Why the Next Stock Market Crash Will Happen Any Day Now

Discussion in 'General Trading Discussion' started by Mr. Prediction, Mar 13, 2014.

  1. Mr. Prediction

    Mr. Prediction New Member

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    There is overwhelming evidence that the next stock market crash could strike any day now, and a growing number of investors are turning to a noted economist to prepare for the “unthinkable.”

    The message is clear: Despite the Dow hitting pre-crash highs, companies reporting positive earnings, and the financial media saying we are looking at the “beginning of a new bull market,” the stock market is on the verge of another historic collapse.

    The evidence is in a group of charts released by some of the biggest names on Wall Street.
    Individually, these charts may not mean much. But taken collectively, they are simply too much for any investor to ignore.

    The first chart shows that the annual S&P 500 consensus earnings-per-share is expected to come in much lower than originally thought. Estimates started out near $125 in January 2012, and have now fallen 10% to only $112. Despite the warning sign of falling earnings, the S&P continues to climb.
     
  2. Gomer

    Gomer Well-Known Member

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    I agree I think the run is done, now time to make me some money!
     
  3. Mr. Prediction

    Mr. Prediction New Member

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    Yes it looks like the market is going to turn down again today.
     
  4. JR Ewing

    JR Ewing Super Moderator Staff Member

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    I've been pretty bearish for quite a while now. But I think an approach that is more bottom-up than top-down is far better for most investors. It's generally less risky over time to find good companies, buy them, buy more of them as they become cheaper / more of a value, and eventually scale out of them as they become less of a value or their growth slows - or even dump them completely when fundamentals change.

    I do like to keep a few bucks in a broad market short ETF as a hedge, and also keep some in gold and other commodities, and use puts as well.

    When markets crash, many companies with great fundamentals become very cheap. It's quite a challenge to predict tops and bottoms in the broad markets, and it can get quite expensive for the small investor to constantly jump in and out of things, see short positions rocket to the moon, etc.
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2014
  5. Mr.Robinson

    Mr.Robinson Member

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    Crashes do happen but the reason(s) for the crash are important.
    Small conflicts between nations, politicians, explosions etc cause a temporary fall which may be profitable for investors with strong nerves.
    On the other hand, a large scale crash leading to a crisis would involve many variables and would be quite hard to predict.
    My take on this is that the stock market tends to behave opposite to the general populations' thoughts when an "adequately" large number of people believes/writes in one way.
    So if we're expecting a crash, a rally may come forward unexpectedly, vice versa...
     
  6. ursell

    ursell Guest

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    I don't keep up with the stock market so when it crashes what happens does everyone lose money?
     
  7. bms00

    bms00 Member

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    I can see saying the market might be stagnant for a while, but I don't see any fundamentals in the economy that would indicate a crash. What evidence do you have besides your expectation that earnings will come in under the consensus expectations? Even if that does happen for one quarter, that wouldn't be enough to crash the market.
     
  8. leahcim132

    leahcim132 Guest

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    When it goes down, I am going to buy a lot. Not too much of course. Just enough for me to make some money.
     
  9. PvtParts

    PvtParts Guest

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    On November last year, China announced that buying US Treasury Bonds isn't beneficial anymore. I believe that this is a very important matter because it might indicate that soon many other countries will follow. I think that it's a sign of the beginning of the end for the petrodollar.
     
  10. PvtParts

    PvtParts Guest

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    The US stock market? The whole thing is in a incredibly huge bubble! And I don't think this matter is disputed anymore at this point. Don't you guys notice? The Federal Reserve has recently been printing currency like it's the end of the world. That I think is the one thing that's causing the stock market to escalate to the heights we observe today. But this can't go on perpetually. It's actually a bigger bubble than what caused the market crash of 1929.
     

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