How will you be voting in the EU referendum? I will be voting to leave, having been a Eurosceptic activist for a number of years, I'm just glad it has finally come to this. I'm pleased to see the chance of an Out vote is still around 30% according to the most reliable source of all BetFair.
Well a 30 percent out vote is not very high. It doesn't sound like those who want to leave the EU are going to prevail. Most people tend to stay with the status quo unless something really dramatic happens to change their minds. I hope that you get your wishes when it comes to the EU vote. I don't think you should plan on the referendum passing. Most who live there don't seem to think it will pass, but we will see what happens.
Actually it is hard to predict and it really doesn't help with Americans butting in. I have been opposed to the EU since it's inception and now people can have a say. The problem is people are subjected to scaremongering and most don't really understand the benefits of leaving. I am planning to write a piece on why we should leave and why it's logical. Most people who want to stay don't understand what the EU really does, and those are the people that won't bother voting anyhow.
What is the USA doing? This hardly gets mentioned in the USA and certainly Obama hasn´t been very vocal on the issue. I think for stability, yes the USA would probably prefer the UK stays in, but I do not think it has been pushing the issue. As a selfish American, I would prefer the Brits leave the EU. The USA gains a lot because our currency is the default currency around the world. It greatly lowers the risk of inflation and allows out gov´t to ´print money´ without it causing inflation. The bigger and stronger the EU is, the more stable the EU becomes and could become an alternative to the dollar. Some people think China is a risk in this area, but china manipulates their currency too much for other countries to be comfortable using it. The EU is set up so that the rich countries exploit the poorer countries, but then have to subsidize them in return. It is a cycle that goes back and forth in who benefits the most. But they never anticipate the immigration issue, which is the biggest problem now.
The EU has been an unneccesary additional layer of bureaucracy for too long. With the current immigration issue facing parts of Europe I don't think there has ever been a better time for the UK to leave. Having said that, it does appear that most of my colleagues and friends are split 50-50 on the issue, it certainly is very hard to predict which way it will swing. I suspect there will be quite a lot more propaganda from both sides for us to sit through before we actually get the chance to vote on it.
The New York Times did a headline piece on why the UK should remain. In any case your post shows why Americans should butt out, it's not just economy, but the laws. I have been studying the EEC/EU for 30 years, so I won't bore you with the actual facts, but consider this, what if US state laws were abolished and all states had to follow federal laws only? That is what the EU has been doing, and is trying to do do by wiping out all domestic laws. Would you vote to stay in then?
What I meant was the balance of people's voting intentions have been around 48-52 excluding undecided voters, so current odds of Betfair are 30% to leave, 70% to stay, although it's fluctuating still.
I guess you are right here, and the dollar would be boosted two-fold by the fact that a UK exit from the EU would shake the stability of both the Euro and the Pound. However, it will be the US at a loss in terms of trade, as the confusion around the rules applying to trading with the UK outside of the eurozone will probably drive a lot of businesses away. I'm personally for us to stay - UK businesses are stronger as a result of the close relationship we have with the mainland. We import the most from Germany, so to damage that relationship risks our infrastructure. The government thinks we will just bounce back from this, but last time we weren't in a close relationship with Europe in one form or another, the Empire was still intact.
