Date : 13th April 2020. Events To Look Out For This Week The shortened week starts with major markets closed on Easter Monday, but overcompensates on Wednesday and Thursday with the BoC rate decision and Press Conference, Australian employment data and Inflation from the EU. Tuesday – 14 April 2020 Trade Balance (CNY, GMT N/A) – The Chinese trade balance is expected to turn out positive in March, standing at $18 bln, compared to the deficit of $7 billion in February. Wednesday – 15 April 2020 Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are expected to have declined to -3.4% for headline retail sales and -0.9% for the ex-auto figure, following February dips of -0.5% for the headline and -0.4% ex-autos. Event of the week – BoC Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference (CAD, GMT 14:00 – 15:15) – On March 27, the Bank of Canada cut 50 bps to 0.25%. A rate reduction to the 0.25% setting was widely expected either at or before the April 15 announcement date. Hence in this week’s meeting no change of rate is expected. As they stated at the time: “This unscheduled rate decision brings the policy rate to its effective lower bound and is intended to provide support to the Canadian financial system and the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic.” The Bank launched two new programs: 1. Commercial Paper Purchase Program (CPPP) to help alleviate strains in short-term funding markets and thereby preserve a key source of funding for businesses and 2. Acquisition of GoC securities in the secondary market, with purchases beginning with a minimum of C$5 bln per week across the yield curve. The Bank is coordinating with the G7 and fiscal authorities and “stands ready to take further action as required to support the Canadian economy and financial system and to keep inflation on target.” Thursday – 16 April 2020 Labour Market Data (AUD, GMT 01:30) – As the world changed in March as the pandemic prompted widespread shutdowns of economies across the globe, employment change for March is expected to have significantly decreased to -40K from 26.7K in February, while the unemployment rate is expected to have increased to 5.5% in March, compared to 5.1% in the previous month. Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German HICP preliminary inflation for March is anticipated to remain unchanged at 1.3% y/y. Housing Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should dip to a 1.300 mln pace in March, after falling to a 1.599 mln pace in February from a 14-year high of 1.624 mln in January. Permits are expected to fall to 1.360 mln in March, after dipping to 1.452 mln in February. Permits have followed a solid growth path since Q2 of 2019, alongside strength in starts. Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – The disruptions from COVID-19 and the government’s policies including containment and relief measures are expected to continue boosting claims to unprecedented levels. Philly Fed Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Philly Fed index is seen falling to -35.0 versus a 37-month high of 36.7 in February. The March reading for the Philly Fed marked a low back to July ’12. April’s reading is now expected to decline further, to -26. The markets will focus on the ongoing hit from the COVID-19 outbreak and associated mandatory business closures in the April “soft data” reports. The indexes should bounce when various closure orders are lifted, but we have yet to see when this will be. Friday – 17 April 2020 Gross Domestic Product (CNY, GMT 02:00) – The first Quarter of 2020 growth is expected to slow down significantly, confirming the damage the pandemic has inflicted on economies in that part of the world. The reading is expected at -10.0% q/q from the 1.5% q/q seen for the Q3 and Q4 of 2019 . EU CPI inflation (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Both the core and the overall CPI inflation rates are expected to accelerate in a monthly basis to 1.1% and 0.5% respectively. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 14th April 2020. Risk on, Risk off… EURJPY, in contrast to EURUSD, has nudged modestly lower on the back of a moderate safe-haven bid whıch boosted Yen. This has drıfted the pair to the mid 117.50, nearing last week’s bottom and extending its action far away from the 20-day SMA but also significantly below the midline of the 2020 downchannel for a second consecutive day. Yesterday’s high at 118.68 has so far remained unchallenged, while yesterday’s bottom has not broken yet to confirm the continuation of decline. Risk-off conditions prevailed, weighing on the pair, though the move lower may have been exacerbated by European holiday thinned markets. Now, however, the global markets are returning to full participation following the long weekends in many financial centres in Europe and Asia-Pacific. Economic data has been a secondary consideration even as the reports begin to show the depth of the devastation wrought by the shuttering of the economy last month — the huge declines expected in activity have been realized, and then some. Last week, to some relief, European and Eurozone finance ministers finally managed to agree on a joint support package to address the immediate costs of measures designed to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. There are now a number of states in the US and a number of countries in the Eurozone, including Spain and Italy, that looking at a phased reopening in economies. Hence this is expected to keep the EUR in a choppy trading pattern in the near term between 117.30-117.93, unless sellers manage to direct a decisive move below 117.30. This could trigger March lows and a Lower Bollinger Band pattern at 116.11-116.40. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 15th April 2020. FX Update – April 15 – Commodity Currencies Reverse. The commodity currencies have come under pressure with stock markets taking a step back in Asia today, and with USA500 futures showing declines of over 0.5%. The Canadian Dollar has also declined, setting USDCAD up for its first up day in a week, with the pair posting a 2-day high at 1.3960, as oil prices remain on the back foot and as US Dollar. USOil prices have also remained heavy after it printed a 2-week low at $19.95 late yesterday, with the OPEC++ group’s near 10 mln barrel per day output cut, and hints of bigger cuts to dome, doing little to convince crude markets that producers have the will to cut production sufficiently to plug the massive supply/demand gap amid the prevailing lockdowns across many global economies. The IMF forecast the world economy will see its sharpest contraction since the 1930s depression, which by now will not surprise many, while a study from the Harvard School of Public Health highlighted that the return to normal may be a long road, saying (of the US) that “intermittent distancing may be required into 2020 unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment of vaccine becomes available.” Lets flip back to Canadian dollar, which its outlook so far for USDCAD was negative however a close today above 1.3990 could form a morning star pattern which is a bullish sign suggesting a potential reversal of the asset. Elsewhere, the Dollar and Yen have posted moderate gains versus the Euro and most other currencies. EURUSD drifted to a low at 1.0923.. The pair remains rejected the 50-day SMA and the 61.8% retracement level set from the upleg at the end of MArch. The overall picture remains positive as long as it sustains a move above the confluence of 50% Fib. level and 20-day SMA, at 1.0891. Intraday however the asset is oversold, hene a consolidation or a correction might follow since the asset closed the hour outside Bollinger bands. Further decline could be triggered is the asset breaks the 1.0925 level (S1). Additionally, the biggest movers have been AUDUSD, NZDUSD, AUDJPY and NZDJPY, which have all racked up losses of well over 1%. AUDUSD, after a run of 7 consecutive days highs, has printed a 2-day low at 0.6325, reaching the S3 of the day. The pair still remains up by over 15% from the 17-year low that was printed on March 19th. However, intraday it turned below all moving averages and crossed below Ichimoku cloud, with three black crows and momentum indicators negatively configured suggesting further bearish bias, we might see the asset extending its move further southwards. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 16th April 2020. FX Update April 16 – 20 million US Citizens Unemployed? Trading Leveraged Products is risky USDJPY, H1 Relatively narrow ranges have been prevailing so far today in currency markets, into early trading in Europe. The Dollar has retained a bid, edging out fresh highs against the Australian and Canadian dollars, though remaining shy of the highs seen yesterday against the Euro and Pound. Stock markets in Asia started off in decline before either paring or more than recovering losses, while S&P 500 futures are showing a gain of nearly 1%, reversing some of the 2.2% decline the cash version of the index saw yesterday. Oil prices have remained heavy, with WTI benchmark futures sinking back under $20.00, keeping yesterday’s 21-year low at $19.20 in the frame. In news, Japan is reportedly set to declare a national emergency in the face of a spike in confirmed coronavirus cases, while other countries, including Germany, Denmark, Norway and Austria, are taking first steps to loosen lockdown measures. Australia released better than expected March jobs data, though this was quickly discarded as being a false signal as the data period didn’t fully cover the impact of economic lockdowns. Similarly, a 4.3% drop in the UK’s BRC retail sales figure in March significantly understated the true current picture as it captured a surge in sales in the couple of weeks leading up to the nation going into lockdown. The US will today release weekly jobless claims for the week to April 11th, a data series that has been best capturing the real-time impact of virus-containing measures in the world’s biggest economy. The median forecast is for another big surge, of 5,000k, though even this would mark a deceleration as states catch up with the processing of claims from the late-March to early-April period. Expectations vary significantly this week from lows of 1,000k to 7,000k. The outlook remains uncertain, with close to 20 million US citizens likely to be claiming unemployment benefit for the first time in the last month, representing over 13% of the workforce. However, a phased, partial reopening of economies is starting to happen, with President Trump expected to announce his plans later today, but it’s looking clear that the road to back to normalcy will be a long one, with a cure or vaccine not likely to be available until next year. Such a backdrop would keep the Dollar, Yen and other safe havens broadly underpinned while curtailing upside potential of commodity and emerging market currencies. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 17th April 2020. European Update | April 17. As we move towards European session and on US open, the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex has lifted from moderate losses to a 0.3% gain on the day, while the safe-have Yen is also now outperforming. COil prices have plunged to fresh decade lows, and the likes of the Australian and Canadian dollars have more than reversed intraday gains that were being seen in the Asian session. The Dollar, looks to have broken its inverse correlation with global stock market direction. European stock markets have rallied, with a 4% jump in the French CAC 40 leading the way. GER30 and UK100 are up 3.7% and 3.2% respectively and markets are in full risk on mode, with US futures posting gains of 2-3%. Asian stock markets shrugged off the first contraction in China’s economy for decades and investors are focusing on some encouraging headlines on drug trials in the battle to get Covid-19 under control. Weak data releases out of China for Q1 were overlooked and largely expected. EURUSD has dropped back amid a general bout of Dollar gains, which has pushed the pair to a 10-day low at 1.0811. The risk-on sentiment isn’t covering the full spectrum of asset classes and currencies. EURUSD at prevailing levels is a little to the south of the halfway mark of the volatile range that was seen during the height of the market panic in March. The rapid deployment of monetary stimulus measures by the Fed, and expectations for more, have impacted the Dollar in recent weeks, having satiated what had been a surge in demand for the world’s reserve currency. The EURUSD decline is mainly driven by the “safety” on dollar however the european data earlier also kept the common currency under pressure. Eurozone HICP inflation confirmed at 0.7% y/y, in line with the preliminary number and down from 1.2% y/y in the previous month. No surprise there then and the full breakdown confirmed that lower energy prices were a key factor behind the deceleration in the headline rate. Services price inflation also decelerated,while looking further ahead once lockdowns are eased goods prices are likely to accelerate amid the likely surge in demand, but large parts of the services sector will continue to struggle. European car registrations dropped 51.8% y/y in March, with Eurozone numbers down nearly 60%. Hardly a surprise considering lockdown rules across countries and the April number is likely to be worse. The main question is how strong the rebound will be once restrictions are eased and whether the sharp rise in jobless numbers will lead to a general decline in demand this year. Hence EURUSD after whipping between a 1.0637 low and a 1.1494 high in March, remain in a choppy trading pattern, lacking clear directional bias for now in the medium term. Also it worths mentioning that it moves within a descending triangle since March top. The daily indicators meanwhile continue to be negatively configured however as RSI is slopping at neutral zone since April 1st, along with the flat signal line of MACD, the medium term points consolidation. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 20th April 2020. Events To Look Out For This Week In the US, weekly jobless claims will remain every week’s highlight. In Europe and the rest of the world, meanwhile, trade and manufacturing data, along with Inflation data, will be the most data-heavy releases. Lastly, European finance ministers will meet again to discuss a way forward. Monday – 20 April 2020 PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) –The People’s Bank of China injected $100 billion into the economy through a reduction in reserve ratios for banks, while it also offered discounts to banks’ reserve ratios of between half and 1 percentage point from their original level. Tuesday – 21 April 2020 RBA Minutes and Gov. Lowe Speech (AUD, GMT 01:30 & 05:00) – The RBA minutes should provide guidance as to whether the RBA members are actually prepared for further easing. The bank in its last meeting refrained from cutting interest rates, while pledging to maintain its new (as of March) yield target on 3-year bonds at 0.25%. This, coupled with the Australian government’s fiscal response, was considered a big enough policy response to the prevailing headlines caused by domestic and global coronavirus containment measures. Average Earnings (GBP, GMT 06:00) – Average Earnings excluding bonus are expected to have grown by 3.2% in February. The ILO unemployment rate is expected to have declined slightly at 3.8% (3M). Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – German ZEW economic sentiment for April is expected to have improved slightly at -43.0, after plunging to -49.5 from 8.7 in March. Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – February is expected to have flattened (0.0%) for headline retail sales while the ex-auto figure is expected to be unchanged. Wednesday – 22 April 2020 Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 06:00) – Prices are expected to have eased in March, with overall inflation expected to stand at 1.7% y/y, and core at 1.5% from 1.7% y/y last month. Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The average of the three core CPI measures for March is expected to come out lower than last month, at 2.1% y/y from 2.2% y/y. Economic data is on the back burner as the market grapples with the fallout from COVID-19. Canada has closed its border to all but Americans. PM Trudeau revealed a stimulus plan which is worth about 1% of Canada’s economy. Thursday – 23 April 2020 European Council Meeting Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 06:00) – UK retail sales expected to finally give the first real insight into the UK’s post-lockdown economic hit. Markit PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30-08:00) – The prel. April manufacturing PMI is forecasted to register a downwards reading to 40.0 following the 44.5 last month. Services, on the flip side, are seen higher at 39.0 from 26.4. Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – US initial jobless claims fell -1,370k to 5,245k in the week ended April 11 after easing -252k to 6,615k in the week ended April 4. The disruptions from COVID-19 and the government’s policies including containment and relief measures are expected to continue boosting claims to unprecedented levels. Friday – 24 April 2020 German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – German IFO business confidence is seen drifting to 77.2after it fell back to 86.1 – the lowest reading since 2009. Germany is in lockdown, even if restrictions are still not quite as strict as in other countries, with death rates still relatively low. Still, it is clear that there will be a sharp recession. Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to fall -13.0% in March with a -23% plunge in transportation orders, after a 1.2% headline orders increase in February that benefited from a 4.6% transportation orders rebound. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 21st April 2020. FX Update – April 21 – USD Remains Bid. EURUSD, H1 Currencies have once again adopted a risk-off positioning formation as global stock and commodity markets tumble. The Yen, closely followed by the Dollar, have taken the lead in the outperforming pack while the commodity currencies have taken a lead in the underperforming group. Asian stock markets saw their biggest single-day sell-off in a month while the pan-Europe STOXX 600 equity index fell by nearly 2.5% as S&P 500 futures declined by over 1.5% after the cash version of the index closed out yesterday 1.8% for the worse. Yesterday’s oil rout spooked investors, and while some economies are starting to reopen from lockdowns, the road back to normalcy is clearly going to be a long one. Amid this backdrop, the narrow trade-weighted USD index printed a thirteen-day high at 100.37 while EURUSD concurrently ebbed to a four-day low at 1.0819. The Yen outperformed, moderately against the Dollar, but more so against the Euro and even more versus the underperforming commodity currencies. USD-JPY printed a five-day low at 107.29, while EUR-JPY forayed into 19-day low territory. AUD-JPY, a forex market barometer of risk appetite in global markets, and a currency proxy of China, declined by some 0.7% in making a two-week low at 67.40. AUD-USD printed a four-day low at 0.6270. USD-CAD rallied to a 15-day high at 1.4266. While yesterday’s rout in the expiring May WTI contract, and the aberration of negative pricing has come and gone, June futures today have been highly volatile, opening above $21.0, diving to a low at $11.79 before rebounding back above $15.00. One potential support for oil prices is the fast reducing space at crude storage facilities, which is likely to force oil producers into big output cuts. President Trump, also, said that the US is considering halting Saudi oil imports. EURUSD ebbed to a four-day low at 1.0820, with the pair driven once again by a broader move in the Dollar. EURUSD continues to trade a little to the south of the halfway mark of the volatile range that was seen during the height of the market panic in March. The rapid deployment of monetary stimulus measures by the Fed, and expectations for more, have impacted the Dollar in recent weeks, having satiated what had been a surge in demand for the world’s reserve currency. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 22nd April 2020. Gold Analysis – 22 April 2020. XAUUSD, H1 Bank of America (BofA) has a bullish view on gold and expects the prices of the precious metal to hit the $3,000 mark per ounce within the next 18 months, according to the bank’s latest report titled “The Fed can’t print gold.” (Barrons.com)¹ At the moment, everything is about the current crisis and what we can do to avoid a deeper economic recession. With the central banks providing more stimulus packages, however, the question is how banks and governments going to cover the cash pumped into the market. As we can see in the BofA report, it is true: the FED can print money, but not Gold. The FED can print money, but it cannot guarantee that it will be good enough for economic engines to restart again, as we do not know how societies will react after this storm. What if, after the international lockdown, people’s habits change and they do not go out right away to spend money on more international travel, have parties or sit in cafes, like they were doing before? In this case, retail sales and services, and, as a result, GDP, will not be able to recover to its previous numbers in a short space of time. Collective habits always lead the way in showing how an economy is going to grow, this means that the above-mentioned possibilities, does not mean that we will have a worse life or situation in the future, but simply that we will have different ways of socializing, and that, for as long as we are in the “Transition period”, safe havens will be in demand as investors decide where to invest more in the future, which will help the yellow metal and some other safe havens like the USD to grow in the middle term and even longer, perhaps for the next 1-2 years. Gold technical overview – H1 chart RSI is flat at 50. The price moved above the OBV trend line, but is also flat, while Parabolic SAR dots are forming under the candles, supporting the bulls. $1694 and $1670, the the upper and lower Bollinger bands, are the resistance and support levels at this time, while gold is trading at the very important level of 1685. Pivot point: 1682.26 Resistance levels: 1704.26 / 1719.68 Support levels: 1667.12 / 1644.84 Today, the expected trading range is between 1644.84 support and 1704.26 resistance. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 23rd April 2020. A dismal day! Eurozone April PMI numbers looked dismal, with lockdowns across Europe really hitting home this month. The manufacturing sector outperformed, but the reading still dropped to 33.6 from 44.5 in March. Similarly to Japanese numbers this morning, the services sector collapsed and the reading dropped to 11.7 from 26.4. The hospitality and tourism sectors in particular have been hit and for tourism in particular there is no chance of a quick recovery. The declines were the steepest ever recorded and new business inflows collapsed. Markit reported that “expectations of output in the coming 12 months dropped marginally below the previous nadir in March, thanks to a new record degree of pessimism in manufacturing”. Job cuts accelerated and average prices fell at the sharpest rate since June 2009. Clearly the extent of the slump is pretty scary and will add to pressure on EU heads of states, who today will discuss stimulus measures designed to kick start the recovery once restrictions have eased sufficiently. A large scale investment program financed through the European Investment Bank is expected, while the EU’s multi-annual budget although any real stimulus can also have a lasting effect once things get back to normal and when that will be depends to a large extend on virus developments, rather than a political will. Additionally, the German GfK consumer confidence dropped to -23.4 in the May reading from 2.3 in April. A dismal number again and indeed a series low that clearly reflects the impact of crisis measures and highlights that government efforts such as subsidised wages are not sufficient. The full breakdown is only available until April, but already signalled a collapse in business expectations and the willingness to buy as income expectations turn negative. Stock market sentiment was hit by the numbers and GER30 and UK100 are currently down -0.6% and -0.3% respectively. EURUSD has remained heavy, edging out a low at 1.0783. This is a move outside the 5-day range (1.0810-1.0890). Hence with momentum indicators in the medium and long term remaining strongly negative and with the asset price in a descending triangle since February, a sustenance of a decline below 1.0800 could turn the attention March lows again. However we need to see a decisive daily or weekly candle below 1.0770. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 28th April 2020. FX Update | 28 April Commodity currencies have seen moderate losses against the Dollar and other main currencies against a backdrop of sputtering low-volume stock market trading and a turn lower in Oil prices. The NZD led the way lower for the commodity group after a research note from Westpac hit a bearish chord by forecasting that the RBNZ will take the cash rate to -0.5% in November this year. RBNZ Governor Orr last week said he would not rule out negative rates, and that he was “open minded” on direct monetisation of government debt. NZDUSD dropped over 0.6% in printing a 4-day low at 0.5992. With the RBA having recently been ruling out going negative with interest rates,AUDNZDrallied to a fresh 6-month high, at 1.0754. The antipodean cross has now risen by nearly 7% since mid March. Note that weekly consumer confidence out of Australia, not normally a market shaker, posted a fourth straight week of improvement from the record low that was seen in March, although the headline is still overall pessimistic at a sub-100 reading of 85.0. Among the Dollar majors there has been little movement. EURUSD has seen little more than a 20 pip range in the lower 108.00s, holding above yesterday´s 108.08 low. USDJPY has seen a sub-20 pip range in the lower 107.00s, holding above yesterday’s 13-day low at 106.99. The BoJ boosted its JGB purchases as scheduled operation, but to little impact on the Yen. As for Oil, the hefty declines in oil prices have weighed on the Canadian Dollar, along with other oil-correlating currencies, lifting USDCAD out of a 5-day low at 1.4017 to levels above 1.4070. June WTI futures were showing a drop of 16%, at $10.66, as of early in the London session. This follows news that the United States Oil Fund LP, the largest US oil ETF, said it would sell all its front-month crude contracts to avoid further losses amid collapsing prices. Goldman Sachs research concluded last week that global oil storage capacity would be reached within three or four weeks, which, once realized, would force a 20% cut in production. Such a cut would be tantamount to 18-20 mln barrels per day, which would be on top of the 9.7 mln barrels per day cut by OPEC++ nations, which will take effect on May 1st. GS estimated it would take between four and eight weeks for crude to base, noting that the production cuts won’t be easy to reverse, which in turn would risk there being a supply deficit. USDCAD eased from overnight highs of 1.4075, basing at 1.4014 in London morning trade. Risk-on conditions have weighed on the USD generally, though another 16% drop in WTI crude could limit USDCAD’s downside potential. On a positive note, the Western Canadian Select grade of crude is reportedly trading over $6/bbl, a vast improvement from the negative numbers seen for a couple of days last week. In the big picture, oil prices will continue to drive USDCAD direction. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
