Date : 16th December 2020. FX Update – December 16 – Perky PMIs & a weaker USD. EURUSD, H1 Eurozone & UK Dec. PMIs were generally stronger than expected, with the exception of UK Services. EU Services sentiment in particular rebounded, even in Germany, which is going into a stricter form of lockdown today, which will see shops closing. The Eurozone Services PMI still suggests contraction at 47.3, but that is a marked improvement compared to the reading of 41.7 in November. Manufacturing sentiment rose to 56.6 from 55.3, which left the composite at a 2-month high of 49.8, which effectively suggests stagnation rather than contraction. Markit commented that due to the improvement in December, the fourth quarter downturn is looking less steep than initially feared. Still, as Markit also highlighted – while the prospect of vaccinations is underpinning future expectations, in the near term the environment remains challenging for many consumer-facing companies. In the UK Markit noted that “The UK economy returned to growth in December after the lockdown-driven downturn seen in November, adding to signs that the hit to the economy from the second wave of virus infections has so far been far less harsh than the first wave in the spring.” The recovery lacked vigour, however, as the service sector remained under particular strain, contracting marginally again as ongoing social distancing measures due to tiered lockdowns continued to hit many parts of the economy. Manufacturing numbers were 57.3 vs 55.9 with last month’s number being increased to 55.6, while the more important Services slipped below the key 50.0 level to 49.9 and missed expectations of 50.5, with last month’s data also being upgraded to 47.6, but remaining historically very low. The USDIndex has remained heavy, testing a new 32-month low at 90.05. EURUSD has concurrently been holding firm, breaching its 32-month highs at 1.2178, to push to 1.2210. USDJPY, now amid its fourth down day out of the last five, has ebbed to a five-week low at 103.25. As we have noted before, real interest rate differentials are imparting a bias for the Yen to gain on the Dollar, albeit modestly. The nine-month lows, seen last month at 103.17-19, are back in scope. There looks to have been a degree of position trimming in CADJPY, which has been a popular long lately, being a strong correlate of the reflation theme in global markets. The cross is showing a decline of nearly 0.5% on the day so far. USDCAD, meanwhile, has lifted back above 1.2700 to 1.2745 after yesterday printing a 32-month low at 1.2686. While oil prices have been remaining perky, with Brent benchmark prices sustaining gains above $50, upside momentum has been abating. OPEC supply is set to increase, in addition to recovering supply out of Libya, while Norwegian and US supply are also increasing. There are also expectations for Iran to strike a deal on its nuclear program with the Biden administration, which could lower sanctions that have been stifling oil exports out of the country. These supply fundamentals, along with the demand-sapping virus containing measures in many of the major northern hemisphere economies, look to be setting up oil prices for a year-end correction after six consecutive up weeks. Elsewhere, the Pound has remained buoyant, with markets factoring in prospects for the EU and UK to reach a future relationship deal as soon as this week. There hasn’t been much news from the negotiating teams, though this in itself is being taken as a sure sign that progress is being made after the EU’s von der Leyen said that a “narrow” path to agreement has come into view. Cable has printed a 12-day high at 1.3519. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 17th December 2020. Sterling & the BoE Preview. GBPUSD, Weekly The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) convened for its two-day December policy meeting yesterday, with the announcement out today (12:00 GMT). No changes to policy settings is the universal expectation, which would leave the repo rate at 0.10% and the QE total unchanged at GBP 875 bln. The central bank is clearly keeping a close eye on Brexit talks, and with a deal looking much more likely than at the same time last week, the central bank is likely to hold its horses, especially as vaccinations offer a bright spot for next year. Things can still go wrong though and the BoE will want to keep its options open for now. A no-deal situation would put the BoE into crisis-response mode, and would increase the chance of the central bank implementing a negative interest rate policy. Still, the BoE’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) affirmed on Friday that UK banks are able to withstand the shock of no-deal on top of the impact of the Covid pandemic. For many a negative interest rate policy in the UK is not the antidote and should be kept firmly in the toolbox, however, as with the protracted Brexit Withdrawal agreement and the down-to-the-wire trade deal (or no-deal), anything is possible and never rule anything out. Sterling has the bid currently and expectations are that something will be agreed and the final “fishing” issue can be put to bed. Last week, EU sources talked of a deal by December 18 (tomorrow), which still provides enough time for draft legislation to be approved by year end. Then earlier this week stories started to circulate of “partial” ratification. The fudge continues. Sterling remains bid versus the weaker USD and JPY, on the back foot versus the Antipodeans, moving higher versus the CAD & CHF and back to test 90.00 versus the Euro. The new 2020 high for Cable and the break and breach of 1.3500 could see an extension to initial 1.3680 and 1.4000 in the weeks ahead, should the Greenback continue to unwind. Key support is the 20-week moving average at 1.3100 and the 200-week moving average at the key psychological 1.3000. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 18th December 2020. FX Update – December 18 – USD stops falling, Brexit flounders on fish? EURUSD, H1 The Dollar has finally found its feet, concomitantly with global equity markets coming off the boil. Some market narratives have pinned this on news that Pfizer will under-deliver vaccine doses to the US next week, though the Moderna vaccine will reportedly win FDA approval today/Saturday. News that the US is blacklisting more Chinese companies has been in the mix, too. The wind down into the Christmas and new year holiday period may be a further factor, which can inspire investors to put on hedges, if not trim positions. The USDIndex has lifted back towards 90.0, which follows a four consecutive days run lower that culminated yesterday with a 32-month low at 89.62. EURUSD has ebbed, although only modestly, to the the mid 1.2250s. The commodity-correlating dollar bloc currencies have softened, while USDJPY has lifted back to the mid 103.00s after posting a nine-month low yesterday at 102.88. The BoJ extended its Covid measures, including increased asset purchases and a corporate lending facility, out to next September from March, while leaving the major monetary policy settings unchanged. This met market expectations, while Governor Kuroda reaffirmed the central bank’s pledge to ease monetary policy further if necessary. Elsewhere, the Pound has been in correction mode after a four-day ascent. Cable has tumbled back toward 1.3500 after peaking at a 31-month high yesterday at 1.3622, though continues to show a net gain of well over 2% from week-ago levels. UK PM Johnson spoke with the EU’s von der Leyen late yesterday, and reportedly warned that negotiations would collapse unless the EU moves “substantially.” Fishing rights remain a sticking point, while the state aid issue has also resurfaced as a difficulty, though it’s difficult to know exactly where negotiations are, and it might be that the UK government is tactically maintaining the maximum threat to leave without a deal, sensing that Brussels is genuinely worried about what an untethered UK might do. Reuters cited EU sources, meanwhile, saying that a deal is possible in the coming days, though difficult, while Ireland’s deputy PM Varadkar said both sides were edging towards a deal, and EU chief negotiator Barnier said that a deal by as soon as today is “difficult but possible.” The European Parliament yesterday demanded that a text of an EU-UK agreement must be made available by this Sunday for there to be sufficient time for them to scrutinize it before a ratification vote ahead the December-31 deadline. Later there is Canadian Retail sales and the US current account and leading index indicator ahead of the December Quadruple witching where stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures all expire simultaneously. The last big trading day for many. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 21st December 2020. Events to Look Out for This Week. Holiday-thinned staffing in Europe, Asia and the US in the end of the week ahead will severely curtail trade, though what this means for volatility is anyone’s guess. The most of the central banks maintained their accommodative policy settings so far. However the near term outlook still remains challenging but the prospect of vaccination programs in Europe, UK and US and for the UK the chances of a Brexit deal mean there are both upside and downside risks for next year, with the outlook unusually uncertain. News that the US is blacklisting more Chinese companies remains in the mix as well. Monday – 21 December 2020 PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The People’s Bank of China in this meeting should provide guidances on the next move in Loan Prime Rates. It is expected to continue to maintain flexibility in the exchange rate, stabilize market expectations, and keep the yuan basically stable at reasonable and balanced levels. Tuesday – 22 December 2020 Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The preliminary Retail sales are seen diving at -0.6% m/m in November from 1.4% last month. Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 07:00) – Gross Domestic Product is seen stable at 15.5% q/q growth in Q3 and -9.6% y/y. Like in the Eurozone, production numbers expected to remain pretty good, even though the rebound started to slow down due to the November lockdowns. Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 13:30) – A slight boost is seen in Q3 GDP growth to 33.2% from 33.1%. The revised Q3 GDP figures should still show a quarter with dramatic rebounds for residential investment and equipment spending to notably robust levels, and out-sized Q2-Q3 gyration in both exports and imports that left big Q3 gains, and hefty recoveries in consumer spending. Government spending received an initial lift in Q2 from spending with the CARES Act, though most of this spending was transfer payments that don’t enter government purchases, and we saw a Q3 pull-back in government spending that should extend through Q4 and into 2021. Wednesday – 23 December 2020 Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The preliminary trade deficit of Australia is currently at $7,456M. Personal Spending and Consumption (USD, GMT 13:30) – Personal consumption is expected to show a -0.2% headline decline in November after a -0.7% drop in October. The projected November income decline reflects a 0.6% rise in compensation, but an ongoing unwind of jobless benefits and weakness in rental and proprietor’s income, as the April income boost from the CARES Act continues to unwind. Michigan Index (USD, GMT 15:00) – US consumer sentiment climbed 4.5 points to 81.4 in the preliminary December reading. That’s much better than expected but the move back up to the 89.1 level from March has been restrained by various headwinds, with the spike in the virus and renewed lockdowns the current difficulty. Thursday – 24 December 2020 Christmas Eve – Early close for Major Markets Durable Goods and Defence orders (USD, GMT 13:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to rise 1.4% in November with a 2.9% climb in transportation orders, after a 1.4% headline orders rise in October that included a 1.4% transportation orders gain. The durable orders rise ex-transportation is pegged at 0.7%, after a 1.3% September rise. A defense orders gain is pegged at 4.2%, following a 24.0% October bounce. Boeing orders rose to 27 planes in November after two months at zero. The vehicle assembly rate is seen ticking up to 10.7 mln in November from 10.6 mln in October, versus a 0.1 mln trough in April. Durable shipments should be flat, and inventories should be 0.3%. Tokyo CPI and unemployment rate (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected stable presenting a decline at -0.7% y/y in December ex Fresh Food. The unemployment rate is also stable at 3.1% for November. Friday – 25 December 2020 Christmas Day – Nearly all major Markets closed Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 22nd December 2020. EU vaccinations & Brexit talks. Τhe Dollar has traded moderately firmer, and the Pound has drifted lower, though the US currency has remained comfortably above its Monday highs while the UK currency has remained well off the lows it saw yesterday. News that the EU has rejected the UK’s latest offer on fishing (which was a 35% reduction in the EU’s fishing quota from UK waters following a five-year transition period) weighed on the Pound. Brussels is reportedly demanding only a 25% quota reduction. Politico-Europe reported that UK PM Johnson and EU Commission President von der Leyen had a phone conversation yesterday to discuss a compromise on fish, and while the UK’s latest offer appears to have been rejected by the EU, it is positive that both sides are still talking. At the same time France and the UK are negotiating a way out of the current border disruption, with truckers to be tested at the borders. There doesn’t seem to be an agreement on the details – i.e. who pays where for what – but again, there are at least discussions on how to move forward, which helped sentiment to stabilise somewhat. It is still expected that a deal will materialise before the looming year-end deadline, given the win-win versus lose-lose stakes, and given that intense discussions are continuing, along with reports from sources close to the negotiating teams that a landing zone for an accord is visible. Another consideration that has come to light is that EU law does not stipulate that ratification by Parliament is imperative and that an agreed deal could be applied provisionally (as highlighted by the BBC’s Katya Alder). This is important to know after the European Parliament’s deadline for the text of deal to be presented by Sunday just gone was missed. As for ratification in UK parliament, members are on standby to be recalled from their Christmas recess, and a deal could be ratified in just a single day given the government’s strong majority. European stock markets rebounded after a mostly negative session in Asia. US equity index futures recouped earlier declines, and were near net unchanged as of the early London afternoon. News that the US Congress has passed the $900 bln Covid-19 relief package boosted sentiment, along with news that the EU will commence its Covid-19 vaccination program just after Christmas. EU vaccinations to start after Christmas. Regulators cleared the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine yesterday and the EU has already pre-ordered EUR 200 bln of the vaccine earlier in the year and this month also acted on the option to purchase additional EUR 100 bln that was part of the original deal. Not all of these doses are immediately available as production is slower than demand. The 300 million also won’t be sufficient for the 450 million EU inhabitants and officials will regret that the EU didn’t act on the offer in July to pre-order 500 million. Still, at that point it was not clear that Pfizer would win the race and as pre-orders were a large incentive to speed up developments, the EU decided on a wider spread, with provisional orders for more than 2 bln doses of candidate vaccines from a range of companies. Next in line is Moderna, with the European Medicines Agency set to meet on January 6 to discuss the vaccine, for which the EU has placed orders for 160 million. Still, it will take a while until vaccinations are rolled out properly – not just in the EU and if the virus mutates and becomes more infectious that also means a higher uptake is necessary to reach herd immunity. In currency market, GBPUSD stabilised after rolling the roller coaster on Monday. Although GBPUSD managed to rise again to near 1.3500 overnight, the rise is seen to be quite limited for now. Cable found support the past few hours above 1.3400 after it tested daily pivot at 1.3390. The 50-period SMA and 200-period SMA clashed at 1.3400. If daily pivot is rejected then S1 1.3266 will be a key support. Monday’s highest price of 1.3498 remains a significant resistance followed by a pivot of R1 at 1.3577. The Bulls need strong momentum above 1.3500 to maintain their dominance. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 23rd December 2020. Coca-Cola cuts staff. The decline in sales due to the coronavirus outbreak and the operations that some governments have applied to many local restaurants and entertainment venues that operate at a significantly reduced capacity, have led Coca-Cola to consider the idea of eliminating 2,200 positions of work in all the headquarters that the company has around the world. At the end of last year, there were around 10,400 employees in the United States, of which another 1,200 were cut, representing approximately 12% of the workforce cuts, while in Atlanta where the company is based, 500 jobs will be eliminated. The company had announced this plan during the summer, when it also announced that it would offer acquisitions to 4,000 workers in the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico. For the third quarter, the company’s revenues decreased 9% to $ 8.7 billion, while in the session on Tuesday, December 15, Coca-Cola shares rose 1.77% with a value of $54, $22, at the last close the company was $ 57.27 , 20.90% below its 52-week high of $ 60.13. Sales reflected an increase of -4.5%, where the company’s growth estimates for the current quarter and the next are -6.8% and -2%respectively, and the year-on-year growth of quarterly revenues decreased by 9% to 33.47B. The company could continue to experience consequences in the long term because the coronavirus pandemic may leave some side effects, such as people increasingly turning away from sugary drinks. However, when the pandemic ceases and people can feel freer to leave their homes, the consumption of beverages in restaurants may increase; in any case, Coca-Cola continues to be the leader in the non-alcoholic beverages market, therefore it can be expected that during the next few years its annual growth rate could be 6.8%. Pending its next earnings report, Coca-Cola is projected to report earnings of $ 0.41 per share, representing a 6.82% year-on-year decrease, which could lead to its consensus estimate calling for quarterly revenue of $ 8.69 billion, less than in the prior year period, while full-year earnings estimates could be $ 1.88 per share, with revenue of approximately $ 33.06 billion. Currently, the price of Coca-Cola follows an ascending channel although it presents a double top with failure of highs at its level of 54.00 very close to Fibo 78.6% at 54.79, the price could approach the Fibo level 38.2% at 51.80 to break this support, maybe pull back to it and continue to the lower supports in the 80-period SMA that is only slightly above the 61.8% Fibo level at 50.82, coinciding with the bullish guideline of the channel. Breaking these supports would end up closing the gap at the 61.8% Fibo level coinciding with the psychological level at 50.08. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Aldo Weidner Zapien, Market Analyst HF Office of Education – Mexico Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 24th December 2020. FX News Today | 24 December 2020. Wall Street rallied overnight, despite some disappointing US data. Stimulus hopes and the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines supported the market. Energy, financials and healthcare sectors outperformed, while tech issues lagged. Core European bourses were higher, with the GER30 up 1.26%, and the UK100 underperforming, adding 0.66%, though held back by a firmer Pound. Treasury yields climbed amid bearish momentum from European bonds. Thinning holiday conditions exacerbated the moves and the break of key levels added to the selloff. Gilts led a sell off in EGBs amid rumors that the UK and the EU are getting close to a post-Brexit trade deal. With Europe still firmly in the grip of Covid-19, the chance to avoid a disruptive no-deal scenario clearly would be extremely helpful, although even with an agreement no-tariff trade barriers will go up at the start of next year, which will add to an already difficult situation. UK, EU press conferences likely expected today. The timing on press conferences may slip by a couple of hours. EUR – stabilized at 1.22 GBP– spiked top 1.3570 a breath below R1 JPY – in a triangle at 103.55. PP at 103.50 and R1 103.70 CAD – gains ground again amid risk appetite and Us inventories – currently at 1.2847 AUD –Currently at 0.7590 GOLD – gains some ground to to $1879 high level USOil – climbs to 48.60 as US inventory draw, Brexit deal hopes boost risk appetite Today – Nearly all stock markets have an early closed for the extended Christmas weekend and there are no key data releases until January 4, with Brexit and virus developments the only topics to interest investors until then. Only Tokyo inflation tonight. Biggest (FX) Mover – GBPCHF (0.61% as of 09:50 GMT) – It rallied to R1 to 1.2058. Fast MAs and BB still point upwards while the asset manage to break yesterday’s peak. Technical indicators hold positive, however they are also flat suggesting a potential consolidation H1 ATR 0.00174, Daily ATR 0.01315 Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 29th December 2020. Market Update – December 29 – The final few days. EURUSD, H1 US stock futures are in the green with gains of 0.45% to 0.65% after President Trump signed the $2.3 tln spending bill that will fund the government through to September 2021 and which also includes the $900 bln pandemic relief package. Further supporting investor sentiment has been the Brexit deal — while not ideal for either side, it eliminates the hard Brexit result that was most feared. These factors, and the positive developments on vaccines, should smooth out trading over the rest of 2020, though thin holiday trading could make for some choppy price swings. All three major US markets closed at new all-time highs yesterday. Earlier, the JPY225 closed up an impressive 2.7% and closed over 27,000 for the first time since 1991. End of year portfolio rebalancing, profit taking and accounting all conspire to boost equities in the final trading days of the year. The 161.8 Fibonacci extension of the March sell-off sits at 28,800. The MACD has a rising signal line and histogram, the weekly ATR remains over the 500 point and although the RSI has been technically in the overbought range for over 6 weeks, it is still moving higher and currently trades around 78.00. The JPY225 is one of the best performing assets for 2020 of all the ones we monitor; for more details of what the long term Weekly & Monthly charts might be suggesting for the next few months, join me tomorrow in our “2021 – The Year Ahead in Charts” webinar. You can register here: In the FX markets, Dollar, Yen & Sterling dropped against most currencies, with USDJPY falling back to 103.71. EURUSD is back to 1.2250 territory and the commodity currencies also remain bid, with AUDUSD touching 0.7600 earlier, the Kiwi at the daily R1 (0.7130) and USDCAD spiking below S1 to touch 1.2807. Crude prices are up from overnight lows, amid the prospect of new supply from OPEC+ members. The front end USOIL future is currently trading north of $48.00 per barrel. Gold rotates through the daily pivot point at $1881.00. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 29th December 2020. Market Update – December 29 – The final few days. EURUSD, H1 US stock futures are in the green with gains of 0.45% to 0.65% after President Trump signed the $2.3 tln spending bill that will fund the government through to September 2021 and which also includes the $900 bln pandemic relief package. Further supporting investor sentiment has been the Brexit deal — while not ideal for either side, it eliminates the hard Brexit result that was most feared. These factors, and the positive developments on vaccines, should smooth out trading over the rest of 2020, though thin holiday trading could make for some choppy price swings. All three major US markets closed at new all-time highs yesterday. Earlier, the JPY225 closed up an impressive 2.7% and closed over 27,000 for the first time since 1991. End of year portfolio rebalancing, profit taking and accounting all conspire to boost equities in the final trading days of the year. The 161.8 Fibonacci extension of the March sell-off sits at 28,800. The MACD has a rising signal line and histogram, the weekly ATR remains over the 500 point and although the RSI has been technically in the overbought range for over 6 weeks, it is still moving higher and currently trades around 78.00. The JPY225 is one of the best performing assets for 2020 of all the ones we monitor; for more details of what the long term Weekly & Monthly charts might be suggesting for the next few months, join me tomorrow in our “2021 – The Year Ahead in Charts” webinar. You can register here: In the FX markets, Dollar, Yen & Sterling dropped against most currencies, with USDJPY falling back to 103.71. EURUSD is back to 1.2250 territory and the commodity currencies also remain bid, with AUDUSD touching 0.7600 earlier, the Kiwi at the daily R1 (0.7130) and USDCAD spiking below S1 to touch 1.2807. Crude prices are up from overnight lows, amid the prospect of new supply from OPEC+ members. The front end USOIL future is currently trading north of $48.00 per barrel. Gold rotates through the daily pivot point at $1881.00. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 30th December 2020. FX Update – December 30 – USD slips again. AUDUSD, H1 The USDIndex posted down to 89.65 earlier, close to the 32-month low from December 17 at 89.62, before recovering to 89.80 in low volume trading. EURUSD concurrently printed a 32-month high at 1.2295 before turning back to 1.2255, and USDJPY saw a nine-day low, at 103.26, and remains below 103.30. The pair’s near-10-month low, seen on December 17th, is at 102.88. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars posted respective 30- and 32-month highs against their US peer. AUDJPY and NZDJPY also saw new trend highs. The Canadian Dollar also traded firmer, but remains comfortably below recent trend highs. Oil prices remain in a consolidation, below recent near-nine-month highs. Base metal prices also remain off recent trend highs. The Pound recouped some of the declines seen over the last couple of days, with Cable lifting to a two-day high at 1.3357. The pair’s 31-month high, which was seen before Christmas, is at 1.3626. EURGBP concurrently ebbed to a two-day low at 0.9055. Intra-day the AUD is the strongest and the USD and CHF are the weakest. AUDUSD holds at 0.7650 around R2, up some 0.56%, and AUDCHF trades up over 0.69% at 0.6768 from last night’s close at 0.6718. Later today there are US pending Home Sales which are projected unchanged in November at 128.9, after falling -1.1% in October from 130.3 in September. The only other key data point is the Chicago PMI index which is expected to slip further to 57.0 in December after dropping -2.9 points to 58.2 in November. This would be a third straight monthly drop. Most of the regional PMIs have declined on the month amid the surge in virus cases and increasingly stringent lockdowns. The index was at 48.2 a year ago. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
