Date : 26th March 2021. Market Update – March 26 – USD & Equities higher as risk taking seeps back. Market News Today – USD gains on safe-haven & better econ. news, EUR & JPY pressured, Sterling, AUD & NZD higher. US stock markets higher (+0.5%), Nikkei closed +1.56%. Quarter end rebalancing & risk seeping back into markets. Good US data (Claims at 1-year lows (under 700k – this week last year 3.2 million), Q4 GDP upgraded to +4.3% and all the Fedspeak cool with the path for inflation. Gold $1730, USOil $59.60 (The Evergreen is not going anywhere soon – $10bn of global trade held up). Overnight – PBOC sees 6% growth for China in 2021, CPI in Tokyo ticks higher and UK Retail sales in line at 2.1%. Biden – 100 million vaccines in 42 days wants 200 million in 100 days, EU cases and vaccine problems persist – leaders disunited over action. Investor sentiment improved on the last day of the week and Asian stock markets were broadly higher, after a positive close on Wall Street yesterday. Vaccine optimism outbalanced reports of a climb in global Covid-19 case numbers and strengthened confidence in a recovery of global economic activity later in the year. Chinese markets bounced after being weighed down yesterday by fears of escalating US-China tensions. Stable US yields also helped somewhat. The US 10-year rate is currently down -0.1 bp at 1.63%, after another lacklustre (7-yr) auction yesterday. Topix and Nikkei closed with gains of 1.5% and 1.6% respectively and the ASX lifted 0.5%. Hang Seng and CSI 300 also closed up 1.7% and 2.2%, respectively. In FX markets the Yen weakened and USDJPY lifted to 109.27, although the Dollar fell back against most other currencies. AUD and NZD were supported. The EUR managed to recover some ground against the Dollar and is currently trading at 1.1783. Cable lifting to 1.3755 following the rebound in UK retail sales, which lifted 2.4% m/m in February after falling -8.7% m/m at the start of the year, is adding to the positive mood. The annual rate improved to -1.1% y/y from -3.7% y/y. Today – German IFO, US PCE & core PCE, personal income & spending, Uni. of Michigan (final). Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.68%) Volatile week continues, big rally from 82.50 lows yesterday. Rallied to test R2 at 83.37. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 69 and rising to test OB zone, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and both back over 0 line for first time since 18th. Stochs OB but still rising. H1 ATR 0.1228, Daily ATR 0.7285. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 29th March 2021. Market Update – March 29 – Oil gapped down on open. Market News Today – US equity futures are selling off, led by a more than 1% decline in the USA100 future, amid reports of USD 20 bln Block trades, selling of Chinese tech giants and the US media firm ViacomCBS. Asian stock markets have traded mixed and Japanese indices managed to move higher. JPN225 closed with a gain of 0.57%. The ASX was down -0.36% at the close. European futures are outperforming, but GER30 and UK100 are still down -0.07% and 0.21% respectively. Surging virus numbers in countries such as France weigh on confidence in Eurozone economies, which so far have had relatively relaxed virus restrictions. The UK meanwhile is finally easing its very strict measures, against the background of a successful vaccination campaign. In FX markets the Yen strengthened and USDJPY fell back to 109.46, although the Dollar strengthened against most other currencies. AUD and NZD began to hand back small Friday gains. AUD slipped along with Australian shares, weighed by losses in technology shares, as Brisbane announcing a fresh three-day lockdown raised fears of a slow economic recovery. The EUR remains down against the Dollar and is currently trading at 1.1777, driven more by concerns over the weakening outlook for growth in the Eurozone in light of rising COVID cases. Cable dropped to 1.3755 (200-hour SMA). Today – Data releases today focus on UK money supply and consumer credit data. Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USOIL (-2.25%) Oil prices dropped at $59.55 after the Ever Given was finally refloated, although it doesn’t seem to be clear yet when the Suez Canal will be open again. Faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 45 and MACD histogram & signal line clashed without clear indication yet whether this implies consolidation or support. H1 ATR 0.55, Daily ATR 2.62. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 31st March 2021. Market Update – March 31. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Market News Today – Treasuries are closing the quarter pretty much as they began, with the belly and long end of the market losing ground. The improving outlooks on growth, fostering a hefty reflation trade, have been boosting yields. The market has also been pricing in inflationary pressures. The 10-year was 1.7 bps cheaper at 1.72%, though rates were off early highs of 1.774% and 1.433% respectively on short covering and positioning into month- and quarter-end. Currently they are posting fractional gains as markets await more details on stimulus from US President Biden, who is set to speak on infrastructure today. Elsewhere the details on the fallout from Archegos’ collapse weighed on sentiment overnight, and after European markets closed broadly higher yesterday, we are likely to see a more cautious tone, ahead of key data. In FX markets the Yen weakened and USDJPY lifted to 110.85, although the Dollar strengthened against most other currencies, with USDIndex hitting 93.45. AUD and NZD steadied at March lows. The EUR rebounded on EU open at 1.1725 but remains off 1.1800. Cable dropped to 1.3755 (200-hour SMA). Oil prices remain supported on expectations OPEC+ will keep a lid on output, above 50-DMA for a 4th day. Gold remains low at 1,676. Today – Data releases today include German jobless numbers and preliminary Eurozone inflation data. The former is likely to show a decline in the sa jobless reading, as parts of the economy re-opened, while the latter is seen jumping sharply higher on the back of base effects, although the headline should remain firmly below the ECB’s implicit target of 2%. The final reading for UK Q4 GDP numbers and US ADP are due today, and President Biden is also due to speak. Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.54%) The asset prices spiked at 87.86 reaching R2 , extending the 6 day rally and recovering nearly all March losses. Fast MAs remain are flattened for now, with RSI turning lower below 70, however MACD histogram & signal line are bullishly crossed. These suggest near term consolidation or even pullback with the overall outlook holding positive. H1 ATR 0.126, Daily ATR 0.65. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 1st April 2021. Market Update – April 1st. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Market News Today – Stocks have moved broadly higher as investors continue to focus on the recovery. Hence stocks closed Q1 mostly firmer, with a new record high on the USA500, rising 0.46% to 13,246. The USA100 climbed 1.54% to 13,246 as big tech recovered some poise and helped the index post a 0.4% gain on the month. While for the first three months of the year, the USA30 was up 7.76% as reflation/reopening trades gathered steam. Risk appetite has been supported by vaccines, and now by expectations of more stimulus with President Biden announcing another $2.25 tln infrastructure deal. Tightened restrictions resulting from virus flareups in some parts of the world were overlooked for now, but have the potential to limit the rise in markets that have already come a very long way. Yields have also risen sharply and the Bloomberg Barclays index tracking US government bonds, reported the worst quarterly performance since 1980. In Europe, Eurozone bond markets closed higher and stocks struggled, with dovish comments from ECB’s Lagarde helping to underpin peripheral markets. The central bank head stressed once again that monetary policy will remain very accommodative for some time to come, which helped to counterbalance the uptick in inflation. In FX markets, after hitting fresh near 5-month highs overnight, the USDIndex lost some ground through in NY and Asia trade falling to 92.99 lows, but USDIndex is back on 93.30 area again this morning. Profit taking appeared to be a motive, despite mostly better data. The USDJPY was little changed at 110.71, with both gaining against most other currencies. AUD meanwhile was the main underperformer. The EUR and GBP are firmed holding into two-week low territory. The USOIL is at $59.61. Today – For today, the focus will be on confidence numbers again, with the final round of manufacturing PMIs, which are likely to confirm a further acceleration in the pace of expansion. Attention is on US Friday’s jobs report. Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCAD (-0.71%) The asset drifted to 0.7530 breaking a 3-month support level which seems also to be a neckline of a head and shoulder formation. Fast MAs aligned lower, with RSI turning higher in the OS area, however MACD histogram & signal line are negatively configured. H1 ATR 0.00125, Daily ATR 0.00696. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 2nd April 2021. NFP – Biggest monthly jobs gain since August 2020. Trading Leveraged Products is risky US March nonfarm payrolls report was a blowout! Payrolls climbed 916,000 after the 468,000 (was 379,000) jump in February and the 233,000 (was 166,000) increase in January for net 156,000 in upward revisions. It is the biggest jump since August’s 1.583 million. The unemployment rate fell to 6.0% from 6.2%. The labour force surged 347,000 following the 50,000 rebound in February. Household employment was up a hefty 609,000 after gaining 208,000 previously. Average hourly earnings dipped -0.1% but following an upwardly revised 0.3% (was 0.2%) jump. The workweek advanced to 34.9 hours from 34.6. The labor force participation rate edged up to 61.5% from 61.4%. Total private payrolls were up 780,000 versus 558,000 (was 465,000) previously (and compares to the 517,000 ADP gain). The service sector added 597,000 versus February’s 602,000 (was 513,000) pop. The goods sector added 183,000 with construction contributing 110,000. Leisure and hospitality payrolls rose 280,000, and there was a 136,000 rise in government jobs. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 5th April 2021. Market Update – April 5 – Thin volumes but US markets open later. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Market News Today – Quiet today but US is back later – Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, China & Hong Kong closed in Asia, most of Europe, Canada & Latin America all closed. FX markets range bound but USD holds gains after blockbuster NFP data (916k headline, 156k additional jobs in last 2 months), expectations for upward revisions for other March data and Q1 GDP now 4.6% from 4.3%. Nikkei225 closed up 0.8%. Week Ahead – RBA (6th) EU PMIs & FOMC Minutes (7th), ECB Minutes, Weekly Claims & Powell speech (8th), CAD Jobs & US PPI (9th). FOMC minutes and Fedspeak will be highlights in the coming week now that the jobs data is safely and bullishly out of the way. Despite the good news from the payroll report and other recent data, expectations remain that the Fed is unlikely to change its tune on the lower-for-longer policy stance and its commitment to accommodation. The FOMC minutes will be old news, though they will be scrutinized for more information on the dots that showed four members plugging in rate hikes for next year. Fed Chair Powell’s comments from an IMF panel discussion on the global economy (Thursday) will take centre stage. He’s been the most adamant in supporting the dovish stance. Also speaking this week will be voters Bostic, Evans, and Barkin, along with Kaplan and Bullard. Today – ISM Services PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index should rise to 57.5 from 55.3 in February. Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPNZD (+0.24%) rallied from 200MA on open, over 50 MA and R1 (1.9688) now. Upper BB 1.9720. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 69 and rising to test OB zone, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher but under 0 line. Stochs rising. H1 ATR 0.0024, Daily ATR 0.0144. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 6th April 2021. Market Update – April 6 – Equities Rally & USD Cools. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Market News Today – US Equities closed at new all-time highs, (Service PMIs at record, TSLA beats delivery targets – shares up +4%) USD and 10-yr yields cool. No change to rates (0.1%), bond buying or outlook from RBA, AUD unfazed. Yellen suggests global minimum tax rate, Credit Suisse announces $4.7bn hit from Archegos margin call. Overnight JPY earnings better, spending worse, CNY Services PMIs beat. UK shops pubs & restaurants open from April 12, NZ-Aus flight corridor April 19. Globally 658 million vaccines administered across 151 countries. The EU vaccine roll-out and new infections in India & Brazil remain areas of concern. RBA – Governor Lowe stressed that the “board is committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary policy conditions until its goals are achieved” and that the cash rate won’t rise “until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2-3% target range”. “For this to occur, wages growth will have to be materially higher than it is currently”. At the same time, Lowe warned that “given the environment of rising housing prices and low interest rates, the bank will be monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained”. AUD house prices increased the most since 1988 in February. Week Ahead – RBA (6th) EU PMIs & FOMC Minutes (7th), ECB Minutes, Weekly Claims & Powell speech (8th), CAD Jobs & US PPI (9th). The Dollar has found its feet after taking a tumble in thin markets yesterday. The bullish case for the Dollar remains strong, given the outsized fiscal stimulus coursing through the US economy alongside the relatively advanced states of Covid vaccination progress in the US and likelihood for further widening in the US Treasury yield differential versus peers. The March jobs report was a blowout, while the ISM services index surged to a record peak. Wall Street also scaled to new record highs yesterday. The only blot on the bullish dollar landscape is the uber accommodative stance of the Fed, which has been downplaying the scope for runaway inflation risks, although the relatively high Treasury yields, among low- and sub-zero yielding peers, will offset this. The USDIndex has lifted to the upper 92.0s after yesterday posting a 12-day low at 92.52. EURUSD has concurrently tested the waters below 1.1800 after making a 12-day peak at 1.1820. USDJPY has lifted back above 110.00. AUDUSD has dropped back from one-week highs, while Cable has tipped back under 1.3900 after earlier pegging an 18-day high at 1.3920. The Pound yesterday printed a 14-month high versus the Euro, which although occurring in holiday-thinned trading reflects the contrasting fortunes of the reopening UK economy with the re-restricted economies across the Channel. The rate of new Covid cases is now 4% of what it was at the peak seen in early January, despite a more than doubling in testing over that time, while the death rate is less than 3% of what it was at the highs. Today – EZ unemployment, ECB asset purchases, US JOLTS. Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.20%) rallied from test of 200MA on open, (0.6600) to PP at 0.6620 and over 50 MA. Yesterday declined from 0.6645 high. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 53 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher but under 0 line from open after yesterday’s fall. Stochs rising. H1 ATR 0.0008 Daily ATR 0.0046. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 8th April 2021. Market Update – April 8 – USD Remains at lows. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Market News Today – US Equities closed flat, USD (new 2-week lows) and 10-yr yields cool further. FED mins. supported lower for longer mantra, benign inflation concerns and no scaling back of support until recovery is clear. US Trade deficit at record, increasing by 4.8%, Biden offered to negotiate on 28% corporate tax rate proposals (25%?). Overnight – Nikkei closed down 0.07%, UK houses prices climbed, JPY Consumer confidence up significantly and German factory orders inline. Gold holds 1740 and Oil inventories fell more than expected, USOil trades at $59.20. Beijing now has more billionaires than any where else and bitcoin mining in the country could consume more energy than Italy by 2024. Still to come this Week – ECB Minutes, Weekly Claims & Powell speech (8th), CAD Jobs & US PPI (9th). European stock markets are broadly higher in early trades, with GER30, UK100 and the Euro Stoxx all up 0.4%. US futures are also sought after the S&P already reached another record high yesterday, and the USA500 breached 4,100 for the first time earlier today. Central banks remain eager to keep reflation fears under control and calm concern that they may be forced to rein in stimulus earlier than currently expected. However, while central bank buying will keep markets underpinned, there is increasingly also the risk of bubbles (housing is of particular concern in many jurisdictions) that could have costly consequences if and when they burst. Today – ECB minutes, US Weekly Claims, BoE’s Haldane, Fed’s Bullard, Powell, Kashkari. Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.30%) rallied from a test of 0.7600 yesterday over S1 and has moved higher today. Over 200hr MA to test PP at 0.7640. MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 53 but still rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher but remain under 0 line from early yesterday. Stochs. in OB zone and cooling. H1 ATR 0.0009, Daily ATR 0.0064. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 9th April 2021. Market Update – April 9 – USD & Yields heading for Weekly loss. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Market News Today – US Equities higher (USA500 hit new intra-day ATH 4098) USD weakness continues as 10-yr yields dip to 1.632%. Powell talked of “brighter outlook”, Bullard & Kashkari: “Fed in no rush to raise rates”. Daly – Bullish on recovery but Fed “we have to see substantial progress”. Unemployment claims missed again (744k vs 680k), counter to the big NFP beat last week. Gold rallied over $1750 and USOil under $60.00. Nikkei +0.5%. Overnight – Chinese PPI beat and at 2-year highs, AUD & NZD weaker, CHF Unemployment drops significantly but German Ind Prod. & Trade Balance both missed expectations. The Dollar has steadied after printing fresh lows yesterday, which has been concomitant with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield lifting back above 1.650% after yesterday posting a two-week low just under the 1.630% mark. The USDIndex has lifted to around 90.30 from the 17-day low that was logged at 92.0. EURUSD has concurrently ebbed back under 1.1900 from a 17-day peak at 1.1928, while USDJPY has recouped to the mid 109.00s from a 15-day low at 109.00. Cable, meanwhile, has dropped to a new two-week low at 1.3671. The Pound has at the same time sank, to a fresh six-week high versus the euro and a two-week low in the case against the yen. Some narratives have been linking the UK currency’s notable underperformance this week to the blot-clotting concerns of the Oxford AstraZeneca Covid vaccine, though the yield correction in Gilts has been more pronounced than in some peers, including Bund and JGB yields, which is likely a stronger reason for sterling’s fall out of favour. The 10-year Gilt yield is at prevailing levels showing a 1 bp bigger decline from last week’s highs compared to even the US 10-year yield. The Australian dollar has dropped quite steeply, by 0.8% in making an eight-day low versus the greenback at 0.7588, breaking through the lows of the choppy range that’s been seen this week. Softness in base metal prices and a sputtering price action across Asian stock markets have been weighing on cyclical currencies, such as the Aussie. Regarding stock markets, the MSCI All Country World index edged out a new record high during the early part of the Asia-Pacific session before drifting back. Chinese markets led equity markets lower in Asia, with perkier than expected inflation data out of China raising investor concerns of policy tightening. Today – US PPI, Canadian labour market report, ECB’s de Guindos, Fed’s Kaplan. Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.79%) stalled at 0.7660 earlier from yesterday’s rally. Reversed significantly back under PP, S1 and 0.7600, S2 0.7580. MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 26, OS but still falling, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower and under 0 line in this current hour. Stochs in OS zone and falling. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0067. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 12th April 2021. Quarterly Outlook: 2021 Q2. The start of the second quarter has been characterized by a cooling in demand for the USD caused by a rise in demand for US Treasuries as the yield also slips. The first quarter of 2021 saw a continued recovery in the US economy and improving data flow, the confirmation of President Biden’s $1.9tn fiscal stimulus bill and the proposed additional $2.25tn Infrastructure bill. The weaker Dollar narrative that greeted the new year did not materialize as the USD rallied throughout Q1 and time will tell if the current weakness at the beginning of Q2 will persist. CLICK HERE FOR THE .PDF VERSION OF THE QUARTERLY OUTLOOK The Quarterly Market Outlook offers an in-depth overview of the major events and expectations around the globe, recovery path, massive government stimulus programmes, and vaccine developments, and most importantly the shape of the economic recovery. The Quarterly Outlook is an essential reading for any trader or investor wishing to gain a thorough understanding of what is expected to take place in the market over the coming months. Click the button above for a FREE copy of our Quarterly Insights for 2021 Q2 and get an overview of some of the key events for the months ahead. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. HF Market Analysis Team Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
