I've been saying it for weeks now. However now the market is acknowledging my predictions regarding the EUR/USD. The longs are now 61% to 39% for the shorts, so the reversal is starting to seem eminent beware anyone who is considering buying dollars at these prices.
I held short and I'm up 150 pips. I won't be reversing the order until there is a reversal on all US pairs across the board.
I refuse to even look at a chart until February. I may even keep away from charts until Valentine's Day. By then I expect to see the Euro rebound and the Yen strengthen a bit.
The instability in Europe is what's causing this. The current situation in France is not helping either, let alone talk about Germany and Greece. 2015 is gonna be a problem year for the euro.
He who laughs last laughs best. Have you seen the EUR/USD or the USD/JPY charts today. I know I said I wouldn't look, but I just couldn't stay away.
I got burned a bit by betting against the USD in relation to the EURO. I saw the oil prices go down and I figured there was going to be less demand for dollars, but I didn't take into consideration all the instability Europe is facing, with the war in Ukraine, all sort of economic issues, Greece possibly pulling out of the Euro and other issues. Oh well, can't win 'em all
As a rule, you can expect the USD to move contrary to the price of oil. So, you had it correct. Your style of trading will dictate how seriously you should take macro economic factors. A day trader, or a scalper should never worry about things like the price of oil. Only pay attention to that sort of information if your positions are held open for several days or longer, and use weekly charts to determine your entry and exit strategy.
The USD moving contrary to the price of oil doesn't really make much sense to me. I'd expect the USD to drop because there would be much less demand for it on the international markets to be used to buy oil. Or perhaps the USD increases when the oil price drops because the US and other economies grow when the energy costs are lower. Do you have nay graphs showing the relationship between the US compared to the Euro for example and the price for a barrel of oil?
