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Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by HFblogNews, May 29, 2017.

  1. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 17th February 2020

    Events to Look Out For Next Week 17th February 2020.


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    Uncertainties over the extent of the economic damage from the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) will keep the markets on shaky footing near term. Elsewhere, focus will be on Europe following Germany’s economic stagnation in Q4 last year as seen today. Looking ahead, ZEW exports and manufacturing remain in the spotlight. That said, further contraction on these leaves the risk that the labour market will start to suffer. The balance of risks is clearly tilted to the downside, and not just for Germany’s economy.

    Monday – 17 February 2020
    • Eurogroup Meeting
    • US Bank Holiday – US banks will be closed in observance of Presidents’ Day – NYSE, Nasdaq and Bond markets are all fully closed.
    Tuesday – 18 February 2020
    • RBA Minutes (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The RBA minutes will provide more insight on the views the Australian Central Bank has about the economy.
    • Average Earnings and Unemployment (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Earnings are expected to have slowed by 3.1% in the last quarter of 2019, while the ILO Unemployment Rate for the 3 months to December is seen steady at 3.8%.
    • ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – German Economic Sentiment for February is projected at 15.0 from the 26.7 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany declines further. The overall Eurozone reading though is expected to rise to 30.0 from 25.6.
    • Trade Balance (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Japanese imports should decrease -15.8% y/y in January, compared to -4.9% in December, in expectation of lower domestic consumption. Overall, the trade balance is expected to have worsened in January.
    Wednesday – 19 February 2020
    • Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Prices are expected to have eased in January, with overall inflation expected to stand unchanged at 1.3% y/y, and core at 1.5% from 1.4% y/y last month.
    • Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Prices are expected to have improved to 0.1% in January following a flat CPI in December. The overall inflation should have expanded in January to a 2.2% y/y, matching December’s reading.
    • FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 19:00) – The FOMC minutes will provide more insight on the views the FED has about the economy.
    Thursday – 20 February 2020
    • Employment Data (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Employment change s.a. is expected to have increased by 31K in Australia in January, compared to 28.9K in December. The unemployment rate is expected to have increased to 5.2%.
    • Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Following the unexpected 0.6% m/m contraction in UK retail sales in December, Retail Sales are expected to grow by 0.6% in January.
    • ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 12:30) –The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, provide information with regard to the policymakers’ rationale behind their decisions.
    • National CPI Index (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The Japanese price index should fall to 0.7% on a y/y basis, compared to 0.8% in December.
    Friday – 21 February 2020
    • EU PMIs (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Both manufacturing and services February PMIs are expected to have dropped, leaving the composite at 51.0, down from 51.3 in the preliminary release for February. In Germany meanwhile, composite PMI should slow to 50.7 from 51.2.
    • UK Service PMI (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The final services PMI for January was unexpectedly revised up, to 53.9 from 52.9 in the preliminary estimate, and the highest level in 16 months.
    • Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – CPI inflation is forecasted to hold at 1.4% y/y as seen in January.
    • Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Core Canadian sales are anticipated to have risen by 0.4% m/m in December, compared to 0.2% m/m in November.
    • US PMIs (USD, GMT 14:45) – The Manufacturing PMI is expected to have increased to 52.5 in February, compared to 51.9 in January, while the Services PMI is expected to have slowed to 52.9.
    • Existing Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:45) – We expect a 0.4% rise in existing home sales in January to a 5.560 mln pace, after a rise to 5.540 mln in December. Pending home sales have grown substantially since Q4 of 2018, though we saw a big -4.9% pull-back in December.
    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  2. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 18th February 2020.

    UK Week Ahead - 18th February


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    The data calendar this week is quite busy, featuring, in chronological order, monthly labour market data today, January inflation figures (Wednesday), January retails sales (Thursday), and the preliminary January PMI surveys (Friday).

    The UK employment is anticipated to hold steady at 3.8% in December data, though the average household income to dip to a 3.1% y/y rate in the three months to December. The headline CPI has forecasted to remain unchanged at 1.3% y/y rate, which is well off the BoE’s 2.0% target, though would fit the central bank’s projections. A 0.6% m/m rebound in retail sales is expected following the 0.6% contraction in December. As for the preliminary PMI data, the market consensus if for a dip in the headline composite reading, to 52.7 from 53.3, with service sector expansion seen slowing after the acceleration in January, and manufacturing sector activity dipping back into mild contraction.

    Overall, the as-expected data will affirm a picture of a post-election rebound in activity. This, combined with markets anticipating a fiscally expansive 2020-21 budget presentation from the government in March, should keep the pound underpinned. The impact of the coronavirus hasn’t, by anecdotal measures, been much as yet.

    On the Brexit front, concerns persist. The government has clearly signalled that it aims for divergence from the EU, and leave, without a new trading agreement if necessary, the Brexit transition period at the end of the year. This would imply the UK shifting to WTO trading terms and conditions, which would erode terms of trade. Bear in mind that when the UK leaves transition phase, it won’t just be leaving the EU’s single market and customs union, but also the 40 free trade agreement that the Union has around the globe.

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    In currency market meanwhile, Cable has continued to consolidate gains seen mid last week following signs that the government is gearing up a fiscally expansive policy. The pair has pullback to 1.3000 area, off from the two-week high of last Thursday at 1.3069.

    On the year-to-date, and from the mid-December election, the Pound has been trading mixed versus the other main currencies, lacking domestically generated directional bias. Political developments have seen UK Prime Minister Johnson strengthen his power, most notably with last week’s resignation of Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid, who was replaced by Rishi Sunak, which effectively green lights a fiscally expansive policy to finance major infrastructure projects (details are due to be announced at the government’s 2020-21 budget presentation in March).

    Available January data out of the UK have also confirmed a rebound in economic activity as the fog of political uncertainty cleared following the general election. On the negative side of the balance are persisting concerns about Brexit.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  3. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 20th February 2020.

    Yen tumble continues - 20th February


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    The Yen has continued to tumble, and is showing a near 2% decline against the Dollar from yesterday’s opening levels.USDJPY printed a 10-month high at 112.10, just 28 pips away from its 10-month high, and EURJPY posted a 2-week high, at 121.00.

    There have been reports over the last day of major fund managers cutting yen longs, including against short regional Asian currency hedge positions, though most Asian currencies came under fairly heavy pressure today amid concerns about the coronavirus outbreak spreading regionally at an increased rate. There has also been talk of Japanese funds buying US Treasuries. While China reported a large drop in new coronavirus cases, just as the PBoC delivered an expected rate cut, South Korea and Japan reported increases in new cases.

    This news led to a mixed performance among Asian equity markets, with China outperforming while other benchmark indices sputtered. Trying to call the point of peak contagion, and thereby the peak of economic disruption, is tough, though the consensus seems to be that it will happen in March or April, aided by the arrival of warmer weather in the northern hemisphere (although scientists aren’t exactly sure if warm weather will have the same quelling effect as it does on flu and cold viruses).

    Japan’s Q4 GDP data, released on Monday, disappointed, showing a 1.6% q/q contraction versus the median forecast for -0.9%. Q3 data were also revised down, and the figures came amid expectations for a dismal current quarter performance given the impact of measures to contain the virus outbreak.

    There is a risk that USDJPY might sharply reverse gains should risk appetite in global markets deteriorate and sustain. Intraday meanwhile, momentum indicators continue their positive configuration, suggesting that despite the fact that the asset reached overbought territory there is still room to the upside. Stochastics slopes into overbought area and MACD extends above signal line suggesting strengthening of positive bias, whilst ATR posted a 16 pips move. Some correction could be seen ahead of US session, with immediate Support at 112.00 and 111.58 (yesterday’s peak), however the overall outlook remains positive. Resistance sits at 2019 peak , i.e. 112.38 and at 112.66 (R2 of the day).

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  4. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 21st February 2020.

    GBPUSD – A Bear Trap? 21st February


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    GBPUSD, H4
    This pair has been down significantly for two days to a new two-month low at 1.2848, although the UK economic data was relatively positive on both days. On Wednesday (February 19) it was retail prices, PPI and CPI, all of which came out well, and strengthened the GBP for a short time. However, shortly after the key data announcement the pair continued to plummet heavily into and during the US market. Wednesday closed down around 78 pips and Thursday (February 20) was the same, as the UK Retail Sales numbers came out positive. But the pair still closed down more than 35 pips as the Dollar remained dominant.

    US economic data also came out well on both days, and the US Dollar Index managed to reach an almost 3 year high at 99.79, while Brexit trade negotiations between the UK and the EU began to turn around again. In the case that the UK may have to leave the EU without a deal after the French Finance Minister has come out to comment that “we are separated”.

    From a technical perspective, the breakout of the support zone yesterday (February 20) at 1.2880 caused the H4 time frame to print signs of a bear trap, which must continue to develop to see if the pair can go up or not. In the Day time frame, yesterday the price came down to test the key support at the EMA 200 line and bounce back up. This makes today’s first support level 1.2880. If the price goes down and is able to pass this level, the next support level will be at yesterday’s low at around 1.2850, but if the price continues to rise there is resistance waiting at 1.2925 and 1.2950.

    However, today on the economic calendar there is still important economic data waiting. At 16:30, the UK announces PMI numbers for both manufacturing and services. At 21.45 hrs onwards, the United States will announce PMI and monthly home sales figures for January.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Chayut Vachirathanakit
    Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Thailand
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  5. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 24th February 2020

    Events to Look Out For Next Week 24th February 2020.


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    The economic data has been and will continue to be overshadowed by the Covid-19 outbreak. The week ahead starts light, with the German Business Sentiment Index and Chinese Retail Sales on Monday. Leading indicators dominate the releases, but the event of the week is the US GDP and Consumer Confidence, which should shed light on whether the epidemic is visible in the data globally.

    Monday – 24 February 2020
    • Japan – Emperor’s Birthday
    • Retail Sales (CNY, GMT N/A) – China’s retail trade growth stood at 8 percent year-on-year in December 2019. However a strong decline is expected for January, following the recent releases indicating that new car sales plunged 92% in China in February and airline traffic is expected to post the first drop since 2011 amid heavy virus containment measures in China.
    • German IFO (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The German Business Sentiment Index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. February’s numbers are expected to incline.
    Tuesday – 25 February 2020
    • Leading Economic Index (JPY, GMT 05:00) – The index is expected to show no change in the outlook of the Japanese economy and stand at 91.6.
    • Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German GDP is expected to have fallen by 0.3% on an annualized rate in the last quarter of the year, compared to 1.0% growth in Q3.
    • Conference Board Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 15:00) – Consumer Confidence is expected to have increased to 132.4 compared to 131.6 in the previous month.
    Wednesday – 26 February 2020
    • New Home Sales (USD, GMT 15:00) – The housing recovery should extend into 2020, assuming that mortgage rates remain low and Fed policy remains accommodative. The January new home sales should post a 2.3% climb to a 710k pace, after a dip to a 694k rate in December, versus a 12-year high of 730k in September.
    • Trade Balance (NZD, GMT 21:45) – The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. It will be interesting to see whether the New Zealand trade balance already posts an impact from the epidemic.
    Thursday – 27 February 2020
    • Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 13:30) – US preliminary GDP growth for Q4 is expected to trim to 2.0% from 2.1%.
    • Durable Goods (USD, GMT 13:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to fall -1.5% in January with a -4.7% drop in transportation orders. Defense orders should fall by -29%, following the 101.4% December surge. Boeing orders declined to zero planes, following a dismal 3 planes in January.
    • Tokyo Core CPI and Unemployment Rate (JPY, GMT 23:30) – Tokyo CPI is usually a good proxy for the Japanese economy’s overall inflation rate. In February, the CPI ex Food is expected to have stood at 0.9% y/y. The unemployment rate is expected to have climbed to 2.3% from 2.2% in December.
    • Retail Sales (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Following a precipitous 3-month dive in October -December, due to a prolonged hit to exports from soft global demand and a slide in consumer spending following a nationwide tax hike, January’s Retail Sales are expected to drop to -1.1% on a y/y basis.
    Friday – 28 February 2020
    • Unemployment Rate (EUR, GMT 08:55) – The German unemployment rate is expected to have remained at 5% in February.
    • Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 13:00) – The German HICP inflation could rise to 0.3% m/m for February from the drop seen at -0.6% m/m last month.
    • Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 13:30) – A sharp slowing in Canada’s real GDP growth rate to 1.2% (q/q, saar) is expected in Q4 following the 1.3% Q3 growth. This should not add to the backing for a rate cut for the Bank of Canada.
    • Personal Income (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 0.3% rise in personal income in January is anticipated after a 0.2% increase in December, alongside a 0.2% rise in consumption that follows a 0.3% December gain.
    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  6. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 28th February 2020.

    “Fear” dominates the market 28th February


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    “Fear” dominates the market – The COVID-19 virus has cropped up in sub-Saharan Africa and New Zealand for the first time. Markets remain firmly in the grip of virus fears and global stock markets continue to sell off globally.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  7. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 02nd March 2020.

    Hopes of coordinated Central Banks help! 02nd March


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    Bonds rallied and stock markets looked somewhat better as unscheduled statements from both the BoJ and the Fed sparked speculation of coordinated global central bank cuts.

    Fed Chairman Powell was already forced to issue a statement on Friday saying the bank will take appropriate action to support the economy and the BoJ followed over the weekend. The BoJ followed over the weekend, saying that it will “strive to provide ample liquidity and ensure stability in financial markets through appropriate market operations and asset purchases”. The BoJ already offered to buy 500 billion Yen of government bonds via repurchase agreements to provide liquidity and the comments and actions helped local stock markets to recover earlier losses.

    A rate cut from the RBA in Australia tomorrow is now seen as pretty much a done deal and speculation that there will be a coordinated move from global central banks this week has helped bond as well as stock markets.

    Stock markets had initially been under pressure this morning also due to the weak Chinese manufacturing PMI readings highlighted the impact of virus disruptions. China’s February manufacturing PMI plunged a surprising 14.3 points to 35.7, a record low. This is one of the first pieces of data reflecting the impact of COVID-19, and obviously it’s not good. This new nadir beats the prior figure of 38.8 from November 2008. It’s also the steepest drop on the books. Bloomberg cited Nomura’s chief China economist Lu Ting who noted the data might even have been worse. A rise in delivery times helped boost the index, but the longer delivery time was a function of the COVID-related shutdowns and transportation dislocations, and not due to a jump in demand. Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing index tumbled 24.5 points to 29.6 in February from 54.1 in January. It’s also the lowest on record.

    However the potential of coordinated global Central Bank action have helped both Bond and Equity markets to overcome the PMI weakness. JPN225 gained 1%, while the Hang Seng lifted 0.78% and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp rallied 3.7% and 3.4%. The GER30 and UK100 futures are up 1.4% and 1.8% respectively, while US futures are posting gains of 0.4-0.6%. In FX markets EURUSD is trading at 1.1043 and the pound is at 1.625 against the EUR and 1.2837 against the Dollar. The USDJPY lifted to 108.23, after the BoJ statement, while USOIL future traded at $46.10.

    Elsewhere, ECB officials have argued that it is too early to make a decision on an appropriate reaction to virus developments, but clearly with markets looking increasingly fragile central bankers will have to issue at least some assurance. German Economy Minister Altmeier meanwhile repeated that the government will address the implication of virus disruptions, saying he will discuss stimulus measures with the finance minister. Europe also has to fear another refugee crisis now after Turkey “opened” its borders in what looks like an attempt to force Nato’s hand over Turkey’s action in Syria. Against that background the official start of EU trade talks with the U.K. almost seems to fade into the background, but a Bloomberg source story highlighted again that the risk of a breakdown is pretty high, which leaves the risk that the transition period ends in December without a deal in place firmly on the table.

    Today’s data calendar focuses mainly on final manufacturing PMI readings for February, which are widely expected to confirm preliminary numbers. G7 finance ministers will hold teleconference this week to coordinate their response to the virus outbreak.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  8. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 06th March 2020.

    FX Update – March 6 – NFP Day! 06th March


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    USDIndex, H1 & Daily
    The dollar has continued to weaken versus most other currencies, correlating with the sharp decline in US Treasury yields.

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    The USDIndex (DXY) earlier printed a fresh two-month low at 96.10, extending a decline from the 35-month high that was seen on February 20th, at 99.91. EURUSD has concurrently posted a seven-month peak, at 1.1290, which is the new culmination of the biggest two-week gain the pair has seen since February 2016. USDJPY has been undermined by both Dollar weakness and concurrent safe-haven driven outperformance in the Yen, and fell to a six-month low at 105.75. EURJPY and other Yen crosses also printed fresh lows. AUDJPY posted a four-day low, and is nearing the 11-year low the cross saw last week. AUDUSD has remained relatively buoyant, holding above recent 11-year lows on the back of the US Dollar’s weakness. The COVID-19 virus, while having so far disrupted some other economies more than the US (China, Japan and South Korea, for instance), is proving to be a leveller of the hitherto relatively robust US economy, with several states (California, Washington and Maryland) now having declared a state of emergency.

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  9. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 09th March 2020

    Events to Look Out For Next Week 09th March 2020.


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    Leading indicators such as US Inflation and GDP from Europe and the US dominate the releases next week. The highlight of the week is the ECB rate decision, while markets are going to remain focused on the threat Covid-19 poses.

    Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.

    Monday – 09 March 2020
    • Industrial Production and Trade Balance (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German Industrial Production growth is expected to have stood at 1.5% seasonally adjusted m/m in January, compared to the -3.5% decline seen in December.
    • Housing Starts (CAD, GMT 12:15) – Canada’s improvement in January housing starts tracks the expected housing boost to Q1 GDP. In February, the index is expected to slip lower to 205K from 213.2K.
    Tuesday – 10 March 2020

    • Producer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – Chinese February PPI is expected to have remained at the same levels as in January, at 0.1% y/y.
    • Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – Chinese inflation is expected to drop in February as coronavirus cases soar. The overall outcome is seen at 4.9% from 5.4%, while the monthly reading should be at 0.8% from 1.4% last month.
    • Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Eurozone seasonally adjusted GDP for Q4 2019 is expected to remain unchanged on an annualized and quarterly rate.
    Wednesday – 11 March 2020

    • Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The UK economy’s most important figure, GDP is expected to be lower at 0.2% m/m following the 0.3% reading for December.
    • Industrial and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The two indices are expected to have both grown to 0.4% m/m in January, with industrial production recovering significantly from the 0.1% in the prior month.
    • Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – Expectations have been set flat for February headline CPI figure with a 0.2% core price increase, following respective January readings of 0.1% and 0.2%. As-expected February figures would result in a headline y/y increase of 2.2%, down from 2.5% in January. Core prices should set a 2.3% y/y rise for a fourth consecutive month. We have seen an up-tilt in y/y gains into Q1 of 2020 due to harder comparisons, though this lift is being capped in February and March by price weakness related to the Covid-19 outbreak.
    Thursday – 12 March 2020

    • ECB Interest Rate Decision and Conference (EUR, GMT 12:45 & 13:30) – The ECB is under pressure to step in as virus developments hit the markets. The ECB may have planned to focus on the strategic policy review this year, but recent market developments have increased the pressure on the central bank to act sooner rather than later to address the impact of Covid-19. There isn’t much room for rate cuts, although a 10 bp cut in the deposit rate is a possibility and now pretty widely expected. If the ECB goes down that route it will likely expand the exclusion band to limit the hit for banks. In this situation where supply disruptions are increasingly apparent, lower rates may not help much, but the move would have a signaling effect, which could help to bolster sentiment.
    Friday – 13 March 2020

    • Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 07:00) – The German HICP inflation for February is seen steady at 1.7% y/y.
    • Michigan Sentiment (USD, GMT 15:00) – US consumer sentiment was revised up to 101.0 in the final February print from the University of Michigan survey, versus the 100.9 in the preliminary, and it’s up 1.2 points from January’s 99.8. This is the highest since March 2018 (which was the best since January 2004). The preliminary March Michigan sentiment reading is anticipated to decline to 97. On the flip side, a better than expected report, though it’s not likely to assuage COVID-19 fears.
    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
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    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 11th March 2020.

    Central Banks – Race to the Bottom – Again? 11th March


    [​IMG]

    GBPUSD, H1
    The latest Central Bank to act (in another surprise and unscheduled announcement) is the Bank of England. The BoE slashed rates by 50 basis points (bp) to address Covid-19 impact. The BoE cut bank rate to 0.25% from 0.75%, saying that the decision was made at a special meeting on March 10. There will also be a new funding scheme to support lending to small businesses impacted by the fallout from the virus. Although that is the plan these funds (expected to be around 100 million GBP) usually end up supporting the UK mortgage market. At the press conference, just completed, Carney emphasized that the total package was a “big package, a big package” a number of times and clearly wanted that to be the clear message. But also caveating the message that the COVID-19 impact is likely to be short, sharp potentially significant but ultimately short-lived. The first emergency move since the financial crisis highlights the impact of the virus on the economic outlook and comes a week after the Fed cut rates by 50 bp and a day before the ECB meeting, which is also expected to bring additional easing measures. The decision was unanimous and the bank said in a statement that “although the magnitude of the economic shock from Covid-19 is highly uncertain, activity is likely to weaken materially in the United Kingdom over the coming months”.

    President Trump continued the pressure on the Fed yesterday with tweets aimed squarely at Jay Powell and the slow response (in his opinion) of the FED to cut rates. The ECB is expected to cut rates by at least 10bp tomorrow and with more stimulus also likely. The FOMC and BOJ also have scheduled meetings next week with more action by both anticipated, then if not before. Volatility and uncertainty persist and volumes in markets all remain elevated.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     

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