seng underperformed and fell back -0.24%, while Japanese markets got a further boost from a weaker Yen, with Topix and Nikkei up 1.46% and 1.44% respectively. The ASX gained 1.34% and US stock futures are also broadly higher. Oil prices are little changed and the front end Nymex future is trading slightly above USD 67 per barrel. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today Euro Area Real GDP – Expectations – The most important figure of the Euro Area economy is expected to come out at 1.8% y/y, down from 2.1% last quarter on account of higher uncertainty about Italy’s budget, but still very robust. Conference Board Consumer Confidence – Expectations – The CB Index is expected to come out at 136.3 compared to 138.4 last month, suggesting a weak deterioration, albeit still remaining at high levels. Support and Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 31st October 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st October 2018. FX News Today Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.3 bp at 3.136%, the 10-year JGB yield is up 0.5 bp at 0.115%. BoJ left policy unchanged and kept the 10-year bond yield target at about zero as the revised forecasts show inflation below target for years to come. Inflation came in lower than expected in Australia, and China’s manufacturing activity is feeling the strain of the trade war with the US and the manufacturing PMI fell back to just 50.2, effectively signalling stagnation. Despite this Asian stock markets moved mostly higher and are bound to end the month on a more positive note, although this is still to be the worst month for global equities in more than 6 years. China’s overnight Repo rate surged amid official efforts to stem bets against the Yuan. Earnings reports remain in focus ahead of Apple results and Friday’s US jobs reports. Buyers may be attracted by cheaper valuations, but trade concerns continue to cloud over sentiment. Topix and Nikkei are up 2.15% and 2.16% respectively, the Hang Seng gained 0.99% and Shanghai and Shenzhen Comp are up 1.26% and 1.48%. The ASX underperformed, but is also up 0.43%, as are US stock futures. European Fixed Income Outlook: December 10-year Bund future opened at 160.20, down from a close of 160.44 yesterday. The 10-year cash yield is up 1.1 bp at 0.378% in opening trade, despite weaker than expected German retail sales data at the start of the session. BTPs are coming back from yesterday’s slump and the reversal of safe haven flows are adding to the general trend of rising yields at the long end as stock markets seem intent on ending a disastrous month on a more positive note. Treasury and JGB yields also moved higher, UK stock futures are rising with US futures after a largely positive session in Asia. Today’s calendar still has Eurozone inflation and labour market data as well as ECB speakers and Spanish GDP numbers. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today Euro CPI and Core – Expectations – Eurozone HICP seen lifting to 2.2% y/y from 2.1% y/y in September. Underlying inflation is also expected to rise as base effects from changes to education charges in Italy that have kept the Italian rate low over the past year, will finally fall out of the equation with the October number. Canadian GDP – Expectations – The August GDP is expected to expand 0.1% (m/m, sa) after the 0.2% gain in July. Crude Oil Inventories – Expectations – It is expected to fall to 3.6M barrels from 6.3M last week. US ADP Employment Change – Expectations – The ADP employment survey is seen +215k for October vs +230k and the Employment Cost Index (ECI) is expected to rise 0.8% in Q3, shifting up from a gain of 0.6% in Q2. Chicago PMI is seen in a holding pattern near 60.5 in October. Support and Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
