Really you have 3. And this will be amazing, but the polls are suggesting it will happen. Trump beats Cruz in Texas, Trump beats Rubio in Florida, Trump beats Kasich in Ohio. Right now Trump is winning in Ohio and Florida, and is behind Cruz by 1 in Texas. There is a tiny pathway for Rubio. One important fact is that Super Tuesday states reward proportionally. So if Trump beats Cruz in Texas and the other southern states by just a little, and Rubio does fairly well, that should be enough to get Cruz out of the race, but at the same time keep the delegate count close enough so Rubio isn´t too far behind Trump. That is a huge stretch though. Trump keeps saying, and it has been mostly true that just because someone drops out does not mean the votes will automatically go to the other guy. But the fact remains that Trump has huge negatives, even just within the Republican Party, He really does have a ceiling. As long as Cruz is gone before we get to the winner-take-all states, Rubio still has a chance to come back. Just for some history, in 1976, Ronald Reagan did not win a single state in February, March and most of April, but was able to come back and basically tie Ford before the convention.
Biden would have lost anyhow as his public image was not high. There didn't seem to be any plan either and he knew Hilary would be running. It's a case of choosing the right battles. Who knows what he will do next, or whether she would want him on her team if she wins.
I think things are going to be a little more interesting on March 1st than people are expecting. I think most folks think Trump is going to win just about every state. He may do very well, but I think there are going to be some close calls. I think Cruz wins Texas, which will buy him a few more weeks in the race at a minimum. Wouldn't be surprised to see him win a couple of others. Rubio, I don't see where he wins. He's even an underdog in his home state of Florida.
And the problem is that even if Cruz does drop out, Cruz more than anyone has voters who are just as likely to go to Trump as Rubio... in fact, I almost think because of the anti-establishment push Cruz has been on, he will help Trump much more than Rubio if he drops out. I have been doing the same as the pundits and keep thinking ´if Rubio is alone against Trump..´.. but then you look the delegate count and it will be hugely in favor of Trump before Rubio wins anything, and it isn´t like he is going to win any states easily.
I think this race is getting more and more interesting by the day. I just don't see the Republican Party allowing Trump to be the nominee. Even though he seems like a big favorite at the moment, things can change quickly. Tonight, Donald Trump had his worst debate by far. I think when the field is narrowed down to just Cruz, Rubio and Trump, things will get really interesting.
