It did work great for Iceland but the Greece situation is a bit different. They are simply out of money because the financial structure of the country is horrible, for example the percentage of government budget spent on pensions is astounding. Btw, referring to my guess that these Greece news have not been factored in 100% just yet. Notice of failed negotiations: Dax down 1.40% after open and closed at minus 1.89%. S&P 500 dropped -0.90% after open and is now at -0.40%. Athens stock index closed at about -4.70%.
In theory, that sounds like the go to plan, but due to the fact that Iceland is a small country in population, that will not work with Greece.
The other reason it won´t work in Greece is that most of the people in Greece don´t think there is a need for a radical overturn of the way things work, which is why for the past 4 years they have just been trying to scrap by and hope things turn around. They want to continue to do things there way. Iceland was in a much more revolutionary state of mind, almost radical to fix things. And this is one of the reasons Germany is losing patience with them.
and now go back and look at how many days this year the S&P was down 1%. Also to point out that despite that terrible opening on Monday, the S&P is already up 1% for the week.. so as I said.. you wait for the emotional investors to panic sell on the open on Monday, you buy a few hours after the open, ... you just made 2% in 3 days. TNP had a nice drop at the open on Monday, but not enough to make me want to buy in.
Yes, there is no doubt that after the panic the indexes will start to rise back. I didn't expect it to happen this fast though since we are so close to the deadline for negotiations. And to be honest only the S&P did bounce back, the DAX is below their Monday open (thought above their Monday low) and the ASE has dropped another several percentages during the last days. I already have some cash waiting and a couple of shares in mind that I want to buy (most of them from North America though) in case they announce the default soon. Though I might have to switch some more Euros to USD/CAD because the Euro could be taking a dip too.
http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/4307...t-now/?playlist_id=933116651001#sp=show-clips http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/4307...wing-/?playlist_id=933116651001#sp=show-clips
I think they could have raised rates this time and it would have been fine, but while they didn´t raise rates, they did hint that they could raise them more than once before the end of the year. Sorry, but I don´t listen to anything Trump says. Don´t get me wrong, he is a great ´artist´.. the way he leverages his name to make himself money.. but other than that, he hasn´t done much except file for bankuptcy a bunch of times. He is playing politics.. If the economy and stockmarket are in shambles, it is Obama´s fault. If the stock market is doing great, then there is a bubble that Obama is doing nothing about. Inflation is low, Interest rates are low, Unemployment is fine, PEs are fine. This isn´t 1999 where the largest companies were internet stocks without sales, let alone earnings. The companies leading the way now are making crazy profits and their PEs are not out of line with their growth rates. But hey, if it hard to run for President as the opposition party if you go around saying ´things are fine´..
Both vids were Carl Icahn speaking. It was nothing to do with politics and nothing really about Trump - it was about the Fed bubble. I've learned a great deal from listening to Icahn over the years, and I've made lots of money riding his coattails. He's forgotten more than anyone on this board has ever learned. Which is not to say that he's always right, but that it's more likely he's right if you or anyone else here disagrees with him. But of course some of you already know everything. Just because he agrees with Trump on something doesn't mean he's wrong or that Trump is always wrong.
Man timing the market is such a hard thing to do. Why not just have a few grand on the sidelines, then when it does correct you can jump into the stocks you want. Sure an "expert" called for a correction, but how awful would you feel if you held out and missed out on some gains during that time if he was wrong. Prob better to just dollar cost average the equities you want right now, and buy in on the way down as well.
