"We'll stay medium term bullish as long as 1.0608 support holds (61.8% retracement of 1.0181 to 1.1278 at 1.0600)" http://www.actionforex.com/action-insight/usdcad-outlook/usdcad-daily-outlook-20140707219593/
Hanging tough in there, taking profits when I can, mitigating with short hedges on rallies... Would like to be on the sidelines though to be honest. http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/techni...ssics_usd-cad.html?CMP=SFS-70160000000NbTwAAK Any other USDCAD traders on here?
You're starting to make me think that I should ask you to mentor me considering how much you seem to know!
Lol... wouldn't mind a mentor myself. But I am happy to offer up my ten cents worth as part of a dialogue. I know a heck of a lot more than I used to and no doubt I will know a heck of a lot more in the future. For what its worth Livvy, I would say the biggest lesson I have learned so far is 'money management'. Over leveraging is the poison chalice. As for trading, I have seen people go long whilst others short and both have come out with profits so long as it is 'managed properly'. I use the Martingale strategy, some term it 'layering'. I look for an entry point and trade small. If it goes my way I take profit and start again, if it moves against me, I add to the trade at a support/resistance point, work out a break even point, add my profit margin, set a take profit point. Rinse and repeat with ever larger trades until you wind up in profit. Danger includes, starting with too large an initial trade in which case 'margin' becomes overstressed and the possibility of running out of account funds loom. Extremely large move, unremitting trend, (as with the USDCAD at the moment). In which case it is sometimes wise to hedge a percentage of the trade to mitigate further going under water. What goes up, (in Forex), will come down. The caveat is 'when' and have you managed funds well enough to withstand it... i.e. not become over leveraged.
Sounds like a good play to me: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/analyst_picks/pair_to_range_trade/2014/07/04/Range_July_4.html
Now that's what I'm talking about... in out and bank it Hedged with a small short now and placed a buy order at 1.06382, although I would prefer it to keep on going. Better safe than sorry.
I am still suspicious of this pair but the consensus seems to be a bullish turn has taken place. The bottom has been tested repeatedly and has held and there have been significant rallies. Recent poll predicts a reversal for USDCAD, (i.e. Bullish) http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/forecast-currencies-poll/?pair=usdcad&time=2014-192 Although, unsurprisingly, not everyone agrees: My understanding is the BOC still want the CAD devalued, (hence why the $ rose in the first place). I think it is more 'weakness in the USD', than 'strength in the CAD' which is driving this pair; especially as they are now admitting the bad Q1 U.S figures were more fundamental and the 'bad weather' excuse is now being abandoned. So I have taken some small overall profit (by aggregating profit from lower entry trades whilst also closing some higher entry trades (aka losses)), thereby reducing my exposure to a level I am much more comfortable with. Will continue with same strategy until I am neutral and or the circumstances change.
The pair confirmed a very strong closing even well above the 200 days line, now support at 1,0894. Possible further strength toward the 1,10 level! The indicators of the daily chart are already above the line as well as those of the 4h one supporting further strength. The indicators of the hourly chart turned instead below the line after having formed bearish divergences on the way. We have however also a potential negative reversal situation that is limiting the upside. While above 1,0908, the 200 hours line, the pair is supported suggesting a retest of the 1,10 area. We wait for a possible correction to try again a long position.
