What happened to the Ruble?

Discussion in 'Stock Market Forum' started by Allison2021, Dec 16, 2014.

  1. JR Ewing

    JR Ewing Super Moderator Staff Member

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    I guess we'll never know for sure, but I'm skeptical of this admin having any influence over the Saudis and OPEC and having any role in the Saudi's increased production. I think the Saudis are doing it on their own. This admin is anti-fossil fuels and has gone on record in the past as wanting to increase the prices of fossil fuels to the point where they're not viable here. This admin is also weak on foreign policy and seems to only care about the various ways it can "fundamentally transform" America internally, including pushing alternative energy companies at taxpayer expense that are not viable (like Solyndra).

    Of course I'm sure the current admin is enjoying seeing US oil and gas companies get squeezed. I just don't think they'd bother to try to convince the Saudis to do this, nor do I think they'd have the influence anymore. But I could be wrong.
     
  2. petesede

    petesede Guest

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    If you really think there is any difference between the Rep and the Dems then you are hurting your ability to analyze. Everyone talks about how things will change under a certain party, but the reality is it rarely pans out. As much as everyone screamed, socialized medicine has had no effect on the stock market. Oil production is at an all time high in the USA, despite a Dem president. The Dems and the Reps are 99% the same, and the 1% that gets screamed about in the media rarely affects wall street.

    Something is going on with the Saudis, and I do think Obama had something to do with it. They have always been the one´s forcing others to cut production when prices fall, this time around they are basically make the price of oil fall even further with their public comments. My guess is that you are going to see some big defense contractors suddenly be able to sell ´new´ toys to the Saudis once the Russia situation is over, maybe the next generation of planes.
     
  3. JR Ewing

    JR Ewing Super Moderator Staff Member

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    I don't think there's anything wrong with my ability to analyze.

    Again, I disagree about Obama getting in bed with those filthy rich oilmen - it goes completely against his ideology and that of his base. He doesn't even want the keystone pipeline here. He's seen as weak and doesn't have much influence on anyone he can't control via the US mainstream media. I guess we'll never know for sure - but unless or until then, I refuse to give credit where credit is not due.

    As for there being NO difference between Dem and Repub, you're wrong. And Obama is not like other Dems such as Clinton who were moderate and more practical than ideological. Many of these new taxes and tax increases directly impact me, my business, and my clients.

    http://www.atr.org/full-list-ACA-tax-hikes-a6996


    I'll concede that much of the Republican political establishment has gotten soft and enjoys the perks of big govt as much as the Dems do. I also think some of this softness within the Republican ranks is due to their fear of the MSM and the admin itself, which is known for going after "enemies".

    http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/irs-scandal/

    It's still the Dems who were 100% behind Obamacare that 100% of Republicans opposed. It's the mainly the leftists among the Dems pushing wealth redistribution, increasing taxes, attacking fossil fuels, stirring up racial tensions unnecessarily, etc. I don't see any Repubs doing this. But what usually happens is that the Repubs cave in and give him whatever he wants.

    But it's obvious that most are not happy with the way things have been going, particularly in the last couple of years. You can try to tell me all day long that politics don't matter at all, but I've been around long enough to know that sometimes they do. You'll see in the future what kind of damage this radical has done, but the signs are already there - 18 trillion in debt, half the nation in poverty and on food stamps, enemies no longer fear us, allies no longer trust us, 90 trillion in unfunded liabilities, debt to GDP out of control, etc.


    The stock markets are up because interest rates are low and the fed has printed so much money and pumped so much into the economy. This is in spite of things like increased regulations and taxes, socialized medicine, and energy permits on federal properties being very hard to come by in recent years. The oil boom has been on private lands, something the government has nothing to do with. Obama in fact shut down offshore drilling for a while a few years ago.

    http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/268625/obama-s-costly-gulf-moratorium-jim-adams


    He has nothing to do either way with the price of a barrel of oil or with the Dow being at 18k.
     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2015
  4. JR Ewing

    JR Ewing Super Moderator Staff Member

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    Take away the Fed stimulus and a different picture would have emerged and will likely emerge somewhat in the future as well. I guess Obama has been convincing the Fed to do what it has done the last 6 years too, huh? :D
     
  5. JR Ewing

    JR Ewing Super Moderator Staff Member

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    Besides higher taxes, I'm also paying far more for health insurance in the last couple of years. I liked my plan but couldn't keep it.

    Regs on my business and businesses some of my clients own have increased.

    Obama wants to raise the gasoline tax as well.

    I don't think he's actually in any way responsible for the Fed's actions (at least I hope it hasn't come to that), but all of this fed intervention is likely to cause hyperinflation / stagflation eventually IMO.

    He's like a militant Jimmy Carter on steroids. I cannot take seriously a POTUS who would take Al Sharpton into his inner circle.
     
  6. petesede

    petesede Guest

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    Republicans and Democrats both want big government, they just want to spend it on different businesses. You want to see how quickly a Republican is against small gov´t? Start talking about cutting defense spending. Start talking about cutting aid to multi-billion dollar family farmers (sic). The whole concept of small gov´t is a myth that very few Washington politicians actually want. What they do want is to eliminate spending on things they don´t like so they can increase spending on things they do like.

    As far as OPEC and US Presidents are concerned, I doubt there is any real preference for them if the Pres is Dem or Rep. I do think that ideologically Obama is anti-oil, but I believe the real concerns about Russia are over-riding that when it comes to what the administration is doing in regards to the price of oil. It is kinda a bitter pill to swallow, but for right now, I think geo-politically they know they need the price of oil to tank. But in the longterm, and the same with OPEC, I think they realize there is a payoff beyond just beating Russia.. lower oil prices now means less spending on infrastructure and exploration in the long term. Which is how I imagine Obama plays it off to his core supporters. ( hey guys, if we tank oil prices now, these guys are going to stop building refineries for a long time).

    And just as an aside, I used to be Rep until I realized that they really don´t want less spending, they just want spending to be done on things they want. And meh, if that is the case, I would rather government handout be spent giving medical care to poor people rather than spending billions on meaningless wars and causing hatred around the world. Either way the same money is going to be spent and overspent, but one of them is just waste, and one of them does harm to our country. About 50,000 young men and women became permanently disabled because of Iraq.. does anyone still think that war was worthwhile.. ISIS is more a threat to the USA than Saddam ever was. 10k USA soldiers dead, 50k disabled permanently... probably 200k Iraqis dead, all with families that now hate us even more... and it cost us a lot more than Obamacare of free cell-phones ever will.
     
  7. JR Ewing

    JR Ewing Super Moderator Staff Member

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    Again, I did say that most of the Repubs seem to want big govt as well these days.

    As for Iraq, in hindsight it doesn't seem to have been such a good idea. But you're wrong to blame it on the Repubs - it was something both sides wanted and voted for.

    I am a proud veteran who spent 4 years in the military. I can tell you that government-run healthcare is a disaster.

    I'm in favor of a strong foreign policy and national defense. I'd rather see us maintain a strong presence throughout the world rather than spend trillions on socialist programs that redistribute wealth and reduce our quality of life, standards of living, productivity, etc.

    Those nations who hate us or who have large numbers of religious fanatics who hate us have always hated us and always will. Read the Koran. And it's human nature for men to want to conquer and rule over one another, get one up on one another, take one another's resources, etc. Putin has punked Obama before.

    I'm still very skeptical that Obama and even his bosses and champions of climate change Valerie Jarrett, Tom Steyer, and George Soros are controlling the price of a barrel of oil. :D

    Maybe you have evidence to support your claim?

    One reason I'm so skeptical is because he's known to brag and take credit for any victory big or small, no matter what he may have had or not had to do with it. He takes credit for the US energy boom on private lands, in fact. I'm almost certain that he'd be crowing about it, and that we would have heard about conversations he's had with the Saudis, or trips he's sent John Kerry on. Kerry has in fact gone to Africa and told starving villagers not to do much farming because it contributes to global warming. :D

    Sorry, I don't buy it. Do you have any links to support your theory?
     
  8. JR Ewing

    JR Ewing Super Moderator Staff Member

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    I'd love to fault Obama with the price of oil being so low, since a good chunk of my net worth and a fair amount of my income come from my interests in substantial proven oil reserves on lands owned by me and also by me & my family. But I know better.
     
  9. Onionman

    Onionman Senior Investor

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    It was a bit of a perfect storm for Russia. Collapsing oil prices, increased tensions against Ukraine, and a continued backlash against Putin. In this kind of environment there's no reason to assume that the Ruble can hold up versus the dollar. 2015 is going to be a difficult one.
     
  10. petesede

    petesede Guest

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    Russia doesn´t release treasury information the way the USA does, but I can imagine they are printing rubles until the machines overheat. I have an american friend who lives there, and she keeps telling me all the different types of businesses that are no longer accepting the Ruble, or are only accepting it a very poor conversions because they know by the time they can spend it, it will be worth much less.

    With all the crazy laws Putin has been putting out the past 6 months, I would imagine that very soon there is going to be some law about using US dollars as your main currency in your stores.
     

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