Is there a reason NOT to buy Apple Stock? I sure can't think of one.

Discussion in 'Stock Market Forum' started by CandraLovell, Sep 21, 2014.

  1. Profit5500

    Profit5500 Senior Investor

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    Apple would not be on the losing side of the market. Even if the Apple Watch has a slow delay they would still triumph. I would assume the same case with the Iphone 6 that has the Ios 8 OS on the smartphone.
     
  2. Brad321

    Brad321 Active Member

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    The thing to remember is a good company does not always equate to a good stock buy. Good companies can be over-bought and bad companies can be over-sold. AAPL is a good company, but all the good news is priced in at this time. If you want some specifics:

    1) Carriers have been threatening to do away with subsidies for phones. Either market share or margins will suffer if this happens.

    2) Potential labor unrest in China. You don't hear as much about it anymore, but there is potential for more labor problems in China and a corresponding higher cost to produce products there.

    3) Recent price gains based on stock buyback plans and not necessarily retail or institutional interest. Institutions have been holding relatively small percentages of AAPL as the price gets frothy. The pattern recently has been selling after earnings announcements followed by a sudden rise when the quiet period ends and stock buybacks resume.

    You need to look to the future and not so much to the past. The growth story is slowing as their market segments are getting more mature. iphones are carrying them for now, but that market is getting saturated in a foreseeable time frame and the wearables aren't exactly going to be the next blockbuster innovation. The Apps and software (including payments) is interesting and could help them tread water, but don't look for any big pops in their stock price. Buy low, sell high. AAPL is high right now. Great company, but so-so stock.
     
  3. JR Ewing

    JR Ewing Super Moderator Staff Member

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    Look beyond phones.

    At ~ $14 PE, Apple is still relatively cheap.

    Netflix and perhaps other tech innovators are likely takeover targets for either Apple or Google as well - basically whoever gets there first or writes the biggest check.

    Apple has tons of cash on their balance sheet, and Icahn is in the picture.
     
  4. JR Ewing

    JR Ewing Super Moderator Staff Member

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    Ignore that dollar sign in front of "14 PE".
     
  5. valiantx

    valiantx Member

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    No man or woman, who acts as a economist, can truly predict how well or bad a stock value will become; I recommend people read these two books if you are interested in understanding how experts have no better judgment than chance:

    "Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious" by Gerd Gigerenzer, and, "The Art of Thinking Clearly" by Rolf Dobelli.

    To answer your question OP, it is always best to buy when prices are lower, not when it's continually rising because a big fall is bound to happen.
     
  6. Thejamal

    Thejamal Guest

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    Aren't Apple prices at a yearly high right now or if not an all-time high, pretty damn close to yearly highs? If you already got investments in Apple, I'd think it's a fantastic company to keep your money in, but Investing 101 for me is never invest in a company that is at it's peak. Might be a wrong strategy, but something I've stuck to doing in my short time of investing.
     
  7. Determined2014

    Determined2014 Guest

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    It is actually a good idea, Apple keeps getting better and better, they have no sign of failure anytime soon, so I believe it is a win win situation, I would say go for it.
     
  8. Brad321

    Brad321 Active Member

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    You haven't been paying attention to recent events. Three more reasons besides those already given to be wary of AAPL:

    1) The new phones are bending. They are receiving a lot of bad publicity from this and the stock is down 3.5% today.

    2) There are problems with their latest iOS 8.0.1 update and they have put it on hold while they are working on a fix.

    3) Shellshock (Bash Bug) affecting some Macs.

    There is a lot of scrambling in Apple-ville to take care of multiple events at once. The shine is off the Apple (pun intended) and they are being lampooned in the media today. That is a bigger fear than any individual issue. Once AAPL quits being the cool fad, it is in trouble as it is far from the best value out there.
     
  9. Raven82

    Raven82 Active Member

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    When you factor in the current price and Apple's dividend I would buy it but I already have it and I'm long. They haven't even begun to amp things up in China. (many of those Chinese you saw in the long lines all over the country were actually tourists waiting in line to get the new Apple phone)
     
  10. Peninha

    Peninha Senior Investor

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    In fact, the phones bending is something really surprising that is affecting the image of Apple, no one was expecting this from them.
     

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