Oil price falling, for how much time?

Discussion in 'Commodities Forum' started by WaveWage, Sep 5, 2015.

  1. jondjacob

    jondjacob Well-Known Member

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    On a counter balance, cheaper oil prices bolsters the low income marketplace, at least a bit. It loosens up the purse strings and gives people a bit of a buffer to buy.

    As far as long term oil prices are concerned, it is my belief that the market is being disrupted, at least in economies like Massachusetts and the Northeast by Natural Gas and solar.
     
  2. WaveWage

    WaveWage Well-Known Member

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    Well, I am not sure to understand your post here. Could you go a bit more in-depth about this deal and your thoughts about it?


    According to experts, I know that they expect it to stop falling and go rising in 2017, and it should be okay for the whole 2016 year. I am not fully sure why it would sustain one year long and a half, but I find this timeline pretty possible and not bad thought. So if I had any investment on it, while watching, I would base myself on that estimation.


    The thing is, OPEC is a bit weak right now. The unity is not at their best, and yes, some Middle East countries starts to feel the problem, especially the one who did not built up cash reserve. If they did anything to try to make the price higher, it is not guaranteed that other countries will follow automatically.
     
  3. crimsonghost747

    crimsonghost747 Senior Investor

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    It's possible. Just like any other scenario. The thing is, the "experts" don't have a crystal ball either and their guess is just that, a guess. I'm expecting the price to bounce up at some point... whether or not that is tomorrow or next year doesn't really matter to me.
     
  4. Rainman

    Rainman Senior Investor

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    It was expected that China's [economic] slowdown would keep oil prices low for a while but prices are beginning to edge upwards. There's lots of speculation as to why this is happening but we've seen this in the past and the prices slide down after a little while. I think we are going to see more of these price swings for a while. When the market stabilizes that will be the time when oil prices start rising steadily.
     
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2015
  5. pwarbi

    pwarbi Senior Investor

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    I also think the oil price will start to rise aswell as I can't see it being this low for so long without it recovering. When that might be is anybody's guess but before the end of the year I think.
     
  6. Sunflogun

    Sunflogun Well-Known Member

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    I agree, oil price will go back up soon enough, but I think it's a wise to invest while it's low because it's certain that the prices will go up.
     
  7. WaveWage

    WaveWage Well-Known Member

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    That's what I start to think about: if we are that certain it will go up, and it is likely, why should we hesitate to invest inside it? We just have to wait the day it will pick up and take the profit at this point of time. Sure it may fail, I know that, but still, that's not the riskiest investment to make anyway if you invest in oil. I just wonder because, you feel overall pretty confident but you don't advise or advocate for investment inside oil.
    Now, the question is: will you invest in the oil companies, or rather in the crude oil itself? And if yes, which company?
     
  8. kgord

    kgord Senior Investor

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    I don't think it can list forever, but low prices for oil and consequently gas are certainly here for the foreseeable future. I am hoping it will help boost the economy and help the US avoid recession. It is one of the things we are going to have to watch carefully over the next few months or years. Make certain to get in on the low prices while they are here however. Plan that trip you have been putting off!
     
  9. crimsonghost747

    crimsonghost747 Senior Investor

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    If you have a view that the price will go up eventually then by all means invest in it.
    I've got both shares in oil related companies as well as an ETF investing directly in crude. The company is a long term play, probably buy & hold forever. The ETF will get sold when I feel the price is right.
     
  10. WaveWage

    WaveWage Well-Known Member

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    I think oil will avoid more US recession if United States takes even more the charge of the production itself instead of relying on the oil of Middle East. The problem is that, they have to play between having reserve in the case Middle East is doing problems, or being independent for years based on US oil, but after, they will be almost fully dependent of the Middle East because the reserves would be empty. So the game they have to play is the one hard to get it right. That's why United States doesn't export much of its oil and it is heavily restricted by law.


    Just one question: if you hold it for a long time and then sell it, I see clearly the purpose, but if you hold forever, how do you earn money on it? You count on dividends?
     

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