How Would The Markets React To A Trump Victory?

While it is looking more and more like a Clinton victory is on the cards, how would the markets react if Trump managed to pull it off?

 

I think that if Trump manages to win, there will be a little short term volatility similar to what we saw with "brexit". I voted for him, but I doubt he will win - it is very difficult for a Republican to win the US electoral college.

I think that longer term, we will probably be sideways at best over the next several years. And since we are perhaps a little overdue for a recession and an extended bear market, I'd wager that these things are quite likely during the next president's first term.

Furthermore, since rates have been squashed for 8 years, and trillions have been pumped into the economy via printing and asset purchases, I think it's likely that the next recession and crash will be significant - maybe or perhaps not as bad as '08, or perhaps even worse.

I'm not one of those people who buys an index fund or goes long-only on leverage on a handful of stocks and hopes and prays that the fed never raises rates again, and deludes myself into thinking that the markets will never tank again. I'm tactical, well-hedged, well-diversified, etc. I'll be looking forward to whatever the markets will bring, and will embrace whatever volatility they bring along with it.

 

Yes, indeed - shocked the hell out of me! Lots of happy people in my neck of the woods.

I watched most of the coverage on Fox Business, but I did flip around a bit to Fox, and later CNN, CNBC, and MSNBC to see the reactions of the leftists once a Trump victory appeared to be most likely.

I was a little surprised that the talking heads on Fox Biz didn't seem to understand why the futures rose from -800 to -500, and eventually higher - shorting and eventual short covering for profit taking.

Looks like the markets adjusted and appear to like it today - I've got a big wad of cash that I was looking to spend some of on what I wrongly assumed would be a big selloff if he managed to win somehow - which he did.

My biotech and energy holdings in particular are doing very well overall - as are the 2 private prison stocks I bought on that huge dip a couple of months ago - took some profits today!

 

I wasn't influenced by the media on this - I can think for myself, and my incorrect guess that the markets would sell off for a day or two was an educated guess based upon past experiences.

I'm glad overall for the average investor that the markets didn't sell off for a day or two like many of us expected - but it doesn't matter to me personally... as far as I'm concerned, a good advanced investor should be able to make some money (and not lose too much money) in any market environment.

Really easy to come online a day or 2 AFTER the election and say that you knew ahead of time that the markets would rise rather than fall short term on a Trump victory - where was the crystal ball before Tuesday night?...

 

For the first time ever the US has a president who has actually worked in the world of business, making his money before entering the Whitehouse as opposed to making it on the back of being an ex-president. As long as Trump cuts out the silly promises like the wall between the US and Mexico he might just have a chance of doing something productive.