Date : 5th August 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th August 2019. * Following the FOMC meeting last week, two interest rate decisions (RBA and RBNZ) are scheduled next week. An on-hold stance is expected from RBA and more easing by RBNZ. From an economic perspective, GDP releases are the highlights, while with the focus on geopolitical trade tensions, data releases are likely to be overlooked. Monday – 05 August 2019 * Services PMI (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The UK Services PMI is expected to stay unchanged at 50.2, a three-month low and drop from May’s 51.0 reading.The indicator effectively signals stagnation, with the sector only expanding fractionally, and at risk of tipping into recession; a consequence of both Brexit-related uncertainty and geopolitical trade tensions. * Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The US Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 55.5 in July from 55.1 in June and a 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September. The available July sentiment surveys have partly reversed the June downdraft in sentiment, though we’ve seen divergent swings for some measures. Tuesday – 06 August 2019 * Interest Rate Decision and Statement (AUD, GMT 04:30) – Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep rates unchanged at 1.00% (June and July saw the first back-to-back rate trimming since 2012). The latest data has strengthened the view that the RBA, after implementing back-to-back rate cuts, will be on hold for the foreseeable, albeit retaining a dovish policy stance. * JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not been filled on the last business day of the month. June’s JOLTS job openings is expected to fall slightly at 7.268M, following the 7.32M in May. Wednesday – 07 August 2019 * Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (NZD, GMT 02:00-03:00) – The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to proceed with a second rate cut this year. The consensus presents a 25bp rate cut. * Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country. Canada’s July Ivey PMI is expected to improve 2.6 points to 55.00 after the decline seen in June. The data is supportive of the steady policy story, as the economy returns to potential growth contrasts with an outlook “clouded by persistent trade tensions.” Thursday – 08 August 2019 * Gross Domestic Product (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Growth in Japan is expected to have decreased by 0.5% in the second quarter from the 0.6% in the first quarter, reflecting weaker exports due to cooling global demand and trade tensions. Friday – 09 August 2019 * Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The GDP for the second quarter could be seen declining due to the renewed rise in no-deal Brexit risks which negatively impacted data releases, and the slump in the June manufacturing PMI which highlights the extent of the deterioration in sentiment. The preliminary release of UK Q2 GDP growth is expected at the 1.4% y/y figure from the 1.8%seen in the last quarter. * Employment Change (CAD , GMT 12:30) – Employment change is seen spiking to 10.0k in the number of employed people in July, compared to the decline 2.2k in June. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.5%. A possible lack in total jobs during July is unlikely to challenge the BoC’s steady-as-it-goes policy position. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 6th August 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th August 2019. FX News Today * Bond as well as stock markets were under pressure during the Asian session. * Global equities in general, continued to get hammered by the escalation in trade tensions. * Data was thin, but the disappointing ISM services report added marginally to the bearish tone in stocks. * RBA left rates on hold amid a “reasonable” outlook for the global economy, but also highlighted downside risks from trade tensions. * The US officially labelled China a “currency manipulator“. The JPN225 are down 0.9%, the ASX slumped -2.4%, while the Hang Seng corrected -0.9%. * With the US-Sino trade spat rapidly escalating investors are heading for cover amid fears that the U.S. will up the threatened additional tariffs to 25% from the 10% President Trump had mentioned so far. * German manufacturing orders jumped 2.5% m/m in June, a much stronger than expected reading, that partly compensated for the -2.0% m/m decline in May. * The front end WTI future is currently trading at $55.29 per barrel. Charts of the Day Technician’s Corner * EURUSD printed 2-week highs of 1.1249, up from lows of 1.1170 yesterday. The latest trade was escalations between the US and China, have ramped up Fed easing speculation, with a September 25 bp rate cut fully priced into the market. This has given the Dollar a hard time of late, resulting in the DXY dropping from over 2-year highs last week, to 2-week lows on Monday. The Euro is currently over its 20-day moving average at 1.1185 for the first time in nearly a month, and now has sights set on the 50-day MA at 1.1235 and 200-day MA at 1.1295. * USOIL is down near 6% versus last week’s peak. The ramping up of the U.S. China trade war overnight, as China devalued its Yuan, and halted purchases of US agricultural goods weighed on oil prices, with traders focused on prospects for lower global growth, and oil demand destruction. Last Thursday’s six-week low of $53.59 remains the next support level, while Resistance is at Friday’s high and 10-day EMA at 56.00 . * USDCAD pulled back from overnight highs of 1.3220, falling to 1.3202. Oil prices remain a driver of USDCAD direction, while concerns over slowing global growth could keep crude prices under pressure, resulting in a higher USDCAD. Main Macro Events Today * JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not been filled on the last business day of the month. June’s JOLTS job openings is expected to fall slightly at 7.268M, following the 7.32M in May. Support and Resistance levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 7th August 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th August 2019. FX News Today * RBNZ surprises markets with hefty 50 bps cut; official rate now at 1.00%. * India’s RBI cut rates by 35 bps – more than expected; repo rate at 5.4%. * Decisive action from central banks in New Zealand and India also fueled fresh speculation of deep cuts from the likes of Fed and ECB. * New Zealand’s 10-year rate led a broad slide in yields across Asia. The RBNZ surprised markets with a hefty 50 bp cut that left the official cash rate at a record low of 1.00% and will spark fresh speculation of deep cuts world-wide. * The NZD dropped sharply as a result and AUD was also dragged lower as the 10-year rate dropped -8.3 bp, with traders expecting the RBA to follow. * Still, pressure eased somewhat in stock markets, after China took steps to steady the Yuan yesterday. * JPN225 is down -0.27%. * US futures are in the red after a positive close on Wall Street yesterday and the WTI future is trading at just USD 53.66 per barrel. * In Europe, German production numbers at the start of the session underpinned easing hopes. * German industrial production slumped -1.5% m/m in June, with the May reading revised down to just 0.1% m/m. * The German curve has already settled below zero and pressure on Draghi to not just cut rates but restart asset purchases is mounting. Charts of the Day Technician’s Corner * NZDUSD: The New Zealand Dollar over 2% in hitting its lowest level against the US Dollar since January 2016, at 0.6377, and trading at near seven-year lows in the case against the Yen. This followed a more aggressive than expected 50 bp rate cut by the RBNZ to an all-time low 1.00%, which was pinned on flagging growth conditions as a consequence of simmering trade tensions and a global economic slowdown. * AUDUSD fell in sympathy, with the RBA, after cutting rates in June and July, having signalled yesterday that more rate cuts could be in the pipeline. The pair smashed through the early January flash-crash low on route to printing a 10-year nadir at 0.6677. AUDJPY also dove into 10-year low territory. * USDJPY: The Yen lifted against the Dollar and Euro, though remained below highs seen earlier in the week. USDJPY posted a low at 105.93, extending the retreat from yesterday’s 107.09 high. * EURUSD continued to orbit the 1.1200 level. Sterling came back under pressure after a positional-driven rally earlier in the week. Cable nudged back under 1.2150 after failing to sustain gains above 1.2200, while EURGBP lifted back above 0.9200, drawing back in on the 24-month high at 0.9249. Main Macro Events Today * Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country. Canada’s July Ivey PMI is expected to improve 2.6 points to 55.00 after the decline seen in June. The data is supportive of the steady policy story, as the economy returns to potential growth contrasts with an outlook “clouded by persistent trade tensions.” Support and Resistance levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 8th August 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th August 2019. FX News Today * Markets remained choppy Wednesday amid heightened fears over the bearish signals from the drop in rates. * Better than expected China trade numbers, which showed a rebound in exports helped to underpin sentiment after a slightly higher than anticipated Yuan fixing. * Fears about the impact of the escalating trade conflict eased somewhat, also helped by news that Japan will allow some exports of semiconductor manufacturing material to South Korea, which suggests easing tensions between the two countries. * Wall Street losses were pared and the NASDAQ recovered into the green. US futures are up 0.4-0.7%. * Investors remain jumpy and markets volatile, however, while the inversion of the yield curve looks worrying and highlights the rise in recession fears. * Oil remains sharply weaker on growth fears and widening supply-demand dynamics. It is currently trading at $52.70. * The official fixing of the onshore Yuan today was at a new 10-year plus low against the Dollar. * RBNZ Governor Orr also repeated that negative rates are a possibility, which comes a day after the central bank caught widespread attention by implementing its first 50 bp easing since the immediate aftermath of 9/11. Charts of the Day Technician’s Corner * YEN: The Yen has traded softer, concurrently with a tentative rebound in stock markets, which was seen on Wall Street into the close yesterday, and followed up with gains across Asia-Pacific bourses. USDJPY settled in the lower 106.00s, above the 7-month low seen yesterday at 105.49. AUDJPY, EURJPY and other Yen crosses also posted moderate gains as the Japanese currency saw some of its safe haven premium unwind. Better than expected China trade numbers and Japan and South Korea’s news helped buoy investor spirits, and while the official fixing of the onshore Yuan today was at a new 10-year plus low against the Dollar of 7.0039 (up from 6.9996 yesterday), a little firmer than markets had been anticipating. Main Macro Events Today * Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:20) – Initial jobless claims for the week of August 3 are estimated to fall to 214k, after rising to 215k in the week of July 27. Claims should average a cycle-low 212k in July, as seen last September, versus 222k in June and 217k in May. Claims drifted higher into June from tight levels through May, with a spike higher with the advent of the auto retooling season, but with an ensuing drop into mid-July with seasonal factor payback. * Gross Domestic Product (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Growth in Japan is expected to have decreased by 0.5% in the second quarter from the 0.6% in the first quarter, reflecting weaker exports due to cooling global demand and trade tensions. Support and Resistance levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 12th August 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th August 2019. * Following a week of aggressive global central bank easing, with the escalation of the US-China trade war that is looking to have turned into a currency war, markets might take a small breath in the week ahead. However, the markets expected to remain volatile as the week is packed of economic data releases. Tuesday – 13 August 2019 * Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The final German HICP inflation for July expected to remain at 1.1% y/y after falling from 1.3% y/y in July’s preliminary release. * Average Earnings & ILO Unemployment Rate (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The ILO unemployment rate (3-month) is expected to have remained at 3.8%, with average income falling 3.5% y/y in the three months to June in the ex-bonus figure, and to 3.1% in the in-bonus figure from 3.4% y/y in July. * ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for August is projected at -22.3 from the -24.5 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The overall Eurozone reading though expected to improved slightly at -3.1 from -20.3. * Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – US CPI is expected to rise a 0.2% headline in July with a 0.2% increase in core prices, following respective June readings of 0.1% and 0.3%. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y gain of 1.6%, steady from 1.6% in June, while core prices should rise 2.1%, a steady pace from June. Overall, the inflation outlook remains benign, though with an updraft into the end of Q1 and early-Q2 from a petroleum price rebound that reversed course temporarily in May. Wednesday – 14 August 2019 * Industrial Production and Retail Sales (CNY, GMT 02:00) – The Chinese Industrial Production growth is expected to have decreased at 5.8% y/y in July from 6.3% y/y last month. A weak reading is also expected in Retail Sales figure at 8.6% from 9.8%. * Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 06:00-09:00) – German Preliminary Q2 results are expected to have stood at 0.4% q/q. Eurozone prelim. Q2 GDP growth expected to be confirmed at 0.2% q/q and 1.1% y/y. * Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The UK July CPI expected to meet once again the expectations at 2.0% y/y, which was unchanged from the May rate. Core inflation should remain to 1.8% y/y. The data fits BoE projections, and shows that perky wage inflation hasn’t translated into higher headline rates yet. Thursday – 15 August 2019 * Employment Data (AUD, GMT 01:30) – While the Unemployment Rate is expected to have remained at 5.2% in July, employment change is expected to have increased to 26.8K from 0.5K last month. * Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK Retail Sales are expected to have declined to -1.4%m/m in July following a 1.0% m/m contraction in June. In the y/y comparison, sales should rise 4.0% while the ex-fuel is projected at 2.7% y/y from 3.6% y/y. * Retail Sales and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 0.3% July retail sales headline is anticipated with a 0.5% increase for the ex-autos figure, following 0.4% June gains for both measures. Gasoline prices should provide a boost to retail activity given an estimated 1.7% gain for the CPI gasoline figure, though unit vehicle sales fell to a 16.8 mln pace in July from a 17.1 mln clip in June. Real consumer spending is expected to grow at a 2.9% rate in Q3, following the 4.3% Q2 clip. * Philadelphia Fed Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Philly Fed index is seen falling to 9.0 from a 1-year high of 21.8 in July, versus a 33-month low of -4.1 in February. The producer sentiment readings all moderated through the turn of the year from elevated levels in response to global growth concerns, falling petroleum prices, fears about the ongoing trade war, and the partial government shutdown. Friday – 16 August 2019 * Housing Data and Building Permits (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should rise to a 1.260 mln pace in July, after a dip to 1.253 mln in July. Permits are expected to improve to 1.270 mln in July, after falling to 1.232 mln in June. Overall, starts and permits should show a firm path into Q3, and the Q3 averages are expected of 1.263 mln for starts and 1.295 mln for permits. * Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The preliminary August Michigan sentiment reading is forecast at 97.5, up from the final July sentiment at 98.4. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 13th August 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th August 2019. FX News Today * RISK OFF * 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.8 bp at 1.637%, JGB yields fell back -1.4 bp to -0.341% after falling to the lowest level since 2016 during the course of the session. * Risk Aversion continued to dominate during the Asian session and stock markets headed south after the S&P fell more than 1.5% on Monday. * Bond markets remained supported as investors continue to bet on further central bank action with trade concerns, Brexit risks and political unrest in Hong Kong adding to the risk off backdrop. U.S. 30-year rates are nearing all time lows with Argentina default risks only boosting the flight to quality that is seeing a marked flattening of the curve. * In Asia escalating political protests in Hong Kong remain in focus and Australia’s 10-year bond yield opened at a fresh all time low. China’s 10-year rate meanwhile fell below 3% for the first time since 2016 before steadying slightly above the 3% mark. * GOLD breaches $1520.00 (highest since April 2103) and USOil meanwhile is trading at USD 54.81 per barrel. Charts of the Day Technician’s Corner * USD: The The dollar has traded moderately firmer against most of the other main currencies outside the case against the Australian dollar, which has modestly outperformed so far today. The yen softened, correcting some of the recent safe-haven driven gains, despite a tumble on Wall Street yesterday and across Asian equity bourses today, though the Japanese currency has lifted out of its lows into the London interbank open. There is plenty on the worry list, including disruptive pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong and a crash in Argentina’s peso following a poor performance of market-friendly Argentine President Macri in presidential primaries. Singapore also made a substantial cut to its GDP forecast for 2019 (to between 0% and 1%, down from 1.5%-2.5%), citing the deteriorating global conditions, with the Hong Kong situation, along with the U.S.-China and South Korea-Japan trade wars, and Brexit, all getting a mention. The U.S. yield curve is now at its lowest level since 2007, which is seen by many as portending recession, or at least a significant risk of recession. GS analysts also said that the U.S.-China trade war will have a bigger detrimental impact on the U.S. economy than it previously thought. A Reuters poll, meanwhile, found a new high in the probability being ascribed by analysts for there being a no-deal Brexit, which is now pegged at 35%, up from 30% in the previous survey. Amid all this, the PBoC set the yuan at a new near 11-year low against the dollar at the day’s midpoint fixing, at 7.0326, versus 7.0211 yesterday. Given the risk-on vibe, the yen looks likely to find fresh demand in London, with shorts of AUD-JPY and GBP-JPY likely Main Macro Events Today * Average Earnings & ILO Unemployment Rate (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The ILO unemployment rate (3-month) is expected to have remained at 3.8%, with average income falling 3.5% y/y in the three months to June in the ex-bonus figure, and to 3.1% in the in-bonus figure from 3.4% y/y in July. * ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for August is projected at -22.3 from the -24.5 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The overall Eurozone reading though expected to improved slightly at -3.1 from -20.3. * Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – US CPI is expected to rise a 0.2% headline in July with a 0.2% increase in core prices, following respective June readings of 0.1% and 0.3%. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y gain of 1.6%, steady from 1.6% in June, while core prices should rise 2.1%, a steady pace from June. Overall, the inflation outlook remains benign, though with an updraft into the end of Q1 and early-Q2 from a petroleum price rebound that reversed course temporarily in May. Support and Resistance levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 19th August 2019. Events to Look Out for This Week. Trade worries remain and are expected to keep flip-flopping between risk-off and risk-back-on sentiment. Hopes for more central bank stimulus vies with fears that a number of major economies are simultaneously heading for recession, with a number of developing-world economies with high Dollar debt levels particularly exposed to the shifting financial cycle. Given these fears, further conciliatory remarks are likely from both China and the US with regard to their trade spat. Nevertheless, next week the economic calendar also focuses on the PMI releases globally. Monday – 19 August 2019 Consumer Price Index and Core (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area CPI for July is expected to hold at 1.1%y/y in the final July reading from 1.3%y/y in June. Energy price inflation was clearly largely to blame and the core rate fell back to just 0.9%y/y from 1.1%y/y in the previous month. The core is anticipated to remain unchanged as well. With growth slowing down and the improvement on the labour market starting to fizzle out, chances are that inflation will continue to undershoot the ECB’s target range, thus adding to arguments for a comprehensive easing package in September. Tuesday – 20 August 2019 Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The RBA left rates on hold in its last meeting, after back-to-back rate cuts in June and July, which put the cash rate at a record low of 1.00%, while Governor Lowe said that more easing measures could be needed. Minutes are expected to shed further light regarding future easing stance. Manufacturing Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Manufacturing sales are anticipated to grow 2.0% in June after a 1.6% rebound in shipment values was revealed during May and following a 0.4% decline in April. The surge in transport equipment sales is consistent with the improving economy and as such fits with the BoC’s overall view that the economy is improving after temporary weakness in Q4/Q1. Wednesday – 21 August 2019 Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s CPI did not challenge the outlook for steady BoC policy this year. CPI slowed to a 2.0% y/y pace in June from the lofty 2.4% y/y clip in May. Inflation remains around the 2 percent target, with some recent upward pressure from higher food and automobile prices. Core measures of inflation are also close to 2 percent. Even though CPI inflation will likely dip this year because of the dynamics of gasoline prices and some other temporary factors, the annual and monthly numbers for July are expected to remain steady. As slack in the economy is absorbed and these temporary effects wane, inflation is expected to return sustainably to 2 percent by mid-2020. FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The FOMC minutes, similar to the ECB Reports, provide an assessment as regards the views of the Fed’s policymakers about the interest-setter’s future stance and are usually a cause for FX turbulence. Thursday – 22 August 2019 Jackson Hole Symposium – Day 1 Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30-08:00) – July PMI readings highlighted manufacturing weakness. This picture is likely to be seen again in the preliminary readings for August, as Manufacturing PMI has been forecast at 46.3 from 46.5 last month, still down from 47.6 in June, and indicates a deepening recession in a sector that has been hit very hard by global trade tensions and no-deal Brexit risks. Meanwhile Services PMI is expected to fall to 52.7 from 53.2. Services and Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – Preliminary Manufacturing are expected to grow in August, to 51.0 from 50.4, as Services PMIs are likely to fall to 51.7 from 53. New Zealand Retail Sales (NZD, GMT 22:45) – Usually considered an index of consumer confidence and overall consumption in the economy, higher retail sales point to higher consumption and hence higher economic growth which is good for the currency. Friday- 23 August 2019 Jackson Hole Symposium – Day 2 Retail Sales ex Autos (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Retail sales are expected to have decreased in Canada, with consensus forecasts suggesting a -0.5% m/m decline should be registered in June and an unchanged ex-autos component at 0.3%. In May, Retail sales were disappointing, falling 0.1% for total sales and declining 0.3% for the ex-autos component. The decline in sales was driven by a 2.0% tumble in food and beverage stores. The report casts some doubt on the resiliency of the consumer sector to the ongoing parade of worrisome geopolitical and trade developments. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 20th August 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th August 2019. FX News Today * Trade talk hopes and expectations of further stimulus measures kept stock markets underpinned during the Asian session. * Treasury yields fell back as hopes of fiscal easing were scaled back somewhat. * The US administration denied plans to cut payroll taxes to support growth and Germany’s reported contingency plan for a fiscal package in case of a deep recession, are clearly not the central scenario for now. * The 10-year rate is down 1.5 bp at 1.591%, JGB yields dipped -0.1 bp to -0.241%. * US President Trump called on the Fed to cut rates by “at least 100 basis points“. Fed’s Rosengren meanwhile pushed back against further rate cuts, saying that he is not convinced that slowing trade and global growth will significantly dent the economy. * Comments from US Commerce Secretary Ross that the US will delay restrictions imposed on some of Huawei’s business operations helped to underpin sentiment, although. * RBA Minutes: The minutes to the early-August RBA policy meeting were released without surprises, affirming its wait-and-see-easing-bias stance while repeating its view that the weaker currency will help exports and tourism. * Italian BTPs are underperforming this morning, ahead of PM Conte’s showdown in the Senate, although it seems Salvini’s attempt at a power grab may be backfiring as his coalition partner is trying to form an alliance with opposition parties. * Topix and Nikkei are currently up 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. The Hang Seng is up 0.09% but the Shanghai Comp down 0.01%. * European stock futures are slightly higher, as are US futures after a largely positive session in Asia. * The WTI future is trading at USD 56.30 per barrel. Charts of the Day Technician’s Corner * The Australian dollar has traded firmer and, to a lesser extent, the New Zealand buck. AUDUSD printed a 5-day high, at 0.6795, as did AUDJPY, at 72.36. Among the other main currencies, there has remained a lack of directional impulse. EURUSD has remained settled in the upper 1.1000s, holding below 1.1100, and USDJPY has become anchored around 106.50. The Dollar hasn’t been much affected by US President Trump’s call for the Fed to cut rates by “at least 100 basis points”. Overall investor sentiment is much less frayed that it was last week, with expectations for stimulus in major economies, along with Trump’s partial climbdown in his trade war with China, assuaging recession fears. Main Macro Events Today * Manufacturing Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Manufacturing sales are anticipated to grow 2.0% in June after a 1.6% rebound in shipment values was revealed during May and following a 0.4% decline in April. The surge in transport equipment sales is consistent with the improving economy and as such fits with the BoC’s overall view that the economy is improving after temporary weakness in Q4/Q1. Support and Resistance levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 21st August 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st August 2019. FX News Today * Wall Street suffered another bout of weakness inspired by declines in Treasury yields. * The USA500 lost near 0.8% after a late selloff, with the USA30 off 0.66%, ending the recent run of gains. * Stocks traded mixed in Asia, while European as well as US futures are posting slight gains ahead of today’s Fed minutes and Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium later in the week. * A drop in European rates spilled over to Treasuries, with the long end outperforming. That compressed the yield curve again, one of the main factors behind last Wednesday’s plunge on Wall Street. * The markets will remain focused on the Fed today with the release of the minutes from July 30, 31 FOMC with hopes for dovish signals. Nearly 70 bps in easing is expected over the rest of the year. * Top negotiators from Japan and the US will meet this week to try and narrow the gaps in ongoing trade talks, but hopes that there will be substantial progress on the key issues agriculture and automobiles seem to be fading. * Italian BTPs outperformed yesterday on hopes that new elections can be avoided and that an alternative coalition government can be found to bring at least the 2020 budget underway helped to underpin Italian assets on Tuesday and at least so far there is no sign of contagion risks. * Germany meanwhile will sell its first 30-year Bund with a zero coupon, and yields in today’s auction could turn negative for the first time. * The AUD remained underpinned by upbeat comments from the RBA on the growth outlook in yesterday’s minutes. * The WTI future is trading at USD 56.36 per barrel. Charts of the Day Technician’s Corner * EURUSD bounced to 1.1100 highs on a short covering move, after failing to make any downside progress under Friday’s over 2-week low of 1.1066, along with another Treasury yield lurch lower. The pairing looks to be consolidating losses seen over the past week or so, and with sell-stops now said to be building around the 1.1050 level, a downside break is looking more likely. Not as dovish as expected FOMC minutes on Wednesday could save Euro bulls for now, though with the ECB primed to ease further, Germany poised for fiscal stimulus, the unknown impact of Brexit, and the political crisis in Italy, EURUSD looks set to test the 27-month low of 1.1027 seen on August 1. * USDCAD rallied yesterday at 1.3344 a 2-month high, as WTI crude fell $1/bbl to $55.20, and as Canada manufacturing data came in on the soft side. USDCAD later pulled back toward 1.3310 as oil recovered some lost ground. The 200-day MA at 1.3305 becomes support now, after closing above the level on Monday. Resistance is the June 19 top of 1.3383. Main Macro Events Today * Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s CPI did not challenge the outlook for steady BoC policy this year. CPI slowed to a 2.0% y/y pace in June from the lofty 2.4% y/y clip in May. Inflation remains around the 2 percent target, with some recent upward pressure from higher food and automobile prices. Core measures of inflation are also close to 2 percent. Even though CPI inflation will likely dip this year because of the dynamics of gasoline prices and some other temporary factors, the annual and monthly numbers for July are expected to remain steady. As slack in the economy is absorbed and these temporary effects wane, inflation is expected to return sustainably to 2 percent by mid-2020. * FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The FOMC minutes, similar to the ECB Reports, provide an assessment as regards the views of the Fed’s policymakers about the interest-setter’s future stance and are usually a cause for FX turbulence. Support and Resistance levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 22nd August 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd August 2019. FX News Today * FOMC minutes did not provide strong clues on the direction of rates. * However, the lack of a signal that the Fed’s July rate cut was the start of an easing cycle was enough to eventually weigh on Treasuries. * Asian stock markets struggled as investors continued to digest the implications of yesterday’s Fed minutes and trading conditions remained quieter than usual ahead of Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow. * Yields closed at their highs of the session after holding cheap levels all session. The curve narrowed below 1 bp as the short end underperformed. * US President Trump continued to criticize the Fed Chairman, while suggesting the US may strike a deal on trade, but that didn’t prevent US futures from heading south overnight. * Topix and Nikkei are currently down -0.13% and -0.09% respectively, despite improvements in PMI readings that were counterbalanced by an as expected decline in the All Industry Index. * The WTI future meanwhile fell back to $55.45 per barrel. * Brexit: Merkel gives Johnson 30 days to solve Backstop conundrum. * Johnson is today expected in Paris, where the tone is likely to be harsher than in Berlin, although both Merkel and Macron have stressed that they are ready for a no-deal Brexit if there is no agreement. * The UK curve remains inverted out to the 10-year area. Charts of the Day Technician’s Corner *USDJPY printed a two-day low, at 106.28.The biggest mover, not surprisingly, has been AUDJPY, a forex market barometer of shifting risk-appetite patterns in global markets. The cross was showing a 0.5% loss heading into the London interbank open, and was testing one-week lows at 71.90. Next Support stands at 71.76 and 71.60. Resistance is at the pivot 72.20 level. Main Macro Events Today * Jackson Hole Symposium – Day 1 * Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30-08:00) – July PMI readings highlighted manufacturing weakness. This picture is likely to be seen again in the preliminary readings for August, as Manufacturing PMI has been forecast at 46.3 from 46.5 last month, still down from 47.6 in June, and indicates a deepening recession in a sector that has been hit very hard by global trade tensions and no-deal Brexit risks. Meanwhile, Services PMI is expected to fall to 52.7 from 53.2. * Services and Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – Preliminary Manufacturing is expected to grow in August, to 51.0 from 50.4, as Services PMI is likely to fall to 51.7 from 53. * New Zealand Retail Sales (NZD, GMT 22:45) – Usually considered an index of consumer confidence and overall consumption in the economy, higher retail sales point to higher consumption and hence higher economic growth which is good for the currency. Support and Resistance levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
