Date : 30th March 2020. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th March 2020. All major countries across the world are effectively locked down now as virus developments remain in focus, with ever bigger aid packages. The data this week especially from the US were highly infected by the pandemic. Hence, as disruptions from COVID-19 have begun to catch up to the soft data measures, the impact will likely be greater in the late-month measures of sentiment. Recession fears could be further escalated if we see any effect in the March US jobs. Monday – 30 March 2020 Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The German HICP preliminary inflation for March is anticipated to decline at 1.4% y/y from 1.7% y/y. Pending Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:00) – Pending home sales rebounded in January to 5.2% m/m, however, for February we could see a big -0.3% pull-back. Tuesday – 31 March 2020 Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:00) – The NBS Manufacturing PMI is expected to massively decline to 4.4 in March from 35.7, as a subsequence of the shut down after the lunar new year holiday. Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 06:00) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q4’s GDP is expected to be unchanged at 0% q/q and 1.1% y/y. Unemployment data (EUR, GMT 07:55) – The German unemployment rate in March is expected to have increased to 5.1% from 5.0%, while unemployment change is expected to have peaked to 30K from February’s drop to -10K. Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) –HCPI inflation dropped back to 1.2% y/y in February from 1.4% y/y in the previous month, while core inflation actually moved up to 1.2% y/y from 1.1% y/y in January. This month’s core is expected unchanged, while HICP is anticipated lower at 0.8% y/y/. Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada GDP results for January are seen to be slowing down, at a monthly rate of 0.2% compared to 0.3% last month. CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Conference Board Index is expected to have decreased to 121.0, compared to 130.7 in the previous month. Wednesday – 01 April 2020 Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to spike to 46.5 from 40.3 in February. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – The ADP Employment survey is seen at 216k for March compared to the 183K in February. ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to fall to 43.0 in March from 50.1 in February, compared to a 14-year high of 60.8 in August of 2018. EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (USOIL, GMT 14:30) Thursday – 02 April 2020 Trade balance (USD, GMT 12:30) – The US trade deficit narrowed -6.7% to -$45.3 bln in January following the 11.0% December jump to -$48.6 bln. February’s one is expected to widen further. Friday – 03 April 2020 Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) – February’s Retail sales could be improved by 0.4%, following a 0.3% January loss. Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – A -100k March nonfarm payroll drop is anticipated, following 273k increases in both February and January. This is based on assumptions such as the -20k factory jobs drop in March, and a 47k boost from assumed Census hiring as this temporary job count starts to climb more rapidly. The jobless rate should rise to 3.8% from 3.5%, as COVID-19 disruptions start to take their toll. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to fall to 49.0 from 57.3 in February, versus a recent low of 53.5 in September of 2019 and a 13-year high of 61.2 in September of 2018. The “soft data” measures are finally starting to show a hit from coronavirus disruptions and the emerging OPEC price war, and these hits should be bigger for the late-March reports than the early-March reports. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. 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