Tonight is the night to see if Trump and Sanders are for real. Make your guess

So right now I guess the average polls for Iowa look like this

Trump up by about 3
Sanders even with Hillary

I am going old school and saying that they will both follow the Howard Dean model where young and first-time voters don´t show up and polls overstate them.

Trump loses to Cruz by 5
Sanders loses to Hillary by 8

Both 8 point swings from where the polls have them now. Iowa almost never picks the winner ( especially for the Rs) but it does get rid of people. I think if Cruz loses by 5 more more, he is in big trouble because he will lose the first 5 states. If Trump loses Iowa by more than a couple points, it will take the shine off him and show that people were just going to see the show, not really support him. If Hillary loses by any type of real margin, Bloomberg will be entering the race tomorrow. Jeb will probably be done after tonight unless he gets a surprise 3rd place. I just don´t see him finishing 4th or 5th and then 4th or 5th in NH and being able to carry on. It looks like Rubio will get twice the establishment votes as he does.

 

I think right now Iowa is anybody's guess. I think the potential weather event will have a lot to do with whether or not people make it to the polls and vote for their candidate of choice. I am waiting to see what happens when it comes to voter turn out and how people vote. I think Trump and Hillary will be victorious, but not sure by what majority.

 

I am in complete disbelief that Hillary is still in the running with her investigations and shady past.

Jeb just needs to hang it up

People need to get over this false sense that Trump is the answer. His past is almost as shady as Hillary's and his economics are as horrible as Sanders'.

Many Hillary followers have jumped ship and jumped on the Sanders band wagon, so we will see a dilution in Hillary's polls.

 

It will be interesting to see how accurate these polls have been. Watching the news, some are still undecided, but the winners will have a small cushion as there are more to come. Trump does seem to be still ahead, but it will be a more accurate count to see by how much exactly.

 

I'm thinking Cruz has a good shot at taking the Iowa caucus. Between his ground game, the evangelical voters there, and the fact he's trailing Trump by only a few points, makes it possible. Guaranteed? Hardly and Trump is still favored to win. It will be interesting either way.

On the DNC it is even harder to call. Sanders has a shot at winning in Iowa and I will be surprised if he doesn't take New Hampshire.

 

This will prove whether Trump's poll numbers mean anything. Polls have been wrong before and I hope they were because I'd hate to see Trump win Iowa. Should he win none of the Republican candidates will be able to stop him . . . and it will be very easy for the Democrats to win in November.

 

That is a good point, Rainman. There has been some pundits positing that Trump is just all sound fury with no substance. If does badly in the early primaries, they might be right. On the other hand, if he starts picking up delegates, watch out. He could be on his way to the White House.

 

Having a little trouble believing that myself there, Troponin... I mean seriously. All this is a head-shaker to me. It's like we've lost all sense of morals and values. In my eyes (personal opinion here only) this election will come down to "the lesser of two evils." How totally disheartening.

Does ANYONE remember how to run a country for the good of the *citizens*???? Sheesh.

 

C-SPAN

If one wants to see an Iowa caucus in progress, try C-SPAN with programming beginning at 7 pm EST tonight. C-SPAN 1 and 2 will have a preview at 7 pm. 90 minutes of live caucus coverage begins at 8 pm: C-SPAN 1 and 3 at the Republican caucuses and 2 at the Democratic caucuses. C-SPAN 1 will have caucus results 9:30 pm - 1 am. Frankly, I'm curious to see a quieter, saner, coverage sans the talking heads on CNN, Fox News and MSNBC. I think C-SPAN 1 streams on their TV networks page, but I haven't bothered signing in to test it out. E Pluribus Unum.

BTW the forecasted snow event shouldn't arrive in the state until after 3 am EST. No excuses.

 

Make my guess? I personally think that there's going to be a huge surprise on the democratic side. I think that people just *assume* Hillary is going to come out on top... or stay even.

If the murmurings I've been hearing are indicative of Iowa, it's going to be Sanders by... well, more than most are expecting. I really don't know enough about it to name point spreads or anything, but I do think that a lot of people, with Hillary one of them, are going to be surprised tonight.

Republican side... yeah, no surprises there... America seems to be wanting someone who'll not allow loss of any kind... won't accept it and that seems to be Trump's MO. I do think Cruz will be closer than expected, though.