Oil price falling, for how much time?

Discussion in 'Commodities Forum' started by WaveWage, Sep 5, 2015.

  1. kgord

    kgord Senior Investor

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    Well gas prices are still going down, and for that I am grateful. I live in a rural area, and have to drive a lot to get places. I think it is fantastic that the prices will be down until next year some time or beyond. I seriously never thought I was going to see prices down below 2.00 a gallon again. It is just one of those things that we can enjoy when looking for quality events.
     
  2. Rainman

    Rainman Senior Investor

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    And with oil being discovered in new places, crude oil prices it appears though they might rise will eventually slide and stay down for a really long time.

    http://www.timesofisrael.com/major-oil-reserve-said-found-on-golan/
    A company drilling for oil on the Golan Heights claims to have found “significant amounts” in the plateau. Three drilling sites on the Golan have uncovered what is potentially billions of barrels of oil, enough to fulfill the Israeli market’s 270,000-barrel-per-day consumption for a very long time, the report claimed.

    Great news for Israel I suppose but the news isn't that great to those who sold crude oil to Israel.
     
  3. Susimi

    Susimi Senior Investor

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    That is some pretty good news on Israel's front, but I wonder if they will export the oil they bring up or if they will keep it for their own uses?

    I seriously hope the prices stays down for a long while though, mainly for the effect it has on the pumps.
     
  4. WaveWage

    WaveWage Well-Known Member

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    The problem is that I think the problem is the same for a lot of developed countries right now: instead of doing like the Middle East and extract as much as possible to the price the OPEL's cartel wants, developed countries knows and try to investigate ways to find oil for the independence of the country, but they keep importing the oil from Middle East even if they could sustain few years (or even decades maybe?) themselves. That's what happens with the United States, and Israeli could adopt the very same strategy: they will prove they can extract that oil, but they will also show they won't extract much that oil yet.
     
  5. Rainman

    Rainman Senior Investor

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    I suppose they wouldn't want to sell their oil because by the time they start pumping many of the other countries which also recently discovered they've got oil [Benin, Uganda, Kenya] will also have oil to sell. The oil prices would be so low that if you can't compete with countries like Saudi Arabia it would be better not to export.
     
  6. Susimi

    Susimi Senior Investor

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    It's a pretty good point, I mean there seems to be an influx lately of new plots being discovered in new places so the oil market is becoming pretty saturated at the moment. I can't really see Israel wanting to export but I can see the African nations considering it at least.
     
  7. WaveWage

    WaveWage Well-Known Member

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    Think about it on the other way: if they're poor country and they never relied on this income, they don't care that the price is that low, it's still better than nothing. To foresee, you would need to have enough resources/money currently in place, and you reject to take more money now to have even more money in the future, like in a investment. But investments usually involves having money to work in the meantime.


    About Israel, it depends of how much reserve they'll put and if they will let the oil inside the reserve, or will extract it and keep it in a easily-human-accessible reserve. They could play the trading game with the latter, meanwhile the former would perhaps allow the development of more oil in the future.
     
  8. FrankieD

    FrankieD Well-Known Member

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    I'm loving the lower prices at the gas pump and soon to be my home heating oil but of course I made sizable investments in high-income producing investments that involve a lot of oil and energy production! Doh! I just keep buying more with the dividends, so ... I should be alright since I am long-term. :)

    And yeah, good news for Israel ... I applaud being energy independent. I wish America would become so. I'm still pissed about how Bush didn't leverage the opportunity to get off of Middle East "terror oil" right after 9/11 when the political will would have allowed for it.
     
  9. WaveWage

    WaveWage Well-Known Member

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    You could follow that way, but United States is better with its reserve of oils available when needed, rather than using it too soon. As I said, even if the Middle East and OPEL is getting money from US because of that policy, in the trade, they lose the resource they have, meanwhile United States stays more in the background and keeps more at home. If you had a reserve of gold, wouldn't you prefer to keep it awhile with you in case there's an heavy problem? I would as well.


    If they even choose, because US have the power if they wanted (there's a lot of Universities on US), to try to make renewable, they would have done something: they would make the oil more useless, meanwhile they taken it from them for years.
     
  10. JR Ewing

    JR Ewing Super Moderator Staff Member

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    This is a good point. And although the whole Iraq thing didn't go so well in hindsight, it would have at least been wise of us to have pulled the oil out of the ground while we were there, and paid the Iraqis the standard 20% royalty just like oil companies do over here. Win/win.
     

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