Date : 23rd July 2017. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd July 2017. FX News Today European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly moved sideways, fluctuating between gains and losses ahead of the Fed meeting. Asia’s equity benchmark remains near the highest level since 2007, and the ASX managed a nearly 0.9% gain so far, despite a stronger AUD as oil prices moved higher. The Fed is likely to remain on hold this week and could push out further action on rates, but markets are still cautious, with U.S. stock futures also moving sideways, although the FTSE 100 future is managing gains, as the pound retreats. The EUR meanwhile is on the rise again and Mersch’s comments on reflation and his more optimistic view on inflation and growth could also see fresh pressure on Bund futures. The 10-year cash yield already moved up from lows in late trade yesterday and closed above 0.50% and indeed, while Draghi may have been eager to calm nerves ahead of the summer, tapering is still on the agenda for next year. US Data: U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI jumped 1.2 points to 53.2 in the July preliminary print after falling 0.7 points to 52.0 in June. It was 52.9 a year ago. This is a 14th consecutive month of expansion. Also, the bounce breaks a string of declines going back to the start of the year after the gauge hit 55.0 in January, reflecting increased momentum as the second half of the year begins after the slowing in Q1 and Q2. The index hit a recent low of 50.7 in May 2016. The preliminary July services index was unchanged at 54.2 after rising 0.6 points in June 53.6 in May. It was 51.4 a year ago. It’s a 17th straight month of expansion and has been fairly stable in the 53.5 area all year since hitting a high of 55.6 in January. Employment rose to 54.4 from 52.8 previously and is the highest reading since December. Prices charged fell. The flash composite index rose 0.3 points to 54.2 in July from 53.9 in June and is the highest reading since January. It was 51.8 a year ago. Employment and new orders improved. SNB’s Jordan: CHF still significantly overvalued. The central bank head said in an interview with Le Temp, conducted last week and published late yesterday that this means the SNB is sticking with its policy of low interest rates and intervention on forex markets if needed. Jordan added that inflation remains low with production capacity not fully exhausted. He stressed that the central bank still has enough room to manoeuvre to expand the balance sheet if necessary. The USDCHF was relatively unmoved and trades at 0.9464 down from overnight highs of 0.9476 FX Update:. Narrow ranges have been the order of the day so far, with a combo of a dearth of fresh directional cues, summertime thinness, and the looming proximity of the Fed’s policy announcement (tomorrow) fostering a noncommittal market. USDJPY dipped back under 111.00, reflective of a broad though moderate bid in the yen, which has been seen since just after the Tokyo fix. Stock markets in Asia have seen little direction. EURUSD has continued to oscillate around the 1.1650 level for a second day, holding below the 23-month high at 1.1684 that was pegged in the Asia session on Monday. AUDUSD continued to consolidate the sharp gains the pair saw last week. Cable has remained buoyant above 1.3000, though off yesterday’s four-session peak at 1.3058. Main Macro Events Today German Ifo Business Climate – After yesterday’s disappointing July PMI readings, the German Ifo index tomorrow also comes with a risk to the downside. We had been looking for a drop to 114.9 (med same) from 115.1 in the previous month, but the risk is that the headline number comes in even weaker. Like the PMIs, the Ifo reading is likely to remain at high levels, indicating a robust start to Q3, but after what looked like another strong quarterly growth rate in Q2 it seems with regard to survey indicators this may have been as good as it gets. That doesn’t mean the recovery is abandoned or at risk, but the euphoria that seem to hit sentiment in the wake of the Macron victory is giving way to a more sober assessment. The good news though is that the PMIs point to ongoing improvements on labour markets, so companies continue to invest into the recovery and while the data will back Draghi’s reluctance to commit to QE just yet, it is clear that monthly asset purchases will be scaled back with the new program that will start next year. US Consumer Confidence – June Consumer Confidence is expected to fall to 117.0 from 118.9, this compares to a low of 25.3 in February of 2009. Forecast risk: downward, given the decrease in the Michigan headline and Market risk: downward, as weaker data could impact rate hike timelines. Confidence continues to benefit from reduced gasoline prices and is now experiencing a post-election lift. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Visit Website to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Senior Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 26th July 2017. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th July 2017. FX News Today European Outlook: Positive leads from the U.S., including corporate earnings, and broad-based gains in commodities helped the global stock move higher to continue in Asia overnight at least in the first part of the session. The CSI 300 is in the red, however, and the Hang Seng underperforming with a meagre 0.17% gain, and Japanese markets are down from early highs while FTSE 100 and U.S. stock futures are in the red. So, some caution is settling in again ahead of the Fed announcement today with some speculation that the Fed could announce the start of quantitative tightening as early as today. In Europe, the ECB is still far away from reducing its balance sheet, and while QE tapering is on the cards for 2018, Nowotny yesterday argued against committing to an end to asset purchases. Today’s calendar focuses on the first reading of Q2 GDP from the U.K, while all eyes will be on the Fed’s post FOMC meeting announcement and guidance. The big question is whether the central bank will detail plans to unwind QE, though we think not as inflation data has been benign and there hasn’t been any rhetorical prepping by members for such a policy shift since the issue was brought up at the June policy meeting. Australia: Earlier today, the Aussie dollar took a rap following sub-forecast CPI data out of Australia, which came in at 1.9% y/y in Q2 versus the median forecast for 2.2% y/y, while the underlying rate remained stubbornly below the RBA’s target range. AUDUSD is just off its lows, at 0.7884 bid presently, showing a 0.7% decline on the day as the London interbank market take to their seats. The Aussie is showing a similar magnitude of decline versus the yen and euro, too. U.S. reports: revealed upside July surprises for both consumer confidence and the Richmond Fed, alongside a firm but largely seasonal 0.8% May rise for the S&P Case Shiller. For consumer confidence, we say a July pop to 121.1 from 117.3 (was 118.9) that left this measure at its strongest level since the 16-year high of 124.9 in March, with a rise in the current conditions index to a 147.8 new cycle-high, despite drops in other July confidence measures. For Richmond Fed, we saw a rise to 14.0, after revisions that lifted recent levels to 11.0 (was 7.0) in June and 3.0 (was 1.0) in May, versus a 7-year high of 19.0 (was 17.0) in February. This increase bucked declines in other producer sentiment measures, though the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys should still tick down to 55 in July from 56 in June, 55 in May, 56 in April, and a 57 cycle-high in February and March. Nevertheless, yesterday U.S. Senate voted to move ahead on repealing Obamacare. Initially fifty GOP senators voted yes, with two voting no, for a total of 50, while not a Democrat voted for the measure. Hence Vice president Mike Pence as Reuters reported, forced to cast the tie-breaking vote. The EURUSD had retreated from 1.1712 highs, after failing to take out the August 2015 high of 1.1714. Profit taking out of London had reportedly been in play, with the pairing dipping to 1.1657 lows. ECB’s Nowotny against committing to end date for QE: Nowotny said in an interview yesterday that he considers it “wise to step of the gas slowly”, adding that “the U.S. central bank also implemented tapering without committing to a definite timetable”. The QE program currently runs until the end of the year and the ECB iw widely expected to reduce monthly purchase targets again with a follow up program, but Nowotny’s comments suggest that the ECB may not yet lay out a full-time table for a final end to QE and indeed given Draghi’s very cautious stance so far, it seems more likely that the ECB won’t commit to a fixed data for the end of QE. The IMf also urged the ECB to maintain stimulus as underlying inflation and wage growth remains weak and with inflation expected to ease again next year, Draghi seems to have room for a gradual approach. German Jul Ifo index unexpectedly jumped to 116.0 from 115.2. Expectations had been for a slight correction in the headline reading, especially after Monday’s disappointing PMI readings. The breakdown showed that the overall improvement was entirely due to a sharp rise in the current conditions indicator, while the more forward-looking expectations index stagnated. So the message is not unlike that of the PMIs, which showed ongoing robust growth, but a slowdown in the pace of expansion. A strong German Ifo figure, upbeat ECBspeak and the release of the BoJ minutes from the mid-June meeting all failed to stir markets, with participants looking to tomorrow’s policy announcement and communication from the Fed as the next key risk event. The yen has been following its often-seen inverse correlation with global stock markets, which have been mostly buoyant this week, underpinned by incoming corporate earnings and guidance, yesterday’s record print in the latest German Ifo indicator, and expectations for the Fed to affirm its slow-go approach to tightening following the conclusion of the FOMC meeting today. The minutes from the BoJ’s mid-June policy meeting, released yesterday, meanwhile showed that members discussed the idea of QE tempering, but were still worried about the persistence of well below target inflation. Main Macro Events Today FOMC – FOMC began day 1 of its 2day meeting. No major changes are expected in Wednesday’s announcement (14 ET). The Fed is widely expected to leave its 1.00% to 1.25% rate band in place due to the slowing in inflation. Committee members have also indicated they want more evidence of a pick-up in growth after the disappointing 1.4% Q1 pace, though recent data should be fulfilling that need. US Home sales, MBA & EIA – The MBA mortgage market indices are due today, along with the EIA energy inventory report and new home sales may decrease 2.5% to a 595k pace in June, down from 610k in May. UK GDP – The calendar features the first release of Q2 GDP, which expected to rise 0.3% q/q and by 1.7% y/y, which would follow respective Q1 figures of 0.2% and 2.0%. The quarterly pace of growth likely remained relatively lackluster in Q1 compared to growth in the Eurozone and the U.S., and the same picture looks likely to be painted again this quarter. Weakness in sterling following the Brexit vote last June has fed a secular rise in UK inflation, which in turn has eroded household incomes and consumer spending, which in recent years of government austerity has been the main driver of the economy. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 27th July 2017. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th July 2017. FX News Today European Outlook: The Fed’s reluctance to commit to a time for QT beyond “relatively soon” and the fact that the Fed appeared to be moderately more concerned that the decline in inflation pressures could be a little more durable than previously thought has given bond as well as stock markets a fresh boost. Equities moved mostly higher in Asia overnight (China’s CSI 300) once again a notable exception, with commodities still underpinned as oil prices hold clearly above USD 48 per barrel. Bund futures already jumped higher in after hour trade yesterday and European stock futures are rising in tandem with U.S. futures, pointing to broad gains on European markets at the start. ECB’s Nowotny may have repeated his support for reduced asset purchases again, but that the ECB will start to taper next year is pretty much expected and Nowotny yesterday urged caution when the ECB starts to “take the foot of the gas”. Today’s calendar has Eurozone M3 and the U.K. CBI distributive trade survey. German GfK consumer confidence surges to record high of 10.8 from 10.6 in the previous month. The unexpected jump higher ties in with record Ifo readings and confirms that the German recovery remains firmly on track. More arguments for the ECB to take the “foot off the gas” and reduce monthly asset purchases. The full GfK breakdown, which is only available until July showed also falling price expectations though, alongside improved economic confidence and the willingness to buy dipped despite a sharp drop in the willingness to save. Hence, some mixed signals and somethings for the doves, who continue to fret about low inflation and wage growth. FOMC: held rates steady and gave no firm date on the balance sheet unwind. However, the policy statement did indicate the run-off will begin “relatively soon,” versus this year in the June statement, though it basically reiterated comments from Fed Chair Yellen in her recent testimony. The decision was unanimous. The Fed said the economy has been rising moderately while job gains have been “solid.” On inflation, the Fed said overall and core prices have “declined and are running below 2 percent; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.” Inflation developments will continue to be monitored “closely.” One important change versus the June statement was the elimination of word “recently,” referring to the decline in inflation, suggesting there’s some concern the weakening will be more long lasting. U.S. reports: revealed rise in MBA mortgage market index at 0.4%, alongside a 2.2% drop in the purchase index and a 3.4% rise in the refinancing index for the week ended July 21. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate sank 5 basis points to 4.17% after yields drifted lower last week with Europe. Also, U.S. new home sales edged up 0.8% to 0.610 mln in June. That follows the 4.9% rebound to 0.605 mln in May after the 9.6% April drop to 0.577, for a net -27k revision. New home sales hit a cycle high of 0.638 mln in March amid mild winter weather and hopes for Trump stimulus. The months’ supply of homes moved up to 5.4 from 5.3. The median sales price declined 4.2% to $310,800 following the 4.8% rise to $324,300 in May. Prices are down 3.4% y/y in June versus a 9.6% y/y gain previously. Main Macro Events Today US Durable goods, Jobless claims – Durable goods orders are forecast to snap back 3.0% in June vs -0.8% in May, while the advanced trade gap may narrow to-$65 bln from -$66.3 bln and initial jobless claims are set to rebound 8k to 241k for the week ended July-22. UK CBI distributive trade & Gfk – The distributive trades report is expected to fall to a reading of 10% in the headline realized sales figure after 12% in June.The GfK Group Consumer Confidence index is expected to fall to a reading of -11 after -10 in June. Japanese Data – The calendar features the CPI data. June national prices are seen unchanged at 0.4% overall, and same for a core basis. June unemployment is seen falling a tenth to 3.0%, while the job offers/seekers ratio is expected at 1.50 from 1.49. June personal income and PCE are due, with the latter forecast to have risen 0.6% y/y from -0.1% previously. Lastly, June retail sales are penciled in at a 0.1% y/y rate from -0.6% for larger retailers, and up 2.3% y/y from 2.1% overall.. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Visit Website to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 28th July 2017. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th July 2017. FX News Today European Outlook: Risk appetite turned negative during the Asian session, with equity markets, including U.S. index futures, turning lower from record highs. This backdrop will likely put pressure on EGB yields from the open. The European calendar today features a flood of data releases, highlighted by advance Q2 GDP figures out of France and Spain, and preliminary inflation figures for July from various key economies out of the Eurozone, which will be a big focus for markets given the ECB’s course to taper QE. French HICP is expected unchanged at 0.8% y/y, and German HICP is seen at holding at 1.5% y/y, which would also be unchanged from the previous month. Data in line with our expectations would not likely elicit much market reaction. The Eurozone also has the latest business climate survey for July, where the headline is expected at 100.9, down from 111.1 in the previous month. FX Update: The Swiss franc tumbled for a four-straight session, driving EURCHF to a 1.1363 high, a level not seen since the SNB abandoned its former 1.2000 floor in January 2015. USDCHF, meanwhile, rallied to a one-month peak, at 0.9721. The price action affirms the sentiment sea-change that’s been afoot this week, underpinned by a combo of a more confident euro outlook coupled with a -0.75% deposit rate in Switzerland. Elsewhere, EUR-USD has been playing a narrow range in the upper 1.16s, roughly a big figure below the 30-month high that was seen yesterday at 1.1776. USDJPY settled back near 111.00, a level that has seemingly been exerting gravitation pull over the last week or so, with attempted rebounds failing to sustain during the week. The six-week low seen on Monday at 1110.62 remains in the frame. A tumble in equity markets, with Asian bourses and U.S. equity index futures down today, provided the yen some support. A flood of data out of Japan were mostly encouraging, though CPI remained low, with the BoJ-monitored core figure coming in at just 0.4% y/y, unchanged from May and meeting the median forecast. U.S. reports: revealed upside surprises for the durable goods and advance indicators reports for trade and inventories that boosted Q2 GDP estimates to 3.0% from 2.6%, though another lofty initial claims reading suggests that auto retooling is unlikely to boost this year’s July data. For durables, we saw a 6.5% June orders pop thanks to a 19.0% Boeing-led transportation orders surge, though we saw a 0.2% ex-transportation rise that tracked estimates. The report was robust thanks to strong equipment data. For the advance indicators, we saw an export-led $1.0 bln upside June trade surprise and big 0.6% June gains for both wholesale and retail inventories. Initial claims rose 10k to 244k in the fourth week of July, leaving what is now a 242k July average, following similar prior averages of 243k in June, 241k in May, and 243k in April. The July nonfarm payroll forecast remains at approximately 190k. Main Macro Events Today U.S. GDP & ECI – The first release on Q2 GDP is out today and should reveal a 2.6% headline for the quarter following a 1.4% pace in Q1. Consumption looks poised for stronger growth during the quarter and expected a 1.2%, up from 2.4% in Q1. Q2 employment cost data expected at 0.6% headline that follows a 0.8% clip in Q1. This would have the y/y pace of growth at 2.3%, down from 2.4% in Q1. Wages and salaries as well as benefit costs are both expected to expand at a 0.5% clip for the quarter from 0.8% and 0.7% respectively in Q1. Prel. German Inflation – Eurozone inflation remains far below the ECB’s definition of price stability and July preliminary HICP readings from Germany, France and Spain are likely to indicate that this won’t change soon. We see headline readings unchanged from June at 1.5% y/y in Germany, 0.8% y/y in France and 1.6% y/y in Spain, which would point to a steady Eurozone reading (due next week) of 1.3% in July. Canada GDP – GDP is expected to improve 0.2% m/m in May after the 0.2% improvement in April. An 1.1% rise in May retail sales volumes followed a 1.1% rise in manufacturing volumes. There was a 0.8% gain in wholesale shipment volumes during May. But housing starts tumbled to 195.0k in May from 214.8k in April, suggestive of a negative contribution from construction. The outlook for mining, oil and gas production is negative. Energy export values fell 9.0% m/m in May after growing 3.9% m/m in in April. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Visit Website to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 31st July 2017. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st July 2017. FX News Today A lot has been digested in recent weeks, including monetary policy decisions, a plethora of earnings reports, data, and supply, with geopolitics thrown in for good measure. Stocks have generally focused on the positives of continued central bank largess, generally bullish earnings news, and signs of improved economic activity, and they’ve left core indexes at or near record highs. There were no surprises from the recent FOMC and ECB policy decisions. Rates were left unchanged with QE kept intact, for now. Of the three central bank meetings this week, with the BoE, RBA, and RBI, steady to easier policy is expected. That should continue to underpin bonds and stocks near term. United States: This will be another busy week in the U.S. as August begins. Earnings will remain a factor ahead after strength the Blue Chips boosted the Dow to yet another record peak, though surprising weakness in tech shares and disappointing reports from FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google) shares rattled the NASDAQ. For the month-to-date, however, core Wall Street indexes are between 2% and 3.8% higher. As for data, another employment report is at hand and it will be closely monitored since it will help determine the start time for quantitative tightening, QT. Strong numbers will increase the risk that QT is announced at the next FOMC meeting on September 20, 21. July nonfarm payrolls (Friday) are expected to show a 182k following the better than expected 222k June gain, with the unemployment rate dipping again to 4.3% from 4.4%. Average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% (median 0.3%) versus the prior 0.2%. The workweek is expected to dip back to 34.4 (median 34.5) from 34.5. The as-expected acceleration in Q2 GDP to a 2.6% growth clip supports forecasts of decent job gains. Earnings will be a focus as the inflation aspect is important for the Fed view. Other major reports this week include the July manufacturing ISM (Tuesday), estimated dipping to 55.5 (median 56.4) after jumping a surprising 2.9 points to 57.8 in June, which was the highest since the August 2014. The nonmanufacturing ISM (Thursday) is also expected to slide to 56.8 in July after rising 0.5 points to 57.4 last month. June personal income and consumption (Tuesday) will help fine tune the GDP outlook. We’re forecasting a 0.4% income gain (median 0.4%), with spending up 0.1% (median 0.1%). July vehicle sales will provide more clues on spending. Domestic car sales (Tuesday) are seen at a 4.5 mln pace (median 4.5 mln), with trucks at 8.5 mln (median 8.6 mln). Canada: releases are due this week with the July employment and June trade numbers reported (Friday). We expect employment to rise 25.0k in July after the 45.3k gain in June. The unemployment rate is projected at 6.5% in July, matching June. A widening in the trade deficit to -C$1.3 bln in June from -C$1.1 bln in May is projected. A 0.5% m/m gain in exports is seen following the 1.3% rise in May, as the tumble in crude oil prices weighs on the value of Canada’s total exports. The IPPI (Monday) is projected to fall 0.6 m/m in July after the 0.2% decline in May, as weaker energy and commodity prices and a sharp firming in the value of the loonie relative to the greenback drive the index lower. The Markit manufacturing PMI for July is due Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted Ivey PMI for July (Friday) is expected to improve to 63.0 from 61.6 in June. Europe: This week’s round of data releases are likely to confirm the picture of robust growth, but still low inflation. Data have confirmed that the Eurozone recovery remained relatively robust in the second quarter and we expect official Q2 Eurozone GDP numbers (Tuesday) to show a quarterly growth rate of 0.6% q/q (median 0.6%), unchanged from Q1. Though these are backward looking numbers, the upcoming round of July confidence indicators (to be completed with the final PMI readings) suggest that momentum remained strong at the start of Q3. We expect the final manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) to be confirmed at the preliminary 56.8 (median 56.8) and the services reading (Thursday) at 55.4, leaving both sectors firmly in expansion mode. Confidence data aside, German manufacturing orders growth (Friday) has remained robust and we are looking for another solid June number, even if the quarterly rate is likely to have fallen back to 0.3% m/m (median 0.5%) from 1.0% m/m in May. Against that background, we expect the German seasonally adjusted jobless total (Tuesday) for July to have dropped a further -2K (median -6K), which would leave the sa jobless number unchanged at a very low 5.7%. The overall Eurozone unemployment rate for June meanwhile (Monday) is seen falling to 9.2% (median 9.2%) from 9.3% in May. UK: The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee meets this week (announcing Thursday), and the central bank will also release its quarterly Inflation Report with revised growth and inflation projections. Three of the then eight members voted for a 25bp hike in the repo rate at the last meeting in June (there are normally nine members, but one position was then temporarily vacant), and we expect a 6-3 vote spilt this time around in favor to leave interest rates unchanged (the same as the median expectation). With June CPI having undershot expectations, at 2.6% y/y after 2.9% y/y in May, and with concerns about the health of the key consumer sector, more dovish arguments will likely continue to prevail. There is risk of a downward nudge in growth forecasts in the Inflation Report, too, while inflation projections are likely to remain near unchanged. The data calendar this week is highlighted by the Markit PMI surveys for July. The manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) is expected to hold at a near steady 54.4 reading after 54.3 in June. The construction PMI (Wednesday) is seen at 54.3 after 548 in the prior month, and the services PMI is anticipated to lift fractionally to a 53.6 reading after 53.4 in June. In-line data would affirm that activity in all three sectors covered by the surveys is continuing to expand, albeit at a relatively less robust pace relative to the last year or two. China: July CFLP manufacturing PMI (Monday) is expected to slip to 51.5 from 51.7, while the Caixin/Markit series (Tuesday) is forecast at 50.2 from 50.4. The July services PMI (Thursday) is estimated rising to 51.8 from 51.6. The markets remain optimistic on China’s growth outlook. Japan: Industrial production report (Monday), which we expect will come in at a 5.0% y/y pace, slowing from the 6.5% in May. June housing starts (Monday) are penciled in at -0.3% y/y, unchanged from May. June construction orders are also due Monday. July manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) should improve to 52.5 from 52.4. July auto sales are also on tap Tuesday. July consumer confidence (Wednesday) is expected to dip to 43.2 from 43.3 in June. July services PMI is due Thursday. Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia meeting is center stage (Tuesday). We expect no change to the current 1.50% policy setting. The RBA also releases the Statement on Monetary Policy (Friday). Economic data is relatively abundant this week. Building approvals (Wednesday) are seen rising 3.0% in June after the 5.6% drop in May. The trade surplus (Thursday) is seen narrowing to A$2.0 bln in June from the A$2.5 bln surplus in May. Retail sales (Friday) are projected to edge 0.1% higher in June after the 0.6% m/m rise in May. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Senior Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 1st August 2017. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st August 2017. FX News Today European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved higher, with a rally in banks underpinned by earnings reports and helping to offset pressure on exporters and automakers. The ASX outperformed after the RBA left rates on hold and warned the strong currency will impact growth and inflation.100 and U.S. stock futures are also moving higher. The FTSE already managed to rescue slight gains into the close yesterday, while Eurozone markets mostly ended in the red. With the EUR above 1.18 against the dollar and political pressure on German carmakers mounting, the DAX is likely to continue to struggle. Bund yields ended little changed yesterday, while Gilt yields climbed ahead of tomorrow’s BoE announcement and positive sentiment on stock markets should keep core yields underpinned. Eurozone spreads narrowed as peripheral markets outperformed, so at least so far Draghi is managing to keep tapering nerves under control. Today’s local calendar has final Eurozone manufacturing PMI readings for July which are not expected to bring any revisions and German Jul jobless numbers. Preliminary Eurozone Q2 GDP is seen steady at 0.6% q/q and the calendar also has the U.K. manufacturing PMI for July. FX Action: USDJPY has eased to new trend lows after reports that newly minted White House communications director Scaramucci is out of a job after just 10-days. The pairing fell under 110.00, before recovering to 110.20. The EURUSD continues to edge higher to north of 1.1830. Initial market take is the U.S. administration is off the rails, though the W.H. staff move may ultimately be a positive, perhaps indicating that new Chief of Staff Kelly is in charge. US Data Yesterday: U.S. Chicago PMI dropped 6.8 points to 58.9 in July, more than giving back the surprising 6.3 point jump to 65.7 in June. The latter was the highest since the 66.1 from May 2014. The 2017 low is 50.3 from January. The index was at 51.8 in October. The 3-month moving average edge up to 61.3 from 61.1. U.S. pending home sales index bounced 1.5% to 110.2 in June, better than expected, after tumbling 0.7% to from 108.6 in May (revised from 108.5). The high for the year was hit in February at 112.3 with the low at 106.4 from January (with the cycle high at 113.6 on April 2016 and a low of 76.4 from June 2010). The index is still well off the all-time peak of 127.0 from July 2005. Lack of inventory remains a problem. On an annual basis, the index is up 0.7% y/y, the same as in May. U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index rose 1.8 points to 16.8 in July after sliding 2.2 points to 15.0 in June. The latter was the weakest since the 12.5 in November. Note that the index was at 0.6 in October and had been basically in negative territory from January 2015 through September 2016. It hit a cycle high of 24.5 in February. Main Macro Events Today Eurozone Q2 GDP – The preliminary reading of Q2 GDP is expected to show a quarterly growth rate of 0.6% q/q, unchanged from the previous quarter. Consumption remains supportive for growth as the labour market continues to recover and low inflation is underpinning real disposable income. At the same time investment is starting to pick up as spare capacity shrinks and PMI readings, while starting to level off, suggests still high orders and a backlog of work. So a robust start to the third quarter that underpins the ECB’s cautious move towards exit steps, although remaining risks and modest wage growth mean Draghi is still keeping his options open for now. U.S. Manufacturing ISM – The July ISM is expected to tick up to 55.5 from 57.8 in June. Forecast risk: upward, given strong component data in early month sentiment. Market risk: downward, as weakening in data could impact rate hike timelines. The ISM has shown a recent high of 60.0 in February ’11 and a low of 33.1 in December of 2008. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Visit Website to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Senior Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 2nd August 2017. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd August 2017. FX News Today European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved mostly higher overnight, after positive leads from Wall Street and Europe, which managed broad gains. The ASX, which outperformed yesterday, dropped against the trend, as oil, iron ore and base metals dropped and commodity stocks came under pressure. Earnings reports from Apple and Honda among others underpinned markets. In Europe the DAX finally managed to outperform amid a buoyant market as economic data in Europe and the U.S. dampened tightening concerns, and FTSE 100 futures are rising further in tandem with U.S. futures, while the Bund futures, which rose in tandem with the DAX yesterday, extended gains in after hour trade. European indices remain below recent highs, leaving room to catch up with the surge in the Dow Jones. Still, central bank concerns as well as geopolitical risks and Trump’s challenges all mean investors reserve a degree of caution. Released overnight, the U.K. BRC shop price index dropped -0.4%. Still to come are Eurozone producer prices, the U.K. Construction PMI and the Swiss manufacturing PMI. The BoE starts its meeting ahead of tomorrow’s announcement. FX Action: The dollar majors have traded mixed so far today in relatively narrow ranges. One mover of note has been USDCAD, which has lifted to a 12-day high at 1.2586, with the pair in process of constructing its biggest rebound since early May. A drop in oil prices, with the WTI benchmark tumbling today below $49.0, which continued yesterday’s correction from the 10-week highs seen above $50.0, provided a cue to put the squeeze on Canadian dollar long positions. USDJPY rebounded to near 111.00 after briefly foraying below the 110.00 level yesterday, leaving a seven-week low at 109.93. A bullish tone in global equity markets, propelled by encouraging earnings reports from bellwether companies, has weighed on the yen. EURUSD has remained in a fairly tight range below the 30-month high it saw on Monday at 1.1846, and has seen good demand on dips under 1.1800. AUDUSD edged out a two-session low at 0.7941, weighed on by a drop in commodity prices. US Data Yesterday: revealed a weak trajectory for personal income into mid-year following big downward revisions already revealed in last week’s GDP report, leaving a remarkably steep decline in the savings rate to just 3.8% in June. We also saw a big 1.3% June construction spending plunge led by a 5.4% public construction decline after big downward revisions. The mix lowered our GDP estimates to 2.4% from 2.6% in Q2, and to 3.3% from 3.5% in Q3. Consumption mostly tracked estimates, with modest overshoots to the chain price data, and incoming auto data suggest a 2% y/y vehicle sales rise to a 16.7 mln pace. We saw a surprisingly firm 56.3 ISM figure for July, though this marked a decline from a 3-year high of 57.8 in June. The income, retail sales, payroll, and inventory data remain remarkably weak in 2017, though the factory, industrial production, confidence and sentiment data remain strong. Main Macro Events Today ADP Numbers – The ADP private payroll number for July today is expected to show an increase of 187,000 from 158,000 last month. Crude Oil Inventories – The weekly EIA official inventories are expected to show a drawdown of 3.2 million barrels from last week’s significant 7.2 million barrels. However, yesterday the US fuel inventories actually rose unexpectedly, and USOil prices fell over 1% from the psychological $50.00 level. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Visit Website to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Senior Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 3rd August 2017. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd August 2017. FX News Today European Outlook: Asian stock markets pulled back from recent highs, with investors assessing the flood of earnings reports and for now holding back ahead of the next batch. The MSCI Asia Pacific retreated from the highest level since December 2017 and U.S. stock futures are also heading south, although FTSE 100 futures are higher ahead of the BoE announcement. The BoE is widely expected to keep rates on hold even if there are likely to remain a couple of dissenters and the inflation report could bring a slight downward revision to growth projections. Gilt yields still picked up yesterday, and the 10-year gained 2.3 bp while the Bund yield fell back -0.6 bp as Eurozone spreads widened. Some caution then in U.K. markets ahead of the announcement, although at least U.K. stocks seem to be on course to recover yesterday’s losses. The calendar has services PMI readings from the U.K. and the Eurozone as well as the ECB’s economic bulletin. FX Action: EURUSD has settled lower after hitting a new 31-month high at 1.1910 after the London interbank close yesterday. The pair has since ebbed under 1.1850, opening in London with a softening bias. EURCHF has seen a similar price action, also hitting a 31-month peak yesterday, at 1.1524, before coming off the boil. Ditto for EURJPY, which made a 19-month peak 131.40. The new highs are the culmination of a rally the common currency has been seeing for most of the year, one which has accelerated over the last month or so. The euro had been trading at a discount since the Eurozone financial crisis erupted in 2010, in the face of existential threats and struggling member economies. Reserve and forex fund managers are now viewing the euro has having come through the woods, at least to a significant enough degree. Key currency today remains the GBP with risk of selling pressure following a no-change announcement , and downgrades to growth and inflation. I remain long EURGBP to 0.9000. Fedspeak: Williams, September might be appropriate for an announcement on the start of the balance sheet unwind, He also said the median dot plot path (1 more hike in 2017 and 3 in 2018) still makes sense. He’s frustrated with the low rates of inflation but said the trend is still positive. The decline in the dollar isn’t a big factor in the inflation outlook. And he suggested the economy might need to slow a bit to keep price pressures in check. The gist of these comments suggests the markets might be too complacent with respect to another tightening this year. Fed funds futures are only showing about a 38% chance for one more hike this year. Rosengren hinted at a September balance sheet announcement, according to statements in a WSJ interview, where he said the markets are appropriately anticipating such. He added that the tight job market justifies rate hike plans as well. There is “reasonable risk” that the unemployment rate falls below 4% over the next two years. Mester supports gradual rate hikes despite weak inflation, reiterating her views on the topic. She views inflation weakness as due to “special factors” (drop in cost of prescription drugs and cell phone services) and not a general downtrend, but it may take a couple months to see an uptick in prices. Mester sees three rate hikes per year as appropriate to avoid overheating and reaching for yield, and anticipates further hikes and bond run-off as the economy grows “somewhat above 2%.” Bullard said he’s concerned over soft inflation, and added he does not support further rate hikes at this point. “I think for now we should remain on pause,” he said, waiting for data evidence of a turnaround in inflation. Further tightening at this point would likely “inhibit” prices from moving up toward the 2% target. Bullard is not a voter this year and this is not a new position for him. Main Macro Events Today BoE – Three of the then eight MPC members voted for a 25bp hike in the repo rate at the last meeting in June (there are normally nine members, but one position was then temporarily vacant), and expectations are for 6-3 vote spilt this time around in favour to leave interest rates unchanged. With June CPI having undershot expectations, at 2.6% y/y after 2.9% y/y in May, and with concerns about the health of the key consumer sector, more dovish arguments will likely continue to prevail. There is risk of a downward nudge in growth forecasts in the Inflation Report, too, while inflation projections are likely to remain near unchanged. Carney in the press conference afterwards is always an interesting follow up. The data is at 11.00 GMT with the Governor on 30 minutes later. Initial Jobless – The weekly Initial jobless claims for the week of July 29 and should post a 238k headline, down from 244k last week but above the 234k headline in the week preceding that. Claims in July are poised to average 243k, steady from June and above the 241k average in May. U.S. Factory Orders – June factory goods should reveal a 2.7% increase for orders with shipments unchanged and inventories up 0.2% for the month. This follows May figures which had orders down 0.5%, shipments up 0.2% and inventories down 0.1% in that month. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Visit Website to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Senior Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 4th August 2017. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th August 2017. FX News Today European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded narrowly mixed overnight, with investors eying U.S. politics and jobs data. Hong Kong posted gains, after better than expected profits from Suzuki Motor Corp. While Commonwealth Bank of Australia weighed on the Asian index after accusations of a breach of money laundering laws. Oil prices are slightly down on the day and below the USD 49 per barrel mark. FTSE 100 futures are down, after the BoE induced rally yesterday, while U.S. futures are narrowly mixed. The BoE announcement, which saw a lower number of dissenters and downward revisions to growth and inflation forecasts saw European yields heading south, led by a sharp drop in the Gilt, but the BoE maintained its tightening bias and warned that little more growth may be needed to prompt a rate hike. So not as dovish a message as headlines suggested and there could be a correction along the line. Deputy BOE Governor has reiterated the MPC’s position on the BBC this morning. Cable 1.3140, EURGBP 0.9040 (39 week highs). German manufacturing orders stronger than expected: Orders rose 1.0% m/m, while May was revised up slightly to 1.1% m/m from 1.0% m/m. The annual rate jumped to 5.2% y/y from 3.9% y/y. Expectations had been for a more muted uptick and the stronger than expected number at Domestic capital goods orders, a gauge for future investment, rebounded strongly from a drop in May and were up 7.5% m/m. Overall domestic orders rose 5.1% m/m, after falling in the previous month, while foreign orders inflow remains volatile on a monthly basis and fell -2.0% m/m, after rising 2.2% m/m. With most of the decline due to a drop in orders from other Eurozone countries, the strong EUR is not to blame, however. FX Update: The dollar majors have been plying narrow ranges for the most part. EUR-USD held in the upper 1.18s, below the 31-month high logged midweek at 1.1910, and Cable settled in the mid 1.31s, consolidating the sharp losses seen yesterday in the wake of the BoE’s guidance yesterday, which largely kicked expectations for a 25 bp rate hike into 2018. USD-JPY’s downtrend re-asserted, with the pair logging a new six-week low at 109.84 during the Tokyo session, which by our data surpassed the low seen in late New York trade yesterday by 1 pip. Japanese data today included a big miss in June wages data, but, as is often the case, to little impact on the yen. AUD-USD remained buoyant, despite the RBA’s SMP noting that a further exchange rate appreciation would lower both economic growth and inflation, though Australian June retail sales beat expectations, rising 0.3% m/m. Market participants have been hunkered down ahead of today’s U.S. July payrolls release. Main Macro Events Today US Employment – July employment data should post a 185k (median 182k) headline following a 222k headline in June and 152k in May. There is still upside risk to the report from the strength in the mining and factory sectors that’s also shown up in firm producer sentiment figures during the first half of the year. The tight ADP number on Wednesday offers caution to the upside risk. Canadian Employment – It is expected to rise 25k in July after the 45.2k gain in June. Canada employment has been on an uptrend since August of last year as the economy expands. Expectations are for an annual average weekly earnings growth to expand at a 1.3% y/y pace in July, matching the 1.3% growth rates in May and June. While that would again be above the multi-year low 0.7% pace in April, it would still leave a historically tame pace for compensation growth. The unemployment rate is expected at 6.5% in July, matching June. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Website Visit to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Senior Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 7th August 2017. THE ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD. Main Macro Events This Week The July U.S. employment report provided some solace for the Fed on the growth front, but no major smoking gun on inflation. Headline payrolls growth came in a hair above expectations, with small net tweaks on back revisions. Hours worked were steady but were up from May, though average hourly earnings came in a little hot. The jobless rate ticked down once again and gave the Fed some more surety in nominal terms that it is getting closer to full employment even as the participation rate ticked up. United States: Consumer credit is forecast to increase $17.0 bln in June (Monday) amid upside risk. NFIB small business optimism and JOLTS job openings (Tuesday) will be mulled. MBA mortgage market data is due (Wednesday), along with Q2 productivity (preliminary) seen rising 0.5% right in line with unit labor costs and wholesale trade seen rising 0.5% alongside a 0.6% gain in inventories. Initial jobless claims are forecast to dip 2k to 238k (Thursday) for the week ended August 5, while July PPI may rise 0.1% or 0.2% ex-food and energy. The Treasury budget gap is set to narrow to -$65.0 bln in July from -$90.2 bln, which was a big blowout in June. The week will round out with the July CPI event, seen rising 0.2% headline and 0.1% core for a tame 1.7% y/y core reading. Fedspeak returns with a flurry of activity this week starting (Monday) with Bullard and dissenter Kashkari. Dudley will open and take part in a panel discussion on New York economic trends (Thursday). Kaplan will take part in a Q&A session (Friday) and Kashkari will be back to do the same at a community bankers conference. The earnings season is dying down, though there are still several heavy-weights ahead. Generally solid reports have helped the Dow climb over the 22,000 level, and to eight straight record closes. Canada: The holiday truncated week is heavy on housing data. July housing starts (Tuesday) are expected to fall to 200.0k from the 213.2k annual pace in June. A 5.0% m/m drop in the value of building permits during June (Wednesday) is seen following the 8.9% gain in May. The new house price index (Thursday) is projected to rise 0.4% m/m in June after the 0.7% bounce in May. There is nothing scheduled from the Bank of Canada this week. Our projection remains for a follow-up 25 basis point rate hike in October, taking rates to 1.00% from the current 0.75% setting. Europe: The ECB is effectively on holiday and data releases this week will be mostly backward looking, so it should be a relatively quiet week for markets. Draghi has remained very cagey even about the timing of the next QE announcement and this week’s data releases are unlikely to change the outlook and there are no key speeches on the immediate agenda. German June industrial production (Monday) is expected rising 0.8% m/m (median 0.4%), after the strong orders number and the very strong Ifo reading. We are looking for a pretty stable June trade surplus (Tuesday) of EUR 20.0bln leaving Q2 GDP on course to remain steady around 0.6% q/q. Industrial production data also comes from France (Thursday) and Italy (Wednesday), although unlike Germany both countries have already released preliminary Q2 GDP numbers, so unless there are major surprises it shouldn’t impact the overall picture. Final July HICP rates from Germany, France, Spain and Italy (all Friday) are expected to confirm preliminary data, which should leave national HICP rates ranging from 1.7% y/y in Spain, over 1.5% in Germany to just 0.8% y/y in France and the final Eurozone rate (due the following week) at 1.3% y/y. UK: Sterling posted losses against all three of the G3 currencies last week for the first time since the first week of June. The culprit was the BoE stance at its August 2-3 policy meeting, with dissenters on the Monetary Policy Committee in favor of hiking falling to two from three at the prior meeting in June, and with the central bank downwardly nudging both growth and inflation forecasts. The economic calendar this week brings the BRC retail sales report for July (Monday), where we expect the headline same store comparison rising by 0.6% y/y, after a 1.2% gain in June. Warm weather has been underpinning sales, along with strong employment levels, though the squeeze on real wages remains a concern for the retail sector in the months ahead. Production data for June are also up (Thursday), where we forecast a 0.1% m/m contraction but 0.1% y/y expansion. June trade data are also due on Thursday. China: The calendar picks up on Tuesday with the July trade report, where the surplus is expected to $48.0 bln from $42.8 bln. July price indicators (Wednesday) are seen accelerating slightly. CPI is seen picking up to a 1.6% y/y clip from 1.5%, while PPI is forecast rising to 5.6% y/y from 5.5%, respectively. July loan growth and new yuan loans (Thursday) should show the latter at CNY 1,000.0 bln from 1,540.0 bln previously. Japan: The June current account surplus (Tuesday) is expected to shrink to JPY 800.0 bln from 1,653.9 bln previously. July bank loan figures are also due Tuesday. June machine orders (Thursday) are seen bouncing 4.0% from the 3.6% decline in May. July PPI (Thursday) is forecast to climb to a 2.5% y/y pace from 2.1%, while the June tertiary index (Thursday) is penciled in edging up 0.2% after the prior 0.1% decline. Australia: The data docket is thin this week. The only main reports are ANZ job adds (Monday) and housing finance (Wednesday), expected to expand 0.5% m/m in June from May’s 1.0% gain. The RBA are due before parliament on Friday following last weeks downgrade to growth and inflation targets and the comments on the firm AUD are expected to be reiterated. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Senior Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
