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Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by HFblogNews, May 29, 2017.

  1. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 30th September 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th September 2019.


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    Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing of all the key financial events globally. The week ahead is expected to be turn on economic data, with investors eyeing NFP data but also Eurozone data for a possible strength in the service sector.
    Monday – 30 September 2019

    • Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to remain above neutral at 40.2 in September.
    • Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The economy’s most important figure, Q2 GDP is expected to be higher at 0.5% q/q following the last reading but unchanged from the reading of Q1.
    • Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The German HICP inflation for August held steady at 1.0% y/y. However the preliminary reading for Septembe is expected to rise at 1.2% y/y.
    Tuesday – 01 October 2019

    • Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 04:30) – The RBA minutes from the September policy meeting showed that the central bank remains disposed to further easing. AUDUSD has been amid a clear downtrend since early 2018, which has approximated the development of the US-China trade war and consequential slowing in the Chinese economy, which is Australia’s biggest export customer.
    • Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Euro Area CPI for September is expected to remain unchanged to 1.0% y/y, while core inflation is seen at 1.0% y/y from 0.9% y/y.
    • Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:55) – The preliminary September Eurozone PMI readings, released so far, were striking for failing to show an expected improvement and instead showing a marked contraction in manufacturing activity, with service sector activity slowing sharply. The final reading is expected to be confirmed at 41.4. The weakness German manufacturing – triggered by geopolitical trade tensions and Brexit uncertainty is spreading to other sectors and across the Eurozone.
    • ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 51.0 in September from 49.1 in August, compared to a 14-year high of 61.4 in August of last year.
    Wednesday – 02 October 2019

    • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – The ADP Employment survey is seen at 140k for September compared to the 195K in August.
    Thursday – 03 October 2019

    • Australia’s Trade Balance (AUD, GMT, 1:30) – Australia export growth in September is expected to have reduced. Hence the trade balance could slip to 6,000M from 7,268 M last month.
    • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to fall to 54.5 in September from 56.4 in August and a 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September of last year. The sentiment surveys have been erratic in recent months likely due to competing perspectives on the trade war, troubles abroad, and stock price gyrations.
    Friday – 04 October 2019

    • Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) Along with Wednesday’s employment data, payrolls are important in gauging how many people are employed in non-agricultural businesses. Jobs are expected to have increased in at 155k in September, following a 130k increase in August. The unemployment rate should tick down to 3.6%, after holding at 3.7% in the prior three months, and hours-worked are estimated to be up 0.1%. Average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.2%, matching the 3.2% pace of August. We see payroll gains averaging 157k in 2019, down from a 223k average in 2018.
    • Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT 18:00)
    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  2. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 1st October 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th Sepember 2019.


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    FX News Today
    • RBA cut key rate – as expected. Australia’s central bank reduced the key interest rate buy 25 bp to 0.75% – 3rd cut this year.
    • JGBs and Treasuries sold off after weak JGB auction, stocks mostly higher.Wall Street rallied. Dow is up about 2% in September and 1.4% for Q3, and just shy of all-time highs.
    • The sharpest decline in 10-year JGB futures in more than a year was triggered by a very weak 10-year auction, which saw demand dipping to the lowest level since 2016.
    • European futures suggest a positive start to the new months especially for the DAX, which is up 0.4%, alongside gains in US futures.
    • USDJPY is trading at 108.22, as the Dollar remained supported.
    • The AUD underperformed after the dovish RBA statement.
    • The EUR is trading below 109 against the USD after source stories yesterday suggested that Germany’s leading economic institutes will cut their growth forecasts for the Eurozone’s largest economy, which given that the Bundesbank is expecting a technical recession should not come as a surprise, but will highlight again the downside risks for Germany as well as the Eurozone.
    • The UK’s government will present detailed alternatives to the Irish backstopto Brussels this week.
    • The USOIL is trading at $54.54 per barrel amid reports that production at the world’s largest oil produces fell during the third quarter.
    Charts of the day
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    Technician’s Corner
    • USDJPY:Moderately risk-on conditions have supported on Monday, along with a slight uptick in Treasury yields. Relative calm on the US/China trade front has weighed some on the Yen as well, as high-level talks are expected in Washington on October 10-11. China’s Vice Premier Liu He, along with the USTR Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are expected to run the negotiation sessions. Above Friday’s 108.18 highs, the September 19 top at 108.47 could be USDJPY’s next upside level.
    • EURUSD took another leg lower, trading under the 1.09 mark for the first time since the second week of May, 2017. There appeared to be a push to run sell-stops located just under the 1.0900 mark, following cooler German CPI, resulting in a dip to lows of 1.0885. Reports of 1.0900 option expiries on Tuesday and Wednesday may now keep the pairing glued to either side of the level until then. Eventually though, Euro is expected to remain down as European growth continues to fade, the ECB remains uber-dovish, and the Dollar continues to find support on the back of USD friendly interest rate spreads.
    Main Macro Events Today

    • Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Euro Area CPI for September is expected to remain unchanged at 1.0% y/y, while core inflation is seen at 1.0% y/y from 0.9% y/y.
    • Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:55) – The preliminary September Eurozone PMI readings, released so far, were striking for failing to show an expected improvement and instead showing a marked contraction in manufacturing activity, with service sector activity slowing sharply. The final reading is expected to be confirmed at 41.4. The weakness in German manufacturing – triggered by geopolitical trade tensions and Brexit uncertainty is spreading to other sectors and across the Eurozone.
    • ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 51.0 in September from 49.1 in August, compared to a 14-year high of 61.4 in August of last year.
    Support and Resistance levels

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  3. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 2nd October 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd Sepember 2019.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today
    • Wall Street kicked off Q4 on bearish footing with the Dow dropping 1.2% to 26,570.
    • The weaker than expected ISM manufacturing index to 47.8, a second straight month in contraction, rekindled recession worries.
    • Yields are still above Monday’s close, after weak demand in yesterday’s auctions triggered a sharp rise in long yields.
    • South Korean indices were hit by reports that North Korea fired what seemed a submarine based ballistic missile of its eastern coast, added to the negative risk backdrop after the S&P closed at a one months low.
    • US futures are trying to move higher, GER30 and UK100 futures are in negative territory.
    • Brexit: UK Prime Minister Johnson, admitted that customs checks would be the “reality” of Brexit, even though he dismissed an apparent leak of his government’s detailed plans for the post-Brexit Irish border — which involve customs checks on both sides of the border — as being inaccurate.
    • Gilts outperformed and UK yields declined yesterday after hopes of a breakthrough on the Brexit front were crashed and political headlines will remain the main driver for UK markets
    • The BoE lays the ground for a rate cut even without a no-deal Brexit scenario.
    Charts of the day

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    Technician’s Corner
    • GBPUSD pulled back from earlier highs, as Bloomberg, cited a Buzzfeed tweet saying according to an EU Commission spokesman, the earlier report that the EU was considering a time-limited Irish backstop, was not true. Cable fell to 1.2260 from earlier highs near 1.2340.
    • EURUSD bounced to 1.0908 highs into the N.Y. open. The Euro has printed 5-straight session of lower daily highs and lows, a bearish signal, and a failure to trade above Monday’s 1.0948 highs today will likely embolden EUR bears going forward. Fundamentally, the US economy remains head and shoulders above Europe’s, while a dovish ECB and interest rate differentials solidly in favor of the Dollar, we look for further EURUSD losses going forward.
    Main Macro Events Today

    • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – The ADP is expected to report a 145k increase in private payrolls for September following the better than expected 195k increase in August. Risk is for a weaker headline print after the miss in the September ISM, that included a decline in the employment sub-component. Friday’s September nonfarm payroll report is now crucial for the markets’ expectations on the FOMC, as another 25 bp rate cut is again being priced in with greater than a 50-50 probability.
    Support and Resistance levels

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  4. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 3rd October 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd October 2019.


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    FX News Today
    • US set to impose tariffs on USD 7.5 bln of EU goods, ranging from aircraft to agricultural products.
    • Risk aversion is sending global stock markets in a sell-off while the announcement of US tariffs will add to the negative backdrop today.
    • Wall Street closed with sharp losses yesterday following also the poor jobs numbers, which added to concerns over the outlook.
    • BoJ board member Funo: “BoJ must maintain sufficiently low interest rates for a prolonged period”, while saying that the BoJ will prevent any risks to the inflation target from materialising.
    • US futures are slightly higher, but European futures remain in the red and the risk of further corrections on stock markets seems pretty high. UK100 down by more than 3%.
    • USDJPY is trading at 107.16 after tumbling on risk aversion yesterday.
    • The WTI future meanwhile is trading at just $52.52 per barrel after selling off for 8 straight days.
    • The UK curve flattened, while spillover effects also saw Bunds moving up, as markets prepare for additional fiscal spending on both sides of the channel.
    • BREXIT: PM Johnson’s latest Brexit plan is not expected to bring a real breakthrough in talks and EU officials are reportedly considering how the October 31 deadline can be extended, even if Johnsons refuses to ask for an extension.
    Charts of the day

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    Technician’s Corner
    • EURUSD printed 1-week highs of 1.0962 after opening at 1.0920, up from Tuesday’s trend low of 1.0879. The Euro’s move higher appears to be more of a case of Dollar weakness than Euro strength following the weak U.S. manufacturing ISM on Tuesday, and the not overly impressive ADP jobs report this morning. U.S. recession fears have been on the rise again, resulting in lower Treasury yields. Traders will likely hold fire into the end of the week, to see how the services ISM on Thursday, and the September employment report on Friday play out. EUR-USD resistance is at 1.1000.
    • USDJPY fell to six-session lows of 107.17, down from opening highs of 107.60. The pairing has so far found support ahead of the 50-day moving average at 107.05, though today’s severe risk-off conditions, including a sharp Wall Street sell-off, and lower Treasury yields, should keep Dollar gains contained. U.S./China trade uncertainty can be expected to limit upside as well. The pairing has been inside a 108.50 to 107.00 trading range for nearly a month, and will need a decisive break of either of those levels to see a shift in sentiment. For now, given all the uncertainties facing the markets, we look for the risk sensitive pairing to test downside support.
    Main Macro Events Today

    • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to fall to 54.5 in September from 56.4 in August and a 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September of last year. The sentiment surveys have been erratic in recent months, likely due to competing perspectives on the trade war, troubles abroad, and stock price gyrations.
    • Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 14:00) – Initial jobless claims are expected to increase 5k to 218k for the week of September 27, after edging up 3k to 213k in the week of September 21. Part of the prior week’s gain likely reflects some lift from the effects of the UAW strike at GM which began September 16 that included some 49k workers. Strikers don’t qualify for benefits, but suppliers to GM do. Beyond the strike, claims look poised to fluctuate around 212k in September, which matches the 212k cycle-low in July that was also seen last September. We saw prior claims averages of 216k in August, 222k in June, and 217k in May.
    Support and Resistance levels

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  5. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 4th October 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th October 2019.


    [​IMG]
    FX News Today
    • EU to give Johnson one week to improve Brexit proposal. According to a Bloomberg, the EU’s chief negotiator Barnier told a private meeting of European senior diplomats that Boris Johnson’s latest blueprint for the Irish border fell far short of his conditions for a deal. The U.K. was given a week to improve on the plans.
    • European Outlook: Bund futures are fractionally higher ahead of the official open in Europe while Treasuries held yesterday’s gains. EGBs bounced back yesterday but the combined sell off in Gilts and FTSE 100 especially on Wednesday highlights that Brexit risks also raise stagflation concerns and has the potential to send all U.K. assets lower. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are higher, with the DAX future underperforming slightly, as the main index returns from yesterday’s holiday. EUR-USD is trading at 1.0969 as markets look ahead to the U.S. payroll report today, which will dominate the session, especially amid the lack of data releases in Europe.
    Charts of the day

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    Technician’s Corner
    • EURUSD opened the session at lows near 1.0950, and was steady into the U.S. services ISM. From there, a three-year low outcome saw the pairing vault to 1.0999 highs, as the Dollar overall, and Treasury yields headed lower. The pairing steadied between the highs and 1.0975 through the remainder of the session. Major Dollar pairings are liable to turn sideways through the overnight session, as traders anticipate the U.S. employment report on Friday. The jobs report may go some way in solidifying the growth outlook and the Fed’s policy path, and hence, future USD direction.
    • USDJPY bounced from near one-month lows of 106.87 seen into the N.Y. open, topping at 107.12 into the ISM data. The pairing slid to new trend lows of 106.48 after the data, taking its cue from a sharply lower Wall Street and a dive in Treasury yields. Heightened odds for another Fed rate cut at the end of October will likely keep a cap on the pairing for the time being.
    Main Macro Events Today

    • U.S. Employment Preview: It’s all about the September employment report. The data will go some way in solidifying the markets’ growth outlook and the Fed’s policy path after a rash of weaker than expected numbers on manufacturing and services fueled worries over a recession. But the markets have already priced in a Fed rate cut at the October 29, 30 FOMC, so this report isn’t likely to alter that outlook measurably. Expectations are for a 145k rise in non-farm payrolls, versus the previous 130k, though recent data suggests downside risks. Hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% from 0.4% in August, while the unemployment rate should dip a tenth to 3.6% (lowest since the 3.5% for December 1969).
    Support and Resistance levels

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  6. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 07 October 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 07 October 2019.


    [​IMG]

    FOMC trimmed rates 25 bps, as expected, but with 3 dissents. In the last FOMC statement, on July 31 decision showed mixed views, two dissents for steady policy, two participants who wanted 50 bps in cuts and several wanted steady stance.
    Thursday – 10 October 2019

    • Gross Domestic Product and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 08:30) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. August’s GDP is expected to lower to 0% following the 0.3% reading from last month. Meanwhile, Industrial and Manufacturing Production will be out as well. These two indices are expected to have fallen, with both providing a downwards contribution of 0.1% m/m in August.
    • ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 11:30) – Event of the Week –The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, provide information with regards to the policymakers’ rationale behind their decisions. In the last ECB meeting, ECB not only cut the deposit rate but also announced a new open-ended asset purchase program, worth EUR 20 bln a month, while removing the time frame in the rate guidance.
    • Consumer Price Index ex Energy and Food (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Consumer Price Index is suggestive of how the economy is performing, with expectations standing flat for the September headline release. A 0.2% core price increase is expected, following respective August readings of 0.1% and 0.3%.
    Friday – 11 October 2019

    • Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – August employment revealed a 81.1k jump in jobs, much stronger than expected, following the 24.2k drop in July. However September reading is expected to feel the negative impact of the stampede of global easing as banks look to counter the drag from trade. September’s unemployment rate in Canada is anticipated unchanged at 5.7% m/m, while the employment change is expected to post just 15K jump in jobs.
    • Michigan Sentiment (USD, GMT 14:00) – The preliminary US consumer sentiment for October is forecast at 90.6, 3.2 points below the final in September.
    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This
     
  7. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 8th October 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th October 2019.


    [​IMG]
    FX News Today
    • German industrial production better than expected at 0.3% m/m. The unexpected expansion in August comes despite ongoing contraction in orders and a deterioration in business sentiment.
    • European Outlook: European stock markets closed with broad gains, despite mounting signs that U.K. PM Johnson is positioning for a failure in Brexit talks with the EU, which shouldn’t come as a surprise, but makes the risk of a no-deal scenario ever more tangible as Johnson lays the ground for a “people-versus-parliament” election. European stock futures are moving higher in tandem with U.S. futures after a positive session in Asia.
    • World Bank warns Brexit, European recession will hit world growth; The head of the World Bank warned global growth could come in lower than the 2.6% predicted in June amid “Brexit, Europe’s recession and trade uncertainty”.
    Charts of the day

    [​IMG]

    Technician’s Corner
    • EURUSD traded sideways through the NY morning session, ranging between 1.0982 and near two-week highs of 1.1000, in the Asian session the pair fell back to 1.0966. The Dollar overall appears to be showing signs of peaking, with incoming U.S. data last week showing significant indications of economic slowing. Europe has its own growth issues as well of course, though with markets pricing in another Fed rate cut at the end of October, EURUSD may have some room to run to the upside in the coming sessions.
    • USDJPY topped at 107.07 in US session following comments from White House advisor Kudlow, who said that a US-China deal was possible and negotiators could make progress this week, and Washington is open to looking at China’s proposals. The comments came after China over the weekend indicated it is not open to a broad scale trade agreement. USD strength continued overnight with the pair touching 107.44.
    Main Macro Events Today

    • Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Headline PPI is expected to drop at -0.2% for September, with a 0.2% rise in the core index. As expected readings would result in a y/y gain of 1.5% for headline PPI, versus a 1.8% pace of August. We see y/y headline readings in a 1.0%-2.3% range over coming months, while core prices should oscillate in a 2.0%-2.5% range.
    Support and Resistance levels

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  8. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

    Joined:
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    Date : 9th October 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th October 2019.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today

    * European Outlook: Stock market sentiment remains very cautious with Brexit risks and signs of fresh US-Sino tensions ahead of this week’s trade talks weighing on confidence.

    * Talks between the UK and the EU on trade are expected to officially break down this week, with “leaked” memos out of Westminster putting the blame firmly in the EU’s court and threatening those EU countries that support another delay of the Brexit date. UK PM Johnson is due to meet Irish Pm Varadkar later.

    * Overnight – US-China relations stressed further as new visa restrictions by the US were introduced. Trade talks on going and high level contact still scheduled Thursday & Friday.
    Equities markets fell 1.5% in the US and Nikkei has closed down 0.6%.

    * USD keeps the bid due to safe haven status, even after a Dovish Powell hints at rate cut (s) and starting to repurchase assets again.

    Charts of the Day

    [​IMG]

    Technician’s Corner

    * EURUSD pulled back to 1.0945 lows into the London close, after failing to decisively take out the key 1.1000 level over the past four sessions. US based accounts were sellers from near the open, stepping in over 1.0990. Safe-haven flows into Dollars and Treasuries were noted. Last Thursday’s 1.0940 low is the near term downside target, followed by Wednesday’s 1.0904 bottom. Trades on London open at 1.0960 pivot point.

    * Cable Cable was crushed to one-month low of 1.2195 in N.Y. morning trade, down from London highs over 1.2300. The BBC cited a UK government source saying that Germany’s Merkel conveyed to PM Johnson that a deal based on his government’s proposals was “overwhelmingly unlikely.”. The development makes it a near certainty that Johnson won’t have a deal by the October-19 deadline set out in the newly created parliamentary bill that would require the prime minister to ask the EU for an extension in Brexit to January 31.

    Main Macro Events Today

    * JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not be filled on the last business day of the month. July’s JOLTS job openings came out at 7.217M.

    * FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate hikes. FOMC trimmed rates 25 bps, as expected, but with 3 dissents. In the last FOMC statement, on July 31 decision showed mixed views, two dissents for steady policy, two participants who wanted 50 bps in cuts and several wanted steady stance.

    Support and Resistance levels

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  9. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

    Joined:
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    592
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    Date : 10th October 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th October 2019.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today
    • US yields corrected slightly from yesterday’s highs. Asian bond markets remained under pressure, while stock markets traded mixed with conflicting trade headlines making for a jumpy session.
    • Bloomberg reported that the US is weighing to agree to a previously hammered out currency pact as a team of Chinese negotiators, including Vice Premier Liu He arrived in Washington.
    • There were also reports in the US that the Trump administration will grant licences that would allow US firms to sell no sensitive supplies to Huawei.
    • US stock futures are in red, with the headlines accompanying the trade talks, likely to keep markets volatile and jittery.
    • GER30 and UK100 futures are slightly higher, though, with Brexit developments in focus as UK PM Johnson is travelling to Ireland in search for a breakthrough on the Irish border conundrum.
    • German trade surplus declined as exports dropped -1.8% m/m in August.
    • ECB’s Rehn plays down divisions at ECB, banks on Lagarde to heal the rift. The Governing Council member said the FT story that said Draghi ignored advice from his own officials to push through the restart of asset purchases was “greatly exaggerated”, adding that Lagarde’s team-building ability should help to bridge the splits at the council.
    • The WTI future fell back to $52.54 per barrel.
    Charts of the day

    [​IMG]

    Technician’s Corner
    • EURUSD rally above 1.099 in the European open. The 1.1000 level remains key for EURUSD, with Wednesday marking the fifth consecutive session that EURUSD has tried and failed to break through the level. A decisive close above this level could strengthen the positive bias for EUR.
    • USDJPY was a bit stronger through the Asia session, rallying to 107.76 highs, and remaining above the 107.40 since then. Better risk taking levels brought buyers in, as hopes for progress on the US/China trade war got a lift into Thursday’s high-level meetings in Washington. China said that it was open to a partial trade agreement. Given the history of the talks however, a smooth outcome is anything but guaranteed, and Yen bears will have to remain on their toes.
    • USDCAD headed to 1.3310 down from Asian highs of 1.3344. The modest sell-off came as oil prices rallied on news there may be some progress on the US-China trade front. The 200-day moving average at 1.3288 remains a good support level, with the pairing holding above the level for nearly a week now. Further oil price gains could see a break though, with the next downside target being the 1.3260-70 region.
    Main Macro Events Today

    • Gross Domestic Product and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 08:30) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. August’s GDP is expected to lower to 0% following the 0.3% reading from last month. Meanwhile, Industrial and Manufacturing Production will be out as well. These two indices are expected to have fallen, with both providing a downwards contribution of 0.1% m/m in August.
    • ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 11:30) – Event of the Week –The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, provide information with regards to the policymakers’ rationale behind their decisions. In the last ECB meeting, ECB not only cut the deposit rate but also announced a new open-ended asset purchase program, worth EUR 20 bln a month, while removing the time frame in the rate guidance.
    • Consumer Price Index ex Energy and Food (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Consumer Price Index is suggestive of how the economy is performing, with expectations standing flat for the September headline release. A 0.2% core price increase is expected, following respective August readings of 0.1% and 0.3%.
    Support and Resistance levels

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  10. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

    Joined:
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    592
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    0
    Date : 21st October 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st October 2019.


    [​IMG]

    The week ahead will definitely not be a quite one, with high anxiety on Brexit, the last ECB policy meeting before Mario draghi hand over the ECB presidency to Christine Lagarde and few significant US data prior FED on October 30.

    Monday – 21 October 2019

    • Producer Price Index (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German PPI is expected to drop to -0.2% for September. As expected readings would result in a y/y loss of 0.3% for headline PPI, versus a 0.3% pace for August.
    Tuesday – 22 October 2019

    • Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canadian sales are expected to have increased by 0.6% m/m in August compared to 0.4% m/m in July, with the ex-autos component down -0.3%.
    • Existing Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:00) – Home sales have regained their status as an important indicator after the financial crisis and can have a strong effect on the markets. The release is expected to record a slight -0.2% pull-back in September to a 5.480 mln pace, after a bounce to 5.490 mln in August. In Q2, we saw an average sales pace of 5.287 mln, and we expect a better 5.463 mln pace in Q3.
    Thursday – 24 October 2019

    • Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 08:30-09:00) – September PMIs showed a marked contraction in manufacturing activity and a sharp slowdown in services sector growth. This picture is likely to be seen again in the preliminary readings for October, as German Manufacturing PMI has been forecast at 40 and composite at 49.2, which it is still below neutral. Meanwhile, Services PMI is expected to fall to 51.2. The overall Markit for Eurozone is seen at 49.4, signalling stagnation and highlighting the risk that the weakness in manufacturing sectors is spreading.
    • Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (EUR, GMT 11:45 & 12:30) – The ECB is widely expected to keep policy settings on hold after Draghi’s parting shot at the last meeting. The outgoing president pushed through another deposit rate cut and an open ended asset purchase program against the opposition of some of the more senior national central bank heads and incoming president Lagarde will face the task of uniting the board and dealing with growing demands for a comprehensive revision of the ECB’s policy setting framework and in particular the inflation target. Draghi’s last press conference meanwhile will likely focus heavily on calls for fiscal measures to boost the economy in a challenging international environment.
    • Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to fall -1.8% in September, after gains of 0.2% in August, thanks to an expected transportation orders drop. Boeing orders rose to a still-lean 25 from 18 in August.
    • Services and Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – Preliminary Manufacturing are expected to slip in October, to 50.1 from 51.1, while Services PMIs are likely to rise to 51.3 from 50.9, indicating a slowdown in the sector that has been hit by global trade tensions.
    Friday – 25 October 2019

    • German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – In September, the German IFO business confidence came in slightly higher than expected at 94.6. In October, however, the overall business climate reading is seen slightly lower at 94.4. The more forward looking expectations reading is anticipated at 91.8 from 90.8.
    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     

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